Daily Fundamental Dose

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – December – 2018

Hello Traders,

While Fed’s refrain to respect global economic risks was already taking toll on investors, U.S. President Donald Trump’s refusal to approve intermediate funds to government and renewed tensions between US & China damaged trade sentiment and the US Dollar further on Thursday. Mr. Trump took another dramatic step by turning down stopgap funding bill until senate approves his Mexican border plan, which in-turn spread the risk of government shutdown on Saturday of policymakers continue remaining at loggerheads by Friday night. Elsewhere, the U.S. Justice Department accused two Chinese officials of taking part in stealing intellectual property and other crucial information from various companies and few government agencies.

With the negative vibes from trade, monetary policy & American government threatening investor optimism, safe-havens like JPY, Gold & CHF were mostly in demand. Not only risk-safe assets but AUD & NZD also recovered some of their earlier losses as weaker greenback favors commodity-basket; though, CAD couldn’t ignore Crude’s drop on sluggish outlook for future demand. Moreover, EUR took advantage of USD’s dip whereas GBP benefited from upbeat UK Retail Sales but the pound’s gains were limited after BoE sound worried about ‘no-deal’ Breixt.

Having witnessed criticism from their American counterparts, China turned red on world’s largest economy during early Friday and demanded withdrawal of any such allegations relating to IPR theft & hacking. The same were separated from trade by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin but market players seemed less agree on it and weighed brighter chances of a failed trade-talks between the U.S. & China.

Looking forward, in addition to trade-war fears & political pessimism, upcoming announcements of UK, US & Canadian GDP, together with U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE & Personal Income-Spending, are likely to offer a busy Friday.

The UK & the U.S. GDP are less likely to deviate from their earlier estimations of 0.6% & 3.5% while Canadian GDP may rise to +0.2% from -0.1% prior. Moving on, U.S. Durable Goods Orders may also recover previous contraction of -4.3% with +1.6% while Core Durable Goods Orders can advance to 0.3% from 0.2%. Moreover, US Personal Income & Spending are both expected to soften to 0.3% against their previous releases of 0.5% & 0.6% respectively. Additionally, Core PCE Price Index, Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, might improve to +0.2% from +0.1%.

Considering lesser likelihood of a peace between the US policymakers, not to forget among US-China leaders, present market fears aren’t expected to fade soon, which in-turn can continue dragging the US Dollar downwards. However, upbeat economics may help restricting the greenback’s plunge.

Alternatively, Brexit fears are again at the forefront and weaker UK GDP may prove more harmful for the GBP. Furthermore, commodity-linked currencies, safe-havens & EUR can continue being beneficiaries without performance unless US Dollar regains its strength.

Technical Talk

Not only USDJPY but USDCHF also bounced off the 200-day SMA and registered pullbacks in direction to 111.60 and the 0.9900 mark respectively. Should prices manage to surpass their near-term resistances, the 112.00 and the 0.9940 may reappear on charts whereas extended downturns beneath 110.90 & 0.9865 SMA numbers can fetch the quotes to 110.00 & 0.9815 levels in the earlier order. On the other hand, GBPNZD struggles around 1.8630-10 resistance-turned-support, breaking which it can drop to 1.8500 and the 1.8380-60 but an upside clearance of 1.8820-30 may propel the pair to the 1.8970-80 and then to the 1.9000 psychological mark.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – December – 2018

Hello Traders,

Sentiment in financial markets remained fragile during last-week as worries over US-China trade-war, fears of Fed’s rate-hike to take toll on economic performance and U.S. Government shutdown pushed investors to risk-safety. With this, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to forgo previous gains and mark negative weekly closing while safe-havens like CHF, JPY & Gold registered rallies. The EUR, on the other hand, benefited from the greenback’s plunge despite witnessing no upbeat economics and the GBP also ignored Brexit pessimism & BoE’s dovish remarks by taking advantage of welcome stats. However, the commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, failed to please buyers as broader negativity concerning future demand and Sino-US tussles over IPR theft joined hands with sluggish details at home. Moving on, the Crude prices slumped as doubts on demand-supply mismatch grew stronger amid consensus of global economic slowdown and increasing US stockpiles.

As if aforementioned catalysts were small to dismantle traders’ optimism, speculations that the U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to oust Fed Chairman Jerome Powell resulted additional damages to market performance by the weekend. Though, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin & White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney came forward to appease investors by turning down any such actions or intentions from the President.

Having witnessed slew of negative news, trade-moves remained mostly silent around early-Monday as comments from American policymakers and holidays at major bourses gave little room for activity. Though, the U.S. market is still open today and with issues relating to trade and government shutdown looming large, chances of active trading hours around later day seem brighter.

In case of its trade-talks, China recently said vice-ministerial talks has been on between world’s two largest economies in order to have lesser differences when they meet in mid-January. Alternatively, U.S. maintains its allegations of IPR theft on two Chinese representatives and demand hard efforts from the dragon nation to please Mr. Trump before they confront him.

Talking about government shutdown, majority of the U.S. officials are off the work due to Mr. Trump’s refrain to sign intermediate funding bill unless policymakers approve funds for his Mexican border demand. Some among the White House have already conveyed that the issue may stretch a bit longer till new government takes control of lower house, January 03, and the same can raise more bars for the fund approval which is highly criticized by Democrats.

Other than U.S. developments, Brexit is also a live case where Theresa May is struggling to get British politicians behind her proposal before it appears for parliamentary vote. Herein, lesser leaders are likely to support her plan unless EU rectifies demand, which the region has already turned down.

Hence, while holidays at major bourses and lack of big releases can continue trade-sentiments, U.S. developments can play their role and offer intermediate moves this Christmas-eve.

Technical Talk

AUDUSD’s refrain to slid beneath 0.7020 can’t be considered as a sign of its strength even for a short-term unless the pair crosses 0.7085 trend-line resistance, which in-turn continue highlighting the importance of 0.7020 & 0.7000 supports for the pair traders. In case the pair surpass 0.7085 upside barrier, the 0.7125 and the 0.7150 may mark their presence on the chart whereas 0.6960 is likely being on Bears’ radar past-0.7000 break. Same is the case with NZDUSD that reversed from 0.6700 but yet to conquer the 0.6750 hurdle to confront 200-day SMA level of 0.6830. As a result, the 0.6700 and the 0.6665 can keep their place intact on sellers’ favorite-list. Furthermore, GBPCAD has to provide a daily closing beyond 1.7225-30 resistance-confluence in order to aim for the 1.7310 and the 1.7420 numbers to north otherwise its pullback to the 1.7160, the 1.7050 and then to the 1.7000 consecutive supports can’t be denied.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 26 – December – 2018

Hello Traders,

China’s efforts to please Trump administration before January meet seem falling short of restoring investor confidence during holiday season as lack of economics & political tumult at the U.S. continue challenging trade-sentiment and drag the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down. While US President Donald Trump kept showing his uneasiness with Fed’s policy measures and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin trying hard to assuage rising anxiety, partial shutdown of the U.S. government and speculations of darker days for global economy pushed traders to safe-havens like JPY, CHF & Gold. It should also be noted that EUR & GBP received prize without performance on greenback’s decline but AUD, NZD & CAD couldn’t avoid fears of Sino-US trade-war as the While House still wants China to accept its role in IPR theft. On the other hand, Crude remained despicable to market-players considering a higher toll on energy demand due to expected future economic weakness.

Even if it was Christmas-day, Mr. Trump didn’t allow FOMC members to take a sigh of relief and tweeted that the Fed will “get it pretty soon.” As a result, concerns grew that the Republican leader may prove early-week Bloomberg news right which mentioned Mr. Trump is in the process to take measures against Fed Chair Jerome Powell. With little on hand, due to year-end inactivity, earlier pessimism surrounding a cold war between US political & monetary authorities, the first of its kind, hurt the USD, Crude & commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD.

Contrast to previous moves, commodity-basket witnessed pullback during early Wednesday after China released new rules promising to treat all companies equally and removing some more barriers for their trade-deal with world’s largest economy. Alternatively, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda also sought to boost JPY further as he said Japanese mechanism is strong enough to resist global stock market shocks.

Looking forward, US S&P/CS Composite House Price Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index are the only releases scheduled for publish when majority of EU, Canada & UK are busy celebrating year-end holidays. The S&P/CS Composite House Price Index may soften to 4.8% from 5.1% prior but the Richmond Manufacturing Index could recover some losses if matching 16 forecast against 14 previous-mark.

Although economic platter indicates mixed outcomes, uncertainty on how long US Government shutdown will last and whether Trump administration shall continue challenging monetary policy & China could keep dominating immediate trade-sentiment and push investors close to risk-safety. With this, the US Dollar is likely having some more room to downside before regaining its favorite spot in the minds of traders’ fraternity.

Technical Talk

In spite of registering failure to surpass 100-day SMA, short-term ascending trend-line, at 1.1380 now, seem limiting the EURUSD’s immediate declines, which if broken can fetch the quote to 1.1330 & 1.1300 supports. Alternatively, the 1.1425 and the 1.1445-50 are likely nearby resistances for the pair to conquer in order to aim for 1.1500 round-figure. Further, USDJPY dropped beneath 200-day SMA and the 110.00 could soon appear on Bears’ radar, breaking which 109.70 & 109.30 might please them. Should the quote takes U-turn from present levels, the 110.95-111.00 area including 200-day SMA, can continue restricting its near-term advances prior to fueling prices to 111.55-60 resistance-zone. Moreover, GBPNZD heads to another important upside hurdle, namely the 1.8970-80, before targeting the 1.9000, the 1.9060 & the 1.9150 consecutive numbers to north but the pair’s dip below 1.8730 highlights the importance of 1.8630-15 region for one more time.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 27 – December – 2018

Hello Traders,

Not only easing pressure at Sino-US trade front but White House confirmation that Fed Chair’s job is 100% safe and Mastercard details showing upbeat U.S. holiday shopping also triggered relief rally on Wednesday. As a result, rejuvenated risk-sentiments and trade-resumption after brief Christmas holidays at major bourses, not to forget few second-tier economics, can offer active markets to investors during the year-end period.

Let’s start discussing what happened in recent days prior to jumping on fundamentals concerning rest of the week’s details/events.

Fed’s Failure To Placate Pessimists Dragged USD Downwards

Even after announcing a quarter percent hike to benchmark Fed rate and promising two such rate-lifts during 2019, the Federal Reserve couldn’t please the pessimists weighing such actions to take toll on global economic growth. Other than FOMC’s refrain to respect Donald Trump’s repeated pushes off the rate-lifts, U.S. government shutdown & Sino-US tussles also disappointed greenback buyers and registered a weekly negative closing of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). With the USD’s decline, EUR benefited without performance but the GBP respected welcome Retail Sales and GDP with a rise in currency value. However, AUD, NZD & CAD couldn’t enjoy such liberties as allegations of IPR theft on China and sluggish data-points at home dragged these currencies downwards. It should also be noted that Crude prices stretched their south-run forward as growing doubts on demand-supply mismatch and steadily increasing US output threatened energy traders. In all these, JPY, CHF & Gold remained as market favorites due to their safe-haven appeal.

After All The Negativity, It’s Finally A Relief That Played Its Role

Having witnessed tumultuous week, early-days of the present week were also not too good as Trump’s hate for Fed, refrain to sign intermediate spending bill for government re-start and frequent changes at White House team continued troubling investors and hurting the USD. However, it was Wednesday when markets finally received some good news when White House adviser Kevin Hassett assured of Fed Chair’s job and news circulated that U.S. delegates will reach China in two weeks to discuss much awaited trade deal. Adding to that, Mastercard report showed upbeat U.S. buying during holidays season.

While recent surge in the USD & renewed risk-sentiment pleased investors on Thursday, the US Dollar is still down on a weekly closing basis as Mr. Trump is still avoiding intermediate spending bill unless he gets the fund for Mexican border. With this, the EUR & GBP are also up and so do the safe-havens like JPY, CHF & Gold. Though, NZD & CAD still bear the burden of weakness at commodity front, including Crude, but China’s efforts to please US with new norms for companies and some other amendments to their policies helped AUD recover some of their latest loses.

What Next?

Although markets welcomed overnight news from the U.S., uncertainty surrounding US-China trade-deal and government shutdown, not to mention slew of weaker stats from China, can still challenge trader fraternity when major bourses are up after Christmas holidays. At the data-front, U.S. CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI & Pending Home Sales, coupled with Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI, Unemployment Rate & Preliminary Industrial Production, can play their roles as well.

Starting with scheduled stats for Thursday, U.S. CB Consumer Confidence could weaken to 133.0 from 135.7 while Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI is expected to soften to 0.9% from 1.0% and the Preliminary Industrial Production might contract with -1.6% versus +2.9% prior growth. Additionally, Japanese Unemployment Rate bears the consensus of no change from its 2.4% mark.

Moving on to Friday, U.S. Chicago PMI & Pending Home Sales are likely to close the week with forecasts favoring 61.2 number for Chicago PMI vis-a-vis 66.4 earlier and a 1.1% growth for Pending Home Sales compared to -2.6% previous contraction.

In case of politics, Brexit issues are calm unless Theresa May announces any new trick to please parliament members to vote in her favor during January Brexit voting. Alternatively, US White House is still trying to convince investors that Donald Trump isn’t in a process to oust Fed Chair. Moreover, Democrats are in no mood to release tax-payers’ funds for Mexican border but the U.S. President Donald Trump is also not ready to accept any intermediate funding till his border demand gets approved. Furthermore, China is finally realizing importance of a trade-deal with the U.S. as recent stats from world’s second largest economy have started showing impact of a trade-war. Though, their US counterparts are less cordial and continue to allege China over IPR theft case, which in-turn may create problems for future deal when they face Beijing in January.

To sum up, recent relief from the U.S. and opening of major bourses can offer active trading sessions during year-end period but the present positivity can still be challenged by US government shutdown and chances of no-deal between world’s two largest economies.

Additionally, scheduled economics are also likely not to add much strength into the respective currencies and hence highlight safe-havens till any more positive news flow from the U.S.

Technical Analysis

Break of fortnight long ascending trend-line signals brighter chances of the EURUSD’s dip to re-test 1.1300 and 1.1260 support-levels but 1.1215 might confine the pair’s further downside. On the contrary, the 1.1400, the 1.1445-50 and the 1.1500 seem immediate resistances to watch during the pair’s U-turn. Likewise, GBPUSD also confirmed short-term “Rising-Wedge” break and may drop to 1.2530 and the 1.2475 rest-points but an upside clearance of 1.2690 can again fuel prices to the 1.2745 resistance and then to the 1.2810 number to north. Further, USDJPY defied 200-day SMA level of 111.00 and could revisit the 111.80 and the 100-day SMA level of 112.40 whereas 110.30 & 109.80 might please sellers under 111.00.

Meanwhile, AUDUSD still has to close beneath 0.7020 in order to aim for the 0.7000 round-figure and 0.6900 mark comprising 61.8% FE until then 0.7080 & 0.7150 can keep being buyers’ favorites. NZDUSD also slid below 50-day SMA and may test the 100-day SMA level of 0.6665 ahead of highlighting the 0.6600 support while 0.6750, including 50-day SMA, and the 0.6830 barrier comprising 200-day SMA could act as strong resistances for the pair. Moving on, USDCAD is likely to challenge 1.3620 for one more time, breaking which the 1.3640 and the 1.3800 can flash on Bulls’ radar with 1.3560, 1.3500 and the 1.3440 being adjacent supports to play their role in case of price reversal. At last, USDCHF bounced off 200-day SMA and could aim for 50-day SMA level of 0.9980 before diverting market attention to 1.0000-10 territory whereas 200-day SMA level of 0.9865, followed by 0.9820 and 0.9790-80, might restrict the quote’s near-term declines.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – December – 2018

Hello Traders,

Wednesday’s risk-on rally fall short of pleasing investors on Thursday as renewed tensions at Sino-US trade front joined hands with sluggish U.S. consumer confidence & brighter chances of an extended government shutdown at the world’s largest economy. As a result, the USD had to forgo previous gains while JPY, CHF & Gold held their favorite spot in the minds of buyers. Market started responding steepest decline of the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence in 40+ years and then the news broke that Trump administration is planning to release an executive order declaring national emergency during 2019 barring American companies from availing any products of China’s giant technology firms like the Huawei and the ZTE. Additionally, White House is still at loggerheads with Democrats and the government shutdown is less likely to be resolved before first week of 2019 as majority of policymakers are off for holidays.

With the renewed pessimism concerning trade-deal between world’s two largest economies, AUD, NZD & CAD declined whereas EUR & GBP took advantage of the greenback’s dip. Furthermore, Crude prices also failed to stretch earlier pullback forward after API registered a hike in oil inventories and doubts over the strength of global economy signal weaker demand in future.

During early Friday, China took another step to amuse trade watchers by saying they have made concerted efforts to end the U.S. standoff and may take some more steps to get the trade-deal. At the data front, Japan’s Industrial Production shrank lesser than expected but Retail Sales & Unemployment Rate disturbed the optimism.

Looking forward, U.S. Chicago PMI & Pending Home Sales are the only data-points left for entertaining short-term traders wherein the Chicago PMI may flash 61.4 mark against 66.4 but the Pending Home Sales could grow by +0.9% from -2.6% prior contraction. Moreover, weekly release of US Crude Oil stockpile might offer intermediate strength to energy basket if meeting the -2.9M consensus versus -0.5M prior.

In case of politics, U.S. Republicans may undertake their last-minute step to get Mexican border funds in order to restart the government failing to which can postpone the efforts till Wednesday due to year-end breaks. Also, Trump administration might praise China as the nation has recently taken many steps to get closer to a good trade-deal; though, they are still far from negating their role from IPR theft and the same can push White House policymakers to criticize the dragon nation.

Hence, few second-tier data-points and on-going political plays at the US, be it concerning trade-deal or government shutdown, can offer some more market moves, mostly in favor of the safe-havens, before welcoming 2019.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD’s recovery from 1.2615 may find it hard to remain for long unless conquering the 1.2685 and the 1.2740 resistances, which in-turn highlights the importance of 1.2615 & 1.2600 supports for the pair traders. On the other hand, USDCAD also needs to justify its strength by maintaining its strength beyond 1.3640 in order to aim for 1.3800 else chances of witnessing a pullback to 1.3560 & 1.3500 can’t be denied. Moving on, NZDCHF could take a U-turn from either the 100-day SMA level of 0.6590 or the medium-term support-line figure of 0.6570, if not then 0.6540 & 0.6500 might please the sellers. Alternatively, the 0.6700 and the 0.6730-35 resistance-confluence comprising 50-day & 200-day SMAs, are likely numbers to appear on the chart during the quote’s reversal.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 02 – January – 2019

Happy New Year Traders,

Final week of 2018 couldn’t please the greenback Bulls as on-going worries concerning US-China trade-war and the U.S. government shutdown joined sluggish economics to flash another negative weekly closing of the U.S. Dollar Index (I.USDX). While USD was bearing the burden of political pessimism and doubts over Fed’s future moves, the EUR & the GBP took advantage of this decline without registering any big positives but commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD stretched their downturn further as troubles for their largest consumer, China, played their roles. Further, JPY, CHF & Gold marked heavy gains as market fear favored safe-havens whereas Crude couldn’t stop its south-run due to expectations of demand-supply mismatch.

At the start of 2019, Asian investors witnessed lack of confidence after disappointing Manufacturing PMIs from China carried signals of darker future forward. Not only downbeat numbers from China but sustained close of U.S. government and recent threats from North Korea and China also offered additional push to risk-off moves.

Looking forward, the U.S. President Donald Trump has finally called representatives of both the parties to negotiate a deal that could re-open government offices but he still remains firm on his demand of funds for Mexican border, which in-turn might continue leading bargain hunting at the parliament. On the other hand, North Korean leader said the nation would take a “new path” in nuclear talks if White House doesn’t soften economic sanctions while Chinese President lauded their technological advancements and showed readiness to confront future trade negotiations.

At the economic front, it seems a day of Manufacturing PMI as Germany, EU, UK, Canada and US are all lined up for releasing final reading of their respective Manufacturing PMI numbers. Among them, German & EU stats are less likely to deviate from their 51.5 & 51.4 readings but the UK reading could threaten GBP traders if matching 52.5 forecast compared to 53.1 prior. Moreover, the Canadian Manufacturing PMI may follow the suit by printing a lesser number than 54.9 but the U.S. Final Manufacturing PMI could remain unchanged at 53.9.

Even if most of the scheduled Manufacturing PMIs are expected to push present risk-off sentiment forward, that can hurt the commodity basket and USD, Mr. Trump’s ability to re-start U.S. government offices may help the greenback to recover some of its latest losses during the first trading-day of 2019.

Technical Talk

AUDUSD struggles around 0.7020 & 0.7000 supports, breaking which it can drop to 0.6930-25 whereas an upside clearance of 0.7080 may trigger the pair’s pullback moves to 0.7110 and then to the 0.7150 resistances. In the same way, NZDUSD also flirts with 0.6700 & 0.6690 rest-points that can fetch it to 0.6630 while 0.6730 & 0.6750 could keep restricting the pair’s near-term advances. On the other hand, EURNZD has to provide a daily closing beyond the 1.7110-25 resistance-region, comprising 200-day SMA, in order to aim for the 100-day SMA level of 1.7210 & the 1.7260-70 resistances otherwise the 1.7000 psychological mark & the 1.6880 support might regain sellers’ attention.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 03 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

First trading day of 2019 proved to be good for the US Dollar as optimistic comments from the Donald Trump concerning trade deal with China, stock market & North Korea pushed investors to the greenback. However, JPY & Gold didn’t lose their allure as overall risk-sentiment remained confined due to on-going U.S. government shutdown and White House policymakers’ refrain to praise China’s recent reforms to ease the trade-tussle. Adding to pessimism was sluggish manufacturing numbers from the dragon nation, Canada, EU & the U.S. As a result, commodity-linked currencies like AUD & NZD had to extend their previous south-runs but CAD benefited from Crude’s pullback on news of Saudi Arabia’s planned export-cut. Moving on, the EUR couldn’t ignore weaker Manufacturing PMIs while GBP failed to take advantage of exceptional surprise from the same PMI thanks to Brexit uncertainties.

During early Thursday, global market witnessed a ‘flash-crash’ in the pairs connected to AUD & JPY. The slide wasn’t backed by any big news but lack of liquidity during Japanese holidays was assumed to trigger big algorithmic orders. Some also argued that a cut in growth forecast from Apple Inc. could also be considered as a reason for the bloodbath.

In addition to AUD & JPY, rest of the financial markets also faced heavy selling pressure and the same favored safe-havens like JPY, CHF & Gold while negatively affecting the commodity basket, including Crude. The US Dollar, however, remained more or less on the positive side mainly due to its risk-safety status but there was no respite for the EUR and the GBP.

Even if markets are gradually recovering from early-day plunge, UK Construction PMI, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & ISM Manufacturing PMI are still left to perform their duties, not to forget political plays surrounding Sino-US trade, U.S. government shutdown and US-North Korea tension.

The UK Construction PMI is expected to register the 52.9 mark against 53.4 prior whereas U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI may weaken to 57.7 from 59.3 but no change is likely to take place in 179K figure of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

In case of politics, Mr. Trump couldn’t get his $5 billion for Mexican border passed during Wednesday’s parliamentary meet without which he isn’t ready to restart the government. On the other hand, White House officials continue to undermine Chinese efforts to please the U.S. President which in-turn may give rise to rough talks when representatives from world’s top two economies gather to discuss trade-deal. Moreover, Mr. Trump said he received a “great letter” from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that signals good relations between both the countries. He also showed eagerness to visit the hermit kingdom for the second time to strengthen the ties.

Hence, while early-day volatility and on-going political pessimism can continue helping the safe-havens and hurt commodity front, chances of USD’s recovery can’t be denied if scheduled numbers post welcome outcome & Mr. Trump agree to restart the government. Alternatively, GBP is less likely to benefit from the PMI unless any positive news from Brexit erupts.

Technical Talk

USDJPY needs to surpass 107.90 in order to overcome its ‘flash-crash’ woes and revisit the 108.80 & 109.50 otherwise pair’s slide beneath 106.70-50 support-zone might not hesitate fetching it back to the 105.60, the 105.30 and then to the 104.75 numbers to south. Further, USDCHF also has to conquer the 0.9935 trend-line barrier if it is to aim for 0.9960 & 1.0005 else 0.9790 & 0.9760 can come back on the chart. At last, NZDCAD may bounce towards 0.9170, 0.9220-25 as not only 0.8995-90 support-zone, incl. 50-day SMA & upward slanting TL, but 200-day SMA level of 0.8900 & 0.8830-20 rest-region also stand unbroken.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

Following early-day volatility, news of Monday’s vice-ministerial trade meeting between world’s two largest economies and U.S. House of common’s act of passing a spending-bill to restart the government officies gave a sigh of relief to global investors. As a result, the risk-on sentiment pulled AUD, JPY & commodity-linked currencies back from their prior moves and dragged the US Dollar Index downwards. Adding to the USD’s weakness were mixed stats & concern of no rate-hike from the Fed after Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said to try holding the rate-lift pattern for some time. On the other hand, sluggish UK Construction PMI & Brexit worries took their toll on GBP but EUR benefited from the greenback’s decline. It should also be noted that even after reversing some of the previous gains, traditional safe-havens like JPY & Gold remained on the positive side at the day end mainly because of the USD’s dip. Additionally, Crude prices managed to extend their earlier recovery and head towards best week since September as signs of US-China trade-deal and OPEC’s readiness to cut output pleased energy traders.

At the start of Friday, market players were all concerned for the U.S. and Canadian employment report in addition to comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. Also, UK Services PMI & EU Flash CPI can also offer some intermediate trade opportunities.

Forecasts suggest, 50.7 print of the UK Services PMI against 50.4 previous and the 1.8% growth of EU Flash CPI compared to 2.0% earlier. Further, Canadian Employment Change is likely to soften to 6.8K from 94.1K prior and the Unemployment Rate may rise to 5.7% from 5.6%.

In case of U.S. jobs report, the broadly watched Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to rise to 177K from 155K and Average Hourly Earnings could also shift upwards to 0.3% from 0.2% but no change may take place in 3.7% Unemployment Rate.

Coming to the Powell’s appearance at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. The Fed Chair will be accompanied by previous leaders of U.S. Federal Reserve, namely Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke. The interview will include round-table discussion and questions can be asked by the press. Herein, Mr. Powell is less likely to maintain his December optimism considering latest disappointments from the global economic calandar and repeated threats from Donald Trump. Hence, any signal from the Fed Chair conveying rising growth risks and tighetening financial condition could show no or fewer rate-hikes from the central-bank and harm the USD.

At the political front, Mr. Trump is yet to approve the House of Representatives’ bill and he is less likely to respect any solution that doesn’t allow him $5 billion for Mexican border. However, the U.S. President stood ready to discuss alternative methods to limit migration and drug problems through the American boarder joining Mexico with fellow politicians during Thursday. Hence, chances are high that the 12 day long government shutdown may soon end.

To sum up, while economics and government shutdown could offer positive signals to the US Dollar, likely downbeat comments from the Fed Chair may keep hurting the greenback. In case of other currencies, like CAD, GBP & EUR, scheduled data-points don’t portray any big economic improvements and can result weakness.

Technical Talk

Unless clearing the 1.1420 barrier, the EURUSD can’t aim for the 100-day SMA level of 1.1480, followed by 1.1490-1.1500 resistance-region, which in-turn highlights the importance of 1.1300 support-line and the 1.1260 rest-points. Alternatively, GBPUSD may recover to 50-day SMA level of 1.2775 before targeting the 1.2850 while the 1.2570, the 1.2500 and the 1.2425 can continue restricting the pair’s near-term downside. At the end, GBPNZD could again confront the 1.8970-80 area, breaking which it might head to 1.9120 & 1.9230 resistances but dip beneath the 1.8830 support-line indicates the quote’s drop to 1.8740 & 1.8625-15 support-zone.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 07 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

In spite of witnessing upbeat employment stats, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t ignore third consecutive weekly decline as Fed Chair’s measured response to rate-hike calls and Donald Trump’s refrain to re-start government offices unless getting funds for Mexican border pushed investors off the greenback. While USD was despicable to markets, JPY & Gold maintained their favorite status due to doubts over Fed’s future rate-hikes and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Government shutdown for which Mr. President has already showed inclination to announce national emergency to have a border near Mexico. Even if risk-off ruled trade sentiments till mid-week, news that Sino-US policymakers are to discuss trade-deal in the current week offered a bit of strength to investors’ risk-bearing capacity afterwards and fueled commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD to north. Not only this, Crude also registered noticeable gains on expectations of receding tension between world’s two largest economies and output cut from major producers. At the end, the EUR had to avoid weaker than forecast CPI based on US Dollar weakness but welcome Services PMI helped GBP to recover majority of its previous losses and post a positive weekly closing.

As U.S. diplomats reached Beijing for vice-ministerial level trade-talk with their Chinese counterparts, global trade watchers gave more emphasis to updates from the dragon nation and buy commodity-linked currencies during early-Monday. Additionally, fears of pro-longed U.S. government shutdown and likely softer pace of Fed rate-lifts provided intermediate moves to market.

Moving on, while updates from China concerning trade-deal and Trump’s struggle to get funds for Mexican border will be in limelight for quite some time, resumption of Brexit debate at UK parliament ahead of Jan. 14 vote on proposal can also play background music to the momentum listeners. At the data-front, Canadian Ivey PMI & U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI could get intra-day traders’ attention.

Having received mixed outcomes of German Factory Orders & Retail Sales, the Canadian Ivey PMI is expected to offer additional strength to the CAD if matching 58.1 consensus against 57.2 prior. Though, the USD might continue being weaker as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI could flash 59.6 number compared to 60.7 earlier.

Given the lesser likelihood of scheduled data-points’ ability to please greenback buyers, disappointments from White House relating to government shutdown, coupled with likely rough talks between Chinese & U.S. policymakers, could keep hurting the USD. As a result, traditional safe-havens like JPY & Gold may rule the trade-sentiment for some more time but commodity basket can witness pullback if discussions at Beijing don’t start well.

Technical Talk

Three-month long upward slanting support-line, at 1.3340 now, is likely a tough downside barrier for the USDCAD sellers, which if broken highlights the importance of 50-day SMA level of 1.3310 and the 1.3280 rest-points. Should the pair takes a U-turn from present levels, the 1.3400 & the 1.3445-50 seem nearby resistances to watch. Alternatively, USDCHF is expected to stretch its weakness a bit more towards 0.9815 & 0.9785 ahead of aiming the 0.9735 support-mark whereas the 0.9860, the 0.9900 & the 0.9920 resistance-line could confine the pair’s immediate upside. Further, GBPAUD’s sustained trading beneath a month-old TL & 100-day SMA signal brighter chances of its extended downturn to the 50-day SMA level of 1.7770, the 1.7740 and then to 1.7650 supports while 100-day SMA level of 1.7945, the 1.8000 round-figure and the support-turned-resistance line at 1.8100 might keep limiting the pair’s near-term advances.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 08 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

Not only disappointing print of the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI but dovish comments from the Atlanta Fed President and upbeat statements concerning Sino-US trade-talk by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross also triggered market optimism on Monday and dragged the U.S. Dollar Index (I.USDX) further to south. With the investors turning towards riskier assets, JPY stretched its earlier south-run but the Gold refrained to dip on USD’s weakness.

While greenback had multiple reasons to decline, ranging from government shutdown to likely fewer Fed rate-hike, EUR & GBP took advantage of the same to register gains. On the other hand, AUD, NZD & CAD benefited from positive signals that the U.S. & China may reach to a trade-deal that could be “reasonable” for both the parties while Crude prices also extended its advances based on welcome comments from White House representative at Beijing & also on expectations of widespread supply cuts by the OPEC+ alliance.

During early-Tuesday, traders gave more emphasis to sluggish AU Trade Balance and chances of the U.S. government reopen by trimming some of their immediate bets on commodity-basket. The same resulted into greenback’s recovery ahead of the U.S. President’s TV appearance scheduled during later day. Additionally, news that EU-UK policymakers are discussing ways to postpone Brexit date from 29-March played its role in fetching the EUR & GBP southwards.

At the economic calendar, Canadian Trade Balance and U.S. JOLTS Job Openings may offer intermediate trade opportunities. Herein, Canadian Trade Balance could trigger the CAD’s profit-booking if matching -2.1B forecast compared to -1.2B prior whereas lesser expected change in the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, to 7.07M from 7.08M, might not prove too critical to deviate market moves.

In case politics, White House leader’s TV talk could help the USD recover some of its earlier losses if Mr. Trump manages to please investors with positives on government shutdown. However, the same moves may remain tepid given the President praise progress on Sino-US trade-talk and criticize Fed rather than giving more clues on government restart. Alternatively, Brexit issues are again creating problems for the GBP & the EUR before parliaments voting on Theresa May’s plan begin on Jan.14.

To sum up, recent market optimism has to conquer the Brexit & U.S. shutdown barriers in order to sustain for long, else renewed downside of commodity-basket and rise of safe-havens can’t be denied.

Technical Talk

EURUSD again took a U-turn from 100-day SMA level of 1.1480 and may revisit the 1.1400 & 1.1360 supports while an upside clearance of 1.1480 still needs to conquer 1.1490-1.1500 region to aim for the 1.1580 & 1.1610. Same can be said about the GBPUSD that requires a D1 close beyond 50-day SMA level of 1.2775 to confront the 1.2850 & 1.2900 round-figure, also comprising 100-day SMA. If the Cable fails to cross 1.2775, 1.2700 & 1.2660 may regain Bear’s attention. At the end, CADCHF’s recent recovery can’t convey the pair’s strength unless it surpasses the 0.7415-20 resistance-line & 0.7465-75 horizontal-area, which in-turn keep weighing the 0.7340-35 zone & 0.7300 as supports.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 10 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

With the dovish outcome of FOMC minutes, Trump’s refrain to re-open partial U.S. government and an end to three-days of Sino-US trade-talk already playing its role, investors are likely to concentrate more on the upcoming economics in order to determine near-term market moves. Among them, Fed Chair’s speech, US Inflation, AU Retail Sales & UK GDP are likely to grab the headlines.

Let’s start with recent Forex performance and then move to fundamentals concerning each one of the aforementioned catalysts.

U.S. Pessimism Dragged Greenback Further Downwards

In spite of registering upbeat jobs report, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) failed to avoid third weekly declines as cautious statements from the Fed Chair and on-going government shutdown, not to forget optimism at US-China trade front, pushed traders off the greenback. While USD was weak, the EUR ignored soft CPI details and GBP took proper advantage of welcome Services PMI numbers. The commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, enjoyed optimism at trade front and so does the Crude. Furthermore, JPY & Gold also stretched their previous rallies on downbeat USD.

Risk-On Hurt The US Dollar

As if last-week’s declines were not enough, the US Dollar continue its southward trajectory during present week. However, this time it has more to do with optimism at trade-talk and market rush to risk-on than the U.S. fundamentals. During their three-day visit to China, U.S. delegates conveyed upbeat messages and showed likelihood of a trade-deal. The dragon nation also played its part by sending some high-ranked officials to meeting and promised importing more of US agricultural goods, energy and manufactured products. This boosted commodity-linked currencies and Crude further to north. In addition to risk-on, Trump’s refrain to respect any government re-start offer unless getting funds for Mexican border and additional doubts on Fed’s future rate-hikes, as conveyed by FOMC minutes, also offered weakness to the U.S. currency.

The EUR could gave little importance to French & German numbers while GBP’s gains were muted as Theresa May continue to struggle at parliament debate on Brexit before the votes on January 15. In all this, JPY & Gold couldn’t stop their rise as they have negative correlation with the USD. It should also be noted that early-Thursday release of China’s inflation numbers triggered pullbacks of commodity basket and linked currencies.

Back To Economics

Having impacts of government shutdown, trade-talk and FOMC minutes, investors are likely to put more emphasis on Thursday’s public appearance of the Fed Chair before diverting their attention to Friday’s AU Retail Sales, UK GDP & US CPI.

Starting with the Fed Chair’s speech, Mr. Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of Washington DC and audience questions are also expected. The central-banker recently sound a bit worried about his future rate-hike projections during last Friday’s speech, which in-turn raises probabilities that Mr. Powell can continue being data-depended than to praise the rate-hikes.

On Friday, AU Retail Sales aren’t expected to post any change to its 0.3% earlier growth and so does the UK GDP that may remain at 0.1%. Though, the British Manufacturing Production, at the same day, could surge to 0.4% from -0.9% prior and the Goods Trade Balance might also expand to -11.4B from -11.9B.

Coming to U.S. Inflation numbers, additional weakness in price pressure is expected as CPI YoY may dip further to 1.9% from 2.2% and can show -0.1% monthly figure compared to 0.0% earlier. Further, the Core CPI could reprint the 2.2% & 0.2% marks on YoY & MoM basis.

At the political front, White House is trying to push China to prove their commitments of trade before expecting a good trade-deal while Mr. Trump walked out of meeting with Democrats by terming it “waste of time”.

Hence, scheduled data-points are less likely to offer any good results to the US Dollar and there are negatives at the political front that may keep damaging the currency. Due to this, commodity front and the safe-havens may take advantage of the USD weakness but economic challenges for the EU & Brexit uncertainty can trigger profit-booking of the EUR & the GBP.

Technical Analysis

Sustained break of the 1.1480, comprising 100-day SMA, together with 1.1490-1.1500 region cross, speaks loud of the EURUSD’s strength to target the 200-day SMA level of 1.1640 and then the eight-month old descending TL, around 1.1680. Should prices take U-turn from present levels, the 1.1420 and 1.1375, including 50-day SMA, can entertain sellers after challenging them with 1.1480. Alternatively, GBPUSD still has 100-day SMA level of 1.2895, followed by 1.3030 resistance-line to break in order to justify its recovery otherwise its pullback to 1.2660 & 1.2600 can’t be denied. Moving on, the USDJPY failed to extend its recent up-moves past-109.10-15 and is likely to revisit the 107.50 & 106.60 supports while break of 109.15 can have 109.30, 109.80 & 110.30 as consecutive resistances to confront.

On the other hand, AUDUSD is struggling with 50-day & 100-day SMA confluence, near 0.7180-90, breaking which it can rise to 0.7240 & 0.7280 whereas 0.7120 & 0.7070 seem adjacent rests to watch during the pair’s reversal. In the same way, NZDUSD also questions the 200-day SMA level of 0.6805, which in-turn could escalate the pair’s advances to 0.6850 & 0.6885 but its slide beneath 0.6755-50 might reprint 0.6700 on the chart. Further, USDCAD has 100-day SMA level of 1.3165 and the 1.3070 200-day SMA mark as nearby supports; though, pair’s successful clearance of 1.3325, encompassing 50-day SMA, may once again fuel it towards 1.3350 & 1.3385. At the end, USDCHF is taking rest on eleven-month old ascending trend-line, at 0.9710, break of which can drag the quote to 0.9680 & 0.9630 while 0.9790 & 0.9840 might confine the pair’s immediate upside.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 11 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

Although FOMC members’ dovish comments & Donald Trump’s readiness to announce national emergency to get funds for Mexican border trimmed some of the greenback gains on Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index (I.USDX) posted a daily positive closing after ECB officials said better to wait before tweaking monetary policy. The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, together with Vice Chair Richard Clarida, highlighted the importance of patience prior to going on with rate-hikes whereas Mr. Trump said he is forced to use national emergency rights in order to build Mexican border & restart government. While support for easy monetary policy pleased equity traders, news that China’s Vice Premier Liu may visit Washington to discuss trade-deal further fueled the market optimism. As a result, AUD surged heavily on trade related positive news but NZD & CAD had to bear the burden of USD’s rise.

Moving on, the GBP couldn’t avoid loss of two parliamentary votes to Theresa May ahead of January 15 voting for Brexit and the EUR dropped on downbeat statements from the ECB. Additionally, risk-on sentiment dragged traditional safe-havens like Gold, JPY & CHF downwards but the Crude benefited from upbeat trade-deal news & Saudi Arabia’s pledge to keep the energy market in balance.

Even if the US Dollar managed to register a daily hike yesterday, Friday seems to have a bad start for the currency as risk of no rate-hikes and extended government shutdown pushed investors away from the greenback. Not only this, welcome environment at Sino-US trade-deal also escalated demand of risky assets, like AUD.

With the Fed policymakers’ signal to take every step cautiously towards future rate-lifts, today’s headline inflation numbers from the U.S. grab market limelight. Forecasts suggest additional weakness in price pressure as CPI YoY may dip further to 1.9% from 2.2% and can show -0.1% monthly figure compared to 0.0% earlier. Further, the Core CPI could reprint the 2.2% & 0.2% marks on YoY & MoM basis.

Other than US Inflation, UK GDP, Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance are some additional stats that could make analysts busy for the day. UK GDP isn’t expected to alter from 0.1% monthly reading but the Manufacturing Production could surge to +0.4% from -0.9% and the Goods Trade Balance might also expand to -11.4B from -11.9B.

While upcoming Inflation reading may amplify rate-hike dissenters’ voice, pessimism surrounding government shutdown and chances of the US-China trade-deal can push the USD towards fourth week of losses and help the commodity front. On the other hand, the GBP could continue being victim of Brexit problems but the EUR, JPY & Gold can take advantage of the greenback’s decline.

Technical Talk

Given the AUDUSD successfully trade beyond 50-day & 100-day SMA confluence, the pair can challenge the 0.7240 & 0.7300 resistances while downside break of 0.7180 may reprint 0.7150 on the chart. The USDJPY, however, can continue signaling 108.00 & 107.50 to comeback as quotes unless clearing 109.10, which in-turn may trigger the pair’s recovery to 109.40 & 110.00. At the end, NZDCHF targets the 0.6740-45 area, breaking which the 0.6790 & the 0.6820 can entertain buyers whereas 0.6655-50 & 0.6600 could please counter-trend traders during the pair’s pullback.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 15 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

During last-week, Fed policymakers’ refrain to commit two rate-hikes for 2019 joined hands with optimism surrounding Sino-US trade-deal & sluggish stats in order to provide consecutive fourth week of losses to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). Not only USD but EUR also declined as ECB’s “wait & watch” tone, coupled with disappointing economics from Germany & France, dragged the regional currency downwards. Further, the GBP benefited from upbeat data-points & greenback’s weakness while commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, took advantage of positive news emanating from US-China trade front. While risk-on sentiment played its role to propel ex-USD currencies, the JPY had to trim some of its latest weight but Gold remained on plus side due to US Dollar’s dip. Moreover, the Crude prices also pleased energy traders as likely trade-deal between world’s two largest economies and OPEC+ alliance’s readiness to cut production questioned demand-supply mismatch.

Last-week’s improvement in risk sentiments couldn’t entertain investors on Monday because sliding export numbers from China & renewed concerns of trade-tussles between the U.S. & the dragon nation once again favored safe-havens. With this, JPY & Gold maintained their status as market favorites but Crude, AUD, NZD & CAD had to take the losses. Additionally, US Dollar also dropped further after Fed Vice Chair reiterated his recent comments doubting over future rate-hikes and the U.S. economy entered 24th day of partial shutdown, longest in history.

At the start of Tuesday, the decision-day for Theresa May’s Brexit proposal, traders were more concerned about whether British PM will be defeated with wider margin in the parliamentary voting for her Brexit plan or not, given the almost certain case that she’ll will not win over other UK politicians’ support. As a result, the USD started recovering some of its latest losses, which in-turn proved negative for the safe-havens and commodity-linked currencies. Moreover, Crude price also witnessed short-covering on hopes that China might be pushed hard to win over US trade relations in order to avoid any big misfortunes in future.

While uncertainties surrounding global growth, U.S. government shutdown, trade-deal & Brexit are likely to play their roles, US PPI & ECB President Mario Draghi’s testimony also become important for analysts to observe. The U.S. PPI may follow recent inflation numbers and can register -0.1% contraction against +0.1% prior growth but Mario Draghi might not avoid the risk to global economy and readiness to wait before following Fed’s path.
The Brexit vote counts will start coming out during later part of the day and President Trump doesn’t seem in mood to soften his Mexican border demand. Alternatively, China may take some more steps towards a trade-deal with the world’s largest economy.

Given the brighter chances of Theresa May’s defeat at parliamentary voting for Brexit, focus now turns on to how badly her plan will be voted down and what happens next? Will there be another referendum? Will opposition seize the opportunity to topple the PM? etc.

Even if trade-deal developments may offer intermediate relief to market players, overall pessimism concerning Brexit, slowing global growth and the U.S. government shutdown could hurt the USD & the GBP while helping commodity basket & traditional risk-safeties, like JPY & Gold.

Technical Talk

On the day of Brexit Parliament Vote, the GBPUSD is again challenging 100-day SMA level of 1.2895 to aim for the 1.2930 and the 1.2955 resistances, breaking which four-month old descending trend-line, at 1.3000, seem crucial for the Cable buyers. Though, failure to post a Daily closing above 1.2900 round-figure might not hesitate fetching the quote 1.2850 & 1.2810 rest-points. On the other hand, NZDUSD successfully crossed 50-day & 200-day SMA confluence and may target 0.6890 & 0.6920 during further advances. In case prices slide under 0.6795-90 SMA confluence, the 0.6770 & the 0.6750 can become sellers’ favorites. Moving on, the EURGBP struggles between the 0.8915-0.8895 region, comprising 50-day & 100-day SMA, with 0.8940-50 & 200-day SMA level of 0.8855 acting as follow-on levels to watch if the pair offer either side break.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

Even if US PPI registered downbeat readings and one more Fed official stressed patience for rate-hikes, not to forget on-going U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. Dollar Index (I.USDX) still managed to post a daily positive closing as ECB President conveyed dovish message and Theresa May witnessed humiliating defeat at Brexit parliament vote. While EUR couldn’t bear the burden of Draghi’s statement that regional economy is weaker than expected, the GBP reversed earlier losses after Mrs. May used her persuasive skills to regain British confidence and overcome the oppositions’ “No Confidence” motion. Alternatively, commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, and the Crude benefited from China’s readiness to announce heavy monetary measures to ward off the trade-tussle but the JPY & the Gold had to respect market optimism for China & USD strength by marking declines.

During early Tuesday, everyone on the floor was concentrating on UK as not only voting on the “no confidence motion” but BoE Governor Mark Carney’s testimony & British CPI are also up for the day. Other than UK, comments from Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer that last-week’s Beijing meet failed to produce any structural outcome and China’s another effort to fuel the economy by monetary policy propelled commodity-linked currencies and the US Dollar. Furthermore, disappointing stats from Japan also played their role and entertained intermediate traders.

To begin with, Carney’s testimony is less likely to convey any upbeat messages considering political drama at home; though, recent stats, like Services PMI & Retail Sales, have been positive and could help the central-bank to avoid pessimism. Turning to CPI, the inflation figure may soften to 2.1% from 2.3% and can continue pushing the BoE to announce further measures.

In case of UK House of Commons’ Government Confidence Vote, it is expected that Mrs. May will survive another challenge to her position as PM due to her appeal of getting another backstop deal with EU if British people trust the present government. Such statements, together with indication to have cross-party solution of the Brexit problem, has also pushed some of her counterparts to vote against the motion and let May struggle with EU leaders for one more time.

Given the present drama over the Brexit & likely chances of Mr. Carney being a cautious, together with sluggish CPI, the GBP may trade negative prior to parliament vote results, which if announced in Theresa May’s favor could propel the Pound to north.

For other majors, political pessimism may support the traditional safe-havens but likely improvement in greenback and commodity front can confine the JPY & Gold’s upside.

Technical Talk

Symmetrical triangle confines USDCAD moves between 1.3230 & 1.3290 with brighter chances of its up-moves to 1.3310 & 1.3350 whereas a downside break of 1.3230 likely reprinting the 1.3200 & 1.3180 on chart. On the other hand, USDCHF needs to surpass 0.9900 trend-line barrier in order to aim for 0.9950 & 0.9990 else its dip to 0.9830 & 0.9800 can’t be denied. Moving on, the GBPJPY also has to justify its recent recovery by conquering the 139.70-90 resistance-zone on a daily closing basis to target the 140.85 & 141.50 numbers otherwise 139.00 & 137.50 may comeback as quotes.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 17 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

While British politics have already entertained momentum traders and market optimism seems coming back after upbeat US bank results, the leftover consumer-centric details from UK, US, Japan & Canada are still standing tall to offer magnified volatility during rest of the week.

Let’s discuss recent headlines before jumping on forecast part.

Fed’s Cautious Messages, Government Shutdown & Risk-On Dragged The USD

With the Fed policymakers reiterating wait & watch mode before going ahead with further rate-hikes, disappointments with U.S. Government shutdown & positive developments at the Sino-US trade front dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down for fourth consecutive week. Not only Federal Reserve officials but some among the European Central Bank (ECB) also preferred not to promote their monetary policy tightening, which in-turn hurt the EUR, while GBP took advantage of upbeat data-points at home. Commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD, together with Crude, praised progress on trade-deal between world’s two largest economies and China’s readiness to pump more money to ward of trade-protectionism. Though, the same upbeat environment triggered risk-off and negatively affected the JPY while Gold remained firm on USD’s dip.

Euro-zone Weakness Favored Greenback’s Recovery

Although US economics like PPI & Empire State Manufacturing continue pushing Fed rate-hike expectations away, the US Dollar witnessed recovery during the present week as soft data-points from the Euro-zone, coupled with ECB President’s dovish testimony, diverted traders to greenback and hurt the EUR further. The GBP maintained its strength even if Theresa May witnessed humiliating rejection of her Brexit plan in parliament voting but overcome the opposition Labor party’s no confidence vote. In all these, the JPY carried its last-week downturn forward as USD’s strength cut traditional risk-safety demand but the Gold refrained to decline as political uncertainty surrounding UK, U.S. Government shutdown and trade kept it as market favorites.

Improvement in US Dollar and latest challenges to US-China trade-deal blew upbeat sentiment at commodity front, which in-turn triggered declines on AUD, NZD & CAD. Though, Crude prices maintained their strength as decline in US inventories and OPEC+ alliance’s readiness to balance global energy market pleased traders.

What Next?

Looking at the economic calendar, EU Final CPI, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Japan’s National Core CPI can provide intermediate trade opportunities on Thursday whereas start of G20, UK Retail Sales, Canadian CPI and U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could close the week on Friday.

Forecasts suggest dip in EU Final CPI to 1.7% from 1.9% but U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index could rise to 9.7 from 9.4 while Japan’s National Core CPI might soften to 0.8% from 0.9%.

On Friday, UK Retail Sales can disappoint GBP buyers with -0.8% contraction compared to +1.4% earlier growth whereas the Canadian CPI may remain unchanged at -0.4% mark. Further, the U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment bears the consensus of 97.0 versus 98.3 previous.

At the political front, Theresa May government now searches ways to prepare plan B for Brexit and this time she is in cross-party talks, which in-turn reduces the probabilities of another failure at parliament.

Coming to the U.S., President Donald Trump is in no mood to step back from his Mexican border demand even if it has resulted the longer shutdown in history while prosecutors are again examining Huawei Technologies for allegedly stealing trade secrets from American companies. Additionally, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley signaled that Mr. Trump also wants to go ahead with up to 25% tariffs on auto sector on national security ground which he held back since late-2018 after agreeing for bi-lateral trade-deals with EU & Japan.

Given the scheduled data-points less likely to portray any big positives for respective economies, chances of the present pessimism concerning EU & Japan may can continue being present, which in-turn can help the USD to maintain its latest recovery. However, political pessimism concerning US-China trade, auto tariffs & government shutdown may confine the greenback’s rally.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD rests on 50-day SMA level of 1.1375, breaking which an upward slanting trend-line at 1.1325 and the 1.1300 could gain sellers’ attention while 1.1450, the 100-day SMA level of 1.1475 and the 1.1490-1.1500 might limit the pair’s near-term advances. GBPUSD also seems taking U-turn from 100-day SMA level of 1.2890 and can revisit the 1.2800, followed by 1.2680 support-line, but an upside clearance of 1.2890 can propel the quote to 1.3000 TL resistance and then to 200-day SMA level of 1.3110. Further, USDJPY can aim for 109.30 & 110.00 unless it trades beyond 108.90, if not then the 107.70 and the 107.00 may appear in highlight.

AUDUSD couldn’t clear 0.7230 and may retest the 0.7120 & 0.7015 rest-points ahead of pushing Bears to 0.6910 mark while 0.7310 & 0.7400 can please buyers past-0.7230. Moving on, NZDUSD reversed from 0.6850 towards 0.6685 and 0.6630 supports, breaking which 0.6540 can play its role but an upside clearance of 0.6850 still needs to conquer the 0.6885 and 200-day SMA level of 0.6970. At last, USDCAD has to conquer the 1.3385 in order to target the 1.3550 else its pullback to 1.3160 & 1.3100 can’t be denied.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 18 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

While growing optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal and upbeat print of Philly Fed Manufacturing Index propelled the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, Mr. Trump’s comments to avoid global economic summit due to the government shutdown & excessive risk-on confined the greenback’s further advances. Risk sentiments grew stronger after Wall Street Journal reported Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin proposed easing China tariffs, which the Treasury denied afterwards. However, expectations of a trade-deal between world’s two largest economies surged after BoJ Governor forecasted the same in his appearance. As a result, JPY & Gold remained down whereas AUD registered noticeable gains. On the contrary, EUR, NZD & CAD had to bear the burden of USD’s strength but the GBP grew on speculations of another referendum and/or soft Brexit. Moving on, Crude prices witnessed profit-booking moves on increasing US production.

With the risk-on mood maintaining its power on trading desks, US Dollar held its gains intact during early Friday although some among the Fed reiterated patience call for the rate-hikes. Though, Australian Dollar struggled to remain on buying list as latest challenges to China, this time from Canada, hurt the Aussie.

Looking forward, UK Retail Sales, Canadian CPI and the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment are likely economics to offer a busy trading-day to investors whereas political plays concerning US government shutdown, Brexit and trade-deal could continue providing background music to the market.

The UK Retail Sales may hinder the Pound’s latest rally as market forecasts -0.8% contraction against +1.4% prior and the CAD can continue struggling as CPI may remain unchanged at -0.4%. Further, the U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could slip to 97.0 from 98.3 and can question the recent positive outlook for the US Dollar.

At the political front, US government shutdown is likely to remain present for a bit long while chances of a second Brexit referendum and/or soft Brexit have been receiving market attention off-late. In case of trade deal, the U.S. officials have recently stopped criticizing China, which in-turn signal brighter chances of a Sino-US deal by the end of 90-day truce period. As far as Fed’s rate-hike expectations are concerned, many among the Fed has now realized that it would be better to wait before going ahead of with rate-lifts.

Given the lesser likelihood that the scheduled data-points could offer any good results to respective economies, improvements in global risk sentiments may play their role to provide first positive weekly closing of the US Dollar in previous five.

It should also be noted that doubts over ECB can keep hurting the Euro while GBP & commodity-linked currencies can benefit from latest market optimism, which in-turn could become negative for JPY & Gold.

Technical Talk

EURUSD couldn’t slip beneath 50-day SMA and is likely revisiting the 1.1430 resistance, breaking which 1.1465, comprising 100-day SMA, may gain market attention whereas a downside break of 1.1375 highlights the importance of 1.1320 support-line figure. On the other hand, USDJPY can aim for 110.00 and 110.25-30 if manage to conquer 109.50 barrier, if not then 109.10 & 108.50 may come back on the chart. Moreover, CADCHF has to provide a daily closing beyond 100-day SMA level of 0.7495 in order to challenge the 200-day SMA level of 0.7560 and an eight-month long downward slanting trend-line around 0.7610 otherwise its pullback to the 0.7465-60 region and the 0.7420 support-line can’t be denied.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

In spite of registering not so welcome data-points, the U.S. Dollar Index (I.USDX) marked first positive weekly closing in previous five as optimism surrounding Sino-US trade-deal & global central-bankers’ favor for easy monetary policy portrayed market risk-on. On the other hand, the EUR had to respect disappointing stats from regional economies and ECB President Mario Draghi’s dovish statements but GBP surged as chances of no-deal Brexit receded after Theresa May’s plan got rejected in parliament and she overcome the no confidence motion. While USD was witnessing overall strength, commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD, declined but Crude registered surge as expectations of a US-China trade-deal and OPEC+ output cut please energy buyers. Furthermore, traditional safe-havens like JPY, CHF & Gold also slipped as overall improvement in trade sentiments negatively affected risk-safe assets.

During early-Monday, mixed bag of economic releases from China propelled commodity moves. Chinese GDP slumped to the lowest since 2009 but Industrial Production & Retail Sales impressed commodity traders and helped AUD, NZD & CAD to recover some of their latest losses. Addition to their strength was China’s readiness to import more of US products to end the long-standing trade-tussle between world’s two largest economies.

The U.S. Dollar, however, couldn’t extend its earlier rise as American market are closed due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day. As a result, risk-assets like JPY, Gold and CHF started benefiting from the greenback traders’ absence especially when President Donald Trump said he is close to end more than 30 day long government shutdown.

Given the holiday at US & already published stats from China, not to forget disappointing German PPI, there are no major economics left for publishing during rest of the day. As a result, on-going political plays could receive higher attention from the investors.

In case of politics, likely end to US government shutdown and Sino-US trade-tussles can help the optimists favor commodity front but pessimism at Brexit may keep highlighting the importance of safe-havens. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May conveyed less progress from cross-party negotiation for a new Brexit proposal and said she might either go ahead with her old plan by amending few changes, which in-turn will be put to vote in the parliament.

Hence, with lack of economics, US holidays, chances of political plays to entertain traders are too high.

Technical Talk

AUDUSD moves are confined in a range between the 0.7240 and the 0.7145 but gradually recovering RSI and recently weaker greenback may propel the pair towards 0.7290 & 0.7335-40 if 0.7240 is broke. In case the pair slips under 0.7145, the 0.7100 & 0.7070 could gain sellers’ attention. Same is the case with USDCHF, the pair failed to surpass the 0.9955-60 resistance-region but an upward slanting TL, at 0.9910, might limit the quote’s downside, if not then 0.9860 & 0.9830 could comeback on the chart. If at all the pair clears 0.9960 barrier, the 0.9990 & the 1.0005-10 may please the buyers. At the end, the NZDCHF took a U-turn from 0.6740-45 resistance-area and may revisit the 0.6650 & the 0.6610-05 support-zone whreas an upside clearance of 0.6745 can flash 0.6785 & 0.6810 on Bulls’ radar.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 22 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

While holiday in US confined greenback moves on Monday, doubts over global growth, Brexit & trade-talks between the world’s two largest economies negatively affected the commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD. However, EUR & GBP managed to take advantage of soft USD and speculations that the UK might end-up delaying its departure from the EU region. Moving on, the JPY benefited due to broader market pessimism but Gold couldn’t please buyers as uncertainty over the economic health of one of its largest consumer, namely China, disappointed precious-metal traders. On the other hand, Crude prices marked one more day with gains on the news of OPEC+ alliance’s readiness to cut output.

At the start of Tuesday, when US traders rejoined markets after long weekend, comments from World Economic Forum propelled momentum. The IMF cut down their 2019 global growth forecasts to the weakest in three years whereas Brexit front opened another wildcard with opposition planning to put forth a voting round, to be held on Jan 29, which can offer different ways to overcome no-deal Brexit, including another referendum.

With the early-day moves were mostly against commodity basket and showing pessimism, the US Dollar, the JPY and the Gold remained in demand due to their safe-haven appeal while commodity-linked currencies & Crude had to drop. Alternatively, the EUR and the GBP became victims of Brexit uncertainties and sluggish data-points at home.

Looking forward, monthly prints of UK employment releases and EU ZEW Economic Sentiments will be the first to entertain Forex traders before shifting market attention to US Existing Home Sales & New Zealand’s quarterly CPI. The British Average Earnings & Unemployment Rates aren’t likely to change from 3.3% and 4.1% respectively but expected dip in Claimant Count Change, to 20.1K from 21.9K, might favor the GBP. EU ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers might not offer clear picture of the regional economic strength as German figure is expected to slip to -18.8 from -17.5 but its EU counterpart may recover to -20.1 from -21.0. Additionally, US Existing Home Sales may dip to 5.27M from 5.32M while the New Zealand CPI q/q can add weakness into the Kiwi if matching 0.0% forecast compared to +0.9% prior.

At the political front, Brexit will gain higher market attention as reaction to oppositions’ extra efforts to challenge Theresa May’s plan could determine how badly the PM maintains her power even after overcoming two no-confidence votes. Further, US government shutdown and trade-talks could also offer intermediate trade opportunities where Trump may move forward towards his Mexican border plan and restart the government after 32 days of close but little progress is being made on trade discussion with China.

Given the not so hawkish expectations from scheduled data-points, coupled with global economic & political pessimism, chances are higher that safe-havens could continue being in market limelight. As a result, commodity-linked currencies, EUR & GBP might be little weaker.

Technical Talk

Not only its U-turn from four-month old descending trend-line, but dip under the 100-day SMA also indicate brighter chances of the GBPUSD’s dip to 1.2790 support-line, breaking which 1.2700 may appear in highlight. On the upside, 100-day SMA level of 1.2895, the 1.2930 and the 1.3000 trend-line resistance can keep limiting the pair’s near-term advances. Further, NZDUSD is also declining towards 100-day SMA level of 0.6685, which if broken could fetch the quote 0.6620 TL support. Meanwhile, an immediate downward slanting trend-line, at 0.6750, followed by 0.6780, seem adjacent resistances for the pair. Moreover, CHFJPY again reversed from five-week long resistance-line and may drop to 109.45 prior to resting on the 108.95 whereas break of 110.05 TL can trigger the pair’s recovery to 110.60 and then to 111.25-35 area.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 23 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

Three-year low Existing Home Sales, question mark on government shutdown and comments from White House that may toughen the trade-talks with China portrayed one more negative daily closing of the U.S. Dollar Index (I.USDX) on Tuesday. As a result, traditional risk-safeties like JPY & Gold registered a daily positive closing whereas commodity-linked currencies like AUD & CAD had to bear the burden of pessimism surrounding trade-deal between world’s two largest economies. However, the New Zealand benefited from better than forecast CPI number and the GBP took advantage of upbeat employment statistics. The EUR, on the other hand, had to decline due to uncertainty over Brexit & weaker data-points from leading regional economies, like Germany & France. Additionally, Crude prices also slumped as doubts over Sino-US trade deal and increasing US output troubled energy buyers.

Having recovered some of its latest losses on Tuesday, the Japanese Yen had to dip during early-Wednesday as slump in export joined hands with BoJ’s another cut to inflation outlook. In addition to JPY, the Gold also had to liquidate yesterday’s gains based on the USD’s strength backed by chances of a government restart. The U.S. Senate scheduled a vote, put forward by opposition Democrats, to reopen the government offices on Thursday. Recoveries were also seen in AUD, NZD & CAD after White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow emphasized the importance of month-end talks with China and turned down Financial Times news claiming that the institution has declined the dragon nation’s request for preparatory talks.

After the Bank of Japan and early-day news concerning US-China trade deal, second-tier economics from Canada, US, EU & Australia are to entertain investors. Among them, Canadian Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence and US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index are likely to preside over the Australian Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs

The Canadian Retail Sales is expected to contract to -0.6% from +0.3% while the EU Consumer Confidence may remain unchanged at -6 but the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index could strengthen to -2 from -8. Moving on, the Australian Flash Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI might also drop from upwardly revised 54.0 & 52.7 respectively mainly due to recent weakness in its biggest trading partner, China.

While chances are high that the US government shutdown is near to end, together with support for avoiding no-deal Brexit, developments relating to the US-China trade-deal can continue supporting the safe-haven demand. On the economic side, likely dent in Canadian & AU readings may negatively affect the commodity-linked currencies whereas EUR & USD may have to depend upon recent fundamentals before tomorrow’s ECB.

Technical Talk

Bank of Japan’s another cut to inflation outlook triggered the USDJPY’s U-turn from 109.10 but the pair still has to surpass the 109.90 resistance in order to meet the 110.30 & 110.80 levels otherwise its pullback to 109.10-109.00 support-zone and then to the 108.50 can’t be denied. Further, USDCAD couldn’t sustain its 50-day SMA break and is likely coming back to 1.3300 round-figure prior to testing the 1.3250 and the 1.3185 support-lines. If at all the pair clears the 1.3350 SMA barrier, the 1.3385, the 1.3410 and the 1.3445-50 may appear on the chart. At the end, GBPNZD failed to cross the 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence around 1.9285-1.9305 and could drop to the 1.9050 and the 1.9000 supports while an upside clearance of 1.9305 might fuel the prices towards 1.9460 & 1.9635-55 levels to north.

Have a nice trading-day …

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 24 – January – 2019

Hello Traders,

With most of the week’s scheduled statistics are out & loud, not to forget BoJ’s dovish appearance and present political plays relating the U.S. government shutdown, Brexit & trade-deal, global investors could turn their attention to Thursday’s monetary policy meeting the by the European Central Bank (ECB).

While ECB meeting seems crucial for Thursday, there are some other catalysts that could offer busy trading days ahead. Let’s talk about them in detail.

Progressing Trade-Talks & Pessimism Elsewhere Reinforced USD Strength

In spite of witnessing sluggish data-points at home & political drama concerning government shutdown, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to post first positive weekly closing in previous five as progress at Sino-US trade-talks & negative news from rest of the world’s major economies pushed traders towards the greenback. The EUR had to bear the burden of disappointing statistics from Germany, France & Italy, coupled with ECB President’s comment that the regional economy is weaker than anticipated whereas GBP gave little importance to the UK PM Theresa May’s humiliating defeat at parliament Brexit vote as May’s successive victory in retaining her position dimmed prospects of hard Brexit.

Given the market mood in favor of the USD, traditional safe-havens like JPY, Gold & CHF remained less in demand while AUD, CAD & NZD failed to enjoy optimism surrounding a trade deal between world’s two largest economies as US Dollar strength & challenges to China’s economy threatened commodity basket. Additionally, Crude prices posted third back-to-back weekly gains on positive news emanating from US-China trade discussions & OPEC+ output cut.

Return of Bears

Last-week’s investor optimism couldn’t last long as renewed doubts over the China-US trade-deal and extended government shutdown at the U.S. joined hands with pessimistic statements from global leaders & central-bankers.

At the week-start, International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut global growth projections to three-year low and leaders at World Economic Forum (WEF) also communicated their dissatisfaction from expected future outcome. Not only this, Bank of Japan (BoJ) downgraded its inflation forecast and US politicians continue struggling to limit Trump’s Mexican border and yet push him to re-open the government offices.

In case of Sino-US trade, speculations that US turned down China’s request for preparatory talks ahead of crucial discussions next-week thwarted commodity front. Though, better than forecast CPI number from New Zealand helped NZD to remain positive despite declining AUD & CAD. Moreover, The EUR benefited from the USD’s decline due to showdown between politicians while GBP rose on brighter chances of no-deal Brexit.

Crude prices couldn’t deny future challenges to energy demand on the face of global pessimism while JPY & Gold also remained in dark due to traders’ downbeat support for the JPY after BoJ & expectations that China will buy less Gold in coming years because of hardships at home.

ECB Is Immediate Market Concern With Politics Playing Background Music

Having witnessed market reaction to nearby important events, Thursday’s monetary policy meeting by the ECB will gain higher investor attention whereas chances of US government re-open & receding tensions at Sino-US trade could perform their duties in the meantime. Also, EU & US Flash PMIs can add intermediate momentum before giving command to the ECB President.

Starting with monetary policy meeting the by the European Central Bank (ECB), the regional institution isn’t expected to alter its present monetary policy but President Mario Draghi’s press conference will be crucial to observe after rate-statement.

Recent disappointments from the region’s growth engines, namely Germany, France & Italy, together with global alerts and doubts over Sino-US trade deal, Draghi might not avoid conveying weakness of the economy, which in-turn signals delay of the central-bank’s policy normalizing efforts that were to start from 2019 end. However, Draghi is Bull at heart and might not try to spoil his image.

Turning to economics, EU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs bear consensus of 51.5 mark against 51.4 & 51.2 earlier while their US counterparts might post 53.5 Flash Manufacturing PMI against 53.8 prior and 54.0 figure for Services PMI compared to 54.4 earlier.

At the political front, US Democrats & Republicans are at loggerheads to allow for Mexican border and re-open the government offices after 34 days of shutdown. Opposition is ready to allow funds to Trump administration for tightening security at Mexican border but are not accepting the need for a wall. On the other hand, Donald Trump is also intact on his demand for a wall without which is he’ll delay the state of union address to the parliament.

Brexit concerns are still in jeopardy as opposition tries to gain support for another referendum but Theresa May wants to go ahead with her initial plan with some changes on Irish border issue. Sino-US trade deal isn’t at good shape before the crucial meeting between the US & Chinese leaders in Washington. China has shown ability to import more US products but is not accepting allegations of IPR theft.

Hence, while central-bankers are less likely to provide any upbeat signals to the global economy and political plays are also in bad shape, safe-havens like JPY & Gold may regain market confidence but EUR & commodity-linked currencies couldn’t be buyer’s favorites.

Further, GBP can continue enjoying market expectations for soft Brexit while USD may recover some of its latest losses if government shutdown concludes and ECB conveys pessimism.

Technical Analysis

Although ten-week long ascending trend-line seems restricting the EURUSD declines around 1.1330, the pair has 50-day SMA level of 1.1385 and the 1.1455 figure, including 100-day SMA, as immediate resistances to conquer in order to justify its near-term strength. As a result, chances of the pair’s drop to the 1.1260 and then to the 1.1215 can’t be denied unless the quote crosses 1.1455 on a daily closing basis. The GBPUSD is presently struggling with 1.3080-90 region, including 200-day SMA & seven-month old descending trend-line, with overbought RSI signaling a pullback to 1.2980 and then to the 1.2910 rest-point. However, successful encounter of 1.3090, also clearing the 1.3100 mark, can help the pair to aim for 1.3180 & 1.3260 numbers to north. On the same line, USDJPY also needs to provide a daily close beyond 109.80 to please buyers with 110.00, the 110.30 and the 111.00 resistances otherwise the 109.00, the 108.50 and the 108.00 consecutive supports may reappear on the chart.

On the other hand, the AUDUSD is likely declining towards the 0.7070, the 0.7020 and the 0.6980 supports but sustained break of 0.7185 could propel the quote’s rally to 0.7240 and the 200-day SMA level of 0.7315. Further, NZDUSD may find it hard to accelerate recent recovery as immediate TL resistance, at 0.6820, adjacent to 0.6845-50 and the 0.6880 horizontal-line, can continue challenging the pair’s nearby advances. As a result, the 0.6765, the 0.6730 and the 0.6710-05 might keep being sellers’ favorites. At the end, USDCAD can target 1.3445 & 1.3500 if it manages to conquer 1.3355, if not then 1.3290, the 1.3220 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.3190 should be watched carefully while holding short positions.

Have a nice trading-day …