The Market Consolidates Ahead of US Job Data
After a volatile start to the week, the British pound has stabilised, with the GBP/USD and GBP/CAD pairs entering a consolidation phase. Investors are locking in profits following a recent bullish surge, as they await the release of key US labour market data, which could determine the direction of trading in the coming sessions.
Today, preliminary employment figures from ADP are expected, while tomorrow, market participants will focus on the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for June. The forecast anticipates an increase of 120K new jobs (below May data), with a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Additionally, markets will receive figures on jobless claims and average earnings. Any deviation from expectations could significantly impact Federal Reserve interest rate outlooks for the second half of the year.
Political factors are also influencing the market: pressure from Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve leadership has intensified once again. The White House has reportedly sent Jerome Powell a list of global central bank interest rates, with notes suggesting that US rates should be lower than their current levels. These remarks have heightened investor concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and fuelled speculation over potential policy easing.
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How to Master Technical Analysis
Price action traders are avid chart enthusiasts, constantly scouring price charts for valuable insights. Their trading approach is deeply rooted in technical analysis, a method that has been in the books of market participants for centuries. This article will cover technical analysis strategies and go into advanced technical analysis techniques.
Definition and Purpose of Technical Analysis
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EUR/USD Rallies on Broad Dollar Weakness, USD/CHF Slips Lower
EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1750 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now struggling below the 0.8000 resistance.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today
- The Euro started a decent increase from the 1.1600 zone against the US Dollar.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1770 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/CHF declined below the 0.8000 and 0.7950 support levels.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7920 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.1600 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.1650 resistance to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.
The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1750. Finally, the pair tested the 1.1830 resistance. A high was formed near 1.1829 and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1590 swing low to the 1.1830 high.
Immediate support on the downside is near a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1770. The next major support is the 1.1710 level. A downside break below the 1.1710 support could send the pair toward the 1.1680 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1590 swing low to the 1.1830 high.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Understanding News-based Trading
News events have a significant impact on financial markets. Every headline — from economic data releases to geopolitical shifts — can determine trading results. If you understand the effect of news on financial markets, you can capitalise on opportunities and manage risk in this dynamic environment. In this article, we’ll share some tips on when and how to trade the news.
What Is News-Based Trading?
As a trader or investor, you need to know when to enter or exit a trade. But you won’t be able to predict future price changes if you ignore the news. Although technical indicators are valuable tools for price prediction, news arrives every day and the market situation changes. To act wisely, you need to know how to react to the news and make investment decisions and trades based on it.
Traders who follow this approach closely monitor economic indicators, market analysis, corporate announcements and geopolitical events to identify trading opportunities. That’s why on various platforms like FXOpen, you can find market news and analysis.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500 Hit Record High Ahead of Holiday Break
Today, financial markets in the United States are closed in observance of Independence Day. Investor sentiment was likely buoyed by the latest rally in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which set a new all-time high yesterday, surpassing 6,280.
The bullish momentum has been driven by robust labour market data in the US. According to ForexFactory, analysts had anticipated a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%, but instead, it unexpectedly declined to 4.1%.
Can the stock market continue to climb?
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Alibaba (BABA) Shares Fall to Lowest Level in 2.5 Months
Yesterday, Alibaba (BABA) shares dropped to their lowest level since late April. The decline followed the company’s announcement of a planned bond issuance totalling approximately $1.53 billion, with a maturity date set for 2032. The funds will be used to support the development of Alibaba’s cloud infrastructure and expansion of its international e-commerce business.
The market’s negative reaction may stem from concerns over rising debt levels and the potential return on these investments.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dips as EUR/GBP Accelerates Higher
GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.3800 and corrected some gains. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8670 resistance.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today
- The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.3700 support against the US dollar.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3650 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
- EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8600 zone.
- There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at 0.8630 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to stay above the 1.3750 pivot level. As a result, the British Pound started a fresh decline below 1.3720 against the US Dollar.
There was a clear move below 1.3700 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.3650. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.3600 support zone. A low was formed near 1.3562 and the pair is now consolidating losses.
There was a minor move above the 1.3615 level. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 1.3650 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3650.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/USD Analysis: US Dollar Strengthens at the Start of the Week
On 2 July, on the EUR/USD chart, we noted that the rally—during which the pair had gained more than 6% since mid-May—was under threat, citing several technical signals, including:
→ proximity of the price to the upper boundary of the ascending channel;
→ overbought conditions on the RSI indicator;
→ nearby resistance from the Fibonacci Extension levels, around 1.18500.
Trading at the start of the week points to renewed US dollar strength. This became particularly evident with the opening of the European session, which triggered a decline in EUR/USD to the 1.17500 area.
It is reasonable to assume that the dollar’s strength against the euro is linked to early-week positioning by traders, who are anticipating news regarding US trade agreements.
According to Reuters, the United States is close to finalising several trade deals in the coming days and is expected to notify 12 other countries today about higher tariffs.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq 100: Bearish Signals Near the All-Time High
As the 4-hour chart of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index reached a new all-time high last week. However, the price action suggests that the current pace of growth may not last.
Last week’s strong labour market data triggered a significant bullish impulse. However, the upward momentum has been entirely retraced (as indicated by the arrows).
The tax cut bill signed on Friday, 4 July, by Trump — which is expected to lead to a significant increase in US government debt — contributed to a modest bullish gap at today’s market open. Yet, as trading progressed during the Asian session, the index declined.
This suggests that fundamental news, which could have served as bullish catalysts, are failing to generate sustainable upward movement — a bearish sign.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
RSI Indicator Explained: How to Use the Relative Strength Index in Trading
What is the relative strength index? The relative strength index is one of the most common oscillators. Many traders prefer it to other momentum indicators because it provides numerous signals and can be used in different timeframes and for various assets with minor changes in its settings. In this FXOpen article, you will learn what the RSI is and how to use it in trading strategies.
What Does Relative Strength Index Mean?
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator. It was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and presented for the first time in 1978 in his book entitled New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. The indicator was introduced as a tool for identifying overbought and oversold market conditions by measuring the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Today, traders use it to identify overbought/oversold conditions, divergences, and trends.
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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 7 - 11 July
Market Insights: RBA Cut in Focus, UK GDP Weakens, Canada Jobs, FOMC Clues, Tariff Deadline
From rate decisions to rising unemployment and tariff deadlines, this week’s macro landscape is shaped by evolving dynamics and shifting momentum. If you’re trading FX, commodities, or indices — this is a moment to pay close attention.
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s biggest events:
— RBA Interest Rate Decision
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— FOMC Minutes
— Tariff Deadline
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.
Don’t miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.
Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Cyclical Stocks vs Non-Cyclical Stocks: How Can You Trade Them?
Not every stock is created equal. One of the biggest distinctions is cyclical vs non-cyclical—those that grow or decline alongside economic conditions and those that are less sensitive. In this article, we explore the key differences between the two, how to analyse both, and how to trade them.
What Are Cyclical Stocks?
Cyclical stocks are those that rise and fall in line with the broader economy. They’re more sensitive to consumer spending and include those in the travel, automotive, construction, and luxury goods sectors.
Simply put, when consumers have more disposable income, they’re likely to buy new cars, travel abroad, or invest in home improvements. Demand boosts corporate earnings and pushes share prices higher. However, when consumers have less money or face economic uncertainty, they reduce and delay spending on these discretionary purchases, dampening company earnings and stock valuations.
Nike and Starbucks are good examples here—both are cyclical companies that see higher demand when consumers are in a stronger financial position and feel comfortable purchasing brand-name clothes or buying coffee on the go.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Tesla (TSLA) Leads Declines in the Equity Market
Yesterday, President Trump announced that letters had been sent to the United States’ trading partners regarding the imposition of new tariffs — for instance, a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea. This marks a return to “trade diplomacy” under the America First strategy. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on 1 August, though the date remains subject to revision.
As we highlighted yesterday, bearish signals had begun to emerge in the US equity market. In response to the fresh wave of tariff-related headlines, the major indices moved lower. Leading the decline — and posting the worst performance among S&P 500 constituents — were shares of Tesla (TSLA). The sell-off followed news of a new initiative by Elon Musk, who now appears serious about launching a political “America Party” to challenge both the Republicans and Democrats.
Trump criticised his former ally’s move on his Truth Social platform, and investors are increasingly concerned about the potential impact on Tesla’s business. Tesla shares (TSLA) fell by more than 6.5% yesterday, accompanied by a broad bearish gap.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Australian Dollar Strengthens Following RBA Decision
Today, the AUD/USD pair experienced a spike in volatility. According to ForexFactory, analysts had forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut interest rates from 3.85% to 3.60%. However, the market was caught off guard as the central bank opted to keep rates unchanged.
The RBA stated the following:
→ It remains cautious in its inflation outlook and awaits further evidence confirming that inflation is on track to return to the 2.5% target.
→ The decision to hold the rate was made by a vote of six to three — a rare instance of a split opinion among committee members.
The initial market reaction to the RBA’s unexpected move was a sharp appreciation of the Australian dollar. However, this was followed by a quick pullback in the minutes that followed (as indicated by the arrows).
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Attempts Fresh Climb as NZD/USD Slips
AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 0.6485 support. NZD/USD is struggling and might decline below the 0.5980 level.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6485 and recovered against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6535 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
- NZD/USD is consolidating above the 0.5980 support.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6010 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase above 0.6550. The Aussie Dollar tested the 0.6585 zone before the bears appeared and pushed it lower against the US Dollar.
The pair declined below the 0.6560 and 0.6550 support levels. The recent low was formed at 0.6485 and the pair is rising again. The bulls pushed it above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6588 swing high to the 0.6485 low.
The pair is now consolidating above the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the resistance is near the 0.6535 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming at 0.6535.
The first major resistance might be 0.6550 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level. An upside break above it might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6560 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6585 resistance zone.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Yen Under Pressure: Threat of New Tariffs from the US
The Japanese yen has come under pressure following reports of a potential reinstatement of trade tariffs by the United States. The USD/JPY and GBP/JPY currency pairs are exhibiting strong upward momentum as market participants assess the possible implications of Washington’s escalating trade rhetoric for the Japanese currency.
According to reports on Truth Social, Donald Trump has sent official letters to the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and several other countries, signalling the possible introduction of new tariffs from 1 August. In a letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Trump stated: “Please understand that these tariffs are necessary to correct the many years of Japan’s tariff, and non‑tariff, and trade barriers, causing unsustainable trade deficits against the United States.”
Such statements have heightened investor concerns over a renewed round of trade wars, which has negatively impacted demand for the yen.
Today, market participants remain focused on the release of the FOMC minutes and US consumer confidence data. These events may provide further impetus for the US dollar; however, geopolitical factors remain in focus.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair has risen to 147.00, following the confirmation of a bullish harami pattern on the daily timeframe dated 2 July. If current conditions persist, the yen may continue to weaken, particularly if Tokyo does not adopt a firm retaliatory stance. Technical analysis of USD/JPY indicates the potential for a test of key resistance at 148.00–148.60. A downward correction may occur if the pair falls and consolidates below 146.00.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High
As the chart indicates, the EUR/JPY pair has risen above ¥172 per euro — a level last seen in July 2024.
Since early June, the exchange rate has increased by approximately 5.6%. This upward movement is driven by a combination of factors, including:
→ Divergence in central bank policy: The European Central Bank’s key interest rate remains significantly higher than that of the Bank of Japan, making the euro more attractive in terms of yield compared to the yen.
→ US trade tariffs on Japan: The potential imposition of 25% tariffs by the United States on Japanese goods poses a threat to Japan’s export-driven economy, placing downward pressure on the national currency.
→ Eurozone expansion and consolidation: News of Bulgaria’s potential accession to the euro area is strengthening investor confidence in the single currency.
→ Weakness in the US dollar: As the US Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since early 2022 this July, demand for the euro has grown, positioning it as a key alternative reserve currency.
Can the rally continue?
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Intel (INTC) Share Price Hits 3-Month High Without Clear Catalyst
Intel Corporation (INTC) stocks rose by over 7% yesterday, making them one of the top performers in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). As a result, the stock price reached its highest level in three months.
What’s notable is the apparent lack of clear drivers behind the rally. According to Barron’s, the increase in INTC shares could have been triggered by a rating upgrade from Wall Street analysts or a corporate announcement – yet no such developments have occurred. “Nothing new or fundamental,” says Mizuho managing director and technology specialist Jordan Klein.
At the same time, from a technical analysis perspective, the INTC price chart is showing significant developments. Examining these price movements may provide clues as to what’s fuelling the recent rise.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Three of the Best MACD Trading Strategies
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is more than just a mouthful—it’s a versatile trading indicator that has stood the test of time. This article unpacks the intricacies of this indicator and dives deep into three specific strategies that leverage the MACD with other powerful tools like the Stochastic Oscillator and Hull Moving Averages. Read on to sharpen your trading skills and enhance your toolkit.
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Opportunities and Challenges of Emerging Market Trading
Title: Opportunities and Challenges of Emerging Markets | FXOpen
Description: Growth potential comes with high uncertainty when investing in emerging markets. Thoughtful trading accounts for both emerging market risks and rewards.
Emerging markets are typically found in developing regions and are characterised by rapid economic growth, high productivity levels, expanding populations, and increasing industrialisation. Their higher volatility compared to established markets presents both opportunities and risks for traders, while the less mature financial infrastructures and regulatory frameworks lead to increased uncertainty. In this article, we discuss the opportunities and challenges that these types of markets offer.
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