Brent Crude Price Continues to Fall
Today, the price of Brent crude has dropped below $60 per barrel, marking its lowest level since March 2021. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, from the start of 2025, the price saw a rise of around 2.6% at the end of March 2025.
Why is oil falling?
The key driver is the escalation of the trade war. Yesterday, the US President announced the imposition of additional tariffs on trade with China, bringing the total to 104%.
The decline in Brent prices seems to reflect traders’ concerns about the risks of a global recession.
Oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026
Yesterday, analysts at Goldman Sachs released their oil price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude. They expect prices to reach $62 per barrel for Brent and $58 for WTI by December 2025. By December 2026, they anticipate a further decline to $55 and $51, respectively. However, analysts caveat that these forecasts are based on the assumption that the US will avoid a recession and that OPEC+ countries will increase their supplies.
In the event of a global economic slowdown, Brent prices could drop to $40 by the end of 2026.
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Defence Stocks Rise After Trump’s Decision
As shown in the charts, despite predominantly bearish sentiment in the stock market yesterday — with the difference between the opening and closing price for the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) being down by 4% — defence company stocks showed growth.
According to the WSJ, Palantir Technologies shares rose by 8% to $84.05 on Tuesday, while General Dynamics and Boeing increased by 5% to $260.12 and $145.365 respectively. Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin gained about 4% each.
Why Did Lockheed Martin (LMT) Shares Rise?
This occurred after President Trump announced that the defence budget for the 2026 fiscal year would be around $1 trillion, and Defence Secretary Pete Hegset published his announcement about the budget on X (formerly Twitter).
The increase in the defence budget by approximately $50-100 billion contrasts with previous statements from US leadership in February, when:
→ Trump said that “we have no reason to spend almost a trillion dollars on the military”;
→ Hegset suggested annually cutting the defence budget by 8% — or around $50 billion — over the next five years.
Such statements had been putting pressure on the price of LMT stock in 2025.
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Understanding the Global Financial Markets: Insights and Strategies
Why is finance interesting? It’s the lifeblood of the global economy, affecting everything from individual well-being to the rise and fall of nations. This article delves into the intricate world of global financial markets, offering insights into their types, key players, market forces, strategies, regulations, challenges, and opportunities.
What Are Financial Markets?
Financial markets act as crucial platforms where buyers and sellers engage in the trade of assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. In discussing “What is a financial market?” the answer includes a wide range of exchanges and over-the-counter markets. Simply put, the financial market definition can be summarised as a marketplace for creating and exchanging financial assets.
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European Currencies Test Recent Extremes Ahead of US Inflation Data
Against the backdrop of yesterday’s announcement of a 90-day pause on previously imposed tariffs by the Trump administration, volatility in the currency markets has sharply increased again. European currencies, such as the Swiss franc, euro, and pound, continue to test recent extremes, awaiting the release of inflation data from the US.
The events of this week are heightening uncertainty among investors, who are striving to adapt to new economic conditions. The introduction of the tariff pause came as an unexpected move, which temporarily eased tensions in the global markets. However, it remains unclear how this will affect the long-term prospects for currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
In the face of instability, market participants continue to seek ways to minimise risks and protect their investments. Today’s core consumer price index (CPI) data may provide further clues about the impact of Trump’s tariff policy on the US economy and, in general, on the currency markets.
EUR/USD
Last week, buyers of the EUR/USD pair managed to break through a series of key resistances at 1.1100–1.1000 and recorded the highest level of the year at 1.1145. Following news of tariffs being imposed on the European Union, the pair lost over 200 pips and tested an important range of 1.0900–1.0870. Yesterday, there was a resumption of the upward momentum, and the pair tested recent extremes again at 1.1100. Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests potential strengthening of the pair towards 1.1145, provided it can settle above 1.1000. A drop below 1.0870 could lead to a retest of 1.0800.
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Trump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds Sharply
As shown in the chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index is currently trading near the 5,500 level.
This result is highly encouraging, considering that as recently as yesterday morning, the index was hovering around 4,900.
Why Have Stocks Risen?
The strong rebound seen yesterday evening was triggered by a statement from the US President — he announced a 90-day delay in the implementation of wide-ranging global trade tariffs, which had originally been unveiled on 2 April and led to a sharp drop in the index (as indicated by the arrow).
However, this does not apply to China, for which tariffs were not delayed but increased. “Due to the lack of respect China has shown towards global markets, I am raising the tariff imposed on China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately,” said Donald Trump, according to media reports.
Overall, US stock markets responded positively to the news, and Goldman Sachs economists have withdrawn their US recession forecasts.
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Tesla (TSLA) Shares Jump Approximately 22% in a Single Day
Tesla was among the standout performers in the stock market rally that followed President Trump’s decision to delay, by 90 days, the implementation of new international trade tariffs — with the notable exception of China. According to the charts, Tesla (TSLA) shares surged by approximately 22%.
Why Did TSLA Shares Soar?
Some insight comes from Cathie Wood, CEO of asset management firm ARK Invest.
In an interview with Barron’s on Wednesday, she noted the following:
→ Tesla plans to launch a new, more affordable vehicle this quarter, likely priced at around $30,000 — roughly half the cost of the base Model Y.
→ The upcoming release of Tesla’s robotaxi service could also lower the need for large upfront vehicle purchases, offering consumers a more economical alternative.
→ Tesla sources more components from North America than most other US carmakers, meaning it is less exposed to tariff-related costs.
And there’s another reason TSLA may have jumped — one that can be found in the chart.
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Five of the Best Volume Indicators
Understanding volume and volume indicators is crucial for anyone looking to understand the financial markets. This article offers traders insights into the five of the best volume indicators, allowing them to gauge market trends, momentum, and potential reversals.
Understanding Volume and Volume Indicators in Trading
In trading, volume refers to the quantity of a financial instrument, such as shares or contracts, that are bought and sold within a specified time frame. Often displayed as a bar graph beneath the price chart, volume shows traders the strength or weakness of price movements. A surge in volume generally indicates strong interest, which can validate a trend, while low volume might signify a lack of conviction or impending reversal.
Volume indicators are computational tools designed to assess volume data. They work alongside traditional price indicators to offer a fuller understanding of market behaviour. They can help traders identify changes in momentum and shifts in market sentiment, acting as a secondary measure to confirm signals from price action.
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Gold Price Surpasses $3,200 for the First Time in History
According to the XAU/USD chart today, the price of an ounce of gold is fluctuating above the $3,200 level on global exchanges — a level never reached before.
Since the beginning of 2025, gold has gained approximately 22%.
Why Is Gold Rising Today?
Today’s bullish momentum in the gold market is driven by two key factors.
First, inflation data. Figures released yesterday for the CPI (Consumer Price Index) revealed a slowdown in inflation in the United States. This suggests a greater likelihood of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. According to Reuters, gold prices now reflect expectations of three interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 — and lower rates typically support a stronger XAU/USD.
Second, fears of a global recession. Although US President Donald Trump has introduced a 90-day delay on the implementation of international trade tariffs, this does not apply to China, where tariffs have been increased to a striking 145%. Traders fear that Beijing could retaliate by raising tariffs on US goods beyond the current 84%.
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EUR/USD Hits Highest Level in Over Three Years
This morning, the euro surged above the 1.3000 mark against the US dollar for the first time since February 2022.
Throughout this week, the EUR/USD pair has broken through the highs of both 2023 and 2024.
Why Is EUR/USD Rising?
Amid the whirlwind of news surrounding the imposition and suspension of tariffs in US–EU trade, one dominant factor stands out — the sell-off of US bonds.
According to Reuters, long-term US Treasury bonds are being heavily sold this week. The yield on 10-year notes has jumped from 3.9% to around 4.4%, marking the steepest increase in yields since 2001. This may reflect a reaction by foreign holders of US debt to sanctions imposed by the White House, combined with growing uncertainty about the US economy — especially as recession fears gain more media attention.
As a result, the US dollar is showing weakness against a range of currencies, including the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the euro.
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Is There the Best Moving Average (MA) For Swing Trading?
In swing trading, moving averages are widely used to analyse market trends and identify potential turning points. In this article, we’ll dive into the most commonly used MAs, their unique characteristics, and how they can be applied in swing trading strategies.
What Are Moving Averages?
You definitely know what moving averages are. However, we need to start our article with a brief introduction to this market analysis tool.
A moving average (MA) is a fundamental tool in technical analysis that helps traders understand the direction of a market trend by smoothing out price fluctuations, often touted among the best indicators for swing trading. Instead of focusing on the volatile ups and downs, MAs calculate an average of prices over a specific period, such as 20, 50, or 200 periods. This gives traders a clearer picture of the overall trend by filtering out short-term volatility.
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Market Analysis: AUD/USD & NZD/USD Gain Pace, Bulls Are Back?
AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6150 and 0.6200 levels. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5850.
Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar rebounded after forming a base above the 0.6000 level against the US Dollar.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6260 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
- NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.5765 zone.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5825 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.5940 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6065 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.
There was a close above the 0.6200 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6315 zone. A high was formed near 0.6314 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase.
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Trump Exempts Electronics from Tariffs; Nasdaq 100 Opens with Bullish Gap
Despite the weekend, the news flow remained intense amid the escalating trade war. According to media reports:
→ Certain tech products, including those made by Apple, have been exempted from Trump’s tariffs.
→ Trump announced he would make a significant statement regarding semiconductor tariffs on Monday, 14 April.
Stock Indices React to Trump’s Tariff Moves
These announcements were taken positively by the markets. As shown on the chart of the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), the new week opened with a bullish gap exceeding 1.5% – a stronger performance than the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which also saw a bullish gap.
This may suggest that market participants are cautiously optimistic that the sweeping tariff measures might be eased through exemptions, delays, or negotiation concessions. Nevertheless, the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear” territory, despite inching higher compared to last week.
As of this morning, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has recovered approximately 15% from its 2025 low.
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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: April 14 - 18
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: UK & Canada Inflation, BOC & ECB Rates, Corporate Earnings
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- UK’s Unemployment and Inflation Rates
- Inflation Rate in Canada & BOC Interest Rate Decision
- ECB Interest Rate Decision
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.
Don’t miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.
Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
5 of the Most Popular Momentum Indicators for Trading
Ready to sharpen your momentum trading skills? In this FXOpen article, we’ll break down how momentum indicators work and the signals they provide, and introduce five of the most widely used momentum tools.
What Is a Momentum Indicator?
Momentum in technical analysis refers to the rate at which an asset’s price accelerates or decelerates, helping traders identify potential trend continuations or reversals.
A momentum indicator is a tool used in technical analysis to measure the speed and strength of an asset’s price movements. By analysing changes in price over a specific period, these indicators provide insights into the underlying force driving market trends.
Momentum indicators do not focus on the direction of the price movement itself, but rather the strength behind it. Traders use these tools to gauge whether the market is overbought, oversold, or losing momentum, which helps determine entry or exit points. A stock momentum indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), for instance, may indicate that stocks are currently bought or sold too heavily and their price is due for a reversal.
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Brent Crude Price Consolidates
When analysing the Brent crude oil price chart six days ago, we:
→ identified a downward channel marked in red;
→ noted that the median line was acting as resistance;
→ suggested the price could find support at the lower boundary of the channel, reinforced by the psychological $60 per barrel level.
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, since then:
→ the price has indeed rebounded from the lower boundary (as indicated by the arrow), rising from its lowest level in nearly four years;
→ the median line has reaffirmed its role as resistance (highlighted by the marker).
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Walmart (WMT) shares reach highest level since early March
As shown on the chart of Walmart (WMT) shares, trading closed yesterday above the $94 mark – a level not seen since the beginning of March. This means that since the start of 2025, Walmart’s share price has risen by approximately 5.5%.
This positive trend stands in stark contrast to the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which has declined by more than 8% over the same period.
Why are Walmart (WMT) shares outperforming the index?
Apparently, from the market’s point of view, this is due to the fact that Walmart’s supermarkets are a source of essential goods for Americans, giving the company an advantage in a scenario where the US economy may slide into recession.
According to Mizuho Bank analyst David Bellinger, Walmart is a sensible choice for investors trying to stay afloat in a volatile market. He forecasts that WMT’s share price could rise to $105 – around 15% higher than its current level.
Bellinger notes that Walmart continues to attract price-conscious shoppers and has made significant progress in e-commerce, helping the company remain resilient even amid the prospect of economic slowdown.
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Risk Management in Day Trading
Risk management in trading, especially in day trading, is a vital tool for traders as it helps them navigate unpredictable financial landscapes. Day trading, a strategy that involves buying and selling financial assets within the same day, offers the allure of quick gains. However, it comes with heightened risks due to its fast-paced and speculative nature.
In this FXOpen article, we’ll explore the risks associated with day trading and provide key points of risk management in trading futures, stocks, currencies, and other financial instruments.
Key Steps for Risk Management in Day Trading
Below you will find the key steps traders may consider before building risk management strategies for day trading.
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The Dollar Adjusted Amid a Pause in Tariff Policy
Against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty, trade wars, and anticipation of key decisions by central banks, major currency pairs continue to show sensitivity to macroeconomic developments.
Today, market participants are focused on the Bank of Canada meeting, where a decision on the base interest rate will be announced. This event may significantly impact the pricing of USD/CAD. Simultaneously, changes in the monetary policy of the ECB and the Bank of Japan also remain in the spotlight for investors, which could lead to a rebalancing of positions in EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs.
In the coming days, markets will closely monitor central bank statements, which may set a new direction for major currency pairs.
USD/CAD
Last week, dollar sellers in the USD/CAD pair managed to break through key support at 1.4000. The pair fell sharply, losing around 200 pips. Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates a potential upward correction towards recently broken levels, as a “piercing candle” pattern has formed on the daily time frame. If the price drops below 1.3900, a retest of this year’s low at 1.3830 is possible.
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Netflix (NFLX) Share Price Jumps Nearly 5%
According to the charts, Netflix (NFLX) shares rose to their highest level since early April, while the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) declined by approximately 0.2% yesterday.
Since the beginning of 2025, NFLX’s share price has increased by more than 8%, showing resilience in a volatile stock market that remains sensitive to the escalation of the global trade war.
Why Is Netflix (NFLX) Gaining in Value?
The strong performance may be attributed to three key factors:
Jason Helfstein, an analyst at financial holding company Oppenheimer, believes the company likely faces “limited” risks. Netflix does not sell tradeable goods subject to tariffs and could even benefit from a potential economic downturn if consumers opt to stay home more often.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Netflix has set a target of reaching a market capitalisation of $1 trillion and doubling its revenue to $39 billion by 2030.
Positive sentiment ahead of the earnings report – yes, Netflix is one of the first to release its quarterly results.
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Inflation in the UK Has Fallen
According to Forex Factory, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in below expectations: while analysts had forecast a decline to 2.7% year-on-year from the previous 2.8%, the actual CPI figure was 2.6%.
Following the release of this news, the GBP/USD exchange rate rose to 1.3280 – the highest level in seven months.
On the one hand, falling inflation is a sign of a healthy economy and a relief for the Bank of England, especially considering that CPI stood in double digits just two years ago. As a result, analysts may now predict that interest rates could be cut at the meeting scheduled for 8 May.
On the other hand, demand for the dollar remains volatile due to Trump’s tariff policies, fears of a US recession, and a wave of bond sell-offs.
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