The US Dollar Retraces Amid Rumours of Potential Tariff Reductions for China
Recent US data points to improvement in the manufacturing sector: the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.7, exceeding forecasts. However, both the composite index and the services PMI came in below expectations.
Particular attention is being drawn to discussions within the White House regarding a potential reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports — a move that could significantly impact trade relations and support a strengthening of the US dollar.
Moreover, speculation regarding the resignation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears to have been exaggerated, which could also be perceived as a bullish signal for the USD. Together, these factors set the stage for an upward correction in currency pairs such as USD/JPY and USD/CAD.
USD/JPY
Having narrowly missed revisiting last year’s lows near 139.60, the USD/JPY pair reversed course and at one point yesterday traded above 143.00. On the daily timeframe, a bullish “piercing pattern” is potentially forming. Technical analysis suggests there may be room for continued upward correction towards the 145.00–145.50 region. A resumption of the downward trend may only be considered upon a firm break below the 140.00 level.
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