The pair started the day on a positive note, with the first resistance seen at 1.0900. Above this level, subsequent resistances to monitor are 1.0950 and 1.1000. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0875, followed by 1.0845 and 1.0810 if it breaks below.
Gold started the day with a downward movement, with the first resistance level at 2,430. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,475 and 2,500. On the downside, the first support is at 2,385, and if this level is broken, the next supports to watch will be 2,355 and 2,315.
On Wednesday, the dollar index maintained its recent gains around 104.5, nearing two-week highs as investors awaited the latest US manufacturing and services activity data to measure economic health. The dollar was supported by expectations linked to the “Trump trade,” which predicts potentially inflationary policies under a second Trump presidency. While former President Donald Trump continues to lead in polls ahead of the November election, Vice President Kamala Harris has been gaining momentum since starting her campaign in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Regarding monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to initiate interest rate cuts starting in September amidst easing inflation, with two additional cuts expected by year-end. The dollar demonstrated strength against most major currencies but faced weakness against the yen.
Gold rose above $2,410 per ounce on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session. The Q2 GDP growth advance estimate is expected to show a 2% expansion, up from 1.4% in Q1, while the PCE price index is forecasted to see a 0.1% uptick after remaining flat in May. Recently, cooling US headline inflation supported expectations that the Fed may begin cutting rates in September, with two more reductions anticipated before the end of the year.
WTI crude futures climbed above $77 per barrel on Wednesday following a four-session decline, driven by a large decrease in US crude inventories. According to API data, inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, marking the fourth week of declines and surpassing market expectations of a 2.5 million barrel reduction. Additionally, concerns over potential short-term supply disruptions supported oil prices, with ongoing wildfires in Canada threatening over 10% of the region’s oil production. However, optimism surrounding ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas exerted downward pressure on prices after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at progress toward an agreement.
The EUR/USD pair started the day negatively, with the first resistance at 1.0870. Above this level, subsequent resistances to monitor are 1.0900 and 1.0950. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0845, followed by 1.0810 and 1.0750 if it breaks below.
Gold started the day with a downward movement, with the first resistance level at 2,430. If this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,475 and 2,500. On the downside, the first support is at 2,412, and if this level is broken, the next supports to watch will be 2,385 and 2,355.
On Thursday, gold declined to approximately $2,370 per ounce, its lowest level in two weeks, as investors awaited key US economic data. The focus is on preliminary Q2 GDP figures, expected to show 2% growth and the June PCE price index. Market sentiment fully anticipates a rate cut in September, with expectations for two additional reductions by year-end. Increased gold demand from India is also expected following a tax reduction.
The dollar index dropped below 104.3 for the second session as investors awaited crucial US economic data. Key releases include weekly jobless claims and preliminary Q2 GDP figures, followed by the June PCE price index. S&P Global’s flash PMIs showed strong services growth but a manufacturing contraction. Market expectations remain tilted towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with additional reductions likely by year-end.
The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 153 per dollar, its highest in 12 weeks, as traders closed out positions ahead of the BoJ policy meeting. Safe-haven demand also bolstered the yen amid declines in riskier assets due to disappointing corporate earnings and a dimming global economic outlook. Market sentiment is divided on a BoJ rate hike, but there is anticipation of bond purchase tapering. Recent yen strength began with speculation of government intervention, supported by BOJ data indicating significant yen purchases on July 11-12.
The direction of the pair, starting the Asian session flat today, will be influenced by the growth data that will be released in the US later. Below, the initial support level is at 1.0810, followed by 1.0760 and 1.0710 if this area is breached. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0870, with subsequent levels to watch at 1.0900 and 1.0950 if this level is surpassed.
For GBP/USD, the initial support lies at 1.2860, followed by 1.2820 and 1.2760 below. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.2940, with subsequent levels at 1.3000 and 1.3050 if the pair breaks above this resistance.
Gold surged above $2,390 per ounce on Monday, extending its previous gains as investors anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The US June PCE reading, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, matched forecasts, but the core rate rose by 0.2%, slightly exceeding the expected 0.1%. Despite this, market expectations for rate cuts remained strong, with a reduction fully priced for the September meeting and two additional cuts anticipated by year-end. Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided further support for gold as a safe-haven asset. This followed Israel’s vow of strong retaliation against Hezbollah after accusing the Iran-backed group of a weekend attack that resulted in 12 deaths. Hezbollah, however, has firmly denied any involvement in the incident.
On Monday, the Japanese yen strengthened to nearly 153 per dollar, building on a 1% gain from the previous week. This rise is largely attributed to increasing speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in its upcoming meeting to manage inflation and support the currency. The market anticipates a 10 basis point increase to 0.1% this week, along with the announcement of quantitative tightening measures. The yen’s rally began in mid-July, initially spurred by a suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. This momentum was further driven by the unwinding of long-standing carry trades and short positions, as well as safe-haven buying amid a global equity sell-off. Additionally, expectations that the US Federal Reserve might soon begin lowering rates have put pressure on the dollar while boosting other major currencies.
On Monday, the dollar index dipped below 104.3, continuing its sideways trend from the past week as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady this week, shifting market focus to hints about future rate cuts. Data released on Friday showed that the headline PCE price index met expectations, but the core rate was slightly higher than forecasted. Additionally, the US economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, driven by increased consumer demand. However, it still fell short of the 3.1% average growth seen from 2021 to 2023. The dollar also faced pressure from improved risk sentiment, with global stocks and commodities rebounding from recent lows. Meanwhile, traders kept a close eye on yen movements amid speculation that the Bank of Japan might raise rates this week.
Before the significant data releases this week in both Europe and the US, the currency pair started the week with an upward movement. The first key resistance level to watch is 1.0870. If this level is surpassed, the next levels to monitor are 1.0900 and 1.0950. On the downside, the initial support level is 1.0810, with subsequent supports at 1.0780 and 1.0710.
With recent geopolitical developments driving the market, gold started the week with an upward movement. The first key resistance level is 2400. If this level is exceeded, the next resistance levels to watch are 2415 and 2430. On the downside, the initial support level is 2380, with subsequent supports at 2365 and 2350 if this level is breached.
Gold stabilized near $2,380 per ounce on Tuesday after losses in the previous session, as investors await key central bank policy meetings. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, with potential hints of a September rate cut. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates by 10 basis points to 0.1%, while opinions are divided on the Bank of England’s actions. Traders also await important US economic data, including non-farm payrolls, expected to show 185,000 new jobs and steady unemployment at 4.1%, with 0.3% wage growth.
The Japanese yen held steady around 154 per dollar as the BoJ began its two-day meeting. Markets expect a 10 basis point rate hike to 0.1% and reduced bond purchases. The yen has risen since mid-July, initially due to suspected government intervention and later supported by the unwinding of carry trades and safe-haven buying. Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 2.5% in June, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio was slightly weaker at 1.23.
The dollar index remained above 104.5, close to a two-week high, as investors anticipated the Fed’s policy decision. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady on Wednesday while signaling a possible September rate cut. Last week, the headline PCE price index met expectations, but core rates were slightly higher. The US economy grew by 2.8% in Q2, surpassing forecasts. Traders will focus on June job openings and July consumer confidence, with the monthly jobs report on Friday.
In the EUR/USD pair, the first support level is at the 200-day moving average, which is 1.0810. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0780 and 1.0710. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0840; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0870 and 1.0900.
Before the important data releases, gold remains in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,370. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,355 and 2,316. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,400; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,415 and 2,430.
Today, the EUR/USD remains steady as traders await the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, with key support at 1.0810. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY fluctuates following the Bank of Japan’s rate hike, testing the 152.00 level. Gold prices surge to $2,420 amid escalating Middle East tensions, driven by safe-haven demand. Lastly, the pound holds its ground in anticipation of decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, with GBP/USD watching key support at 1.2820. Stay tuned for a comprehensive breakdown of these developments and their implications for the forex market.
The dollar index remained subdued around 104.4 on Wednesday as traders took a cautious approach ahead of the latest Federal Reserve policy announcement. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday while setting the stage for a potential rate cut in September. On Tuesday, data revealed that the number of job openings in June was little changed at 8.2 million, slightly above forecasts of 8 million. Investors are now looking forward to additional labor market data later this week, including the JOLTS report and the highly anticipated monthly jobs report.Although the pair closed flat yesterday due to these developments, today’s Fed press conference and the European inflation data are likely to bring volatility to the pair.
In the pair, the first support level is at the 200-day moving average, which is 1.0810. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0780 and 1.0710. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0840; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0870 and 1.0900.
Gold rose to around $2,420 per ounce on Wednesday, recovering from earlier losses driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating conflict fears in the Middle East. Reports indicated that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, according to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. This came after the Israeli government claimed responsibility for killing Hezbollah’s top commander in a Beirut airstrike on Tuesday, in retaliation for an attack on the Israel-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend.
Before the important data releases, gold remains in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,412. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,390 and 2,370. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,430; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,445 and 2,475.
Currency markets experienced significant volatility today, driven by global central bank decisions and economic indicators. The dollar index has softened, dropping to a two-week low after indications from the Federal Reserve of a possible interest rate cut in September due to positive inflation data. The Japanese yen has surged to a four-and-a-half-month peak following the Bank of Japan’s rate hike, with expectations of further tightening. Gold prices remain strong, near record highs, supported by expectations of a softer US monetary stance and rising safe-haven demand on growing Middle Eastern conflicts. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair has edged lower with a critical Bank of England meeting that might decide between maintaining or cutting interest rates, influenced by recent economic reports.
The dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, reaching a two-week low after the Federal Reserve signaled its willingness to cut interest rates in September due to improving inflation data. As expected, the central bank kept the fed funds rate steady and acknowledged that, while inflation remains elevated, it has eased and is moving closer to the target. Markets are fully anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for over 70 basis points of total easing this year. On the economic front, data released Wednesday, including the ADP report and Q2 employment costs, indicated a cooling labor market. Investors are now looking ahead to the highly anticipated monthly jobs report due on Friday. At the same time, the slight increase in European inflation above expectations allowed the euro to gain some modest strength.
In the pair, the first support level is at the 200-day moving average, which is 1.0810. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 1.0780 and 1.0710. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.0840; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 1.0870 and 1.0900.
Gold traded around $2,450 per ounce on Thursday, following a 1.6% increase in the previous session and staying near record highs. This stability comes during expectations of a more accommodating US monetary policy and increased safe-haven demand. The Federal Reserve, as widely anticipated, kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, indicating that recent economic trends—such as progress in cooling consumer prices and a weakening labor market—support a less restrictive monetary stance. Additionally, rising tensions in the Middle East are enhancing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The situation in the Middle East intensified following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which came shortly after Israel claimed responsibility for an airstrike that killed Hezbollah’s top commander in Beirut. In retaliation, Iran issued a strong statement, promising that Israel would pay a heavy price.
Before the important data releases, gold remains in a sideways trend, with the first support level at 2,430. If this level is breached, the next supports to watch will be 2,413 and 2,390. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 2,458; if this level is surpassed, the next targets will be 2,475 and 2,490.
