Markets Eye JOLTS Report as Recession and Trade Concerns Grow (03.11.2025)
After the growth data below expectations from Japan earlier today, the first event to watch will be the Eurogroup meetings. However, the market will mainly focus on the JOLTS Job Openings report, which will be released at 14:00 GMT.
In a Fox News interview, Trump dismissed recession fears as a “transition period” but later admitted the U.S. might face a “rough patch.” His administration blamed inflation and market instability on Biden, avoiding its own tariff impact.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, speaking late on Sunday, mentioned that rising uncertainty among businesses could weaken demand in the U.S. economy, but emphasized that this did not warrant a change in interest rates.
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of the expected 160,000. January’s job growth was also revised down from 143,000 to 125,000.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated on Sunday that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, imposed by President Donald Trump in February, will go into effect on Wednesday and will not be delayed.
Looking at bonds, we can see pullbacks in the U.S. 2- and 10-year yields, while German 10-year yields have stabilized around 2.81%. Chinese 10-year yields have risen from historic lows of 1.60% to around 1.90%, continuing their upward trend.
UK Budget Forecasts and GDP Data Set to Shape Pound’s Next Move
The pound hovered around $1.29, staying near a four-month high as dollar weakness persisted amid U.S. economic concerns and tariff risks. Sterling remained supported by expectations that UK interest rates will stay high, with traders adjusting BoE rate cut forecasts to 52 bps for 2025. Investors now await January GDP data for economic insights, while the UK’s budget watchdog will release updated economic and borrowing forecasts on March 26, potentially influencing market sentiment.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2920, the next resistance levels are 1.2980 and 1.3050. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2760 and 1.2660 if selling pressure increases.
Safe-Haven Yen Gains on Economic Risks, BOJ Policy Uncertainty
The yen rose to 147 per dollar, its strongest in five months, as US recession fears fueled safe-haven demand. Trump acknowledged economic risks, while Japan’s GDP growth was revised down to 2.2% from 2.8% due to weak consumption. The BOJ is expected to hold rates in March but may hike later this year. Finance Minister Kato warned of the real-world impact of FX volatility.
Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
Dollar Decline Drives Gains Across Markets (03.12.2025)
The euro surged past $1.09, driven by deficit spending plans and ECB signals of a less restrictive policy.
The yen strengthened to 147 per dollar as US recession fears increased safe-haven demand, while Japan’s GDP growth slowed. Gold held above $2,910, supported by trade tensions and Fed rate expectations. GBP remained near $1.29, benefiting from dollar weakness and expectations of slower BoE rate cuts. Silver surged to nearly $33 as investors expected a Fed rate cut following weak US economic data.
The euro surged past $1.09, its highest in four months, gaining 5% since early March. This rally was driven by Eurozone plans to expand deficit spending, stimulating growth prospects. Germany pushed for a €500 billion infrastructure fund, while France and Italy supported joint EU funding for economic and military initiatives.
The ECB signaled a shift toward a less restrictive policy after last week’s rate cut, suggesting the easing cycle may be nearing its end. Meanwhile, US economic concerns pressured the dollar, further lifting the euro.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0650.
The Japanese yen strengthened to 147 per dollar on Tuesday, its highest in five months, as US recession fears drove investors to long-term trusted assets. Trump’s reluctance to dismiss recession risks, along with trade policy uncertainty, added to yen demand.
Japan’s economic outlook weakened as Q4 GDP growth was revised down to 2.2% from 2.8%, reflecting weak private consumption. Despite this, the BOJ is expected to keep rates steady in March, with potential hikes later. Finance Minister Shunichi Kato cautioned against excessive currency volatility amid the yen’s rapid gains.
Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
Gold and Silver Gain on Fed Speculation (03.13.2025)
EUR/USD fell to 1.0880 amid US-EU tariff disputes but found support as US recession concerns weighed on the dollar.The yen stabilized at 148 as BOJ rate hike expectations offset trade risks. Gold surged to $2,940, nearing record highs with weaker US inflation. GBP/USD climbed to 1.2960 as slowing inflation fueled Fed rate cut speculation. Silver extended its rally to $33.30.
GBP/USD trades around 1.2960 in Thursday’s Asian session, extending gains for a third day as the US Dollar weakens with recession fears linked to Trump’s policies.
The dollar faces further pressure after February inflation slowed more than expected, raising speculation of an earlier Fed rate cut. Headline inflation fell from 0.5% to 0.2% monthly and from 3.0% to 2.8% yearly, while core inflation dropped to 0.2% monthly and 3.1% yearly. Markets now await US PPI and jobless claims data for further economic signals.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2980, the next resistance levels are 1.3050 and 1.3100. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2760 and 1.2660 if selling pressure increases.
Gold surged to around $2,940 per ounce on Thursday, nearing record highs as escalating trade tensions boosted safe-haven demand. Trump threatened more tariffs on EU goods after retaliatory measures from the EU and Canada, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed planned trade protections on copper.
Meanwhile, US inflation data came in lower than expected, easing concerns and giving the Fed more room for a less restrictive policy. However, the long-term impact of tariffs remains uncertain, with inflation risks still looming.
Key resistance stands at $2,955, with further levels at $2,980 and $3,000. Support is at $2,860, followed by $2,830 and $2,790.
Markets Eye Trade Tensions, Inflation as Gold Hits Record (03.14.2025)
Markets remain volatile as trade tensions and inflation concerns dominate sentiment.The U.S. dollar strengthened amid renewed tariff threats from President Trump, while the euro slipped ahead of key economic data releases. Gold surged past $2,980, reaching a record high, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid growing expectations of Fed rate cuts. The yen weakened slightly but held near a five-month high, supported by speculation of future BOJ rate hikes. Meanwhile, silver hovered around $33.80, with softer U.S. inflation data keeping rate cut bets intact. Traders now focus on upcoming economic reports and central bank signals for further market direction.
Euro Weakens Against USD Ahead of Key Economic Data
The EUR/USD pair declined to around 1.0835 during Friday’s Asian session, as the Euro (EUR) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) amid rising trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union. Later in the day, market focus will shift to key economic releases, including Germany’s February Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0650.
Silver Holds Near $33.80 as Fed Rate Cut Bets Provide Support
Silver edged lower to approximately $33.80 during early Asian trading on Friday, losing momentum. However, the downside may remain limited, as softer U.S. consumer and producer inflation data could provide room for the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut in June, offering some support for the metal.
Additionally, concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies potentially pushing the world’s largest economy into a recession could further support silver’s appeal.
If silver breaks above $34.00, the next resistance levels are $34.85 and $35.00. On the downside, support is at $33.80, with further levels at $33.15 and $32.75 if selling pressure increases.
Markets React to US Inflation, Trade, and Rate Expectations (03.17.2025)
Markets reacted to trade tensions, monetary policy expectations, and economic data.
Gold hit a record $2,980, driven by risk aversion and Fed rate cut speculation. Euro neared $1.09 as Germany finalized debt reform, while the yen traded near five-month highs on BOJ rate hike expectations. The pound fell to $1.29 after UK GDP unexpectedly contracted, while silver surged to $33.90 on weak U.S. inflation data and rising trade tensions.
The euro climbed toward $1.09, nearing its highest since early November, as Germany agreed on debt reform and increased spending. Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz secured a deal with the Green and Social Democrat parties ahead of next week’s parliamentary vote.
Markets await Fitch’s rating decision on France, which is due after Friday’s close. Meanwhile, trade tensions rose as Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wines in response to the EU’s tax on American whiskey. On geopolitics, Trump called his talks with Putin on Ukraine “very good,” expressing optimism for a resolution.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0800, with further levels at 1.0730 and 1.0650.
Gold surged above $2,980 per ounce, hitting a record and heading for a 2% weekly gain as risk aversion and Fed rate cut expectations grew. Trump escalated trade tensions, threatening a 200% tariff on European wines after the EU’s 50% tax on U.S. whiskey.
February’s PPI and CPI data showed easing inflation, increasing Fed flexibility for rate cuts, and raising gold’s appeal. Strong ETF inflows and continued central bank purchases, with China extending its buying for a fourth month, further supported prices.
Key resistance stands at 3000, with further levels at 3045 and 3100. Support is at 2980, followed by 2916 and 2885.
Gold Surges Past $3,000, Silver Rallies as Trade Risks Mount
Markets remain volatile as trade tensions and central bank policies drive investor sentiment.
Gold soared past $3,000 per ounce, hitting a record high amid Fed uncertainty and geopolitical risks, while silver surged to its highest since October. The U.S. dollar held steady as traders awaited key economic data, while EUR/USD slipped on U.S.-EU tariff concerns. The yen weakened ahead of the BoJ meeting, and the pound remained near four-month lows as BoE rate hold expectations weighed on sentiment.
Pound Steady Near Four-Month Low Amid BoE Rate Hold Expectations
The pound traded at $1.294, near a four-month low, as investors awaited the BoE’s Thursday decision. The central bank is expected to hold rates at 4.5%, balancing weak growth and inflation risks. Despite forecasts for 2025 rate cuts, none are expected now. The UK labor market is weakening, with unemployment set to hit 4.5% and wage growth slowing. Markets also await Chancellor Reeves’ Spring Statement on March 26 for economic updates. In trade talks, the UK is taking a softer stance with the US than the EU.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3050, the next resistance levels are 1.3100 and 1.3150. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2800 and 1.2715 if selling pressure increases.
The yen fell past 149.5 per dollar, a two-week low, ahead of the BoJ’s policy decision. The central bank is expected to hold rates at 0.5% on Wednesday while assessing U.S. policy impacts. Despite a pause, rate hikes are anticipated later this year as rising wages and inflation support policy normalization. Major firms agreed to wage hikes for the third straight year, increasing consumer spending and inflation.
Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
