FOMC Minutes, Treasury Auctions and Iran Headlines Take Over for US Markets After a Soft Jobs Print as the 10-Year Yield Holds Above 5.2%
US markets head into the week of 5–9 October with the Federal Reserve’s next move in flux. September payrolls rose just 29,000 against a consensus of roughly 90,000, unemployment ticked up to 4.2% and the prior two months were revised down by 60,000, cutting CME FedWatch odds of an October hike to about 16%–18%. Yet Treasuries could not hold the rally: the 10-year yield settled at 5.275% on Friday after touching 5.33% on Thursday, a multi-decade high, even as the Dow closed at 51,182.11, the S&P 500 at 7,722.72 and the Nasdaq-100 near 30,808 with Nvidia at a new all-time high. The calendar is light but heavy on rates: ISM services on Monday, $58bn 3-year, $39bn 10-year and $22bn 30-year Treasury auctions from Tuesday to Thursday, and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Energy is the swing factor, with WTI at $91.25 (-1.3% on the week) after the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels while President Trump has sent 9,000 more troops to the Middle East.
Market at a Glance
| Instrument | Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | 1.4250 | Near 18-month high | Year high 1.4263 — Fed-BoC gap, Canadian jobs (Fri) and oil in focus |
| USD/CHF | 0.8284 | Franc outperformed Fri | Franc led G10 gains on the payrolls miss — FOMC minutes, ISM services and yields in focus |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,142.75 | -3.3% on week | Capped under $4,306 resistance — 10Y yield and dollar in focus |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $91.25 | -1.3% on week | G7 stock release vs. Iran talks — EIA inventories in focus |
| Dow Jones | 51,182.11 | +0.49% Fri | S&P 500 flat on the week — yields, Q3 earnings and ISM services in focus |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.275% | +10.8bp on week | Multi-decade high of 5.33% on Thursday — 3Y/10Y/30Y auctions and FOMC minutes in focus |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | $84,539 | +6.3% in September | $88K–90K supply zone — ETF flows in focus |
| Litecoin (LTC/USD) | $68.68 | -3.7% on week | $72.91 resistance, $65 support |
Levels reflect the Friday 2 October 2026 close and latest chart values and are indicative; prices may differ from your live feed.
What Is Driving the Week
FOMC minutes test the market’s pivot to a pause
Wednesday’s minutes of the 15–16 September meeting arrive after payrolls pushed October hike odds from about 70% to roughly 16%–18%. The 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% was unanimous and the median dot shows one more hike in 2026, with 12 of 18 officials expecting another increase by year-end. Hawks like Logan still want 50bp or more, while Williams, Jefferson and Bowman favour patience. Markets will watch how many officials favour further tightening; September CPI on 14 October falls just outside the week and is the next big test.
Bond market strain meets heavy Treasury supply
The 10-year yield rose more than 50bp in September, touched 5.33% on Thursday and settled at 5.275% on Friday after the initial post-payrolls rally faded on profit-taking, term-premium and issuance worries. Governments are issuing heavily, tech giants are raising record debt for AI and central banks are no longer big buyers. This week the Treasury sells $58bn of 3-year notes on Tuesday, $39bn of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22bn of 30-year bonds on Thursday, so auction tails or weak bid-to-cover ratios are the key risk; a break above 5.33% would pressure equities, gold and crypto.
Iran, oil and diesel supply keep energy as the swing factor
WTI settled at $91.25 (Brent $102.25), about 1.3% lower on the week after the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel over four months, though it dipped to $88.06 intraday before buyers stepped back in. The stalled peace process, 9,000 more US troops in the region and renewed strike threats keep risk premium alive, and a diesel export ban is still on the table. US diesel prices hit a record $6.52 on 22 September, and oil feeds the inflation expectations the Fed is watching, so Iran headlines, any export ban and OPEC+ news matter well beyond energy.
Equities: AI momentum meets the start of earnings season
Stocks rallied on the jobs miss and the Dow gained 250 points on Friday, with Nvidia setting a record high at $237.88 and a $5.7 trillion market cap, though the S&P 500 finished the week flat (+0.01%). Earlier in the week consumer confidence fell to a 12-year low, softer core PCE helped the Nasdaq end the third quarter higher, and Thursday’s ISM manufacturing report (54.5 vs. 55 expected) showed building cost pressures. Q3 earnings begin in earnest after this week, with PepsiCo on Thursday and Delta on Friday, and the market has punished misses such as Nike’s revenue shortfall.
The dollar stays near 18-month highs against CAD, CHF and gold
The Dollar Index sits near 18-month highs around 101.9. USD/CAD hovers near 1.4250 as elevated US yields, a Canadian economy struggling to create jobs and softer oil keep the loonie on the defensive, and Friday’s Canadian jobs report could move Bank of Canada bets (about 50% for October). USD/CHF is near its year-to-date highs, though the franc led G10 gains on Friday as haven flows returned. Gold lost 3.3% on the week to $4,142.75 even as October hike odds collapsed, because yields and the dollar stay firm; US data has been mixed, with soft payrolls and PCE but resilient services (ISM services prior 55.4, prices paid 72.6).
Crypto rebounds into supply zones
Bitcoin rebounded from a weekly low of $82,544 to about $84,539, up 6.3% in September with spot ETF flows still positive but less aggressive. Litecoin broke out of its $50–60 range, helped by the Litecoin Foundation’s 1 October tokenisation memorandum and top-trader positioning of about 72% net long. Both face supply zones ($88K–90K for BTC and $71.46–72.91 for LTC), and with the Fear & Greed Index at 72 (Greed) positioning looks crowded, so bond-yield moves around Wednesday’s auction and minutes remain the main macro swing factor.
Trade Setups
All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Each setup is conditional and can reverse sharply on Fed, Treasury-auction and Iran headlines.
USD/CAD — 1.4250 (near 18-month high)
Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 1.4157
Levels
- Entry: Buy 1.4200–1.4250
- Stop: 1.4150
- Target: 1.4263 / 1.4320 / 1.4400
Thesis
USD/CAD enters the week just under the 1.4263 year-to-date high set on 1 October. Elevated US yields, a Canadian economy that is struggling to create jobs and softer oil keep the loonie on the defensive despite Friday’s soft US payrolls. A daily close above 1.4270 (top of the ascending channel) would open 1.4320–1.4400, while the 14-day RSI near 74 flags overbought conditions, so shallow pullbacks toward 1.4200–1.4157 are the first test of the uptrend.
Exit if
- A strong Canadian jobs rebound after August’s decline lifts Bank of Canada hike odds and sends the pair toward 1.4100–1.4050.
- Close below 1.4150.
Resistance: 1.4263 / 1.4320 / 1.4400 — Support: 1.4200 / 1.4157 / 1.4100
USD/CHF — 0.8284 (franc outperformed Friday)
Stance: Buy dips — neutral-bullish above 0.8200
Levels
- Entry: Buy 0.8200–0.8290
- Stop: 0.8150
- Target: 0.8300 / 0.8350 / 0.8400
Thesis
USD/CHF opens the week close to its year-to-date highs with the Dollar Index around 101.9, its strongest in about 18 months. Holding 0.8200 keeps the grind higher intact toward 0.8300–0.8400, with the SNB on hold at 0% and Treasury yields above 5% as the underlying support for the dollar.
Exit if
- A soft ISM services print or a dovish tone in the FOMC minutes pulls the pair toward 0.8150–0.8100 as the franc’s haven bid returns.
- Close below 0.8150.
Resistance: 0.8300 / 0.8350 / 0.8400 — Support: 0.8200 / 0.8150 / 0.8100
Gold (XAU/USD) — $4,142.75 (-3.3% on week)
Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $4,306
Levels
- Entry: Sell $4,200–4,260
- Stop: $4,310
- Target: $4,100 / $4,050 / $4,000
Thesis
Gold closed the week down 3.3% even as odds of an October Fed hike collapsed, with rallies capped beneath a dense resistance cluster while US 10-year yields sit at multi-decade highs. Rejection at the $4,306–4,312 50/200-day EMA cluster keeps the bias lower toward $4,100 and the $4,000–3,950 floor; only a close above $4,339–4,433 would shift the picture.
Exit if
- A dovish FOMC minutes read, a weak ISM services print or a failed Treasury auction (lower yields) lifts gold through $4,306 toward $4,339–4,433.
- Close above $4,310.
Resistance: $4,306 / $4,339 / $4,433 — Support: $4,100 / $4,000 / $3,950
Crude Oil (WTI) — $91.25 (-1.3% on week)
Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $88.00
Levels
- Entry: Buy $89.50–91.50
- Stop: $88.00
- Target: $93.50 / $96.00 / $99.00
Thesis
WTI settled down about 1.3% on the week after the G7’s 100-million-barrel release, dipping to $88.06 intraday before buyers stepped back in. Holding $88.00 keeps the broader uptrend (in place since the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed on 8 July) intact toward $93.50–96.00, and oil is a direct input into inflation expectations, so it also feeds the Fed and Treasury-yield narrative.
Exit if
- A credible US-Iran deal, or a larger-than-expected release of diesel and crude stocks, sends WTI toward $85–88.
- Close below $88.00.
Resistance: $93.50 / $96.00 / $99.00 — Support: $89.50 / $88.00 / $85.00
Dow Jones (US30) — 51,182.11 (+0.49% Friday)
Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 50,900
Levels
- Entry: Buy 51,000–51,200
- Stop: 50,900
- Target: 51,500 / 51,830 / 52,300
Thesis
The Dow closed Friday up 250 points with Nvidia at a new all-time high and rate-hike bets fading, though the S&P 500 finished the week unchanged. Holding 50,900 keeps the recovery alive toward 51,500–51,830 into the start of Q3 earnings season; thin data and rate-sensitive sectors make the 10-year yield the key risk.
Exit if
- A hawkish FOMC minutes read or a weak 10-year auction pushing yields toward 5.40%+ drags the index toward 50,500–50,000.
- Close below 50,900.
Resistance: 51,500 / 51,830 / 52,300 — Support: 50,900 / 50,500 / 50,000
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 5.275% (+10.8bp on week)
Stance: Yields biased higher — above 5.20%
Levels
- Entry: Yield higher from 5.22%–5.275%
- Stop: 5.20%
- Target: 5.33% / 5.40% / 5.50%
Thesis
The 10-year yield rose more than 50bp in September and touched 5.33% on Thursday; the post-payrolls rally faded as profit-taking, term-premium and issuance worries returned. Three auctions ($58bn 3-year Tuesday, $39bn 10-year Wednesday, $22bn 30-year Thursday) plus the FOMC minutes decide whether 5.33% breaks, and a tail on the 10-year would open 5.40–5.50%.
Exit if
- Strong auction demand, a cautious tone in the minutes or an Iran de-escalation pulls yields back toward 5.10–5.00%.
- A break below 5.20%.
Resistance (yield up): 5.33% / 5.40% / 5.50% — Support (yield down): 5.20% / 5.10% / 5.00%
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $84,539 (+6.3% in September)
Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $82,500
Levels
- Entry: Buy $84,500–86,600
- Stop: $82,500
- Target: $88,000 / $90,000 / $93,000
Thesis
Bitcoin trades up from Wednesday’s weekly low of $82,544 after a 6.3% gain in September, with spot ETF flows positive but less aggressive. The $88,000–90,000 supply band is the first hurdle, support stacks at $79,000 (SuperTrend), $78,400 (50-day EMA) and $74,800 (100/200-day EMAs), and RSI near 69 argues for consolidation first.
Exit if
- Hot ISM prices, hawkish minutes or a bond-auction scare push yields higher and send BTC toward $79,000–75,000.
- Close below $82,500.
Resistance: $88,000 / $90,000 / $93,000 — Support: $82,500 / $79,000 / $75,000
Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $68.68 (-3.7% on week)
Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $65.00
Levels
- Entry: Buy $67.00–70.50
- Stop: $65.00
- Target: $72.90 / $77.00 / $82.00
Thesis
Litecoin jumped about 5% on Thursday–Friday to near $69, though it is still lower on the week, supported by the 1 October Litecoin Foundation tokenisation memorandum and about 72% net-long top-trader positioning. LTC is pressing into $71.46 and $72.91 resistance with RSI near 69; a close above $72.91 opens $77.00–82.00, while $65.00 and the former $60–62 resistance zone are the support shelves.
Exit if
- A rejection at $72.91 combined with yield-driven de-risking drags LTC back toward $65.00–60.00.
- Close below $65.00.
Resistance: $71.46 / $72.91 / $77.00 — Support: $68.00 / $65.00 / $60.00
What to Watch — This Week
Times are ET and approximate.
| Time | Event | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct, 09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI, final (September) | Medium impact |
| Mon 5 Oct, 10:00 | ISM Services PMI (September) | High impact — consensus 55.3, prior 55.4; prices paid prior 72.6 |
| Mon 5 Oct, all day | Fed’s Goolsbee speaks | Medium impact |
| Tue 6 Oct, 13:00 | 3-Year Note auction ($58bn) | High impact |
| Tue 6 Oct, all day | Fed’s Williams and Bowman speak; earnings from Constellation Brands and RPM | Medium impact |
| Wed 7 Oct, 10:30 | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | Medium impact |
| Wed 7 Oct, 13:00 | 10-Year Note auction ($39bn) | Critical — a tail would open 5.40–5.50% |
| Wed 7 Oct, 14:00 | FOMC Minutes (15–16 September meeting) | Critical — how many officials favour further tightening |
| Wed 7 Oct, all day | Fed’s Logan and Williams speak; NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations | High impact |
| Thu 8 Oct, 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 3 October) | High impact |
| Thu 8 Oct, 13:00 | 30-Year Bond auction ($22bn) | Critical |
| Thu 8 Oct, pre-market | PepsiCo earnings; Fed’s Musalem speaks | Medium impact |
| Fri 9 Oct, 08:30 | Canada Employment Report (September) | High impact — USD/CAD driver |
| Fri 9 Oct, 10:00 | University of Michigan Sentiment, preliminary (October) | High impact — consensus 48.1; 1- and 5-year inflation expectations |
| Fri 9 Oct, pre-market | Delta Air Lines earnings; Moderna joins Nasdaq-100; Fed’s Collins speaks | Medium impact |
A lighter data week: Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and the three Treasury auctions are the main risk events. The September CPI report (14 October) falls just outside the week.
Analyst View — The Week Ahead
The week of 5–9 October is a rates-driven week for the US, anchored by Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and three Treasury auctions. The 10-year yield enters at 5.275% after touching a multi-decade high of 5.33%, even as a weak September payrolls report (+29K, unemployment 4.2%) cut October hike odds to roughly 16%–18%. The Dow (51,182) and S&P 500 (7,723) are supported by AI-led strength, while WTI ($91.25) is torn between Iran escalation and the G7’s 100-million-barrel stock release. The dollar remains near 18-month highs, keeping USD/CAD (1.4250) close to its year high and gold ($4,142.75) capped under $4,306, while Bitcoin ($84,539) and Litecoin ($68.68) rebound into resistance.
The conditional split runs through the minutes and the auctions. If the minutes sound hawkish and Canadian jobs disappoint, USD/CAD should break 1.4263 toward 1.4320–1.4400 and USD/CHF should test 0.8300–0.8400; if the minutes are dovish or Canadian employment rebounds strongly, USD/CAD could slip toward 1.4100–1.4050 and USD/CHF toward 0.8150–0.8100. If Iran tensions escalate, WTI should press $93.50–96.00 while gold stays capped beneath $4,306 as yields rise; if a deal emerges or stock releases deepen, WTI could fall toward $85–88, easing inflation worries and letting gold test $4,306–4,339.
Equities and crypto follow yields. If auctions are well bid and the minutes lean cautious, the Dow should extend toward 51,500–51,830 and the 10-year yield could ease toward 5.10–5.00%; if auctions tail and the minutes are hawkish, the 10-year yield could reach 5.40–5.50% and the Dow could retest 50,500–50,000. If risk appetite holds and yields stabilise, Bitcoin should challenge $88,000–90,000 and Litecoin $72.91–77.00; if yields spike after the auctions or minutes, Bitcoin could revisit $79,000–75,000 and Litecoin $65.00–60.00.
CSFX’s key catalysts for the week: Monday’s ISM services, the Tuesday–Thursday Treasury auctions, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, Thursday’s jobless claims, and Friday’s UMich sentiment and Canadian jobs. Size every position for fast-moving yield, oil and geopolitical headlines that can move markets sharply with little warning.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/weekly-us-market-outlook-5-8-october-2026
