Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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959

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 20, 2017)

USD

The US dollar got a strong boost from hawkish remarks by FOMC member William Dudley in his testimony. He affirmed US economic growth and how it has been well-distributed, citing that wage growth could pick up once productivity does. He also emphasized the need to keep up the Fed’s tightening timeline. FOMC member Evans still has a speech coming up, along with Fischer and Kaplan.

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot as Brexit-related uncertainties dampened demand for the shared currency. There were no major catalysts from the region on Monday while today has German PPI and the euro zone current account balance. A 0.1% drop in producer prices is eyed, so a steeper fall could push the shared currency much lower.

GBP

The pound was also on shaky footing as traders have been on edge during the start of the Brexit talks. While officials confirmed that it was a positive start and that the timeline and agenda have been agreed upon, traders can’t help but limit their pound holdings in anticipation of more heated discussions later on. The UK Rightmove HPI indicated a 0.4% drop in price levels. BOE Governor Carney is set to give his postponed testimony later today.

CHF

The franc was also in a weak spot against most of its peers as sentiment in the region turned sour. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has a speech by SNB Chairman Jordan. Jawboning could continue to weigh on the Swiss currency, although traders don’t seem to be so bothered anymore.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to the commodity currencies as risk appetite came into play. Japan’s trade balance turned out weaker than expected at 0.13T JPY versus the projected rise from 0.16T JPY to 0.35T JPY. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to advance against their peers even with the drop in commodity prices. RBA monetary policy meeting minutes are up for release, along with the quarterly HPI. Moody’s downgraded big Australian banks for their exposure to the housing market. Canadian wholesale sales data and New Zealand’s GDT auction are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

960

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 21, 2017)

USD

The US dollar managed to hold on to its gains thanks to the return in risk aversion. A few other policymakers gave testimonies but none sounded as hawkish as Dudley. The US current account balance widened to $117 billion but this was smaller than the projected $124 billion shortfall. US existing home sales data is due next.

EUR

The euro managed to hold its ground since it appears to be trading as the safe-haven in the region. The euro zone current account surplus was lower than expected at 22.2 billion EUR versus the 31.3 billion EUR consensus. There are no major reports due from the region today.

GBP

The pound was the weakest of the bunch as traders continued to price in Brexit uncertainties. PM May has yet to strike a coalition with the DUP and traders are looking to the Queen’s Speech for reassurance. BOE Governor Carney was not as hawkish as his other policymakers who voted for a hike in last week’s decision. UK public sector borrowing data is due next, along with a speech by MPC member Haldane.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it gained ground to the European currencies but tumbled against the commodity currencies. SNB head Jordan continued to jawbone the currency, threatening to intervene in the forex market if the franc keeps appreciating. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin is up for release next.

JPY

The yen regained some ground as risk-off flows were seen for the most part of the day. There were no reports out of Japan and today has the BOJ minutes lined up. Still, overall market sentiment could be the main driver of yen movements.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie paused from its climb when crude oil tumbled to its nine-month low on rising output from Libya. The country, which is exempted from the OPEC deal, struck a deal with Germany’s Wintershall to increase production and is likely to stay on track to meet its 1M bpd target for next month. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 0.8% drop in dairy prices and the RBNZ decision is due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

961

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 22, 2017)

USD

The US dollar held its ground against its peers even as talks of balance sheet unwinding in September dampened rate hike hopes for the same month. According to Harker and Evans, this move is separate from their economic assessment but they could rethink if data keeps coming in weak. US existing home sales turned out stronger than expected and the HPI is due next, along with the CB leading index.

EUR

The euro was off to a rough start but managed to recover against its peers as sentiment improved in the region. There were no reports out of the euro zone in the recent session and none are due today so risk appetite could determine where the shared currency could head next.

GBP

The pound drew a bit of support from relatively upbeat remarks from BOE member Haldane. This tempered cautious remarks from BOE head Carney in the previous session while the Queen’s Speech also injected a bit more confidence in the government and economy. UK public sector borrowing data also turned out better than expected. The CBI industrial order expectations index is due next and a fall from 9 to 7 is eyed.

CHF

The franc managed to rake in some gains, mostly against the commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy so currency-specific factors stayed in play. The trade balance is due next and a wider surplus of 2.44B CHF compared to the earlier 1.97B CHF is expected.

JPY

The yen also gained ground against the higher-yielding comdolls as risk aversion came into play. Japan’s all industries activity index posted a 2.1% gain, higher than the projected 1.7% rebound. There are no major reports due from Japan next so market sentiment could stay in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were the weakest performers for the day as the drop in crude oil finally took its toll on the Loonie. Even though US stockpiles posted a larger than expected draw of 2.5 million barrels, the commodity barely came off its lows on concerns of rising output from Libya. The RBNZ decision and Canadian retail sales reports are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

962

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 23, 2017)

USD

The dollar was able to rake in some gains against most of its counterparts, except against the Kiwi and Loonie. The US CB leading index came up short at 0.3% versus the 0.4% consensus while the earlier reading was downgraded to 0.2%. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are lined up today, along with new home sales data.

EUR

The euro edged slowly lower against most of its rivals as there have been no major reports to give the shared currency a boost recent. PMI reports from the manufacturing and services sectors of Germany and France are lined up, and analysts are expecting to see small dips in activity.

GBP

The pound was still one of the weaker performing currencies as Brexit uncertainties weighed on the UK currency. UK CBI industrial orders actually turned out better than expected as the index jumped from 9 to 16 instead of falling to 7. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its peers as risk-taking forced the currency to slide, on top of fears of SNB intervention. Swiss trade balance was stronger than expected at 3.40 billion CHF versus the estimated 2.44 billion CHF or the earlier 1.96 billion CHF surplus. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy next.

JPY

The yen was also on the losing end as risk-taking came into play. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday while today has the flash manufacturing PMI on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a rise from 53.1 to 53.4 to reflect a faster pace of expansion.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi enjoyed a strong boost after the RBNZ was less cautious than expected in their policy statement. The central bank kept rates unchanged and didn’t jawbone too much, even giving a more upbeat outlook for the economy. Meanwhile, crude oil chalked up another slide but the Loonie gained support from strong retail sales. The headline figure chalked up a 1.5% gain versus the projected 0.6% uptick while the core reading was up 0.8% versus 0.3%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

963

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 26, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was off to a weak start as economic reports turned out below expectations. Headline durable goods orders fell 1.1% versus the projected 0.5% dip while the core reading showed a 0.1% uptick instead of the estimated 0.4% gain. Fed Chairperson Yellen has a speech coming up next.

EUR

Economic data from the euro zone turned out stronger than expected as the German Ifo business climate index climbed from 114.6 to 115.1 versus the estimated 114.7 reading. There are no major reports due from the region next but Draghi has a speech coming up.

GBP

The pound gained some support from reports confirming that PM May has been able to strike a coalition with the DUP. This could leave the government with a more united front in the Brexit negotiations. UK BBA mortgage approvals dipped from 40.7K to 40.3K as expected. The BOE financial stability report and a speech by Carney are lined up next.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland left it functioning as a counter currency. There are still no major reports lined up from the Swiss economy so market sentiment could push the franc around.

JPY

The yen was mostly weaker against its peers as risk appetite was in play last week. There have been no major reports out of Japan so far this week and none are lined up today so market sentiment could be responsible for yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to rake in more gains as risk-taking was evident at the end of the week, even with downside pressure on crude oil prices. New Zealand’s trade balance is coming up next and a narrower surplus of 420M NZD compared to the earlier 578M NZD reading is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

964

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 27, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed run at the start of the week as weaker than expected durable goods orders kept gains limited. Headline durable goods orders fell 1.1% versus the projected 0.5% drop while the core reading had a 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% gain. US CB consumer confidence is due next and a dip from 117.9 to 116.1 is eyed, but the bigger mover could be Fed head Yellen’s testimony.

EUR

The euro also had a mixed run as it advanced to the yen but gave up ground to commodity currencies. German Ifo business climate improved from 114.6 to 115.1, outpacing the consensus at 114.7. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today but ECB head Draghi has a speech lined up.

GBP

The pound gained some support from news that PM May has finally been able to strike a coalition with the DUP. BOE Governor Carney has a testimony today and his previous one was more dovish than expected. The BOE Financial Stability Report is also up for release.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker as risk appetite came into play and there were no reports out of Switzerland to give it a boost. The Swiss economic schedule is still empty for the upcoming trading sessions so market sentiment could keep pushing the franc unless currency-specific events carry more weight.

JPY

The yen has been off to a weak start this week as risk-taking has been in play. There have been no major reports out yet so it’s tough to pinpoint the actual catalyst for the move, besides stops getting hit on technical breaks. There are no reports due from Japan in the upcoming sessions so market sentiment could determine whether the yen pairs can keep climbing or not.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls raked in gains earlier on as risk appetite was present at the start of this week. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next and a narrower surplus of 420 million NZD versus the earlier 578 million NZD is expected. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies in the next trading session so commodity prices could determine where they might be headed next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

965

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 28, 2017)

USD

The dollar barely reacted to Fed head Yellen’s testimony since she merely repeated their statements during the FOMC decision and reiterated that inflation is running below the committee’s long-run objective. FOMC members Harker and Kashkari didn’t cause any big moves for the dollar as well. US pending home sales are due next and a 0.9% rebound is eyed.

EUR

The euro enjoyed a strong boost when ECB head Draghi hinted that they could withdraw stimulus at some point, reviving speculations of tapering. There were no major reports out of the region and only medium-tier figures, namely German import prices and Italian preliminary CPI, are lined up next.

GBP

The pound was still under some selling pressure as its other European currency rivals took most of the gains. BOE Governor Carney had a speech that sounded mostly cautious, but the CBI realized sales index posted a strong climb from 2 to 12, outpacing the consensus at 4. BOE Governor Carney has another speech coming up.

CHF

The franc followed the euro’s tracks in rallying against its peers. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then but the improved sentiment in the region shored up the currency. The Credit Suisse economic expectations index is due next ad an improvement over the earlier 30.8 figure could mean more franc gains. UBS will also print its consumption indicator.

JPY

The yen gave up more ground to its peers as risk sentiment continued to improve and traders still favored the dollar over the Japanese currency. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy recently but Kuroda did hint that they are reluctant to withdraw stimulus. He has another speech coming up.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to rake in gains against lower-yielders but gave up ground to European currencies. BOC Governor Poloz has a speech lined up and he previously gave an upbeat assessment and outlook for Canada, which could shore up the Loonie again even with weaker oil prices. New Zealand’s trade balance turned out weaker than expected at 103 million NZD versus 420 million NZD while the earlier reading was downgraded.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

966

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 29, 2017)

USD

The dollar gave up more ground to its counterparts as pending home sales turned out weaker than expected. The report printed a 0.8% decline versus the estimated 0.9% increase while the earlier figure was downgraded to show a 1.7% slide. Initial jobless claims and the final GDP reading are due next, although these aren’t expected to have a huge impact on the dollar unless there are big surprises.

EUR

The euro enjoyed a strong boost after Draghi gave hawkish hints but the gains were erased when policymaker Constancio clarified that inflationary pressures are still weak and that stimulus is needed to prop up price levels. Many also cautioned that markets may have misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks. German and Spanish preliminary CPI readings are still lined up and strong readings could revive the shared currency.

GBP

The pound staged a rally late in the day as BOE head Carney sounded hawkish himself. This is in contrast to his earlier dovish tone as he signaled that further gains in inflation could make a rate hike necessary. UK mortgage approvals and net lending to individuals figures are up for release next, but traders could also pay close attention to the vote on the Queen’s Speech.

CHF

The franc continued to advance against most of its peers as sentiment improved in Europe. Swiss data turned out mixed, with the UBS consumption indicator up from 1.34 to 1.39 and the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Index down from 30.8 to 20.7. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was still losing ground to its counterparts as BOJ head Kuroda expressed hesitation to tighten or reduce bond purchases. Japan’s retail sales report is due next and a lower read of 2.6% is eyed, compared to the earlier 3.2% gain. Traders could also price in expectations ahead of the inflation reports due at the end of this week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie led the pack as it shrugged of the surprise buildup in EIA crude oil stockpiles. The increase of 0.1 million barrels was still lower than the 0.8 million barrels reported by the API so bulls came into play. BOC Governor Poloz also reiterated their relatively upbeat stance, signaling that they’re done cutting rates. Australia’s HIA new home sales is due next and New Zealand will report its ANZ business confidence index.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

967

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 30, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was mostly weaker against its peers even though the final GDP reading enjoyed an upgrade from 1.2% to 1.4% instead of staying unchanged as expected. Personal spending and income, along with the core PCE price index, are up for release today and stronger than expected results could still shore up the currency.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to some of its gains when medium-tier reports turned out better than expected. German preliminary CPI is up 0.2% instead of staying flat while the GfK consumer climate index improved from 10.4 to 10.6 instead of staying unchanged. German retail sales and French consumer spending reports are lined up today.

GBP

The pound continued its ascent as BOE member Haldane reiterated his hawkish views and Governor Carney previously admitted that some removal of stimulus might be needed if inflationary pressures keep rising. UK net lending to individuals was better than expected as well. UK current account balance and final GDP readings are up for release next.

CHF

The franc held on to its gains as sentiment improved in Europe. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then and the KOF economic barometer is due today. A rise from 101.6 to 102.5 is expected, and this could spur more gains for the Swiss currency.

JPY

Yen weakness was still in play as bond sold off worldwide, mostly due to the pickup in risk appetite. BOJ head Kuroda also expressed reluctance to reduce stimulus, keeping the Japanese central bank behind its peers on the tightening curve. Japanese household spending and core inflation reports are up for release next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls raked in more gains as risk appetite extended its stay. Australia’s HIA new home sales posted a 1.1% increase, outpacing the earlier 0.8% uptick, while New Zealand reported a higher ANZ business confidence index of 24.8 from the earlier 14.9 figure. Chinese official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are lined up next, with strong figures likely to keep risk-taking in play.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

968

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 03, 2017)

USD

The US dollar managed to chalk up some gains last Friday on profit-taking and strong US data. Personal income was stronger than expected at 0.4% versus 0.3% while personal spending came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick. The Chicago PMI and revised UoM consumer sentiment index also surpassed estimates while the core PCE price index printed the expected 0.1% gain. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 54.9 to 55.0 is eyed.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains even with stronger than expected flash CPI readings. The headline figure dipped from 1.4% to 1.3% versus the 1.2% consensus while the core reading rose from 0.9% to 1.1% vs. the 1.0% estimate. German and French consumer spending numbers also turned out stronger than expected. Final manufacturing PMI readings and the region’s unemployment rate are due today.

GBP

The pound had a mixed run as medium-tier releases also turned out mixed. The final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.2% as expected while the current account balance beat consensus. Business investment was unchanged at 0.6% as expected. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a dip from 56.7 to 56.4 is eyed.

CHF

The franc gave up some ground to its rivals as profit-taking took place on Friday. Swiss data was actually better than expected with the KOF economic barometer up from 102.0 to 105.5 versus the projected 102.5 figure. Swiss retail sales is due today and a 0.8% year-over-year decline compared to the earlier 1.2% drop is expected.

JPY

The yen was still the weakest in the bunch as Japanese inflation readings were weaker than expected. In particular, Tokyo’s core figure was flat instead of posting the projected 0.2% uptick. Preliminary industrial production slumped 3.3% versus the projected 3.1% decline. Earlier today, the Tankan survey reported gains for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, although the latter came up short.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls are off to a good start after China’s Caixin PMI turned out stronger than expected. This follows last week’s official PMI figures, which also reflected gains for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

969

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 04, 2017)

USD

The US dollar staged a strong rebound against its peers when the ISM manufacturing PMI beat expectations. The reading climbed from 54.9 to 57.8 versus the projected 55.0 figure, buoyed by stronger hiring, new orders, and production. The index for prices dropped while inventories slid also. US banks are closed for the Fourth of July holiday today so low liquidity is expected.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent wins as final manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies saw some downgrades. In addition, the Spanish manufacturing PMI dipped from 55.4 to 54.7 instead of improving to 55.6. Only the Spanish unemployment change report is due from the euro zone today and analysts are expecting to see a 120.3K drop in joblessness.

GBP

The pound chalked up losses across the board after the UK manufacturing PMI turned out weaker than expected. The reading dropped from a downgraded 56.3 figure to 54.3 instead of improving to 56.4. UK construction PMI is due today and a fall from 56 to 55 is eyed, with a weaker than expected result likely to push the UK currency much lower.

CHF

The franc gave up ground to the dollar and the comdolls but managed to hold steady versus the pound. Swiss retail sales turned out better than expected with a 0.3% year-over-year decline versus the projected 0.8% drop and the earlier 0.9% slide. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen resumed its slide against its counterparts as rising US bond yields drew traders away from the lower-yielding Japanese currency. The Tankan manufacturing index is up from 17 to 12 versus the consensus at 15 while the non-manufacturing index rose from 20 to 23, just a notch short of the estimate at 24. Japanese consumer confidence took a hit as the index dipped from 43.6 to 43.3. The BOJ core CPI is due today and a rise from 0.2% to 0.3% is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a good start after China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI returned to industry expansion with a rise from 49.6 to 50.4. Canadian banks were closed for the holiday but the Loonie managed to rake in gains on higher oil prices due to the dip in US rig counts. Australian retail sales and the RBA statement are lined up next. A slower rise in consumer spending is eyed and no rate changes are expected from the Australian central bank.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

970

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 05, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance as traders were out on a Fourth of July holiday. Markets reopen today and the factory orders report is due, with analysts expecting to see a larger 0.4% decline compared to the earlier 0.2% dip. The FOMC minutes are also lined up and this should provide clues on when the Fed might hike rates next or start unwinding their balance sheet.

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker for the day after the Spanish unemployment change report fell short of estimates. Unemployment fell by 98.3K versus the projected reduction of 120.3K and the earlier 111.9K drop. Final services PMI and retail sales data are lined up today.

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot as the UK construction PMI also reflected a slowdown in industry growth just like the manufacturing sector. The reading fell from 56.0 to 54.8 versus the projected dip to 55.0. The services PMI is due today and this might have a more pronounced impact on sterling since the industry accounts for a larger chunk of overall growth. Analysts are expecting to see a drop from 53.8 to 53.6.

CHF

The franc edged slightly lower as there were no reports from the Swiss economy to keep it supported. There are still no major reports lined up today so franc price action could depend on market sentiment or on currency-specific events.

JPY

The yen was one of the weakest performers for the day as jitters over the North Korean missile test launch weighed on the Asian currency. The BOJ core CPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3% as expected. There are no reports due from Japan today but bond yields could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie extended its gains once more even as crude oil dipped and the Canadian manufacturing PMI indicated a slowdown in industry growth. Australia reported an improvement in its AIG services index from 51.5 to 54.8 while New Zealand yielded a 0.4% drop in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction. ANZ commodity prices posted a 2.1% gain, slower than the previous 2.1% rise.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

971

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 06, 2017)

USD

The US dollar rallied ahead of the FOMC minutes release but retreated upon seeing that committee members are still divided when it comes to their tightening and unwinding time line. Some thought that balance sheet reinvestment should start in a couple of months while others preferred waiting until later in the year or early next year. US ADP non-farm employment change data and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI are lined up today and another batch of strong readings could boost NFP expectations.

EUR

The euro was still mostly treading sideways as final services PMI readings came in mixed. Retail sales for the region came in line with expectations of a 0.2% gain. German factory orders, which could show a 1.9% rebound, and ECB minutes are due today. Any indication that the central bank is shifting to a less dovish stance could spur more gains for the shared currency.

GBP

The pound is under a bit of pressure as its services PMI came in slightly weaker than expected. The reading slipped from 53.8 to 53.4 in June, lower than the projected dip to 53.6 to reflect a slower pace of industry growth in line with the manufacturing and construction sectors. There are no major reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was able to regain a bit of ground even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. Today has the CPI lined up and a flat reading is eyed, slower than the earlier 0.2% uptick in price levels, but an upside surprise could mean more gains for the Swiss currency.

JPY

The yen was able to benefit from risk-off vibes in the Asian region as traders turned their attention to North Korea’s nuclear missile launch test. Although the missile landed near Japanese territory, the safe-haven currency fared better than its US counterpart as the hermit nation aims to target US soil. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie returned some of its recent wins when crude oil took a large hit on ongoing tensions between Saudi and Qatar. The former previously gave a list of demands and the deadline is approaching for Qatar to comply before any further sanctions are imposed. Australia’s trade balance is coming up and a wider surplus of 1.00 billion AUD versus the earlier 0.56 billion AUD figure is expected. US crude oil inventories are also due and a 2.4 million draw is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

972

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 07, 2017)

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent wins when the ISM non-manufacturing PMI’s jobs component and the ADP non-farm employment change hinted at a weaker NFP read. Although the headline reading rose from 56.9 to 57.4 to reflect stronger industry growth, the jobs index fell from 57.8 to 55.8 to reflect a slowdown. The ADP figure came in at 158K versus 184K and the earlier reading was downgraded. Analysts are expecting to see a 175K increase in hiring for the NFP and a 0.3% uptick in average hourly earnings.

EUR

The euro enjoyed a strong surge after the ECB minutes revealed that policymakers are indeed looking into policy adjustments, reviving taper talks for the central bank. German and French industrial production numbers are lined up today, along with Italian retail sales and the French trade balance, and strong readings could keep traders bullish on the shared currency.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to its recent gains and go for more as another round of hawkish hints boosted rate hike expectations. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 0.5% gain is eyed, higher than the earlier 0.2% uptick. Industrial production is expected to be up by 0.4%. The Halifax HPI is also due and a 0.2% uptick is expected.

CHF

The franc also regained ground against its peers as sentiment improved in the European region. Swiss CPI was actually weaker than expected with a 0.1% dip in price levels instead of the projected flat reading. Swiss jobless rate and the SNB foreign currency reserves are lined up today, and a large pickup in the latter could signal central bank intervention.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it reacted to country-specific flows, giving up ground to European currencies while advancing against comdolls. There were no reports out of the Japanese currency yesterday, although it did draw safe-haven support due to the North Korean ICBM test launch. Japanese average cash earnings and leading indicators are due today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent gains as risk appetite took a hit. Australia’s trade balance beat expectations with a higher 2.47B AUD surplus. Crude oil ticked higher on the larger than expected draw of 6.3 million barrels in the EIA report but the Loonie was unable to hold on to its gains when the Canadian trade balance missed estimates. Underlying data did show healthy gains in imports and exports, although energy shipments were still lower. Canada’s jobs report is also due today and a slower gain of 11.4K in hiring is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

973

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 10, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was able to rebound against most of its counterparts on Friday thanks to stronger than expected NFP results. The report showed a 222K increase in hiring versus the projected 175K gain while the May reading was upgraded from 138K to 152K. The Fed labor market conditions index and the consumer credit report are up for release today.

EUR

The euro held on to its recent gains, buoyed by a less dovish ECB minutes that hinted at the possibility of tapering. Economic reports turned out mostly stronger than expected on Friday, led by German and French industrial production figures. Italian retail sales missed the mark but the French trade balance came in line with consensus. German trade balance and the euro zone Sentix investor confidence index are due today.

GBP

The pound took a sharp tumble when another batch of reports indicated a potential slowdown. Manufacturing production dropped by 0.2% versus the projected 0.5% uptick while industrial production slid by 0.1% instead of posting the expected 0.4% gain. There are no reports due from the UK economy today but the attention seems to be returning to Brexit talks and the UK government’s weakening position.

CHF

The franc had a strong start but gave up its gains later on in the day as safe-haven flows returned to the dollar. SNB foreign currency reserves actually ticked lower from 694 billion CHF to 693 billion CHF to signal that the central bank isn’t intervening in the currency market. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment and currency-specific events could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen continued to slide lower against its peers, especially after the strong US NFP report revived dollar demand. Earlier today, Japanese core machinery orders and current account balance missed expectations, setting the tone for a potentially downbeat BOJ statement next week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as they continued to advance versus the yen but dipped against the dollar. Canada also printed stronger than expected jobs data as employment rose by 45.3K versus 11.4K and the unemployment rate improved from 6.6% to 6.5%. Chinese CPI and PPI are due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

974

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 11, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was stuck in consolidation against most of its peers as traders took a break after the NFP rallies. The Fed labor market conditions index dipped from 3.3 to 1.5 versus the consensus at 2.5 but still chalked up its 13th consecutive positive reading. Consumer credit also ticked higher to reflect stronger financial confidence. The NFIB small business index and JOLTS job openings data are lined up today, along with final wholesale inventories and FOMC member Brainard’s speech.

EUR

The euro gave back some of its recent wins to the Aussie and Loonie but managed to hold steady against the rest of its peers. The German trade balance widened from a surplus of 19.7 billion EUR to 20.3 billion EUR and the Sentix investor confidence index dipped from 28.4 to 28.3. Only the Italian industrial production report is due today and a 0.5% rebound is eyed.

GBP

The pound had a mixed run as it was stuck in consolidation to the dollar, euro, and yen, weaker against the Aussie and Loonie, but stronger against the Kiwi. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today saw a 1.2% rebound in the BRC retail sales monitor. MPC members Haldane and Broadbent are set to give testimonies today and hawkish remarks could lift the UK currency.

CHF

The franc weakened against most of its major counterparts as risk-taking came into play. There were no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment and currency-specific action could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was off to a good start but later on returned its gains to its rivals. Economic data from Japan was weaker than expected as core machinery orders slumped by 3.6% instead of posting the estimated 1.7% gain while the current account surplus fell from 1.81 trillion JPY to 1.40 trillion JPY. There are no major reports lined up from Japan today so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdoll group had a mixed performance, with the Aussie and Loonie raking in gains and the Kiwi giving up ground. The Canadian currency is still enjoying its gains after the strong jobs report last Friday and traders are pricing in an upbeat BOC decision later this week. Meanwhile, the Aussie shrugged off weaker than expected Chinese CPI of 1.5% versus the consensus at 1.6%. Australia’s NAB business confidence and home loans data are due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

975

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 12, 2017)

USD

The dollar was mostly lower against its peers on mixed Fed rhetoric and downbeat medium-tier data. Both final wholesale inventories and JOLTS job openings data came in below expectations. Fed Chairperson Yellen has a testimony scheduled today and market watchers are eager to find out about her views on the latest NFP report and its impact on Fed policy.

EUR

The euro surged against its peers as it served as the safe-haven in the European region. Italian industrial production came in stronger than expected at 0.7% versus the projected 0.5% uptick. German WPI and the region’s industrial production numbers are lined up today, with the former expected to show a 0.2% rebound and the latter possibly showing a 1.0% jump.

GBP

The pound was off to a good start but it wound up giving up a lot of its recent gains when MPC member Broadbent was not as hawkish as many expected. He focused more on Brexit trade risks during his speech and how it could impact costs and business activity. UK jobs data is due today and the claimant count could come in at 10.5K versus the earlier 7.3K increase. The average earnings index might slip from 2.1% to 1.8% to put more downside pressure on consumer spending.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its peers even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. There are still no reports lined up today so the currency could move to the tune of market sentiment and currency-specific events.

JPY

The yen was also a big loser but it managed to regain some ground to the dollar. Japanese preliminary machine tool orders surged by 31.1% on a year-over-year basis but traders are still pricing in dovish BOJ remarks for next week. The tertiary industry activity index is due today and a 0.5% decline is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a weak start but recovered later in the day. Australia’s NAB business confidence index improved from 8 to 9 while Canada’s housing starts beat expectations at 213K. The BOC is set to make its policy decision today and hawkish remarks are eyed, although profit-taking scenarios could also come into play. US crude oil inventories data will also be released and a draw of 3.2 million barrels in stockpiles is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

976

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 13, 2017)

USD

The US dollar gave back some of its recent gains as Yellen downplayed the strong jobs figures while acknowledging that weak inflation remains a topic of discussion. She did mention that balance sheet unwinding could begin later this year. US PPI and initial jobless claims are due next, along with another speech by Fed head Yellen.

EUR

The euro gave up ground against most of its counterparts even after the region’s industrial production report printed a stronger than expected 1.3% gain. German WPI fell flat instead of posting the projected 0.2% rebound. German and French final CPI readings are due next.

GBP

The pound enjoyed a strong rally after the UK jobs figures came in mostly stronger than expected. Claimant count rose by only 6K versus the projected 10.3K increase in joblessness while the unemployment rate improved from 4.6% to 4.5%. The average earnings index dipped from 2.1% to 1.8% as expected, upping the pressure on the BOE to act to curb overall inflation so that consumer spending can keep up. Only the BOE credit conditions survey is due next.

CHF

The franc resumed its slide against most of its counterparts even though there were no reports out of the Swiss economy. The Swiss PPI is due today and a flat reading is eyed, which would still be an improvement over the previous 0.3% decline. A stronger than expected read could revive gains for the currency while a disappointing figure could renew talks of intervention.

JPY

The yen had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to country-specific events. Data from Japan was slightly better than expected at a 0.1% dip versus the projected 0.5% drop and there are no reports due today. Risk sentiment and global bond prices could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie enjoyed a strong boost from the hawkish BOC hike as the central bank increased rates by 0.25% while signaling scope for further hikes. Policymakers judged the slowdown in inflation as a result of temporary factors and upgraded their growth forecasts for the year. China’s trade balance came in stronger than expected at a surplus of 294 billion CNY, which is positive for the Aussie and Kiwi, as well as overall risk sentiment. EIA crude oil inventories also posted a larger than expected draw of 7.6 million barrels in stockpiles.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

977

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 14, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was unable to establish a clear direction in trading even with several top-tier reports released. Headline PPI came in better than expected with a 0.1% uptick versus the projected flat reading while the core version of the report also showed a 0.1% increase, short of the 0.2% consensus. Initial jobless claims declined from the other week’s 250K to 247K to show positive hiring momentum. Fed head Yellen had another testimony in which she shared that the balance sheet runoff could impact the yield curve and that this, in turn, could influence their future rate adjustments. CPI readings are due today and small gains are eyed, along with June retail sales data.

EUR

The euro tossed and turned as ECB chatter pushed the shared currency around. There have been rumors that Governor Draghi will join the Jackson Hole Symposium and that he might discuss the idea of tapering stimulus then. As for data, German and French final CPI readings were unchanged and trade balance readings from Italy and the euro zone are lined up today.

GBP

The pound was able to recoup its earlier losses to the dollar, yen, and euro but was still lower against the comdolls. There were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday, which explains the currency-specific price action of pound pairs. There are still no reports lined up from the UK today so similar price action could be seen.

CHF

The franc was one of the biggest losers in recent sessions as traders showed stronger appetite for higher-yielding currencies, leaving the SNB’s negative deposit rate less appealing. Swiss PPI also turned out weaker than expected with a 0.1% dip versus the projected flat reading. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen also gave up ground to most of its counterparts as risk-taking was in play. There have been no major reports out of Japan yesterday while today has the revised industrial production figure due. Apart from that, global bond yields and USD demand could also push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to chalk up gains against the rest of their peers thanks to the pickup in risk appetite. Chinese trade balance also beat expectations, sending positive prospects for its trade partners Australia and New Zealand. There are no other reports lined up from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day so risk sentiment could be the main driver of price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

978

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 17, 2017)

USD

The US dollar tumbled across the board on Friday when economic reports came in mostly weaker than expected. Headline CPI posted a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick while the core CPI had a meager 0.1% gain instead of the estimated 0.2% increase. Headline and core retail sales were down 0.2% while preliminary UoM consumer sentiment also fell short of estimates. Only the Empire State manufacturing index is due today and a fall from 19.8 to 15.2 is expected.

EUR

The euro had a mixed round as it regained ground to the dollar and yen but caved to the pound and commodity currencies. Economic data came in mixed as the Italian trade balance beat expectations but the region’s reading fell short. Euro zone final CPI readings are lined up today and traders are not expecting any revisions.

GBP

The pound was able to stay afloat on Friday even though there were no major reports out of the UK. Prior to this, UK jobs data beat expectations but wage inflation indicated weakness, possibly upping the pressure on the BOE to act. There are no major reports due today but traders might start pricing in expectations for the UK CPI report.

CHF

The franc weakened against its peers as risk appetite stayed in play. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so market sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was able to regain some ground against the dollar but was in a weak spot to its peers leading up to this week’s BOJ decision. Japan’s industrial production figure was downgraded to show a larger 3.6% slide versus the initially reported 3.3% drop. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness once more as risk appetite stayed in play. Chinese reports are up for release today, with slight dips in GDP, retail sales, and fixed asset investment eyed. Industrial production is estimated to hold steady at 6.5%. New Zealand will be printing its Q2 CPI as well and analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% increase, much slower than the earlier 1.0% gain.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way