Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 18, 2017)

USD

The dollar managed to edge slightly higher even though data came in weaker than expected. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 19.8 to 9.8 to indicate a slower pace of industry growth compared to the projected dip to 15.2. Only the US import prices report is due today and a 0.2% drop is eyed, smaller than the earlier 0.3% decline.

EUR

The euro was able to hold its ground as the return of Brexit concerns in the UK drove safe-haven demand for the shared currency. Final CPI readings were unchanged at 1.3% for the headline reading and 1.1% for the core figure. The German ZEW economic sentiment index is due next and a dip from 18.6 to 17.8 is expected. The region’s ZEW index is slated to fall from 37.7 to 37.2.

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot once more as Brexit negotiations took place. UK CPI is up for release today, with the headline figure projected to hold steady at 2.9% while the core reading could also stay unchanged at 2.6%. PPI input prices could chalk up a 0.8% decline while the output price could see a meager 0.1% uptick. BOE Governor Carney has a speech as well so it could bring more volatility for pound pairs.

CHF

The franc regained some ground against its peers as risk-off flows returned. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so risk sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was able to get back on its feet when risk-taking paused in the latter trading sessions. Japanese banks were closed for the holiday yesterday and there are no reports due today so risk sentiment could still be in the driver’s seat.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a strong start when China printed upbeat data. GDP rose by 6.9% instead of showing the slower 6.8% consensus while retail sales and industrial production reflected strong domestic demand. However, the Kiwi returned its gains when New Zealand’s quarterly CPI posted a flat reading instead of the projected 0.2% gain. RBA minutes are due next and New Zealand will have its GDT auction in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 19, 2017)

USD

The dollar was dragged lower by the healthcare bill setback in Senate. As it turns out, at least three Republicans are set to vote against the bill, along with Democrat lawmakers. This reminded market watchers of the lack of progress in terms of fiscal policy, which means that tax reform could be pushed back much later. As for data, import prices posted the 0.2% dip as expected and the NAHB housing market index dipped from 66 to 64 instead of improving to 67. US housing starts and building permits are lined up next.

EUR

The euro regained some ground against its counterparts as risk appetite took a hit on Tuesday. Economic data from the region was actually weaker than expected as the German ZEW index slipped from 18.6 to 17.5 versus the 17.8 forecast while the region’s ZEW is down from 37.7 to 35.6 to reflect weaker optimism. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today, leaving traders to price in expectations for the ECB statement tomorrow.

GBP

The pound was one of the weakest performers for the day as UK inflation readings fell short. Headline CPI is down from 2.9% to 2.6% while core CPI dropped from 2.6% to 2.4%, lessening pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was able to regain some ground as risk aversion popped back in the financial markets. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so market sentiment could continue to push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen regained some ground on risk appetite and dollar weakness. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could stay in play or traders might start pricing in expectations for the upcoming BOJ decision.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was on stronger footing after the release of the RBA minutes as policymakers didn’t sound as dovish as some expected. Instead, the central bank struck a neutral tone and signaled less preference for rate cuts than before. New Zealand reported a 0.2% uptick in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction while the API reported a surprise build in inventories. US crude oil stockpiles data from the EIA is due today and analysts are hoping to see a 3.6M reduction.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 20, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed run as it mostly functioned as a counter currency. Data was stronger than expected, with building permits up from 1.17M to 1.25M and housing starts up from 1.12M to 1.22M. Initial jobless claims and the Philly manufacturing index, which could dip from 27.6 to 23.4, are due next.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains as traders are reducing their exposure to the ECB monetary policy statement. No actual rate changes are eyed but traders are hoping to hear more hints of tapering from Governor Draghi. He did drop some upbeat remarks during his previous testimonies but policymakers cautioned that markets may have misinterpreted these comments. German PPI and euro zone current account balance is also eyed.

GBP

The pound is in a weak spot due to Brexit concerns and weak CPI data, which has lowered BOE rate hike expectations. There have been no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the retail sales report due. A 0.4% rebound over the previous 1.2% decline is eyed but another drop could remind traders that consumer spending is reeling from higher price levels.

CHF

The franc remained in a weak spot against its rivals on resurfacing jitters in the European region. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the trade balance on tap. A narrower surplus of 2.89 billion CHF is eyed compared to the previous 3.40 billion CHF figure.

JPY

The yen regained a bit of ground as traders liquidated some of their short holdings ahead of the BOJ decision. No actual policy changes are eyed but dovish remarks or jawboning could push the yen lower once more. However, a neutral stance could lead to some gains for the Japanese currency. Earlier today, the trade balance was printed and a lower surplus of 0.08T JPY was seen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to hold on to most of their recent gains as EIA crude oil stockpiles posted a larger than expected draw of 4.7 million barrels. This marks the third consecutive weekly drop in inventories so global oversupply concerns appear to be easing. Australia is set to report is jobs figure next and a 14.4K gain in hiring is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 21, 2017)

USD

The dollar is still being bogged down by issues surrounding the Trump administration, from the failure to pass the Obamacare repeal in Senate to the ongoing investigation into Trump’s dealings with Russia. Lead investigator Mueller said that they will be looking into the President’s business transactions with Russians in the past. Data from the US was mostly stronger than expected as initial jobless claims and the CB leading index beat forecasts, but the Philly Fed index chalked up a steeper fall from 27.6 to 19.5. There are no reports due from the US economy today.

EUR

The euro started edging lower ahead of the ECB decision as traders reduced their exposure to the event but the shared currency regained ground even after Governor Draghi dropped dovish remarks. The ECB Governor acknowledged that growth is picking up but that this has yet to translate to stronger inflation, which he also mentioned isn’t quite up to the level for them to start discussing tapering. There are no reports due from the euro zone today, so traders could keep pricing in their reaction that it’s only a matter of time before the ECB reduces asset purchases.

GBP

The pound was still in a weak spot even though the UK reported stronger than expected retail sales for June. Consumer spending rebounded by 0.6% while the previous figure enjoyed a small upgrade from an initially reported 1.2% slump to just 1.1%. Only the UK public sector net borrowing report is due today but the focus could remain on how shaky the economy is looking with Brexit discussions ongoing.

CHF

The franc gave up ground to most of its peers as traders flocked back to the euro instead. Also, Swiss trade balance turned out weaker than expected with a surplus of 2.81 billion CHF versus the projected 2.89 billion CHF figure and the earlier 3.39 billion CHF reading. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen got back on its feet against some of its peers as the BOJ refrained from dropping more dovish remarks in their statement. The central bank did scale back its CPI forecast but this barely drew bears back in. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy today so risk sentiment and reactions to USD movements could stay in play.

Commodity Currencies Outlook (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed round as they returned some of their gains to the euro and yen while advancing to other counterparts. Australia’s jobs report was slightly weaker than expected with a 14K gain in June and a downgrade in the May figure. Canada has its CPI and retail sales figures up for release next and strong readings could reinforce BOC hike expectations. RBA policymakers Debelle and Bullock are set to give speeches as well.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 24, 2017)

USD

The US dollar remains in a weak spot leading up to this week’s FOMC statement. No actual rate changes are expected but traders are expecting a less upbeat outlook and some more details on when the balance sheet runoff might start. There were no reports out of the US on Friday while today has flash manufacturing and services PMIs on tap.

EUR

The euro held on to its gains versus the dollar but retreated to the yen on lack of BOJ dovishness. There were no major reports out of the euro zone on Friday while today has the flash manufacturing and services PMI readings from the top economies. Stronger than expected data could confirm that it’s only a matter of time before the ECB tapers asset purchases.

GBP

The pound was one of the weakest performers as downbeat CPI weighed on BOE rate hike prospects even as UK retail sales beat expectations. Public sector borrowing was also weaker than expected. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc had a mixed round as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so market sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen advanced on the lack of BOJ dovishness in their policy statement earlier in the week and on expectations of a more cautious FOMC statement this week. There were no reports out of Japan on Friday while today has the flash manufacturing PMI. A dip from 52.4 to 52.2 was reported for July, lower than the estimated drop to 52.3.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls broke higher to the US dollar but gave up some ground to the Japanese yen. Data from Canada turned out mixed as the core retail sales figure missed expectations while the headline figure printed a 0.6% gain, outpacing the 0.3% consensus. Headline CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% dip. Only the Canadian wholesale sales report is due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 25, 2017)

USD

The US dollar drew a bid in the latest New York session upon seeing slightly stronger than expected flash PMI readings. The flash manufacturing PMI is up from 52.0 to 53.2, higher than the forecast at 52.3, while the services PMI held steady from an upgraded 54.2 figure. Existing home sales printed a dip to 5.52M. The CB consumer confidence index is due today and a fall from 118.9 to 116.5 is expected.

EUR

The euro was unable to sustain its climb when euro zone PMI readings fell short of estimates, with the exception of the French flash manufacturing PMI. The German Ifo business climate index is lined up today and a dip from 115.1 to 114.9 is expected. Another weak result could continue to dampen ECB tapering expectations.

GBP

The pound managed to regain some ground, despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. Today has the CBI industrial order expectations figure lined up, which could fall from 16 to 12, along with a speech by BOE MPC member Haldane who might reiterate his dovish views.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it mostly reacted to its counterparts. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday to give the currency a strong direction anyway, and there are still no reports due today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen gave up some ground when the dollar recovered upon seeing upbeat medium-tier data. Traders had been buying up the Japanese currency leading up to the FOMC statement in anticipation of less hawkish remarks, but the latest batch of PMI reports gave hope that the Fed could maintain its rate hike timeline. The BOJ minutes were released but failed to spur volatility for yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was one of the biggest winners for the day as the pickup in crude oil boosted the Canadian currency. After the OPEC meeting with non-OPEC members like Russia, Saudi Arabia pledged that they will push for significant measures to boost the commodity price. Nigeria also made an informal pledge to keep their production levels limited. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next, along with a speech by RBNZ policymaker McDermott.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 26, 2017)

USD

The US dollar drew a strong boost from news that the Senate has voted to open the debate on healthcare reform. VP Mike Pence broke the tie and opened the floor for amendments on the current bill, reviving hope that the Trump administration could make progress in its fiscal agenda. Economic data also came in strong ahead of today’s FOMC decision, which might shed more light on the Fed’s balance sheet runoff timing and the odds of another rate hike in September or December.

EUR

The euro held steady against most of its counterparts as data came in mixed. The German Ifo business climate index rose from 115.2 to 116.0 to reflect improving conditions versus the projected dip to 114.9. However, German import prices chalked up a steeper than expected 1.1% slide instead of the estimated 0.7% dip to signal weaker price pressures. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound enjoyed a bit of a boost ahead of BOE member Haldane’s speech as many expected him to shift to a less dovish stance. UK CBI industrial order expectations fell from 16 to 10 versus the projected reading at 12. The UK preliminary GDP reading is due next and a slightly stronger than expected growth figure of 0.3% is eyed versus the earlier 0.2% uptick.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to currency-specific factors on the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. Today has the UBS consumption indicator and the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations index on tap, and improvements could shore up the franc while weak figures could lead to declines.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to most of its peers, owing to the strength in the US dollar. Traders continue to price in positive expectations for the FOMC statement, which is driving bond yields higher and leading to weaker demand for the lower-yielding yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie scored another round of gains after the API report revealed a much larger than expected draw in stockpiles, easing oversupply concerns and lifting expectations for the EIA report. This is expected to report a draw of 3.3 million barrels in stockpiles. New Zealand reported a larger than expected trade surplus of 242M NZD versus the projected 147M NZD figure and the earlier 74M NZD surplus. Australia’s headline CPI missed the mark with a 0.2% uptick versus the expected 0.4% increase but the core reading came in line with consensus at 0.5%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 27, 2017)

USD

The US dollar advanced on positive expectations for the FOMC but soon gave up its gains and more when the statement disappointed. Instead of giving more details on their balance sheet reinvestment, the Fed simply said that the runoff would start “relatively soon.” Market participants also noted a slight downgrade in inflation assessment from “declined recently” to “declined” and “running below 2%”. US durable goods orders data is due next and weaker than expected reports could continue to dampen Fed rate hike hopes.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was still in a weak spot against the commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday, which explains the shared currency’s lack of direction. The Spanish unemployment rate and the German GfK consumer climate index are due today, with the latter expected to tick higher from 10.6 to 10.7.

GBP

The pound was able to hold its ground when the UK GDP reading came in line with estimates of 0.3% growth versus the previous 0.2% expansion for Q2. Components showed declines in industrial production and construction while the services sector posted 0.5% growth. CBI realized sales data is due today and a fall from 12 to 10 is expected.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its peers, except against the dollar, even though data turned out stronger than expected. The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.32 to 1.38 while the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations index surged from 20.7 to 34.7. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but still chalked up losses to the commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of Japan but it looks like risk-taking had been in play and weighed on the lower-yielding currency. There are still no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were mostly stronger against their peers, led by the Loonie which drew a strong boost from crude oil. The EIA reported a draw of 7.2 million barrels in stockpiles versus the projected reduction of 3.3 million barrels, marking a full month in falling inventories. Australian import prices data are due next and a weaker 0.7% uptick is eyed compared to the earlier 1.2% gain.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 28, 2017)

USD

The US dollar bounced back from its FOMC tumble when some medium-tier reports beat expectations. Headline durable goods orders jumped 6.5% versus the projected 3.5% increase while core durable goods was slightly weaker at 0.2% versus 0.4%. The goods trade balance showed a narrower deficit to indicate stronger export activity and a positive contribution to GDP. The advance GDP reading is due later today and a 2.5% expansion is eyed, stronger than the previous 1.4% growth figure.

EUR

Economic data from the euro zone turned out slightly weaker than expected, keeping ECB tapering expectations in play. The German GfK consumer climate index climbed from 10.6 to 10.8, higher than the projected rise to 10.7, while the Spanish unemployment rate improved from 18.8% to 17.2%. French flash GDP, German preliminary CPI, Spanish flash CPI and GDP are all lined up today.

GBP

The UK printed mixed economic reports, with the CBI realized sales index climbing from 12 to 22 instead of dipping to 10 and the GfK consumer confidence index slipping from -10 to -12 instead of improving to -11. There are no reports due from the UK economy today so the pound could take its cue from market sentiment and Brexit updates.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events but it was mostly lower on potential SNB intervention. The KOF economic barometer is up for release today and a rise from 105.5 to 105.9 is expected, possibly renewing some support for the Swiss currency.

JPY

The Japanese yen gave up some ground as dollar demand returned in anticipation of an upbeat advance GDP reading. Earlier today, data from Japan turned out mostly stronger than expected, renewing support for the currency. National core CPI posted a 0.4% gain as expected while the Tokyo core CPI rose by 0.2% versus the estimated 0.1% uptick. The unemployment rate improved from 3.1% to 2.8% and household spending rebounded by 2.3%. Retail sales, however, fell short at a 2.1% year-over-year gain.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to hold on to their recent gains as a bit of risk aversion and profit-taking materialized. Australian import prices dropped 0.1% instead of posting the projected 0.7% gain in Q2. The Loonie was also bogged down by talks of how the Canadian government wasn’t too pleased about the BOC hike. The Canadian monthly GDP is due next and another 0.2% uptick is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 31, 2017)

USD

The US dollar regained some ground to its peers on Friday when GDP data beat expectations. The advanced reading for Q2 showed a 2.6% growth figure versus the projected 2.5% expansion. However, the price index and employment cost index both came short of estimates. Chicago PMI and pending home sales are due today.

EUR

Euro zone data turned out mixed on Friday as German and French preliminary CPI beat expectations while French consumer spending fell short. Euro zone flash CPI readings are due today, with the headline figure projected to hold steady at 1.3% and the core reading projected to stay unchanged at 1.1%. German retail sales is also due and a meager 0.1% uptick is eyed.

GBP

There were no reports released out of the UK economy on Friday. Only the net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data are lined up today so there might not be much volatility for pound pairs unless traders start pricing in expectations for the BOE decision later in the week.

CHF

Switzerland printed stronger than expected economic data on Friday, with the KOF economic barometer up from 105.8 to 106.8 versus the projected 105.9 reading. There are no major reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could move according to market sentiment or SNB intervention threats.

JPY

Japanese reports turned out mostly stronger than expected on Friday, except for the retail sales reading which came in at 2.1% versus 2.3%. Household spending jumped 2.3% year-over-year versus the estimated 0.6% uptick while the Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.2% gain versus the estimated 0.1% increase. Earlier today, the preliminary industrial production report showed a 1.6% rebound as expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Canada’s monthly GDP reading showed 0.6% growth, stronger than the projected 0.2% uptick. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a 1.0% drop in building consents. China’s official manufacturing PMI dipped from 51.7 to 51.4 while the non-manufacturing component fell from 54.9 to 54.5. New Zealand reported a dip in ANZ business confidence from 24.8 to 19.4.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 01, 2017)

USD

The Greenback was under pressure due to internal chaos in the White House and brewing tensions with North Korea. According to two intelligence officials, the latest successful ICBM test signals that the hermit nation could hit most of the US. Data was mixed, with the Chicago PMI posting a larger than expected drop to 58.9 and pending home sales showing a 1.5% rebound. Personal spending and income, along with the core PCE price index, are lined up next.

EUR

The euro continued to advance against most of its peers when the core CPI flash estimate printed stronger than expected results. The headline reading was unchanged at 1.3% as expected but the core version rose from 1.1% to 1.2%. German retail sales also beat expectations with a 1.1% jump versus the 0.1% estimate. Final manufacturing PMIs from its top economies and the euro zone’s flash GDP reading are due today.

GBP

The pound is holding steady leading up to the release of June PMI readings and the BOE decision. Data turned out stronger than expected yesterday as net lending to individuals rose to 5.6 billion GBP while mortgage approvals held steady at 65K. Nationwide HPI is due today, along with the manufacturing PMI which could recover from 54.3 to 54.4.

CHF

The franc kept tumbling against its peers as pairs have been breaking technical levels and drawing more sellers in. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday but the monetary policy divergence with the ECB is probably keeping franc bears in the game. Swiss banks are closed for the holiday today.

JPY

The Japanese yen had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific events. The safe-haven currency appears to be regaining its lost ground to the dollar as the latter faces falling bond yields on the chaos in Washington. The final manufacturing PMI was downgraded slightly from 52.2 to 52.1.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was unable to hold on to its gains even though crude oil ticked higher. Underlying inflation data from Canada printed downbeat results, dashing hopes of another BOC hike in the near future. RMPI fell 3.7% versus the projected 3.2% fall while the IPPI slipped by 1.0%. The RBA decision is due next and no changes to the 1.50% benchmark rate is eyed as the central bank might issue a neutral statement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 02, 2017)

USD

The dollar recovered slightly against its peers when a bit of risk aversion returned to the markets and US data came in mostly in line with estimates. The core PCE price index posted another 0.1% as expected while personal spending ticked up by 0.1% as well, even while personal income was flat. The ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 57.8 to 56.3, slightly lower than the 56.4 estimate. The ADP report is due next and a 187K gain in hiring is eyed.

EUR

The euro was off to a good start as European stocks rallied on the region’s flash GDP report. However, the shared currency retreated when the German bond auction resulted to lower yields. The German unemployment change report showed a larger 9K drop in joblessness while the region’s GDP showed a 0.6% expansion. The Spanish unemployment change report is due next.

GBP

The pound was able to hold its ground thanks to upbeat manufacturing PMI. The reading recovered from 54.2 to 55.1, outpacing the consensus at 54.4. The construction PMI is due next and a dip from 54.8 to 54.3 is eyed but another stronger than expected read could mean more pound gains ahead of the BOE decision later this week.

CHF

The franc was still in a weak spot but managed to recoup its losses when risk aversion returned. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and the SECO consumer climate index. Retail sales are expected to recover by 1.3% while the manufacturing PMI could fall from 60.1 to 58.9. The SECO index is projected to climb from -8 to -3.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events rather than establishing its own direction. The BOJ core CPI held steady at 0.3% instead of dipping to the projected 0.2% figure and the consumer confidence index is due today. Analysts are expecting to seen an improvement from 43.3 to 43.5.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their gains as crude oil and dairy prices dipped. The API reported a surprise build in stockpiles while the GDT auction showed a 1.6% drop in dairy prices. New Zealand also reported a surprise 0.2% drop in hiring for Q2 but the unemployment rate improved from 4.9% to 4.8%. The RBA kept rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected while issuing a relatively neutral statement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 03, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific data and was tossed around by Fed commentary. A couple of Fed officials warned that weak inflation should keep gradual tightening in place while Bullard emphasized that the balance sheet runoff should start this fall. The ADP report showed a weaker than expected 178K gain in hiring versus the projected 187K figure but the previous reading saw a large upgrade from 159K to 191K. Challenger job cuts and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI are due today.

EUR

The euro carried on with its climb to the dollar but at a slower pace. The Spanish unemployment change report showed a smaller than expected 26.9K drop in joblessness versus the projected 66.5K drop and the earlier 98.3K reduction. Final services PMI readings are due today, along with the region’s retail sales figure.

GBP

The pound struggled to hold its ground after the UK construction PMI posted a steeper than expected fall from 54.8 to 51.9. The BOE is set to make their policy statement today and also release its MPC meeting minutes. Three members voted for a hike in the previous meeting so traders are eager to find out if this hawkish bias is sustained. The BOE Inflation Report and UK services PMI are also lined up.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run but was mostly in a weak spot against its counterparts. The SECO consumer climate index improved from -8 to -3 while Swiss retail sales posted a stronger than expected 1.5% year-over-year rebound. The manufacturing PMI was also stronger than expected as it rose from 60.1 to 60.9 instead of falling to 58.9. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen also had a mixed round as it reacted to market sentiment and currency-specific factors. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today so global bond yields and overall risk sentiment could continue pushing yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The EIA reported a draw of 1.5 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles, smaller than the estimated reduction of 3.2 million barrels but a draw nonetheless. Comdolls were a bit weaker for the day as risk aversion was in play for the most part. Earlier today, Australia reported a weaker than expected trade surplus of 0.86 billion AUD.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 04, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed run as it reacted to currency-specific events. Traders seemed hesitant to take large positions ahead of the NFP release since leading indicators have been hinting at a slowdown in hiring. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell from 57.4 to 53.9 while the Challenger job cuts report showed a larger 37.6% drop in layoffs. Analysts are expecting to see a 181K increase in hiring for July, enough to bring the jobless rate down from 4.4% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings could post a stronger 0.3% uptick.

EUR

The euro continued its rally against most of its counterparts even as final services PMI readings turned out mixed. The readings from Spain and Germany saw downgrades while Italy reported an upgrade. German factory orders, Italian retail sales, and the region’s retail PMI are due next.

GBP

The pound suffered a sharp selloff after the BOE statement as fewer policymakers voted to hike rates compared to last time, signaling a shift to a less hawkish bias. The central bank also downgraded its growth forecast while maintaining its positive outlook on inflation. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc was still in a weak spot against most of its counterparts, mostly due to the SNB’s dovish stance and the threat of central bank intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment and SNB expectations could stay in play.

JPY

The Japanese yen was able to take advantage of dollar weakness and risk aversion even as Japanese average cash earnings data printed a weaker than expected 0.4% drop versus the projected 0.5% gain. There are no other reports due from Japan for the rest of the day so yen pairs could take their cues from bond yields and the NFP release.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Risk-off flows dampened gains for the commodity currencies as shifting policy biases weighed on sentiment. Australia reported a smaller than expected trade surplus of 0.86 billion AUD compared to the estimated 1.78 billion AUD figure while previous reading was downgraded. Earlier today, Australian retail sales beat expectations with a 0.3% gain. Canada will release its jobs report next and might show weaker hiring growth of 11.7K compared to the previous 45.3K increase.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 7, 2017)

USD

The US dollar got a boost upon seeing stronger than expected July NFP data. The economy added 209K jobs during the month versus the estimated 187K gain while the June reading enjoyed an upgrade to 231K. Average hourly earnings came in line with expectations of a 0.3% uptick while the jobless rate dipped to 4.3% as expected. Only the Fed labor market conditions index is due today, along with a speech by dovish FOMC member Kashkari.

EUR

The euro returned some of its gains to its peers on profit-taking at the end of the week. Data from the euro zone was actually better than expected as German factory orders surged 1.0% versus the projected 0.6% increase while Italian retail sales printed a higher than expected 0.6% increase. German industrial production data and the region’s Sentix investor confidence index are lined up next.

GBP

The pound held its ground against some of its rivals at the end of the week as traders booked profits off their post-BOE short positions. There were no major reports out of the UK economy on Friday and today has the Halifax HPI lined up. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% rebound in house prices.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday while today has the SNB foreign currency reserves data due. An increase from the earlier 693B CHF reading could be evidence of central bank intervention. The CPI is also lined up and a 0.3% drop in price levels is eyed.

JPY

The yen gave up some ground to its peers when US bond yields ticked higher after the NFP release. Data from Japan was also weaker than expected then as average cash earnings fell 0.4% versus the estimated 0.5% gain. Leading indicators data is due next and an improvement from 104.6% to 106.2% is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent gains to the dollar on Friday. Canada reported a 10.9K gain in hiring versus the projected 13.1K increase and the earlier 45.3K jump. Their unemployment rate fell from 6.5% to 6.3% on weaker labor force participation while the trade balance also disappointed. The Ivey PMI, on the other hand, printed a smaller dip from 61.6 to 60.0 versus the projected 59.2 reading.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 08, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was off to a slow start for the week as there were no major reports released. Two Fed officials shared their thoughts on future policy moves, with both Kashkari and Bullard urging to start the balance sheet runoff soon since this won’t harm the markets. US consumer credit shrank from $18.3 billion to $12.4 billion. The NFIB small business index is due, along with the JOLTS job openings data and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index.

EUR

The euro retreated against most of its counterparts as traders started having doubts on ECB tapering. German industrial production was weaker than expected with a 1.1% fall versus the projected 0.2% uptick. German and French trade balance are due next and upbeat results could lift the shared currency once more.

GBP

The pound was still on weak footing as traders continued adjusting their portfolios to the less hawkish BOE bias and Brexit concerns. The Halifax HPI posted a larger than expected 0.4% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc also tumbled to most of its peers as the SNB foreign currency reserves figure grew from 694 billion CHF to 714 billion CHF, hinting that the central bank may be increasing its forex holdings to keep the franc weak. Swiss CPI posted the estimated 0.3% drop in price levels, following the earlier 0.1% downtick. Swiss jobless rate is due today and no changes from the earlier 3.2% reading is expected.

JPY

The yen regained some ground to its peers as tensions with North Korea drove demand for safe-havens. Japan’s leading indicators improved from 104.6% to 106.3%, slightly higher than the 106.2% consensus. The country’s current account surplus also widened from 1.40T JPY to 1.52T JPY. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls advanced against most of their European counterparts while struggling to the dollar and yen. New Zealand’s quarterly inflation expectations figure slipped from 2.2% to 2.1% while Canadian banks were closed for the holiday. China’s trade balance is up for release next and no changes are eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 09, 2017)

USD

The US dollar staged a strong rally after seeing another round of upbeat medium-tier data. The JOLTS job openings figure came in at a record high of 6.16 million, signaling plenty of hiring opportunities and a likely pickup in employment in the coming months. The NFIB Small Business Index and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index also came in stronger than expected. Final wholesale inventories, preliminary non-farm productivity, and unit labor costs are lined up next.

EUR

The euro retreated to the dollar and yen but managed to advance against commodity currencies as risk appetite weakened. German and French trade balance came in slightly higher than expected to support ECB tapering speculations. Only the Italian industrial production report is due today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% uptick.

GBP

The pound was weighed down by risk aversion and Brexit jitters since there were no major reports to keep it supported. There are still no reports due from the UK economy today so it’s likely that market sentiment could push pound pairs around.

CHF

The franc gave up more ground to the dollar even after the Swiss jobless rate came in line with expectations at 3.2%. It managed to hold its ground against its other rivals since risk-off flows also tend to support the Swiss currency. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen was the biggest winner for the day as it benefitted from risk aversion stemming from the tension with North Korea. The hermit nation has threatened to launch a missile strike on the nearby U.S. territory of Guam. Japanese preliminary machine tool orders are up for release but all eyes and ears are on U.S. and North Korea.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up a lot of ground as risk aversion returned to the markets. Traders are also pricing in downbeat expectations for the RBNZ decision as hiring and inflation have been weak for the past quarter. Australia reported a 1.2% drop in Westpac consumer sentiment data while Chinese CPI fell short of estimates at 1.4% versus 1.5%. The API reported another large draw in crude oil stockpiles so traders are waiting to see if the EIA report will follow suit.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 10, 2017)

USD

The US dollar raked in some gains on risk-off flows but returned some of these when markets calmed down. Data indicated that wage pressures could remain subdued as unit labor costs posted a weaker than expected 0.6% uptick versus the projected 1.1% climb while non-farm productivity picked up. Initial jobless claims and PPI are due today, along with a speech by FOMC member Dudley.

EUR

The euro had a mixed run as it acted as a safe-haven in Europe but weakened to the likes of the yen and dollar. Italy reported a stronger than expected industrial production figure of 1.1% versus the projected 0.2% uptick. French industrial production and Italian trade balance are due next.

GBP

The pound also had a mixed run but was mostly weaker to the euro and the franc. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the manufacturing production and goods trade balance due. These are considered leading indicators of growth and might have a strong impact on pound direction, especially if reports come in weaker than expected.

CHF

The franc carried on with its strong risk-off rally but paused later on in the day as traders grew wary of SNB intervention again. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment related to the North Korean situation could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also a big winner thanks to risk-off flows from North Korea’s missile threats but it also paused from its rally on profit-taking towards the end of the US session. Japanese core machinery orders posted a weaker than expected 1.9% slide versus the estimated 3.6% rebound while PPI came in stronger than expected at 2.9%.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were the weakest of the bunch as risk-taking was dampened by threats of a strike from North Korea. Crude oil ticked slightly higher when the EIA report printed a larger than expected draw of 6.5 million barrels but the Loonie failed to draw much support. The RBNZ kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% as expected while signaling the need for a lower NZD.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 11, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was in a weak spot against its peers, weighed down by weak PPI, downbeat Fed rhetoric, and threats from North Korea. US equity indices chalked up large losses for the day as investors are starting to get worried about an actual strike from Pyongyang while Trump refuses to take a more diplomatic stance. Headline and core PPI fell 0.1% and the CPI readings are due today.

EUR

The euro was unable to make much headway after seeing a miss in French industrial production. The report chalked up a 1.1% drop versus the estimated 0.6% dip but the Italian trade balance managed to beat forecasts. Final CPI readings from Germany and France are due today so upgrades or the lack of downgrades could still be a plus for the shared currency.

GBP

UK economic reports turned out mixed as manufacturing production came in line with estimates, the goods trade balance printed a larger deficit, and the industrial production report beat expectations. Traders still seem to be seeing some signs of resilience in the economy and the lack of top-tier UK data today could keep this sentiment in place.

CHF

The franc was able to score some gains on risk-off moves even as traders are wary of SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so market sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was the consistent winner for the day since it took its share of the dollar’s safe-haven flows. Core machinery orders saw a worse than expected 1.9% drop while PPI jumped from 2.2% to 2.6%, keeping positive inflation expectations supportive of yen gains. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to reel from risk aversion as traders moved their holdings to safe-havens in light of the tension with North Korea. The Kiwi also got dragged lower during RBNZ head Wheeler’s speech when he threatened currency intervention if NZD keeps rallying. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day so market sentiment could be the main driver.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 14, 2017)

USD

US CPI figures came in weaker than expected as the headline and core readings came in at 0.1% versus the projected 0.2% pickup, further dampening September rate hike expectations. There are no major reports lined up from the US today so dollar pairs could take their cues from market sentiment, which is mostly being influenced by the North Korea situation.

EUR

Euro zone data came in mixed with German and French final CPI readings coming in line with estimates and the German WPI printing a worse than expected 0.1% dip versus the projected 0.3% uptick. French preliminary non-farm payrolls turned out stronger than expected with a 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.4% rise. Euro zone industrial production is due next and a 0.4% drop is eyed.

GBP

There were no major reports out of the UK economy last Friday and none are due today, leaving traders to price in their expectations for this week’s top-tier releases. These include the CPI, jobs data, and retail sales readings that might influence BOE policy bias. Apart from that, market sentiment could also determine how pound pairs might behave.

CHF

The franc was able to take advantage of some risk-off flows but it looks like traders are still wary of SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so risk sentiment might still be the main driver of franc price action.

JPY

The yen raked in more gains on Friday but gave up some ground on profit-taking at the end of the week. Earlier today, Japan printed a stronger 1.0% GDP growth compared to the earlier 0.3% expansion. The price index was down 0.4%, half of the earlier 0.8% slide. Market sentiment could also push yen pairs around, based on headlines regarding North Korea.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to make a bit of a rebound before the week came to a close as traders booked profits to avoid weekend risk. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a 2.0% increase in headline retail sales for Q2 and a 2.1% gain in core retail sales. Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales data are lined up next but risk appetite might still be the bigger drivers of comdoll movement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way