Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar was unstoppable in its recent rallies, as it edged lower to the pound and the euro yesterday. There have been no major reports out of the US economy but the increased speculations of a Fed rate hike in June have been supporting the dollar so far. For today, the US retail sales figures are up for release and these might confirm whether or not the strong hiring gains have translated to a pickup in spending. Headline retail sales could show a 0.3% gain while core retail sales might print a 0.6% increase.

EUR

The euro’s bloodbath carried on in recent trading sessions, despite the lack of any catalysts from the euro zone. It seems that doubts on the Greek debt plan and the impact of the ECB’s ongoing quantitative easing program are weighing heavily on the shared currency these days. There are still no reports lined up from the euro zone today, indicating that the ongoing trends could continue.

GBP

The pound broke below a key support level against the dollar, as the pair is now trading below the 1.5000 major psychological level. UK manufacturing production was weaker than expected, as it indicated a 0.5% decline versus the projected 0.2% uptick. This suggests that the downturn in inflation is starting to take its toll on the economy, whether or not BOE Governor Carney admits it. UK trade balance is up for release today.

CHF

The franc continued its slide to most of its counterparts, although the drop seems to be subdued now that USDCHF is approaching levels prior to the SNB decision to scrap the franc peg. Profit-taking might take place soon and drag other franc pairs lower in the meantime. There are no events scheduled from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen was still able to take advantage of the run in risk aversion so far, although it was slightly weaker to the US dollar. Earlier today, data from Japan came in weaker than expected, as the BSI manufacturing index dropped from 8.1 to 2.4 instead of the projected 5.7 reading. There are no other reports lined up from Japan for the rest of the week, indicating that risk sentiment might push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi regained ground after the RBNZ rate statement turned out more upbeat than expected. The central bank refrained from cutting rates and even sounded optimistic with its growth forecasts, citing that a period of stability might be maintained for the next two years. In Australia, the employment change figure came in line with expectations of a 15.6K gain for February but the previous reading was downgraded to show a sharper decline in hiring. Nonetheless, the jobless rate improved from 6.4% to 6.3% but this was mostly due to a drop in labor force participation.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar gave back some of its recent wins when the retail sales report came in weaker than expected. Headline consumer spending slumped 0.6% in February while core retail sales showed a 0.1% decline instead of the projected 0.8% gain. Cold weather conditions weighed on spending for the past month, as it had for the previous couple of months also. For today, PPI data and consumer sentiment figures are up for release and these might be leading indicators for inflation and spending. Strong data could allow the dollar to recover for the rest of the week while weak figures could spur more losses.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness in yesterday’s trading but was still weaker compared to most of its major counterparts. There have been no major reports released from the euro zone yesterday and none are due today, indicating that current trends might still carry on.

GBP

The pound suffered more losses to its forex rivals in yesterday’s sessions even though the UK printed a better than expected trade balance. The deficit narrowed from 9.9 billion GBP to 8.4 billion GBP, indicating an improvement in trade activity. However, this wasn’t enough to lend support to the British currency, as traders seem to be doubting the BOE’s upbeat stance and focusing more on the weak data recently.

CHF

The franc regained a bit of ground to the dollar, mostly due to the weakness in US retail sales. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, indicating that the franc could act as a counter currency or take its cue from euro zone data or risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen continued to advance as risk aversion stayed in the financial markets. Japanese consumer confidence showed a slightly stronger than expected reading, which led to a bit more support for the yen. Revised industrial production data is up for release today and strong readings could continue to boost the Japanese currency.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in better shape yesterday, as the Aussie was supported by jobs data which came in line with expectations. Canadian jobs data is up for release today and a 3.5K decline in hiring is eyed, which might be enough to keep the Loonie’s gains in check. The jobless rate is slated to climb from 6.6% to 6.7% but a better than expected result could still support the Canadian currency.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar was a big winner last week, as risk aversion and the prospect of a Fed rate hike pushed the currency higher. This week, pricing in of expectations ahead of the FOMC statement and the actual reaction to the event might drive dollar pairs. For today, medium-tier reports like the Empire State manufacturing index and the industrial production data are up for release and might have a minimal impact on dollar movements.

EUR

The euro continued to weaken against its forex counterparts at the end of last week as the ECB’s ongoing QE program and the region’s weak fundamentals dragged the shared currency lower. There are no top-tier reports due from the euro zone today although ECB Governor Draghi’s speech might have an impact on euro movements.

GBP

The pound was also in a weak spot last Friday, as UK construction output marked a worse than expected 2.6% decline instead of the projected 1.4% increase. Only the UK CB leading index is up for release today and it might not be enough to keep the British currency supported even with a stronger than expected reading.

CHF

The franc consolidated just above parity to the dollar, as traders booked profits off key resistance levels. Swiss PPI and retail sales data are up for release, with producer prices set to show a 0.4% uptick and retail sales to mark a 2.6% annualized increase. Stronger than expected data might lend more support for the franc while weak figures could allow the declines to resume.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion and advanced to most of its forex counterparts while consolidating to the dollar. Japan’s industrial production reading was downgraded from 4.0% to 3.7% in January, indicating a weaker gain than initially estimated. There are no reports due from Japan today, leaving yen pairs sensitive to risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls resumed their slide last Friday, as risk aversion stayed in the markets throughout the week. Canada printed a smaller than expected 1K decline in hiring instead of the estimated 3.5K drop while the jobless rate climbed from 6.6% to 6.8%. Components of the report show that the losses were concentrated in the oil-related industries and cities. Canadian foreign securities purchases data is up for release today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent wins to its counterparts as traders started easing off their long positions ahead of the FOMC statement this week. Data from the US was weaker than expected, as the Empire State manufacturing index fell from 7.8 to 6.9 instead of improving to the estimated 8.1 figure. Industrial production showed a bleak 0.1% uptick instead of the projected 0.3% gain while capacity utilization was also worse than expected. US building permits and housing starts are lined up today and another set of weak figures could lead to more dollar losses.

EUR

The euro managed to recover against some of its rivals, despite the lack of top-tier data from the euro zone. ECB Governor Draghi once again emphasized the positive developments in the region during his latest testimony, allowing the shared currency a bit of relief. German ZEW economic sentiment data is due today and it might indicate a jump from 53.0 to 58.9, reflecting stronger optimism. Improvements are also expected for the region’s ZEW reading, which might keep the euro supported.

GBP

The pound bounced back in recent trading sessions, even though there were no major reports released from the UK. The CB leading index showed a 0.2% gain after staying flat in the previous month while the Rightmove HPI showed a 1.0% increase in prices. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc surprisingly managed to hold on to some of its gains against the dollar even with weak Swiss data. Producer prices tumbled by 1.4%, worse than the previous 0.6% decline and in contrast to the projected 0.4% uptick. Retail sales marked a 0.3% annualized decline versus the estimated 2.6% increase while the previous figure was downgraded. No reports are lined up from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen consolidated to its counterparts as traders awaited today’s BOJ rate statement. Calls for further easing have been growing, as the Japanese economy has churned out weak inflation and spending data in the past months. However, an upbeat assessment and outlook for the Japanese economy from BOJ policymakers might still be seen, resulting to a rally for the yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as the Kiwi managed to recover while the Aussie and Loonie gave up further ground. Earlier today, the RBA released the minutes of its latest policy meeting, reminding traders that they are open to further rate cuts if needed. Canadian manufacturing sales data is due today and New Zealand will have another dairy auction, with a potential decline in dairy prices expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar continued to consolidate against most of its counterparts while weakening against some, as the FOMC statement is drawing near. Data from the US economy has been mixed, with building permits coming in slightly better than expected at 1.09M versus the 1.07M estimate and housing starts falling short at 0.90M. The Fed is widely expected to drop the “can be patient” phrase in discussing policy normalization, which could mean that they are looking to hike rates possibly in June. If they retain this phrase, market participants could doubt that tightening is bound to take place soon and lead to a selloff for the dollar.

EUR

The euro recovered to most of its forex rivals, as data from the euro zone came in mixed. The German ZEW index ticked up from 53.0 to 54.8, short of the estimate at 58.9. Meanwhile, the region’s ZEW index came in stronger than expected at 62.4, up from the previous 52.7reading. Euro zone final core CPI was upgraded from 0.6% to 0.7% as well. There are no major reports lined up from the region today.

GBP

The pound resumed its drop to its counterparts, even though there were no major reports released from the UK. It appears that traders are starting to doubt that the BOE could stay optimistic, given the recent downturn in data. The minutes of the latest policy meeting are up for release today, along with the UK jobs report. These could provide better clues on what the BOE’s monetary plans might be and determine where the pound could be headed.

CHF

The franc continued to consolidate to the dollar and lost ground to the euro, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. Only the Swiss ZEW economic expectations report is due today and any improvements from the previous -73.0 figure might keep the franc afloat.

JPY

The yen managed to hold on to its recent gains and go for more, as the BOJ refrained from adding stimulus. BOJ Governor Kuroda admitted that price levels could fall further but that this wouldn’t prevent Japan from achieving its 2% inflation target in a couple of years. He added that wage hike talks are ongoing and that this might boost spending and inflation later on.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls chalked up a bit more weakness in recent trading, as the RBA minutes revealed that another rate hike was almost implemented. The New Zealand dairy auction showed an 8.8% fall in prices, due partly to the contamination threat on Fonterra recently. Canadian wholesale sales and US oil inventories data could influence Loonie price action later today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar gave up a lot of ground as most market participants weren’t too convinced that the Fed is ready to hike in June. Although the FOMC removed the “can be patient” phrase in discussing policy normalization, they also downgraded growth and inflation forecasts. This led market watchers to delay their rate hike forecasts from June to September. US initial jobless claims and Philly Fed index are up for release today but this might provide little direction for the dollar while traders continue to make sense of the latest FOMC announcement.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness and rallied in yesterday’s US session, even though there were no actual catalysts from the euro zone. There are still no major reports lined up from the region today, as the shared currency could take its cue from risk sentiment.

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot during the London trading session when the UK jobs release simply came in line with expectations while the jobless rate didn’t budge from 5.7%. The BOE minutes seemed less hawkish than usual, as policymakers still voted unanimously to keep monetary policy unchanged. There are no reports lined up from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc could be in for more volatility than usual, as the SNB statement is scheduled today. The Swiss currency managed to rally against the dollar in recent trading but might be forced to give back its gains if the statement sounds dovish. No actual easing or intervention measures are expected though, as the franc has depreciated back to the levels before the SNB removed the currency peg.

JPY

The yen advanced to the dollar but gave up ground to some of its counterparts in recent trading. There have been no reports released from Japan, leaving the yen to react to other market catalysts and to risk sentiment. There are still no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls rallied on the news that the Fed might not hike rates in June just yet, as this shored up risk appetite. Canadian wholesale sales was worse than expected with a 3.1% decline but the Loonie still managed to advance. Earlier today, New Zealand reported an 0.8% GDP figure for Q4 2014 as expected. There are no reports lined up from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar made a bit of a recovery to most of its forex counterparts in recent trading, as traders realized that the Fed is still the only central bank moving closer to hiking interest rates. Price action was no longer as volatile in the latest trading sessions, as post-FOMC speculations have faded. Data released from the US economy came in weaker than expected though, as the Philly Fed manufacturing index fell from 5.2 to 5.0 instead of improving to the estimated 7.2 reading while the CB leading index showed a smaller than expected 0.2% gain.

EUR

The euro resumed its drop to the yen and the dollar in recent trading as risk aversion settled in the financial markets. There have been no major reports released from the region then and none are due today, indicating that risk sentiment might continue to drive euro pairs around, with a bias to the downside due to the ongoing ECB QE program.

GBP

The pound was back in its weak spot in yesterday’s trading sessions, even though there were no major reports out of the UK. As it turns out, traders are also becoming concerned about the impact of the pound’s gains on inflation in the UK, as the BOE indicated in their latest meeting minutes. Only the public sector net borrowing report is lined up from the UK today and it might not have such a huge impact on pound price action.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it advanced to the euro and the pound but gave up ground to the US dollar. There were no surprises from the SNB interest rate statement, as the central bank kept rates unchanged and didn’t jawbone the franc. For today, there are also no major reports lined up from Switzerland and the franc might continue to be driven by market sentiment.

JPY

The yen strengthened against its forex peers, except for the US dollar. Risk aversion has supported the Japanese currency recently and it also helps that the BOJ indicated that they’re no longer interested in further easing, thanks to the ongoing wage hike talks. BOJ minutes are up for release today and this should shed more light on what the BOJ has in mind.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls weakened to the yen and dollar but made strong advances to the pound and euro. There have been no reports released from the comdoll economies yesterday while today has Canada’s retail sales and CPI data on tap. Core CPI could see a 0.7% uptick while headline CPI might be in for a 0.6% gain. Core retail sales could show a 0.4% slide while headline retail sales could see a 0.7% drop. Weaker than expected data might drive the Loonie lower against its counterparts.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar was unable to shake off the downbeat vibes brought forth by the cautious FOMC statement, forcing the currency to end lower against most of its forexcounteparts for the week. There have been no major reports released from the US economy on Friday but a couple of Fed officials gave testimonies. According to FOMC member Lockhart, interest rates might increase by September, a later schedule compared to initial market estimates of a June rate hike. For today, FOMC member Fischer is set to give a speech and possibly give his forecasts for policy changes.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to some of its recent gains to the dollar but was still in a very weak spot to its other forex rivals. Medium-tier data from the euro zone was mixed, as the German PPI missed forecasts but the euro zone current account balance printed better than expected results. Euro zone consumer confidence and a speech by ECB Governor Draghi are lined up today, with upbeat results likely to support the shared currency.

GBP

The pound was able to bounce back to the dollar but was still sold off against its other forex counterparts. Public sector net borrowing data in the UK was stronger than expected, which means that the country’s finances are faring better. For today, CBI industrial order expectations data is due and a drop from 10 to 9 is eyed.

CHF

The franc continued to advance to the dollar on Friday even though there were no reports released from Switzerland. The tone of the latest SNB statement indicated that the central bank isn’t likely to intervene or adjust monetary policy for a while. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The Japanese yen advanced to the dollar but gave up ground to its other forex rivals on Friday, although the minutes of the BOJ meeting didn’t contain much surprises. As usual, policymakers indicated confidence in the economy and its progress in moving towards economic goals. There are no reports lined up from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struck up a strong recovery on Friday, even though the Canadian economy printed bleak retail sales figures. Headline consumer spending fell by 1.7% while core retail sales saw a 1.8% decline. The CPI readings were much better though, as the headline figure showed a stronger than expected 0.9% gain while the core figure came in line with expectations of a 0.6% uptick. There are no reports due from these economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar continued to lose ground against its forex counterparts, as risk appetite extended its stay in the financial markets. Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, with existing home sales falling short of the estimated 4.91M reading and coming in at 4.88M. Not even FOMC member Fischer’s remarks on potential tightening this year was able to lift the US dollar, as traders are still disappointed that this might take longer than initially expected. For today, US CPI readings are up for release and positive readings are expected for both the headline and core figures.

EUR

The euro continued to advance against the US dollar while sliding against most of its forex counterparts, as ECB Governor Draghi’s speech failed to push the shared currency in a clearer direction. German and French PMI readings from the manufacturing and services sector are lined up for today and small improvements are eyed. If the actual figures come in stronger than expected, the euro might be able to hold on to its recent gains and go for more.

GBP

The pound also regained ground to the dollar but was still in a weak spot against most of its counterparts when data from the UK came in weaker than expected. CBI industrial order expectations showed a drop from 10 to 0 instead of landing at the estimated 9 reading. UK CPI figures are up for release today, with the headline figure likely to show a 0.1% uptick and the core figure expected to print a 1.3% increase. Stronger than expected data could allow the pound to recover while weak readings could lead to another selloff.

CHF

The franc continued to advance against most of its major forex counterparts, despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today, as the franc might take its cue from euro zone reports and general market sentiment.

JPY

The yen weakened on risk appetite but managed to hold on to its recent gains to the US dollar. There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, indicating that sentiment continues to drive yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of the run in risk appetite at the start of the week, as these higher-yielding currencies advanced to the yen and the dollar. Australia’s CB leading index marked a 0.4% uptick earlier today, stronger than the previous 0.3% gain. However, the Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected and landed back in the contraction zone, which could force the Aussie to return its wins. No other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar continued to weaken against most of its major counterparts, despite stronger than expected data from the US economy. Core CPI came in stronger than expected with a 0.2% gain versus the estimated 0.1% uptick while the headline CPI was in line with expectations of a 0.2% rebound. The flash manufacturing PMI also beat the consensus, as it climbed from an upgraded 55.1 reading to 55.3. New home sales jumped from 500K to 539K, surpassing estimates at 466K. For today, durable goods orders data is due, with the headline and figures likely to post 0.3% gains.

EUR

The euro continued its steady rise to the dollar while giving up ground to its other forex counterparts, even though PMI readings from France and Germany weren’t all bad. In fact, the German flash manufacturing PMI and the euro zone flash services PMI beat expectations while the German and French services PMI came in as expected. German Ifo business climate data is up for release today and the index is expected to climb from 106.8 to 107.4.

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot in recent trading, thanks to weaker than expected UK CPI readings. As the BOE predicted, both headline and core inflation continued to tumble, with the former posting a flat reading and the latter showing a drop from 1.4% to 1.2%. Underlying inflation readings such as the PPI and HPI also hinted at weaker price pressures down the line. Only the BBA mortgage approvals report is up for release today and it might climb from 39.4K to 39.6K.

CHF

The franc edged higher to most of its major counterparts, as the lack of data from Switzerland kept its currency as a viable safe-haven alternative. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator is up for release today and an improvement from the previous 1.24 reading could mean more gains for the franc.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance, as it advanced to the dollar and pound but gave up ground to its other rivals. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.6 to 50.4, reflecting a slowdown in industry expansion for March. No major reports are due from Japan today, indicating that the yen could act as a counter currency and be sensitive to risk sentiment.

[b]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

[/b]The comdolls were still on the risk appetite train in recent trading as they advanced against most of their counterparts, despite weaker than expected HSBC flash manufacturing PMI from China. New Zealand printed a weaker than expected trade surplus of 50 million NZD versus the estimated 375 million NZD figure. No major reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar continued to edge lower to most of its major counterparts as more and more traders have been booking profits off their long positions at the end of the month and quarter. Data from the US has been weaker than expected, with both the headline and core durable goods orders figures falling short of expectations. Headline durable goods orders slipped by 1.4% while core durable goods orders fell by 0.4%. Initial jobless claims and the flash services PMI is up for release today and another round of weak figures might lead to more dollar selling.

EUR

The euro advanced to most of its currency counterparts after Germany printed better than expected economic data. The Ifo business climate reading improved from 106.8 to 107.9, outpacing the consensus at 107.4 and reflecting a strong pickup in optimism. For today, the GfK consumer climate report is due and it might show a rise from 9.7 to 9.8, with another stronger than expected reading likely to spur more gains for the euro.

GBP

The pound was still in a weak spot against most of its counterparts, even though there were no major reports released from the UK yesterday. Today has the retail sales report on tap and this should show whether the downturn in price levels has translated to better spending. Headline retail sales could post a 0.4% rebound from the previous 0.3% decline while CBI realized sales could improve from 1 to 16.

CHF

The franc continued to rally against the dollar and its other peers, as the Swiss UBS consumption indicator improved from 1.11 to 1.19. No reports are lined up from Switzerland today, suggesting that the franc could take its cue from euro movements or risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen advanced to the dollar and its other counterparts as risk appetite seemed to weaken in recent trading. There have been no reports released from Japan then and none are due today, leaving traders to sit on their hands ahead of Friday’s data dump from the country.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls advanced to the dollar and most of its major rivals, despite the slight downturn in risk appetite recently. There are no major reports due from the comdolls today, although BOC Governor Poloz is scheduled to give a speech during the New York trading session and possibly drive Loonie price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar made a bit of a recovery to its forex counterparts in recent trading, as data from the US economy came in stronger than expected again. Initial jobless claims came in at 282K versus the estimated 291K figure and the previous 291K increase. The flash manufacturing PMI improved from 57.1 to 58.6, outpacing the consensus at 57.2. For today, the final GDP reading for Q1 is up for release and an upgrade from 2.2% to 2.4% is expected. Yellen is also set to give a speech today and probably make an impact on dollar movements.

EUR

The euro gave back some of its recent wins when the region posted a couple of weaker than expected economic readings. M3 money supply came in below expectations while euro zone private loans showed a 0.1% decline instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick. However, the German GfK consumer climate report showed a better than expected reading of 10, up from the previous 9.7 report and higher than the projected 9.8 figure. There are no major reports due from the region today.

GBP

The pound failed to rally after the UK printed a couple of stronger than expected spending reports, as trader are starting to doubt the optimism of the BOE when it comes to spending. Retail sales marked a 0.7% gain versus the projected 0.4% increase and the previous 0.1% uptick. The CBI realized sales index jumped from 1 to 18, outpacing the estimate of 16. For today, a few BOE officials are set to give speeches and possibly spur pound volatility.

CHF

The franc returned some of its recent wins even though there were no reports released from Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today, which suggests that the currency could take its cue from risk sentiment or euro direction.

JPY

The Japanese yen is edging lower to its counterparts in today’s Asian session, as data from the economy came in mixed. Retail sales was weaker than expected with a 1.8% annualized decline versus the projected 1.4% drop while household spending marked a 2.9% year-over-year decrease. National core inflation chalked up its seventh consecutive monthly decline, after falling from 2.2% to 2.0% in February. The good news is that unemployment improved from 3.6% to 3.5%. No other reports are lined up from Japan.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to edge lower in recent trading as geopolitical risk weighed on sentiment. The Loonie, however, was able to benefit from the pickup in oil prices due to speculations of a downturn in production with the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its forex counterparts, thanks to risk aversion extending its stay in the financial markets. There have been no major reports out of the US last Friday and none are lined up today, indicating that sentiment might continue to keep the safe-haven US currency supported.

EUR

The euro shed more gains on Friday but was off to a strong start this week. There have been no major reports released from the region last Friday while today has the Italian industrial production report due. Other than that, the euro might carry on with its previous trends after a bit of profit-taking.

GBP

Weaker than expected data from the UK pushed the pound lower at the start of the week, as construction output and industrial production fell short of forecasts last Friday. Manufacturing production was in line with expectations of a 0.4% uptick but the previous month’s reading was downgraded to show a sharper decline. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc gapped lower to the dollar at the start of this trading week, despite the lack of data from Switzerland last week. For today, there are still no major reports lined up from the country, as sentiment might drive franc price action for the meantime.

JPY

Japan started the trading week by releasing a few top-tier reports such as its core machinery orders and PPI. The former showed a better than expected 0.4% decline versus the projected 2.6% tumble while the latter also printed a stronger than expected 0.7% increase.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a weak start after China printed a weaker than expected trade balance today. The reading narrowed from 60.6 billion USD to just 3.1 billion USD in March, reflecting weaker trade activity. This could keep risk sentiment weak for the rest of the day, which might force the comdolls to slide further. In the next Asian trading session, New Zealand will print its NZIER business confidence figure.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar continued to gain ground in the earlier trading sessions but gave up some of its wins during the New York hours. Data from the US has been weaker than expected, as the federal budget balance came short of consensus. US retail sales data are up for release today and analysts are expecting to see decent rebounds. The headline reading is slated to post a 1.1% gain while the core figure could show a 0.7% uptick. Stronger than expected data could renew demand for the US dollar while weak figures could lead to an extended selloff.

EUR

The euro was one of the weakest performing currencies in yesterday’s trading sessions, despite stronger than expected data from the region. Italy posted a 0.6% gain in industrial production, higher than the projected 0.5% uptick. It appears that Greek debt woes continue to weigh on the shared currency, which might be in for more losses since there are no major reports lined up from the region today.

GBP

The pound made a slight recovery in yesterday’s latter trading sessions even though there were no reports released from the UK then. Today has the CPI figures on tap, with more price declines expected. The headline reading is likely to stay flat but a negative figure might lead to more pound weakness. Meanwhile, the core figure is expected to stay unchanged at 1.2%. PPI input figures are also due and it could print a downturn in producer price levels.

CHF

The franc was able to bounce back in recent trading, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today, which suggests that market sentiment might drive franc movements.

JPY

The yen advanced to its currency counterparts when risk aversion extended its stay in the financial markets. Data from Japan has also been stronger than expected, with the core machinery orders and PPI beating expectations. There are no reports due from Japan today, leaving risk sentiment as the main driver of yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls recouped some of their losses in recent trading although weakness is still evident. In Australia, NAB business confidence improved from 0 to 3 while New Zealand reported a dip in NZIER business confidence from 24 to 23. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today as traders brace themselves for the Chinese data releases in the next Asian trading session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar suffered a sharp selloff in recent trading after the country’s retail sales figures came in short of expectations. Headline retail sales chalked up a 0.9% increase instead of the projected 1.1% gain while core retail sales saw only a 0.4% uptick versus the estimated 0.7% rise. PPI was also weaker than expected with only a 0.2% gain instead of the expected 0.3% increase while core PPI came in line with expectations of a 0.2% rise. US industrial production and capacity utilization numbers are up for release today, along with the Empire State manufacturing index.

EUR

The euro managed to recover against the dollar but was still in a weak spot compared to its other currency counterparts. Euro zone industrial production was stronger than expected at 1.1% versus the estimated 0.3% uptick, but it seems that traders are paring their bets ahead of today’s ECB rate statement. Governor Draghi might retain his upbeat tone and reiterate that green shoots are seen in the euro zone economy.

GBP

The pound had a volatile day, thanks to the inflation releases from the UK which mostly came in weaker than expected. Headline CPI held steady at a flat rate while core CPI tumbled from 1.2% to 1.0% in March. Other inflation indicators such as the PPI input, RPI, and HPI all came in weaker than expected, hinting at further downward pressure on consumer price levels. Only the CB leading index is lined up from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc took advantage of dollar weakness and advanced to most of its forex rivals, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. There are still no major reports due from the Swiss economy today but the franc might take its cue from euro movements, as any major announcements from the ECB might also affect the Swissy’s direction.

JPY

The yen was able to benefit from the onset of risk aversion after China printed weaker than expected economic data in today’s Asian trading session. There have been no reports out of Japan recently while today only has the revised industrial production figure on tap.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were badly hurt after China printed mostly weaker than expected data, particularly in retail sales and industrial production. The latter showed a mere 5.6% increase, far weaker compared to the estimated 6.9% gain, while the former showed a 10.2% rise versus projections of a 10.9% increase. The Chinese GDP came in line with expectations of a 7.0% expansion, its weakest pace of growth since 2009. In Australia, Westpac consumer sentiment showed a 3.2% decline, following the previous 1.2% drop. Later today, the BOC will make its policy statement while New Zealand will have its dairy auction.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar continued to give up more ground to its forex counterparts in recent trading as data from the economy still fell short of expectations. The Empire State manufacturing index fell into negative territory, with the reading tumbling from 6.9 to -1.2 instead of improving to the projected 7.2 figure. Industrial production was also weaker than expected with a 0.6% drop instead of the estimated 0.3% dip while capacity utilization fell short of consensus. Initial jobless claims and building permits data are up for release today and more disappointments could lead to further dollar weakness.

EUR

The euro enjoyed some volatility in yesterday’s London trading session, as the ECB press conference contained mixed signals from Draghi. While the central bank head noted that green shoots are seen in the euro zone economy lately, he also reiterated that they are unlikely to exit from their ongoing QE program anytime soon. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound had a mixed performance, as it advanced to the dollar and euro but gave up ground to the franc and Aussie. There have been no reports released from the UK then, explaining the lack of direction from the currency. For today, there are still no reports due, leaving traders to price in expectations for tomorrow’s jobs release.

CHF

The franc surged against most of its major counterparts, as market sentiment seemed to turn a corner. There have been no reports released from Switzerland then and none are due today, indicating that the franc could continue to take its cue from the risk environment.

JPY

The yen was able to outpace the dollar but wound up giving up some of its gains when risk sentiment improved. There have been no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are scheduled today, suggesting that the yen could still be driven by sentiment for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie got a strong boost from stronger than expected jobs data released in today’s Asian trading session, with the economy adding 37.7K jobs and bringing the jobless rate down to 6.1%. Components of the report actually showed improvements in full-time hiring and labor force participation, lowering the odds of an RBA rate cut in the coming months. In New Zealand, the dairy auction revealed another fall in milk prices while the BOC didn’t make any surprise announcements in their latest policy statement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar gave up more ground to its forex counterparts when data from the economy came in weaker than expected. Initial jobless claims came in at 294K, higher than the estimated 284K figure and the previous 282K reading. Building permits fell from 1.10M to 1.04M instead of landing at the estimated 1.08M reading while housing starts ticked up from 0.91M to 0.93M, short of the projected 1.05M figure. Preliminary US consumer sentiment data is up for release today and the reading might climb from 93.0 to 93.8.

EUR

The euro managed to advance against the dollar and yen but was still in a weak spot to the rest of its forex rivals. There have been no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has the current account balance and final CPI readings due. Stronger than expected data could reinforce Draghi’s view that a sustained recovery is taking hold, which could support the shared currency until the end of the week.

GBP

The pound sold off to most of its forex counterparts but was able to take advantage of dollar and yen weakness. Traders seem to be pricing in weaker than expected data for today’s upcoming jobs release, which could show a 29.1K decline in claimants. This would be a weaker reading compared to the previous 31K reduction. Still, the jobless rate is slated to improve from 5.7% to 5.6% for March.

CHF

The franc chalked up another winning day, as Swiss PPI came in stronger than expected. Producer prices chalked up a 0.2% gain, higher than the projected 0.1% uptick and better than the previous 1.4% decline. Swiss retail sales are up for release today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.7% rebound.

JPY

The yen gave up a lot of ground to most of its forex rivals in yesterday’s trading sessions but was able to hold on to its recent wins to the dollar. Japanese consumer confidence data is up for release today and a climb from 40.7 to 41.4 is expected, which might be enough for the yen to recover.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls carried on with their rallies in yesterday’s trading sessions, as risk appetite somewhat improved. Stronger than expected jobs data from Australia were mostly responsible for the gains, as the economy added 37.7K jobs in March and brought the jobless rate down to 6.1%. Canada could take center stage today with its retail sales and inflation figures, with stronger than expected figures likely to push the Loonie higher.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar suffered a continuous selloff last week as weak data from the economy weighed on rate hike prospects. There are no major reports lined up from the US this week, as traders could focus on market sentiment for direction. Last Friday, inflation figures came in line with expectations of 0.2% gains for the headline and core reading. Today, the US economic schedule is empty.

EUR

Greek debt troubles continued to weigh on the shared currency early in the week, as traders start to doubt that the country could secure its next set of funds and stay in the euro zone. As of the moment, government officials and creditors are refusing to give way, which opens up the odds of contagion in the euro region. German PPI and the Buba report are up for release today.

GBP

The pound managed to advance to the dollar but was still weaker compared to its other forex counterparts, as traders weren’t impressed by the latest jobs report. Hiring picked up by only 20.7K, lower than the estimated 29.1K increase, while the jobless rate improved to 5.6% as expected. Earlier today, the UK Rightmove HPI showed a 1.6% gain in house prices.

CHF

The franc continued to advance on Friday, albeit at a weaker pace. Swiss retail sales came in weaker than expected with a 2.7% slide instead of the estimated 0.7% uptick. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today, leaving the franc sensitive to euro region developments.

JPY

The yen advanced to the dollar but gave up ground to its higher-yielding counterparts when risk appetite seemed to improve. Data from Japan was stronger than expected, as the consumer confidence index climbed from 40.7 to 41.7, reflecting stronger optimism. Earlier today, the tertiary industry index also showed a stronger than expected reading of 0.3% versus the estimated 0.6% drop.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls made a good rally on Friday, especially after Canada showed stronger than expected retail sales and inflation reports. Core retail sales surged by 2.0% while headline retail sales increased by 1.7%. Headline inflation showed a 0.7% uptick while the core CPI showed a 0.6% gain. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a weaker than expected 0.3% decline in quarterly CPI versus estimates of a 0.2% dip. A speech by BOC Governor Poloz is scheduled today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar managed to recoup some of its recent losses as risk aversion extended its stay in the financial markets. There have been no reports from the US economy then, leaving traders to focus on other news updates that affect overall sentiment. Rumors that Greece might be forced to default if their government is unable to get approval for their revised set of economic reforms kept risk-taking in check, lending more support for the safe-haven dollar. There are still no major reports due from the US today.

EUR

The euro resumed its slide as Greek debt concerns continued to dominate the headlines. The deadline is looming for Greece’s government officials to gain approval for their revised set of economic reforms, and it seems that their creditors are refusing to budge from their stance and consider forgoing a part of Greece’s debt. German ZEW economic sentiment data is due today and the index could climb from 54.8 to 55.6, which might help support the shared currency for a bit.

GBP

The pound continued to slump against its counterparts, as more and more traders started to price in dovish expectations for the BOE minutes. There have been no major reports released from the UK so far this week, although previous reports have surprised to the downside.

CHF

The franc gave up some of its recent gains to the dollar but continued its advance to its other forex rivals, as the lack of data from Switzerland kept the Swissy moving as a counter currency. There are still no top-tier reports due from the Swiss economy today, leaving the franc sensitive to risk flows.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion in recent trading, as it advanced against its higher-yielding counterparts. Tertiary industry activity was stronger than expected in January with its 0.3% gain instead of the estimated 0.6% drop. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave back their recent wins when the risk-off environment took hold. In addition, RBA Governor Stevens’ remarks that further rate cuts are still possible weighed heavily on the Australian dollar. Later on, Canada is set to print its wholesale sales report and possibly show a 0.2% rebound. Stronger than expected data could keep the Loonie supported during the US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

[katetrades]

USD

The US dollar was unable to pick a clear direction in recent trading sessions, as the lack of data kept risk sentiment in play. Updates on the Greek debt talks and potential scenarios continued to keep traders on their toes, but today’s release of the US existing home sales and crude oil inventories report could pave the way for extended dollar moves.

EUR

The euro traded carefully against its forex counterparts, as traders are still awaiting the outcome of the Eurogroup meetings later this week. Greek government officials have been given until the end of the week to submit their latest set of revised economic reforms before securing the next set of bailout funds and avoiding a default. It appears that traders are hopeful that the creditors would relax some of the requirements or forgive a part of Greece’s debt in order to prevent a crisis. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as the German ZEW index slumped from 54.8 to 53.3 while the euro zone ZEW index improved from 62.4 to 64.8.

GBP

The pound was stuck in consolidation to most of its forex counterparts, with traders staying on their toes ahead of the release of the BOE minutes in today’s London trading session. A shift to a less hawkish bias is expected, as inflation and employment reports haven’t been impressive. However, if BOE Governor Carney retains his upbeat outlook, the pound might be able to resume its climb.

CHF

The franc struggled to regain ground in recent trading due to the lack of top-tier reports and relevant updates. Swiss ZEW economic expectations data are up for release today and the index is slated to improve from the previous -37.9 reading. If so, the franc might be able to regain ground.

JPY

The yen weakened to the dollar and most of its forex rivals when risk appetite picked up in recent trading. There have been no major reports released from Japan then while today’s trade balance showed a stronger than expected reading. No other reports are lined up from Japan, which means that risk sentiment could take over.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a strong start today, as Australia’s CPI readings came in line with expectations. Quarterly CPI held steady at 0.2% while the trimmed mean CPI showed a 0.6% reading as expected, dashing hopes of a rate cut in the next policy meeting. New Zealand visitor arrivals data is due in the next Asian trading session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way