USD
The US dollar was off to a strong start when risk appetite waned in the earlier trading sessions. However, the currency returned some of its wins when data from the economy missed expectations. The Empire State manufacturing index improved from -19.4 to -16.6, short of the consensus at -10.5. US PPI, building permits, and industrial production numbers are due today but traders are likely to hold out for the FOMC minutes, which might contain a few more downbeat remarks.
EUR
The euro advanced against most of its peers when data came in stronger than expected. The German ZEW index fell from 10.2 to 1.0, higher than the projected 0.1 reading, while the euro zone ZEW index slid from 22.7 to 13.6 instead of dropping all the way down to 10.3. There are no major reports due from the region today.
GBP
The pound suffered a sharp drop when UK CPI readings came in mixed. While the headline figure improved from 0.2% to 0.3% as expected, the core CPI fell from 1.4% to 1.2%, worse than the projected fall to 1.3%. UK jobs data is due today and a 2.9K increase in claimants is eyed, enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.1% to 5.0%. However, traders are likely to pay closer attention to the projected fall in the average earnings index from 2.0% to 1.9%.
CHF
The franc was mostly stuck in consolidation since there were no major reports due from the Swiss economy. Today has the ZEW economic expectations index on tap and an improvement from the previous -3.0 reading could mean gains for the franc.
JPY
The yen was able to score huge wins against its rivals but ended up giving back some when risk sentiment improved. Data from Japan came in weaker than expected again, with core machinery orders rising 4.2% y/y instead of the estimated 4.6% growth.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls lost ground when Russia and OPEC failed to secure a solid agreement to freeze production, as Saudi Arabia agreed to participate only if other oil-producing nations agree to do so. New Zealand reported another fall in dairy prices of 2.8%, marking its fourth consecutive decline. Quarterly PPI numbers are due from New Zealand next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a volatile run during the release of the FOMC minutes but was mostly unchanged against its counterparts, except for the commodity currencies. Fed officials highlighted the increased downside risks to growth and inflation but data released earlier in the day printed strong results, particularly for the PPI and industrial production figures. The Philly Fed index and initial jobless claims data are up for release today.
EUR
The euro gave up some ground in recent trading sessions as there were no major reports to keep it supported. Only the euro zone current account balance and ECB meeting minutes are up for release today, with dovish remarks from policymakers likely to weigh on the shared currency.
GBP
The pound suffered a sharp selloff against its currency rivals even though the claimant count change came in better than expected. Joblessness fell by 14.8K versus the projected 2.9K decline while the previous reading enjoyed a positive revision. However, the jobless rate held steady at 5.1% while the average earnings index fell from 2.0% to 1.9% as expected.
CHF
The franc gave up more ground against its peers, as the Swiss ZEW economic expectations index slid from -3.0 to -5.9. The Swiss trade balance is due today and a wider surplus of 2.67 billion CHF compared to the earlier 2.54 billion CHF is expected. Also lined up are the Q3 and Q4 employment level data.
JPY
The Japanese yen lost ground to the commodity currencies when risk appetite improved. There were no reports out of Japan then but speculations of additional easing in their next policy statement continued to weigh on the Japanese currency.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Canadian dollar continued to rally in hopes that a deal will be reached among oil producers soon. Iran has expressed support for the proposal to cap production but hasn’t committed to participating. Earlier today, New Zealand printed a 1.2% decline in PPI input prices and a 0.8% drop in PPI output prices. Australia reported a 7.9K drop in hiring and an increase in the jobless rate from 5.8% to 6.0%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar drew some support from upbeat CPI readings but was hardly able to recover against the comdolls. The headline CPI showed a flat reading instead of falling by the projected 0.1% figure while core CPI rose 0.3% versus the projected 0.2% uptick. US flash manufacturing PMI is due today and a dip from 52.4 to 52.3 is eyed.
EUR
The euro gave up ground to most of its forex counterparts as data from the region came in weak. The German PPI revealed a 0.7% drop in producer prices while the region’s consumer confidence index slipped from -6 to -9, worse than the projected fall to -7. Flash PMI readings from Germany and France are due today and signs of improvement could still keep the shared currency on its feet.
GBP
The pound staged a strong rally towards the end of the week when UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced that they drafted a deal with the EU. However, this is still up for referendum by June so the pound gapped lower against its counterparts on the increased uncertainty. UK retail sales beat expectations with a 2.3% gain but the previous reading suffered a sharp downgrade. Only the CBI industrial orders expectations data is due today.
CHF
The franc regained a bit of ground on Friday despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. Today has the PPI report due and a 0.2% drop in producer price levels is eyed.
JPY
The yen regained ground on Friday as traders booked profits off the previous risk rallies. Earlier today, Japan printed a weaker than expected manufacturing PMI of 50.2, worse than the projected fall from 52.3 to 52.0. Risk flows and speculations of additional BOJ easing could continue to push yen pairs around today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls managed to hold their ground in recent sessions since there were no weak reports to weigh them down. Canada’s readings came in mixed, with CPI figures printing stronger than expected results and retail sales missing expectations. New Zealand credit card spending rose 8.9%, following the previous 7.4% rise.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up ground against the commodity currencies and the yen but advanced to the euro and pound. The US flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, falling from 52.4 to 51.0, worse than the projected dip to 52.3. US existing home sales and CB consumer confidence data are up for release today and another round of downbeat data could spur more dollar weakness.
EUR
The euro was also in a weak spot as Brexit fears influenced demand for the shared currency. PMI readings from the euro zone also came in mostly weaker than expected, with only the French flash manufacturing PMI beating the consensus. The German Ifo business climate index is up for release today and a drop from 107.3 to 107.0 is eyed.
GBP
The pound was the weakest currency of the bunch as Brexit concerns brought more uncertainty. As it turns out, Cameron’s EU deal failed to draw support from his business advisory group and even the mayor of London himself. For today, the Inflation Report hearings are scheduled, although Brexit headlines might continue to influence pound price action.
CHF
The franc advanced to the euro but gave up ground to the dollar when Swiss data disappointed. The PPI showed a 0.4% fall in producer prices, worse than the projected 0.2% decline. SNB head Thomas Jordan is set to give a testimony today and jawboning might drive the franc lower.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the selloff among European currencies, as talks of an RRR cut in China also supported demand for the safe-haven Asian currency. Data was actually weaker than expected, as the flash manufacturing PMI slid from 52.3 to 50.2 versus the projected 52.0 figure.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls carried on with their strong rebound, particularly against European currencies. Data has been mixed, with New Zealand reporting an 8.9% jump in credit card spending and Australia showing a 0.2% drop in its CB leading index. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was able to recover against the higher-yielding currencies yesterday as risk-off flows were seen. Data from the US economy came in mixed, with the CB consumer confidence index falling from 97.8 to 92.2 versus the projected 97.4 figure and existing home sales rising to 5.47M, outpacing the consensus at 5.37M. US new home sales and crude oil inventories are up for release today.
EUR
The euro recovered against the comdolls but was still in a generally weak spot since data from the region missed expectations. Germany reported a drop in its Ifo business climate from 107.3 to 105.7, worse than the estimated fall to 107.0. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound was still weighed down by Brexit fears but managed to pop slightly higher against commodity currencies. The BOE Inflation Report hearings simply reiterated what had already been said in the BOE statement and MPC minutes, although Carney clarified that they aren’t likely to lower rates below zero. Only the CBI realized sales index is due today.
CHF
The franc staged a strong rally after SNB head Thomas Jordan mentioned that it would be difficult for them to employ unconventional policy tools endlessly. Market watchers took this as a sign that the SNB isn’t likely to lower rates much deeper into negative territory even though the ECB is mulling further easing. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator is due today.
JPY
The yen carried on with its climb, albeit at a slower pace than usual, as risk aversion weighed on the comdolls. There have been no major reports out of Japan, although the Brexit and crude oil concerns are working in the yen’s favor.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls weakened across the board when Iran’s oil minister pointed out that it would be unreasonable to expect them to cap production. Saudi’s oil minister also mentioned that they have no plans of cutting output while the API report indicated a buildup of 7.1 million barrels. The US crude oil inventories report is due today and an increase of 2.1 million barrels is eyed. Earlier today, Australia’s construction work done and wage price index both missed expectations.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was in a weak spot due to a pickup in risk appetite and weaker than expected US data. The flash services PMI fell from 53.2 to 49.8, its lowest reading in 28 months, versus the projected rise to 53.4. New home sales sank from 544K to 494K, worse than the estimated drop to 522K. Durable goods orders data and initial jobless claims are due today. Headline durable goods orders might show a 3.0% rebound while core durable goods orders could print a 0.2% uptick.
EUR
The euro struggled to regain ground, although it did manage to post some gains against its counterparts. There were no major reports out of the euro zone but Brexit fears in the region are weighing on the shared currency. Final CPI readings are due today and no revisions are expected.
GBP
The pound was still a big loser despite the risk rallies, as money flowed out of the UK on Brexit concerns. Data from the UK was also weaker than expected, with the CBI realized sales index falling from 16 to 10. The UK second GDP estimate is due today and no changes are expected from the 0.5% estimate.
CHF
The franc carried on with its climb as the preferred safe-haven in the European region, especially with EUR and GBP weakening. Also, the increase in the Swiss UBS consumption indicator from 1.61 to 1.66 spurred demand for the franc. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
JPY
The yen returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite returned to the markets. There were no reports out of Japan then and traders might also be booking profits ahead of the CPI releases on Friday.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was a big beneficiary of the rebound in risk-taking spurred by crude oil rallies. The US oil inventories report showed a larger buildup of 3.1 million barrels versus the projected 2 million increase but this was still lower compared to the API figure of 7.1 million barrels. In New Zealand, visitor arrivals rebounded by 2.9%. Australia’s private capital expenditure data is due next and a 3.1% decline is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some ground to its higher-yielding peers as risk appetite improved yesterday. Data from the US came in mostly stronger than expected, with the headline durable goods orders showing a 4.9% rebound from the previous 3.0% decline and the core durable goods orders figure showing a 1.8% increase versus the estimated 0.2% uptick. Initial jobless claims landed at 272K as expected. US preliminary GDP is due today and a downgrade from 0.7% to 0.4% is eyed. Personal income and spending, along with the core PCE price index, are also lined up.
EUR
The euro tried to hold steady against the dollar and managed to advance against the yen while losing ground to commodity currencies. The final headline CPI for the euro zone was downgraded from 0.4% to 0.3% while the core CPI was unchanged at 1.0%. Preliminary CPI readings from France and Germany are due today, along with French consumer spending data.
GBP
The pound was still the biggest loser of the pack, as downbeat UK business investment data weighed on the currency. Even though the GDP reading was unchanged at 0.5%, the preliminary business investment report showed a 2.1% slide versus the projected 0.6% gain. There are no reports due from the UK today but BOE Governor Carney has a testimony scheduled.
CHF
The franc managed to hold on to its gains, thanks to European traders seeking other safe-haven alternatives in the region. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy and SNB head Jordan’s recent remarks suggesting a lower likelihood of more negative deposit rates is keeping the currency supported.
JPY
The yen returned some of its latest wins when risk sentiment improved and Japanese CPI readings were released. Tokyo showed a 0.1% drop in core price levels while the national level printed a flat reading. No other reports are due from Japan today, which suggests that sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls ignored the slump in Chinese equities in the earlier part of the day, focusing on the rebound in oil later on. Reports that OPEC and non-OPEC nations have another meeting in March kept hopes up that a deal to cap production will be made. New Zealand’s trade balance showed a surplus of 8 million NZD versus expectations of a 250 million NZD deficit.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a strong run on Friday, thanks to an upbeat GDP release. The preliminary reading showed an upward revision from 0.7% to 1.0% instead of being downgraded to 0.4% as expected. Personal spending and income both ticked up by 0.5%. For today, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales reports are due.
EUR
The euro broke lower to the dollar but managed to advance against most of its comdoll peers when risk aversion stayed in play. Data from the euro zone was mostly weaker than expected, with German preliminary CPI missing expectations of a 0.6% gain and coming in at 0.4%. Both the French and Spanish preliminary CPI readings also fell short while the French consumer spending report came in line with estimates of a 0.6% increase. German retail sales and euro zone CPI estimates are due today.
GBP
The pound resumed its slide as IMF head Lagarde warned of the repercussions of a Brexit. There were no major reports out of the UK on Friday, leaving investors to price in potential financial and economic uncertainty. UK net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data are due next.
CHF
The franc managed to advance against the euro but lost ground to the dollar on Friday. There were no major reports out of Switzerland then while today has the KOF economic barometer on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a dip from 100.3 to 99.1, which might spur franc weakness.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the risk-off flows last Friday, although its gains were still limited. Data from Japan came in mixed, with the Tokyo core CPI and BOJ core CPI missing expectations and the national core CPI coming in slightly stronger than expected. Earlier today, Japan printed a 0.1% drop in retail sales and a 3.7% jump in preliminary industrial production.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi and Aussie slumped against their peers when risk aversion kicked in but the Loonie managed to hold on to its wins in anticipation of a deal to cap oil production. New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence index dropped from 23.0 to 7.1 while building consents fell 8.9%. In Australia, company operating profits fell 2.8% versus the projected 1.7% drop. The Canadian current account balance is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar wasn’t able to establish a clear direction in recent sessions, as it simply reacted to other currencies’ price action. Data from the US economy came in mostly weaker than expected, as the Chicago PMI fell from 55.6 to 47.6 while the pending home sales report printed a sharp 2.5% drop. For today, the US ISM manufacturing PMI is due and a rise from 48.2 to 48.5 is eyed.
EUR
The euro suffered a sharp tumble in recent sessions when the euro zone flash CPI readings missed expectations. The headline figure showed a 0.2% drop instead of the estimated flat reading while the core figure fell from 1.0% to 0.7%. Final PMI readings from the top economies are due today, along with the German unemployment change and euro zone unemployment rate.
GBP
The pound managed a quick bounce in recent trading, as traders likely booked profits off their previous short positions when UK medium-tier reports came in line with expectations. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 52.9 to 52.3 is eyed.
CHF
The franc advanced against its forex counterparts when the Swiss KOF economic barometer beat expectations. The reading rose from an upgraded 100.4 figure to 102.4 instead of dipping to the projected 99.1 reading. Swiss retail sales data is due today and a 1.2% decline is eyed, a slight improvement from the previous 1.6% drop.
JPY
The yen continued to gain ground against its forex rivals as risk aversion was in play during the Asian session. Data from Japan was mixed, with retail sales down 0.1% and preliminary industrial production up by 3.7%. Household spending slumped 3.1% while the unemployment rate dipped from 3.3% to 3.2%.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly stuck in consolidation ahead of this week’s top-tier data. Reports from China fell short, as the official and Caixin PMI readings indicated a slower pace of growth in the services sector and a sharper contraction in the manufacturing industry. The RBA statement is up next and no rate changes are expected. As for New Zealand, the GDT auction could show if another fall in dairy prices was recorded.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some of its wins when risk appetite improved in the market. Data from the US economy was actually stronger than expected, as the ISM manufacturing PMI rose from 48.2 to 49.5, outpacing the consensus at 48.5. The ADP non-farm employment change report is due today and a 185K increase in hiring is expected, slower than the previous 205K gain.
EUR
The euro advanced against the dollar and yen but was no match to comdoll strength. Data from the region was mostly in line with expectations, with the unemployment rate improving from 10.4% to 10.3%. Only the Spanish unemployment change report is due today and a 0.2% increase in joblessness is expected.
GBP
The pound bounced back against the lower-yielding currencies but gave up ground to commodity currencies as risk appetite returned to the markets. Data from the UK was weaker than expected, as the manufacturing PMI fell from 52.9 to 50.8, worse than the projected drop to 52.3. The construction PMI is due today and an improvement from 55.0 to 55.5 is eyed.
CHF
The franc returned some of its recent gains even when data from Switzerland came in stronger than expected. Retail sales ticked up 0.2% versus the projected 1.2% drop while the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.0 to 51.6 instead of dropping to the estimated 49.6 figure. Swiss GDP data is due today and a 0.2% expansion is expected.
JPY
The yen was in a very weak spot when risk appetite returned yesterday. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and there are still no reports due today, leaving market sentiment in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls scored big wins against their forex counterparts when data came in strong and risk appetite returned. Canada’s GDP showed a 0.2% expansion for December, higher than the projected 0.1% uptick, and New Zealand’s GDT auction showed a 1.2% rebound in prices. Earlier today, Australia reported a 0.6% GDP reading for Q4 2015 while the previous figure was upgraded from 0.9% to 1.1%. Crude oil inventories data are due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar weakened against most of its peers even though data from the US economy came in strong. Risk appetite came into play, leading traders out of the safe-haven dollar despite positive expectations for Friday’s NFP. The ADP report showed a 214K gain in hiring versus the projected 185K increase but the previous reading was downgraded. Initial jobless claims and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI are lined up today.
EUR
The euro managed to advance against the lower-yielding currencies but was still in a weak spot against the comdolls. Data from the euro zone was mostly weaker than expected, as Spain reported a higher increase in unemployment while the region’s PPI showed a sharper than expected drop. Final services PMI readings from its top economies and euro zone retail sales data are due today.
GBP
The pound was able to score some gains even though the UK printed another downbeat PMI reading. The construction PMI fell from 55.0 to 54.2 in February versus the projected gain to 55.5. For today, the services PMI is due and a drop from 55.6 to 55.1 is eyed and a weak reading might spur losses for the British currency.
CHF
The franc was able to rake in a few gains when the Swiss GDP beat expectations. The economy grew 0.4% in Q4 2015, higher than the projected 0.2% figure and the previous 0.1% contraction. There are no reports up for release from Switzerland today, keeping risk sentiment in play.
JPY
The Japanese yen chalked up another losing day when risk appetite remained in the financial markets. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and there are no catalysts lined up today, which suggests that another risk-on day might spur more losses for the yen.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie carried on with its climb following a strong GDP release. The report showed that the Australian economy grew 0.6% in Q4 2015 versus expectations of a 0.5% expansion. Crude oil inventories showed another strong buildup in stockpiles, temporarily weighing on prices, but the slowdown in production led to a quick boost. Australia’s trade balance beat expectations with a smaller than expected 2.94 billion AUD deficit and a 1% gain exports.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up more ground against its peers when data came in weaker than expected. Initial jobless claims stood at 278K versus the expected 271K figure while both non-farm productivity and unit labor costs saw downgrades. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI dipped from 53.5 to 53.4, higher than the projected 53.2 reading, but the employment component landed in contraction. The NFP report is due today and a 195K increase in hiring is eyed.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness and was able to score some wins against some of its higher-yielding peers. Data from the euro zone was mostly in line with expectations, with the retail sales report even printing a stronger than expected 0.4% uptick. Only the retail PMI reading is due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound refused to back down even with downbeat services PMI data, as traders are probably easing up on their Brexit fears. The report showed a drop from 55.6 to 52.7, worse than the estimated fall to 55.1 to show a slowdown in industry growth. There are no reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc advanced to the dollar in recent trading sessions, even though there were no major reports out of Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up for today so the franc could take its cue from market sentiment or euro price action.
JPY
The Japanese yen was still in a weak spot but its drop was slightly slower compared to previous days. Data from Japan came in better than expected today, as average cash earnings rose 0.4% versus the projected 0.2% uptick. Risk sentiment could push yen pairs around for the rest of the day ahead of the NFP release.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls carried on with their rallies, led mostly by the Aussie on the heels of upbeat trade balance data. The report showed a smaller deficit, thanks to a 1% gain in exports. For today, however, the retail sales release churned out a weaker than expected gain of 0.3% versus the estimated 0.4% rise. Canada’s Ivey PMI is due later today and a drop from 66.0 to 58.2 is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up ground despite stronger than expected NFP data. The economy added 242K jobs in February versus the projected 195K increase while the previous reading was upgraded from 151K to 172. However, average hourly earnings fell 0.1% instead of posting the projected 0.2% uptick. There are no major reports due from the US economy today but a couple of Fed officials (Brainard and Fischer) are set to give speeches.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar and yen weakness, even though there were no major reports out of the euro zone. The retail PMI showed a small gain from 48.9 to 50.1, reflecting a return to industry expansion. German factory orders and euro zone Sentix investor confidence data are up for release today and another set of strong figures could spur euro rallies.
GBP
The pound advanced against the dollar and yen but was no match to comdoll strength on Friday. There were no major reports released from the UK then and there are no reports due today, although MPC member Haldane has a testimony lined up.
CHF
The franc had a volatile trading day as it struggled to hold on to its gains against the dollar. There were no reports out of Switzerland then while today has the Swiss foreign currency reserves data on tap, possibly indicating whether or not the SNB has been intervening in the markets.
JPY
The yen continued to lose ground as risk appetite improved in the markets. Average cash earnings in Japan showed a stronger than expected 0.4% gain versus the projected 0.2% uptick. Today has a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda lined up.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Canadian dollar posted strong gains at the end of the week, thanks to climbing crude oil prices on falling US rig counts. The Australian dollar was in close second as it found strong support from mostly upbeat reports released earlier in the week. Earlier today, the ANZ job advertisements report showed a 1.2% decline in openings, hinting at weaker prospects down the line.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had another losing day, as there were no major reports to give it any support yesterday. FOMC officials Fischer and Brainard highlighted the pickup in inflation seen recently, citing that the outlook seems positive. However, the labor market conditions showed a drop from -0.8 to -2.4 to indicate weaker prospects, possibly due to falling wages. Only the NFIB small business index is due from the US today.
EUR
The euro managed a quick recovery in recent trading sessions, even though data from the region was weak. The Sentix investor confidence index fell from 6.0 to 5.5 instead of rising to the projected 8.8 figure. German industrial production data is due today and a 0.6% rebound is eyed.
GBP
The pound continued to advance against most of its forex rivals, as Brexit fears eased. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday and none are due today, although BOE Governor Carney’s speech could bring volatility to pound pairs.
CHF
The franc took advantage of dollar weakness but was no match to euro strength yesterday. Swiss foreign currency reserves fell from 575B CHF to 571B CHF, indicating no evidence of currency intervention. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and a rise from 3.4% to 3.5% is eyed.
JPY
The yen regained some ground against its forex counterparts when the Japanese GDP reading was upgraded to show a smaller 0.3% contraction from the initially reported 0.4% drop in growth. Consumer confidence data and the Economy Watchers sentiment index are up for release next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie continued to rally on the heels of rising crude oil prices, as the EIA projected a decline in production for April. However, the Kiwi and Aussie had to retreat earlier today when the Chinese trade balance missed expectations. The report showed a smaller surplus of 210B USD versus the projected 339B USD figure.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground in yesterday’s trading session when risk aversion returned. Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, as the NFIB small business index fell from 93.9 to 92.9 to indicate weakening conditions. Wholesale inventories and crude oil inventories data are due today.
EUR
The euro was in a weak spot in recent trading sessions, as traders are probably pricing in additional easing measures from the ECB. Data from the euro zone was mostly in line with expectations, with German industrial production even coming in better than consensus at its 3.3% gain. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound gave up ground when a UK newspaper confirmed that the Queen is backing a Brexit. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday, although BOE Governor Carney’s speech did lead some analysts to push back rate hike expectations later into 2017. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 0.2% rebound is eyed.
CHF
The franc was no match to dollar strength even though data from Switzerland was actually better than expected. The Swiss CPI showed a 0.2% gain in price levels versus the projected 0.1% drop. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen regained ground when traders pared their riskier holdings, even though data from Japan was weaker than expected. The consumer confidence index fell from 42.5 to 40.1 while the Economy Watchers index fell from 46.6 to 44.6. Preliminary machine tool orders data is due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls retreated upon seeing downbeat trade balance data from China, as this was caused by double-digit declines in both imports and exports. Rising oil stockpiles as reported by the API also weighed on crude oil and the Loonie. The BOC and RBNZ are set to give their monetary policy statements today, with the former expected to give a neutral statement and the latter likely to ease or sound dovish.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar got back on its feet in recent trading sessions, advancing to the European currencies and Japanese yen. It gave up some ground to the Aussie and Loonie but also rallied against the Kiwi after the RBNZ statement. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday, leaving it to act mostly as a counter currency. For today, initial jobless claims and natural gas storage data are lined up.
EUR
The euro resumed its slump against most of its counterparts as there were no reports from the euro zone to prop it up. Traders are probably positioning ahead of today’s ECB statement as well, with Draghi expected to announce a large expansion to their current quantitative easing program. Another deposit rate cut deeper into negative territory is also expected.
GBP
The pound struggled to hold on to its recent gains as UK data came in mixed. Manufacturing production showed a stronger than expected 0.7% gain versus the projected 0.2% uptick while industrial production showed a weaker than expected 0.3% gain. There are no reports lined up from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was stuck in consolidation as traders are also awaiting the ECB statement. Although SNB head Jordan admitted that deposit rates can only go so low, market watchers are still wary of currency intervention in case the franc appreciates too much.
JPY
The yen regained ground against the higher-yielding currencies but weakened to the dollar. Japan’s preliminary machine tool orders showed a sharper 22.6% decline compared to the previous 17.2% drop, reflecting weaker business conditions. There are no reports lined up from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie drew support from a relatively optimistic BOC statement and their decision to keep rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the RBNZ decided to cut interest rates by 0.25%, pushing the Kiwi much lower against its peers. The Aussie was able to get a boost from upbeat Chinese CPI, which jumped from 1.8% to 2.3% instead of holding steady as expected.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar weakened yesterday as the ECB stimulus expansion brought risk appetite back to the financial markets. Only the initial jobless claims report was released from the US then and it showed a better than expected 259K reading versus the projected 272K figure. Data on US import prices is up for release today and a 0.7% decline is eyed.
EUR
The euro had a volatile time during the ECB statement, as the announcement of rate cuts and an expansion of the QE program from 60 billion EUR to 80 billion EUR in monthly asset purchases initially triggered a sharp drop. However, the shared currency quickly reversed these losses during the press conference that followed since Draghi mentioned that they have no plans to cut rates again in the near future. German final CPI and Italian industrial production data are due today.
GBP
The pound scored a few gains as it took advantage of the risk-on mood that followed the ECB statement. There were no major reports out of the UK then while today has the trade balance, construction output, and consumer inflation expectations data on tap.
CHF
The franc took its cue from the euro and initially sold off then rallied after the ECB statement. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and there aren’t any lined up for today, which suggests that it could continue to trail the euro’s price action.
JPY
The yen had a mixed performance as it consolidated to the dollar but gave up ground to higher-yielding currencies. Earlier today Japan reported a sharp drop in its BSI manufacturing index from 3.8 to -7.9 instead of improving to 4.2 to indicate industry contraction.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to take advantage of risk rallies but caved to the euro and franc. The Loonie was also under a bit of selling pressure as headlines indicated that Iran might not participate in the upcoming meeting among oil-producing nations. Canada’s jobs report is up for release next and a 10.2K rebound in hiring is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up ground on Friday when risk appetite returned to the financial markets. There were no major reports out of the US then but the medium-tier import prices data showed a smaller 0.3% decline compared to the projected 0.7% drop. There are no major reports lined up from the US economy today, leaving traders to price in expectations for the FOMC statement later in the week.
EUR
The euro regained ground to the dollar but weakened to the commodity currencies. Only the Italian industrial production report was released from the region then and it showed a stronger than expected 1.9% gain. Euro zone industrial production data is due today and a 1.7% rebound is eyed.
GBP
The pound was also able to score gains against the dollar, yen, and euro. Medium-tier reports from the UK came in mostly in line with expectations and there are no reports up for release for today.
CHF
The franc carried on with its climb against the dollar despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland then. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc might be driven by market sentiment.
JPY
The yen was in a weak spot as risk-taking took place. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy then and none are due today, which means that yen pairs could be sensitive to risk sentiment and positioning ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ statement.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls raked in strong gains on Friday, driven mostly by the pickup in crude oil. As it turns out, US oil rig counts have fallen again, leading to speculations of lower production levels and upward pressure on prices. Canada printed a weaker than expected jobs report as it lost 2.3K jobs in February and saw the jobless rate rise to 7.3%. Over the weekend, data from China came in mixed as industrial production and retail sales fell short of forecasts while fixed asset investment turned out better than expected.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its forex peers when the drop in oil prices brought risk aversion back. There were no reports out of the US economy then while today has the retail sales due. Headline consumer spending could fall by 0.1% while core consumer spending could show a 0.1% drop, with weaker than expected data likely to push the Greenback down.
EUR
The euro retreated to the dollar and yen but managed to stay afloat against comdolls. There were no reports released form the euro zone yesterday while today has the French final CPI and quarterly employment change numbers for the region.
GBP
The pound took a break from its climb in recent trading sessions, possibly because traders are positioning ahead of a downbeat BOE statement. There were no reports released from the UK economy yesterday and there are still no reports due today.
CHF
The franc took its cue from the euro and gave back its recent wins to the dollar. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today so the franc might just trail the euro or react to market sentiment.
JPY
Yen pairs are trading carefully ahead of the BOJ statement, although no actual policy changes are expected for now. The central bank just implemented negative deposit rates in their previous statement and might sit on its hands for now. Any indication that further easing measures are in the cards could mean more yen losses.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls retreated in recent sessions when the OPEC monthly report showed revisions in supply and demand forecasts. Also the OPEC meeting appears to have been postponed for April, keeping the uncertainty on a proposed production cap in play. New Zealand’s GDT auction is coming up next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar managed to post feeble gains against its counterparts despite mixed data from the US economy. Headline retail sales fell 0.1% as expected while core retail sales showed a 0.1% dip instead of the estimated 0.2% decline. Headline PPI indicated a 0.2% drop as expected while the core PPI stayed flat instead of showing the projected 0.1% increase. For today, the FOMC statement could spur a lot of volatility since there will be a press conference after the release of the updated forecasts and dot plot of rate expectations.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it consolidated to the dollar, lost ground to the yen, and advanced against the pound and comdolls. There were no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday and there are no top-tier catalysts due today.
GBP
The pound sold off against its peers despite the lack of catalysts from the UK. Jobs data is up for release today and a 8.8K drop in claimants is eyed, possibly enough to keep the jobless rate unchanged at 5.1%. Traders are also set to pay close attention to the average earnings index, which might improve from 1.9% to 2.0%, for signs of wage growth.
CHF
The franc was also stuck mostly in consolidation since there were no major reports out of Switzerland. Its economic schedule is still empty for today which means that the franc could simply take its cue from sentiment.
JPY
The yen raked in gains against most of its counterparts when the BOJ refrained from easing policy again. Data from Japan also came in somewhat better than expected, as the industrial production figure was maintained at 3.7% while tertiary industry activity grew 1.5%. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were unable to make much headway as commodity prices weakened again. In New Zealand, the Global Dairy Trade auction showed a 2.9% drop in prices following the previous 1.4% gain. Its current account balance also showed the huge impact of falling dairy prices on the deficit. Canadian manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases data are due next, along with New Zealand’s quarterly GDP towards the end of the US session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way