USD
The US dollar continued to advance against its peers as US stock markets closed higher again on the eve of the elections. Markets seem hopeful that Clinton will emerge victorious, as this scenario would mean less uncertainty for the economy, although the poll leads suggest that it’s still too close to call. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so all the focus would be on the outcome of the elections.
EUR
The euro was mostly weaker against its peers even though data from the euro zone came in stronger than expected. The Sentix investor confidence index was up from 8.5 to 13.1, higher than the projected climb to 8.7, while retail sales fell by only 0.2% versus the estimated 0.3% drop. German industrial production and trade balance data are lined up today but traders could be more sensitive to market sentiment leading up to the US elections.
GBP
The pound gave up a bit of ground as traders probably booked profits after the reaction to the British High Court ruling last week. UK Halifax HPI posted a 1.4% rise in prices versus the estimated 0.3% uptick, keeping upside price pressures in play. UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are due today and disappointing results could remind traders of the Brexit-related uncertainties that are prevailing.
CHF
The franc advanced against most of its currency counterparts, prompting a bit of jawboning from SNB officials. In a TV interview, a policymaker said that they are watching CHF flows closely in relation to US election market movements and that they would not hesitate to intervene if necessary. SNB foreign currency reserves ticked slightly higher from 628B CHF to 630B CHF while CPI was weaker than expected at 0.1% versus 0.2%.
JPY
The Japanese yen wasn’t able to keep up with dollar strength but it advanced slightly against its other peers, possibly on profit-taking ahead of the US elections. Only the Japanese leading indicators is due today and a small dip is eyed, although risk sentiment might remain the bigger driver of yen price action for the rest of the day.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to take advantage of the pickup in risk-taking, spurred by strong gains in US stock markets. There were no major reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday. Today’s Chinese trade balance release featured weaker than expected results, as the surplus widened from 278B CNY to 325B CNY, short of the estimated 366B CNY figure. Exports were down 7.3% while imports lagged 1.4%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar failed to establish a clear direction while the elections were going on, only to tumble sharply when Trump started gaining the lead in electoral votes. US futures are deep in the red at this point, as a Trump win could lead markets to gap lower in the US session.
EUR
The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but is still lower against the rest of its peers, as economic data from the region was mostly weaker than expected. German industrial production sank 1.8% versus the projected 0.6% drop while both Germany and France printed subpar trade balance readings. Only the EU economic forecasts are due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound resumed its slide against its peers upon seeing downbeat industrial production data. The report printed a 0.4% slump versus the estimated 0.1% uptick while manufacturing production was up 0.6%. The UK Supreme Court accepted the government’s appeal against requiring parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50, which revives the possibility of having the Brexit negotiations start in the first quarter of next year. The Supreme Court will convene from December 5-8 and announce their decision early next year.
CHF
The franc is taking advantage of the risk-off flows so far, as polls are showing that Trump is holding on to his lead against Hillary Clinton. The Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected and there are no reports due from Switzerland today, keeping risk sentiment in play. Bear in mind, though, that SNB officials have warned that they could intervene in the market if necessary.
JPY
The yen is also benefitting from the flight to safety spurred by the early results in the US elections. Medium-tier data from Japan was mixed but traders appear to be shrugging it off and paying closer attention to the bloodbath in the financial markets. Still, a come-from-behind victory by Clinton could force the yen to return its recent gains.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls are able to benefit from dollar weakness but are taking huge hits against lower-yielding currencies due to the rise in risk aversion. Chinese CPI and PPI numbers are up for release but the attention seems to be mostly on the US elections. The RBNZ is set to announce its policy decision and potential 0.25% rate cut in the late US session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was off to a poor start when Trump’s victory became apparent but pulled off a strong comeback during the US session as equities recovered. Investors seem to be pricing in the potential impact of corporate tax reforms and Trump’s other economic plans on companies. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so the focus could stay on the government’s economic agenda.
EUR
The euro tossed and turned in the aftermath of the US elections but eventually ended lower against its peers. There were no reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has French industrial production and non-farm payrolls.*
GBP
The pound also had a volatile run during the announcement of the US election results but ended slightly higher. UK goods trade balance indicated a larger than expected shortfall. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was able to profit from the initial risk-off selloff but soon gave back its gains and more. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday but the SNB’s constant intervention threat was enough for traders to book profits from their long franc positions quickly. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today.
JPY
The yen ended up one of the biggest losers for the day as it wound up giving up its intraday gains back to its rivals when risk appetite returned. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could still be the main driver of price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were pushed and pulled by changing risk sentiment, giving back some of its previous gains in today’s Asian session. The RBNZ cut rates as expected while Wheeler emphasized that a lower exchange rate for the Kiwi is needed. US crude oil inventories showed a larger than expected buildup of 2.4 million barrels. There are no other reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar continued to advance against its peers as traders tried to stay optimistic about the Trump presidency. Equity indices closed higher once more ahead of today’s Veterans’ Day holiday. There are no reports lined up from the US economy today and liquidity is expected to be thin.
EUR
The euro had another volatile run as risk sentiment switched back and forth. Euro zone data came in mixed, with French industrial production down 1.1% versus the projected 0.3% uptick. French non-farm payrolls and Italian industrial production beat expectations. Only medium-tier inflation reports are due from Germany today while French banks are closed for the holiday.
GBP
The pound was the big winner for the day as the pickup in risk appetite and general feeling of optimism in the markets boosted the UK currency off its lows. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the construction output report due.
CHF
The franc lost a lot of ground to its peers as risk appetite returned. Traders had been on the lookout for SNB intervention anyway, which explains why the Swiss currency quickly gave back its wins. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
JPY
The Japanese yen was also in the losers’ bench because of the risk-on market environment. Data from Japan was slightly better than expected as the tertiary industry activity index printed a 0.1% dip versus the projected 0.2% drop. Moving forward, market sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were no match to dollar strength but were able to take advantage of the risk-on flows against its other counterparts. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today but BOC Governor Poloz has a speech lined up.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar closed the week on a strong note as traders continued to focus on the silver lining to Trump’s election win. Equities managed to squeeze out more gains at the end of the week and traders are now turning their attention to FOMC rate hike prospects. US preliminary consumer sentiment also beat expectations by rising to 91.2. There are no reports due from the US economy today.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro lost a lot of ground to its peers on Friday as traders are focusing on the political event risks in the region. Data was mostly in line with expectations last Friday while today has the euro zone industrial production and a speech by ECB head Draghi lined up. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.9% drop in production, following the previous 1.6% gain.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound continued its ascent until the end of the week, even though there were no major reports from the UK economy then. It seems as though the improved sentiment in the US has been carrying over to the UK, with some predicting that Brexit would turn out well for the economy down the line. Earlier today, Rightmove HPI printed a 1.1% drop in house prices.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc kept falling against most of its counterparts as risk appetite improved and the threat of SNB intervention prevented traders from pushing their previous long positions. Swiss PPI is up for release today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed, weaker compared to the earlier 0.3% gain.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen continued to give up ground against its peers as risk-taking carried on until the end of the week. Over the weekend, Japan reported a stronger than expected GDP reading of 0.5% versus the estimated 0.2% expansion. Its industrial production report is due next and a flat reading is eyed.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls gave up their recent gains on downbeat Chinese data, weaker oil prices, and the earthquake in New Zealand. Chinese retail sales slumped from 10.7% to 10% on a year-over-year basis. Industrial production was unchanged at 6.1% versus the projected rise to 6.2% while fixed asset investment ticked slightly higher. New Zealand’s quarterly retail sales report is due next and slower gains for both headline and core figures are eyed.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
USD
The US dollar continued to advance against its peers but its gains were limited, suggesting that it may have already peaked. There were no reports of out of the US economy yesterday while today has retail sales figures on deck. Headline consumer spending is expected to have increased by 0.6% while core retail sales likely rose by 0.5%. US import prices and the Empire State manufacturing index are also lined up.
EUR
The euro was the weakest performer of the day as the upcoming Italian referendum led several traders to speculate that a change in leadership could expose the country to a vote to leave the region. Euro zone industrial production fell 0.8% versus the projected 0.9% slump. German and Italian preliminary GDP readings are up for release today, along with the French preliminary CPI and the region’s flash GDP reading.
GBP
The pound paused from its strong climb, as traders probably trimmed their positions ahead of this week’s UK event risks. UK CPI is due today and a rise in the headline figure from 1.0% to 1.1% is expected while the core figure could tick down from 1.5% to 1.4%. BOE Inflation Report hearings are also scheduled today and traders are waiting to hear what policymakers have planned.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as it functioned more as a counter currency. Data from Switzerland was weaker than expected as the PPI printed a meager 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.2% gain. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc might be sensitive to market sentiment or country-specific action.
JPY
The yen lost further ground against its peers when risk appetite extended its stay in the markets. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls struggled to stay afloat against the dollar but were able to rack up gains against the yen and the euro. Chinese data was mostly weaker than expected, particularly when it comes to retail sales and industrial production. New Zealand has its quarterly retail sales report lined up next and weaker consumer spending data is eyed. The GDT auction is also set to take place and another rise in dairy prices could lift the Kiwi.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The dollar extended its gains across the board on stronger than expected US retail sales. The headline figure showed a 0.8% gain for October while the core reading also indicated a 0.8% increase, higher than the projected 0.6% and 0.5% gains respectively. The Empire State manufacturing index also beat expectations, and so did import prices data. US industrial production data and PPI readings are lined up today.
EUR
The euro was still weak against its peers on concerns about Italy’s referendum. Data from the region was mostly better than expected, except for the German preliminary GDP. The region’s flash GDP reading came in line with expectations of a 0.3% expansion. German ZEW economic sentiment beat expectations with a rise from 6.2 to 13.8, outpacing the consensus at 7.9. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound was in a weak spot after its CPI readings came in mostly weaker than expected. Headline CPI slipped from 1.0% to 0.9% instead of rising to 1.1% as expected while core CPI fell from 1.5% to 1.2%, lower than the estimated drop to 1.4%. However, the pound got a bit of a boost when a report revealed that legislation could delay Brexit by as much as two years. UK jobs data is due today and a 1.9K rise in claimants is eyed while the average earnings index could hold steady at 2.3%.
CHF
The franc gave up ground to the dollar but was stronger against the European currencies. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today, keeping risk sentiment in play.
JPY
The yen gave up ground to the dollar and commodity currencies as risk-taking continued. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so yen pairs could be pushed around by sentiment once more.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were slightly stronger on improved data, with the Loonie leading the pack on higher crude oil prices. Traders are expecting an OPEC output deal to come through since the Secretary General has scheduled meetings with energy ministers from Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Russia in the weeks leading up to the official meeting. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 4.5% gain in dairy prices. Quarterly PPI and retail sales are lined up next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The dollar had a bit of trouble extending its gains across the board as data from the US disappointed. Headline PPI was flat instead of posting the projected 0.3% gain while core PPI showed a 0.2% dip instead of the projected 0.2% uptick. Industrial production was also flat in October while the previous reading was downgraded to show a 0.2% drop. CPI data is due today, along with the highly-anticipated speech from Fed head Yellen.
EUR
The euro was still among the weaker performers for the day as bulls are trimming long positions ahead of Italy’s referendum. There have been no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has the final CPI readings and the ECB meeting minutes.
GBP
The pound was able to stay afloat against most of its counterparts even though data from the UK was mixed. Claimant count rose by 9.8K versus the projected 1.9K rise while the previous reading was revised to show a larger rise in joblessness. Still, the unemployment rate fell from 4.9% to 4.8%. UK retail sales data is due today and a 0.5% rebound is eyed.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as it lost ground to the dollar, advanced against the euro, and consolidated to the pound. Swiss ZEW economic expectations rose from 5.2 to 8.9 to reflect improved sentiment. There are no reports due from Switzerland today but SNB member Maechler has a speech lined up.
JPY
The yen regained some ground against its peers, likely due to profit-taking. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie chalked up another day in gains due to a pickup in crude oil prices. US EIA inventories rose by 5.3 million barrels versus the projected increase of 0.4 million barrels but comments from Russian energy minister Novak kept the commodity afloat. Australia reported a weaker than expected 9.8K gain in hiring versus the projected 20.3K rise while the previous reading was downgraded to show a 29K drop in hiring. New Zealand postponed its release of quarterly PPI and retail sales to the next Asian session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar kicked its rallies back in high gear after Yellen’s speech. The Fed Chairperson confirmed that a December rate hike is in the cards, citing that the economy has improved and is nearing full employment. She even cautioned that tightening might be necessary ahead of the new administration’s projected increase in fiscal stimulus for fear of causing the economy to overheat. Data from the US economy was also mostly stronger than expected, but core CPI and Philly Fed index came up short. Bullard, George, and Dudley have testimonies lined up today.
EUR
The euro continued its slide to the dollar but was slightly stronger against the yen and the commodity currencies. Euro zone headline final CPI was upgraded from 0.4% to 0.5% while the core reading was unchanged. German PPI and euro zone current account balance figures are due today.
GBP
The pound was able to put up a fight against its peers when UK retail sales printed an impressive 1.9% jump versus the projected 0.5% increase. The previous reading was also upgraded from a flat figure to a 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker but it managed to score gains against the euro. There were no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday and SNB official Maechler didn’t have anything new to say, although she has another testimony scheduled.*
JPY
The yen lost a lot of ground to the dollar and a few pips to the rest of its peers as risk appetite stayed in play. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The commodity currencies gave up ground to the dollar but managed to advance against the yen. Employment data from Australia was mixed, as employment change showed a 9.8K gain versus the projected 20.3K increase. Canadian CPI readings are due today and small improvements over the previous readings are eyed. New Zealand postponed its release of quarterly PPI and retail sales once more.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar ended the week strong, as traders continued to bank on stronger expectations of a Fed rate hike this December. There were no reports out of the US economy on Friday but Yellen’s hawkish tone from the previous day still lifted the dollar. There are no reports due from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro weakened to the dollar and pound but managed to stay afloat against the comdolls and yen. French elections and the upcoming Italian referendum are influencing the shared currency’s action these days, although ECB head Draghi’s testimony could lead to additional volatility in the latter sessions.
GBP
The pound had a mixed performance as it struggled to hold on to its gains in the absence of top-tier data. There are still no reports due from the UK today so Brexit-related updates could continue to influence the currency’s movements.
CHF
The franc gave up more ground to the dollar then consolidated to its European counterparts. SNB official Maechler once again spoke about negative interest rates and the need to keep the franc weak. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen was one of the weakest performers of the bunch as traders continued to pile on their long dollar positions. There were no reports from Japan then and none are due today, indicating that the moves were mostly a result of risk-taking.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up ground to the dollar but managed to stay afloat against the yen and the pound. Canada’s headline and core CPI printed 0.2% gains, slightly weaker than expected. New Zealand credit card spending and Canadian wholesale sales data are lined up for today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave back some of its recent gains as traders may be starting to book profits ahead of the Thanksgiving holidays. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday and only the Richmond manufacturing index and existing home sales are lined up for today.*
EUR
The euro was still in a weak spot against its peers even after ECB Governor Draghi tried to restore confidence in the region. Euro zone consumer confidence data is due today and no change in the -8 index is eyed.*
GBP
The pound made a strong bounce during the latter part of the UK trading session when Prime Minister May reiterated that they plan on getting the Brexit negotiations started by March 2017. She also sought to boost business confidence in assuring that new trade deals will be better for the UK economy and set the tone for an ambitious Autumn Forecast Statement due later on this week.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker across the board when risk appetite picked up. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the trade balance on tap. A smaller surplus is eyed compared to the previous 4.37B CHF so speculations of SNB intervention could return if export activity is significantly weak.
JPY
The yen continued to give up ground against its peers on risk appetite and inflows to the US dollar. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so risk sentiment could be the main driver for yen pairs, although profit-taking is also possible ahead of tomorrow’s holiday.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was the leader of the pack as stronger crude oil rallies ensued when sources from the OPEC technical talks confirmed that “some progress” is being made. Even though there are some concerns about Iran, several nations have expressed willingness to be flexible with Iran’s production levels. Canadian retail sales data are due today and strong gains are eyed, likely giving another boost for the currency.*
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance as it struggled to extend its gains against its counterparts. Medium-tier reports turned out better than expected but US traders seem to be booking profits ahead of the Thanksgiving holidays. US durable goods orders data is due today, along with the FOMC meeting minutes.
EUR
The euro consolidated to the dollar and advanced to the yen, but it was no match to comdoll strength. The region’s consumer confidence index improved from -8 to -6 but investors seem to be more focused on political event risks lined up, particularly the Italian referendum and French elections. Flash PMI readings from Germany and France are lined up today and strong improvements could keep the shared currency afloat.
GBP
The pound tried to advance against the dollar and yen but also paled in comparison to commodity currencies. UK public sector net borrowing was better than expected at 4.3 billion GBP. The government’s Autumn Forecast Statement is lined up today and optimistic forecasts and ambitious plans, as hinted at by PM May earlier in the week, could push the pound higher.
CHF
The franc was one of the weaker performers of the bunch as risk appetite pushed the lower-yielding currency down. Apart from that, Swiss trade balance came in below expectations, reviving fears of SNB intervention in order to keep export activity supported. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
JPY
The yen was still losing ground across the board, as traders pursued higher-yielding currencies. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today so thin liquidity and potentially higher volatility could be seen during the Asian session.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls strengthened across the board on improved risk sentiment, although the Loonie was slightly weaker on doubts about an OPEC output deal. Sources say that the technical talks went “successfully” but Iran and Iraq still have doubts when it comes to participating in production cuts. Canada’s retail sales also missed expectations. US crude oil inventories are due today and a large buildup could put more weight on crude oil.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar resumed its rallies across the board, buoyed by hawkish FOMC minutes and mostly strong data. Both headline and core durable goods orders figures beat expectations while the flash manufacturing PMI also posted an increase. Initial jobless claims and new home sales fell short of consensus. US banks are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday today.
EUR
The euro resumed its slide to the dollar but continued to take advantage of yen weakness. Flash PMI readings from Germany and France were mostly better than expected, except for the German flash manufacturing PMI. The German Ifo business climate index is due today and a rise from 110.5 to 110.6 is eyed.
GBP
The pound was still one of the stronger performers for the day as it chalked up gains after the Chancellor’s Autumn Forecast Statement. Hammond laid out plans for stronger spending and lower taxes in order to keep the economy afloat in transitioning out of the EU. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc extended its slide to the dollar and the pound but ended higher against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday, although SNB official Maechler emphasized that the franc remains overvalued.
JPY
The yen was the biggest loser, owing to the quake in Japan and risk-taking. Japanese banks reopened today but the yen still failed to draw support, as the flash manufacturing PMI slid from 51.4 to 51.1 instead of improving to 51.7.*
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls resumed their slide to the dollar but managed to go for more gains against the yen. Crude oil inventories posted a surprise draw of 1.3 million barrels instead of rising by 0.3 million barrels while Iraq expressed willingness to cooperate in an OPEC output deal. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
Dollar pairs barely budged in the recent trading sessions as US traders were off on a Thanksgiving holiday. Banks and markets reopen today but liquidity is still expected to be thin over the long weekend so the Greenback might simply react to market sentiment or stay in consolidation.
EUR
The euro also moved mostly sideways even though data came in slightly weaker than expected. The German Ifo business climate index was unchanged at 110.4 instead of improving to the estimated 110.6 reading. Italian retail sales data is due today and a flat reading is eyed.
GBP
The pound tried to advance against some of its peers and was able to rake in a few gains. There were no major reports out of the UK then while today has the second GDP estimate and the preliminary business investment figure. No changes are expected for the Q3 GDP at 0.5% while business investment likely fell 0.2% for the quarter.
CHF
The franc took a break from its recent selloff to cruise sideways while most traders were out on vacation. There were no major reports out from the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today.
JPY
The yen continued to bleed against its forex counterparts as risk appetite remained in play even though most traders were enjoying the long weekend. Data from Japan came in line with expectations, as both Tokyo and national core CPI showed 0.4% declines. The BOJ core CPI is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls advanced against the yen but consolidated against most of its peers. New Zealand printed a stronger than expected trade deficit of 864 million NZD versus the estimated 950 million NZD while the previous reading was upgraded. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today, but oil-related headlines could push CAD pairs around.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The dollar gave back some of its recent gains on Friday as US traders were out on a holiday. The US currency was off to a bit of a weak start so far and there are no major reports lined up for the day so risk sentiment could push dollar pairs around.
EUR
The euro took advantage of the Thanksgiving holidays to make a correction against the dollar. The shared currency also pulled back against the yen and was mostly weaker against its other counterparts as well, even though there were no reports out of the euro zone economy on Friday.
GBP
The pound ended slightly higher against most of its peers on Friday, thanks to a stronger than expected preliminary business investment figure. The report showed a 0.9% gain for the quarter instead of the estimated 0.2% decline while the GDP reading was unchanged at 0.5%. UK CBI realized sales also printed a stronger than expected read. There are no reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc regained ground to the dollar and pound but was stuck in consolidation against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so the franc could continue moving as a counter currency.
JPY
The yen was off to a strong start this week, although there were no major reports out yet. Profit-taking off the recent rallies may be to blame for the slide in yen pairs, although PM Abe still has a speech in parliament ongoing. Japanese retail sales and household spending data are due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to pull up against the dollar but are still no match to yen strength. Over the weekend, China signaled scope for further stimulus while OPEC-related updates cast doubts on whether or not a deal can materialize this week. Talks seemed to break down between Saudi Arabia and Iran, signaling that an output deal might not be signed in the November 30 meeting.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was off to a bit of a weak start due to profit-taking and Trump’s Twitter tantrum over the weekend. As it turns out, Wisconsin is recounting votes and Clinton’s team is monitoring the results. US preliminary GDP data is due today and an upgrade from 2.9% to 3.0% is expected. The CB consumer confidence index is also lined up and a rise from 98.6 to 101.3 is eyed.
EUR
The euro slumped across the board on ECB Governor Draghi’s warnings about geopolitical uncertainties in the coming months. Italy has a referendum over the weekend and France’s primaries have shown a rise in populist sentiment. Medium-tier data from the region also fell short of estimates. Today has German import prices, German preliminary CPI, French consumer spending, and Spanish flash CPI due.*
GBP
The pound was also one of the weaker performers of the day as traders are bracing for a downbeat BOE Financial Stability Report. Rumor has it that Carney is meeting with top finance and business leaders to lobby for a delay in invoking Article 50 so as to provide more time for transition. Only medium-tier data such as net lending to individuals is due today.
CHF
The franc advanced to the pound but still caved to the dollar and the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so the franc could continue to function as a counter currency.
JPY
The yen managed to advance after seeing upbeat economic reports. Household spending dipped 0.4% year-over-year instead of showing the estimated 1.0% drop while retail sales fell 0.1% instead of slumping by 1.5%. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.0% as expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls continued to benefit from dollar weakness while the Loonie regained ground on positive remarks from BOC Governor Poloz. OPEC leaders are still in disarray, with the technical talks failing to reach an agreement on output cut levels and Iran and Iraq still hesitant to cooperate. The RBNZ financial stability report is due next but the focus would likely stay with oil-related headlines.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance despite seeing stronger than expected economic reports. The Q3 GDP reading was upgraded from 2.9% to 3.2% while the CB consumer confidence showed a large jump for the month. The core PCE price index, along with personal spending and income data, are lined up for today. ADP non-farm employment change, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, and the Fed Beige Book are also up for release.
EUR
The euro recovered against the dollar and the yen but caved to the commodity currencies. Euro zone medium-tier data, such as German preliminary CPI and French consumer spending, came in mostly stronger than expected. Euro zone flash CPI estimates are lined up today but political risks are still weighing on the shared currency.
GBP
The pound was stronger across the board as medium-tier UK data was upbeat. Net lending to individuals rose to 4.9M while mortgage approvals rose to 68K. The BOE Financial Stability Report is due today and Carney is expected to highlight the banking sector risks related to the Brexit. Bank stress test results are also due.
CHF
The franc was in a weak spot even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. Today has the UBS consumption indicator on tap and an improvement from the earlier 1.59 reading could allow the Swiss currency to recover.
JPY
The yen resumed its slide against most of its counterparts as Japan reported a lower than expected gain in preliminary industrial production. Japanese housing starts are still up for release but market sentiment could push yen pairs around for the rest of the day.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls strengthened but the Loonie was behind the pack due to lower odds of an OPEC deal. Iran has explicitly stated that it won’t be cutting production and Iraq won’t cooperate unless all the other members of the cartel are on board with the output deal. Canada’s monthly GDP and underlying inflation figures are due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was able to hold its ground, thanks to mostly upbeat economic data. The ADP non-farm employment change reading hinted at an upside NFP surprise while the Chicago PMI posted a sharp climb. Personal income was higher than expected but personal spending lagged. US initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing PMI are up for release, setting the tone for Friday’s NFP report.
EUR
The euro was able to recover against the commodity currencies and carried on its rally against the yen. Economic data from the euro zone came in line with expectations, particularly the CPI estimates, while the German retail sales figure surprised to the upside. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due today.
GBP
The pound was higher across the board after the BOE printed its Financial Stability Report and bank stress test results. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 51.3 to 51.4 is eyed, possibly reflecting a stronger expansion in the industry.
CHF
The franc slid to the dollar and pound but managed to bounce back against the euro. The KOF economic barometer missed estimates and printed a drop to 102.2 from the downgraded 103.9 figure. Swiss retail sales data is due today and a 2.0% slide is eyed.
JPY
The yen continued to slide against its counterparts and the final manufacturing PMI upgrade from 51.1 to 51.3 seemed to be of no help. There are no other reports due from Japan today so yen pairs could extend their climb or react to market sentiment.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The OPEC decided to cut production to 32.5 million barrels per day starting January next year in their first output deal in eight years. This comes after Saudi Arabia gave in to Iran’s demands to produce around 3.8 million barrels per day instead of cutting their own output to 3.7 million barrels per day. Australia’s private capital expenditure report came in weaker than expected with a 4% slide while China’s official manufacturing PMI beat expectations by rising to 51.7.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some of its recent gains despite seeing mostly stronger than expected reports. The ISM manufacturing PMI was up from 51.9 to 53.2 to indicate a faster pace of industry growth, but the jobs component saw a decline. The NFP is the main event for today and an increase of 177K is eyed, higher than the earlier 161K figure. Average hourly earnings could post a 0.2% uptick, slower than the earlier 0.4% increase.
EUR
The euro made a strong bounce against its peers on French President Hollande’s decision to drop out of the race. Data from the euro zone was also mostly stronger than expected, with some final manufacturing PMI readings enjoying upward revisions. Spanish unemployment change and euro zone PPI are lined up today.
GBP
The pound was somewhat weaker on downbeat UK manufacturing PMI results. The reading slid from 54.2 to 53.4 to show slower industry growth instead of rising to the projected 54.4 figure. UK construction PMI is due today and a drop from 52.6 to 52.3 is eyed.
CHF
The franc regained ground to the dollar but still ended lower to the euro and pound. Swiss retail sales and manufacturing PMI both surprised to the upside, with the former showing a smaller than expected 0.5% drop compared to the estimated 2.0% slide and the latter rising from 54.7 to 56.6. Swiss GDP is due today and a 0.3% expansion is eyed.
JPY
The yen carried on with its losing streak, although it managed to advance against the dollar and make some corrections against the commodity currencies. Japan’s final manufacturing PMI saw a slight upgrade but capital spending turned out much weaker than expected. There are no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie extended its climb against its rivals, backed by the OPEC output deal to cut production and support prices. Australia posted a stronger than expected 0.5% gain in retail sales versus the projected 0.3% increase. Canada is set to print its jobs report later today and might show a 16.5K drop in hiring.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance on Friday, as it erased some of its gains after the NFP release. The actual figure came in line with estimates of a 178K increase in hiring while the unemployment rate indicated a larger improvement to 4.6%. However, average hourly earnings fell 0.1% instead of rising by 0.2%, suggesting weak wage growth. The US final services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI are due today.
EUR
The euro suffered sharp losses and gapped lower against most of its peers this week after the Italian referendum rejected the proposed constitutional amendment. This has led PM Renzi to step down from his post, triggering additional political uncertainty in the region and possibly worsening the ongoing banking crisis in Italy. Euro zone retail sales and services PMI readings are up for release today.
GBP
The pound managed to advance in the forex race as traders flocked away from the euro and onto the UK currency instead. Apart from that, UK construction PMI beat expectations by rising from 52.6 to 52.8 instead of falling to 52.3. UK services PMI is due today and a dip from 54.5 to 54.2 is expected.
CHF
The franc was able to take advantage of euro weakness but was no match to pound strength. Swiss GDP was flat in Q3 instead of posting the estimated 0.3% expansion. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy this week but traders could be on edge for central bank intervention in light of the Italian referendum outcome.
JPY
The yen was able to recoup some of its recent losses as risk aversion returned after the Italian referendum. There were no reports out of Japan on Friday while today has the consumer confidence index due.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was able to hold on to its post-OPEC gains and also benefit from stronger than expected Canadian jobs data. The economy added 10.7K positions instead of losing 16.5K workers while the unemployment rate improved. In New Zealand, PM Key also stepped down, bringing political uncertainty to the mix as well.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way