Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 9, 2018)
The US dollar gained some ground to most of peers when Trump tempered his tough talk on tariffs, easing fears of a trade war. The focus shifts back to economic data today with the NFP report due. The US could report a 205K increase in hiring for February, slightly faster than the previous month's 200K gain. This might bring the jobless rate down from 4.1% to 4.0%. Analysts are also keeping close tabs on the average hourly earnings figure, which might post a 0.2% uptick.
The euro gained a lot of ground during the ECB statement as officials omitted the phrase on further easing. However, the shared currency retreated during the presser as Draghi reminded that this omis-sion should be put in context and that no additional actions have been discussed yet. Policymakers up-graded this year's growth forecast by only 0.1% while downgrading next year's inflation estimate. Me-dium-tier reports like German and French industrial production are due today.
The pound also gave up ground even though there were no major reports out of the UK. Today has the manufacturing production numbers on tap and analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% uptick. Brexit jitters still seem to be in play as the EU draft agreement was released earlier in the week. Industrial produc-tion could show a 1.5% rebound from the earlier 1.3% fall.
The franc weakened to its counterparts as risk-taking and dollar strength were in play. The Swiss job-less rate improved from 3.0% to 2.9% as expected. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.
The yen also weakened on risk-taking and dollar strength, along with pricing in of expectations ahead of the BOJ decision. No actual policy changes are eyed, although traders appear hopeful for more taper clues. Apart from that, sentiment and dollar demand could push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls, particularly the Loonie, were able to recover on Trump's tempered tone on tariffs. He noted that Mexico and Canada could be exempted while NAFTA negotiations are ongoing while other allies could see special treatment as well. Canada's employment change report is due today and it could show a 21.3K gain hiring after the earlier 88K decline, keeping the jobless rate steady at 5.9%. China printed stronger than expected CPI of 2.9% versus the 2.5% consensus.
By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way