Wednesday 6th January 2016
THE EURO closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off December’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. If it extends the aforementioned decline, December’s low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above Monday’s high crossing would confirm that a shortterm low has been posted.
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Friday 8th January 2016
THE EURO closed higher on Thursday thereby renewing the rally off December’s low. The highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it renews the rally off December’s high, the 25% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a shortterm top has been posted.
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EUR/USD
Chinese woes lead the way during the first week of the year, with plummeting equities triggering risk aversion rallies and favoring the Japanese Yen and Gold by the most. The Chinese government allowed the Yuan to fall faster than anticipated, leading to a sharp selloff in local share markets, that spread all over the financial world. On Friday however, risk sentiment improved, as the Shanghai composite closed the day with gains, while the December’s US Nonfarm payrolls report beat expectations by announcing the creation of 292K new jobs against expectations of 200K. Additionally, the headline reading for November was revised upward by 41K, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5%. Wages were the big miss, as average hourly earnings fell 0.04%, far from market’s expectations of a 0.2% growth. The dollar spiked after the release, ending the day with gains against most of its major rivals, exception made by the EUR and the JPY. The EUR/USD pair recovered from a daily low set at 1.0802 following the announcement, and closed the week a handful of pips below the high set at 1.0939, trapped between Fibonacci levels. Technically the daily chart shows that the price has fallen down to the 61.8% retracement of the December rally, where strong buying interest pushed it back higher, although sellers keep surging around the 23.6% of the same rally around 1.0925, the immediate resistance. In the same chart, the technical readings present quite a neutral stance as the technical indicators remain stuck around their midlines. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, bulls retain control, as the technical indicators are grinding higher above their midlines, whist the price has recovered above a now bullish 20 SMA. The immediate support for this Monday comes at 1.0845, the 38.2% retracement of the same rally.
Support levels:1.0845 1.0800 1.0750
Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0960 1.1000
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GOLD
Gold prices continued retreating from their recent highs, with spot breaking below $1,100.00 a troy ounce in the American afternoon and settling around $1,095.00 by the end of the US session. The bright metal eases in spite of the early risk aversion sentiment, reacting to a strongerthanexpected US employment report released last Friday. The commodity has been quite sensitive to US data for most of 2015, mostly in relation to how the FED would react to it. A stronger job report, usually signals more chances of a rate hike, and therefore affects the commodity. Anyway, the long term bearish trend has been far from giving signs of exhaustion, and this recent behavior suggest the commodity will likely resume its slide. Daily basis, the price faltered around the 100 DMA, while the technical indicators turned south, but so far hold above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart, the bearish momentum is stronger after the technical indicators crossed below their midlines, while the price extends below its 20 SMA. The immediate support comes at 1,091.80, the 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish run.
Support levels:1,091.80 1,082.10 1,076.10
Resistance levels:1,097.65 1,113.05 1,122.60
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WTI CRUDE 34.91
Oil prices have continued to move lower on Tuesday, with the US benchmark falling briefly below $30.00 a barrel for the first time since December 2003. West Texas Intermediate oil for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell more than 4% to a low of $29.93. The benchmark has lost almost 20% so far this year. Brent crude was trading at $30.86 a barrel, 3.22% down, after hitting a low of $30.40. Concerns over a global supply glut coupled with Chinese economic slowdown, whilst a strengthening dollar is also among the key drivers pressuring oil prices nowadays. From a technical point of view, the commodity is strongly bearish and far from suggesting a reversal, as in the daily chart, the technical indicators continue heading south, despite being in extreme oversold territory, while the price extended further below a strongly bearish 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart, is notable that the commodity fell sharply lower on a spike towards its 20 SMA, currently at 32.25 and a strong resistance in the case of a sudden recovery, whilst the technical indicators have lost their bearish strength, but remain within oversold territory.
Support levels:29.90 29.30 28.50
Resistance levels:30.85 31.60 32.25
EUR/USD
Chinese trade surplus above market’s expectations interrupted riskaverse trading during the first half of the day, helping the American dollar advancing against most of its mayors. The sentiment however, become back sour in the US afternoon, as oil prices plummeted, dragging local shares lower, and boosting again safe havens, with gold being the overall daily winner. The EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.0804 ahead of the US opening, as market’s positive mood favored the greenback. The pair however, trimmed its intraday losses and advanced up to 1.0881 during the American afternoon, but also failed to sustain gains, ending the day with limited gains in the 1.0850 region. Technically, the pair maintains the neutral stance seen on previous updates, with a slightly positive tone coming from the 1 hour chart as the price is above its 20 SMA and a strong static Fibonacci resistance at 1.0845, the 38.2% retracement of the December rally. According to the 4 hours chart, the upside remains limited, with the price unable to establish above a bearish 20 SMA, and the technical indicators losing their upward potential within negative territory.
Support levels:1.0845 1.0800 1.0750
Resistance levels: 1.0880 1.0925 1.0950
WTI CRUDE 34.91
Oil prices bounced off 12year lows, with WTI crude futures advancing up to $31.75 a barrel before settling some cents above 31.00. The recovery has spurred some optimism in the financial world, although it’s far from confirming a bottom has been reached, as the price remains within the lower half of this week’s range, while, even more important, the fundamental background remains the same. US sweet, light crude daily chart shows that the technical indicators are recovering partially within oversold territory, whilst the 20 SMA heads strongly lower around 35.05, all of which reflects the strength of the latest bearish momentum. In the 4 hours chart, the price is currently a few cents above a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators turned south around their midlines, losing their upward potential after completing a bullish corrective movement, all of which increases the risk of a new leg south for this Friday.
Support levels: 30.85 29.90 29.30
Resistance levels:31.75 32.40 33.10
EUR/USD
Oil trading at over 12year lows have led the way in the financial world this past week, and it will likely remain as the main theme during this upcoming days, particularly after international sanctions on Iran have been finally lifted, which translates in another country selling the commodity in an oversupplied market. Although the country may not began selling oil immediately, sentiment will be no doubts affected by the announcement, and the commodity may plunge further lower. The EUR is being benefited by the risk averse environment due to is condition of funding currency, although the upside is still seen limited, particularly ahead of the ECB meeting this week.Rallies towards the 1.1000 figure continued to attract selling interest, but a slightly bullish tone prevails according to technical readings, given that the pair has recovered sharply from the 1.0710 region, tested early January, the 61.8% retracement of the December rally, and currently struggles to overcome the 23.6% retracement of the same rally at 1.0925. In the daily chart, the technical indicators head higher within neutral territory, while the price has been moving back and forth around a horizontal 20 SMA. Also in the daily chart, a bearish 100 SMA has contained advances last Friday, currently offering a dynamic resistance around 1.0965, although the key for a bullish breaking is 1.1060, the December high and the 200 DMA. In the 4 hours chart, the price has advanced above its moving averages, but they are all confined to a tight 20 pips range and lack directional strength, while the technical indicators hold above their midlines, but are currently flat.
Support levels: 1.0880 1.0845 1.0800
Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0965 1.1000
WTI CRUDE
Crude oil prices gapped lower at the weekly opening, with US sweet, light crude falling down to $28.35 a barrel, as economic sanctions against Iran were lifted on Sunday after the country complied with a nuclear deal. The news mean that the Islamic Republic can pump around half a million barrels a day, adding to the ongoing global glut. Brent crude fell as low as $27.67 a barrel, its lowest since 2003, before recovering to trade at $28.86. US WTI, bounced intraday up to 29.83, but fell below the 29.00 mark by the end of the day, retaining the bearish tone seen on previous updates. Technically the daily candle presents a long upper wick, which reflects strong speculative selling interest waiting for spikes to join the party. The technical indicators in the same chart have extended further lower within oversold territory, and are currently flat, consolidating rather than signaling an upcoming upward move. In the 4 hours chart, the price retreated from below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator extended its decline to fresh lows, and the RSI indicator resumed its decline, both in negative territory, supporting a continued decline for this Tuesday.
Support levels:28.50 27.70 27.10
Resistance levels: 29.90 30.60 31.40
Monday’s trading was limited by a bank holiday in the US and an empty calendar in Europe, which condemned majors to trade within limited intraday ranges. The week however, began with oil plummeting to fresh 12year lows, after economic sanctions against Iran were lifted over the weekend, leaving the market in the hands of risk sentiment. The main market focus is now on the release of Chinese GDP readings for the Q4 during the upcoming Asian session, which will likely set the tone for the rest of the day.In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair wavered around the 1.0900 level this Monday, and maintains quite a neutral stance, as the 4 hours chart shows that the 20,100 and 200 SMA’s converge in a 10pips range, whilst the technical indicators moved back and forth around their midlines ever since the day started. Pretty much, the EUR/USD pair has lacked directional strength ever since the upward rally triggered by the ECB earlier December, with a decline down to 1.0700 having been quickly corrected higher. Sellers are still surging around the 1.1000 figure, although 1.1060 is still the level to break to confirm a more sustainable bullish continuation, while the line in the sand towards the downside comes at 1.0800, where buying interest has been surging for most of these last two weeks.
Support levels:1.0845 1.0800 1.0760
Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0965 1.1000
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EUR/USD
Monday’s trading was limited by a bank holiday in the US and an empty calendar in Europe, which condemned majors to trade within limited intraday ranges. The week however, began with oil plummeting to fresh 12year lows, after economic sanctions against Iran were lifted over the weekend, leaving the market in the hands of risk sentiment. The main market focus is now on the release of Chinese GDP readings for the Q4 during the upcoming Asian session, which will likely set the tone for the rest of the day.In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair wavered around the 1.0900 level this Monday, and maintains quite a neutral stance, as the 4 hours chart shows that the 20,100 and 200 SMA’s converge in a 10pips range, whilst the technical indicators moved back and forth around their midlines ever since the day started. Pretty much, the EUR/USD pair has lacked directional strength ever since the upward rally triggered by the ECB earlier December, with a decline down to 1.0700 having been quickly corrected higher. Sellers are still surging around the 1.1000 figure, although 1.1060 is still the level to break to confirm a more sustainable bullish continuation, while the line in the sand towards the downside comes at 1.0800, where buying interest has been surging for most of these last two weeks.
Support levels:1.0845 1.0800 1.0760
Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0965 1.1000
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WTI CRUDE
Crude oil prices gapped lower at the weekly opening, with US sweet, light crude falling down to $28.35 a barrel, as economic sanctions against Iran were lifted on Sunday after the country complied with a nuclear deal. The news mean that the Islamic Republic can pump around half a million barrels a day, adding to the ongoing global glut. Brent crude fell as low as $27.67 a barrel, its lowest since 2003, before recovering to trade at $28.86. US WTI, bounced intraday up to 29.83, but fell below the 29.00 mark by the end of the day, retaining the bearish tone seen on previous updates. Technically the daily candle presents a long upper wick, which reflects strong speculative selling interest waiting for spikes to join the party. The technical indicators in the same chart have extended further lower within oversold territory, and are currently flat, consolidating rather than signaling an upcoming upward move. In the 4 hours chart, the price retreated from below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator extended its decline to fresh lows, and the RSI indicator resumed its decline, both in negative territory, supporting a continued decline for this Tuesday.
Support levels:28.50 27.70 27.10
Resistance levels: 29.90 30.60 31.40
WTI CRUDE
Crude oil prices gapped lower at the weekly opening, with US sweet, light crude falling down to $28.35 a barrel, as economic sanctions against Iran were lifted on Sunday after the country complied with a nuclear deal. The news mean that the Islamic Republic can pump around half a million barrels a day, adding to the ongoing global glut. Brent crude fell as low as $27.67 a barrel, its lowest since 2003, before recovering to trade at $28.86. US WTI, bounced intraday up to 29.83, but fell below the 29.00 mark by the end of the day, retaining the bearish tone seen on previous updates. Technically the daily candle presents a long upper wick, which reflects strong speculative selling interest waiting for spikes to join the party. The technical indicators in the same chart have extended further lower within oversold territory, and are currently flat, consolidating rather than signaling an upcoming upward move. In the 4 hours chart, the price retreated from below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator extended its decline to fresh lows, and the RSI indicator resumed its decline, both in negative territory, supporting a continued decline for this Tuesday.
Support levels:28.50 27.70 27.10
Resistance levels: 29.90 30.60 31.40
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A dull Monday saw the greenback easing against most of its major rivals, gaining however against commodity currencies, as oil slipped from its recent highs. News coming from Iraq that production in December has been as much as 4.13 million barrels a day in the country, spurred fears of a continued glut all over this 2016. The macroeconomic calendar was quite light, with German’s IFO survey showing that confidence remains sluggish in the country, as business confidence dropped to 107.3 from a revised 108.6 in December. In the US, the Dallas FED Manufacturing business index fell by 34.6, in January, following a 20.1 drop in December. With a bank holiday ahead in Australia, and no macroeconomic data scheduled in the region, majors during the upcoming session will likely continue depending on oil and risk sentiment.The EUR/USD pair closed in the green, but below the daily high established at 1.0844, once again holding in the base of its latest range, the 1.0780/1.0800 region, and the 50% retracement of the abovementioned rally. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is above a bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned lower, but remain above their midlines, indicating limited selling interest at current levels. In the 4 hours chart, the price was capped by a bearish 20 SMA, around 1.0840, while the technical indicators diverge from each other within bearish territory, giving no clear clues on what’s next for the pair. Some follow through above 1.0845, however, should favor a continuation rally up to the 1.0910/25 region, should the greenback remain under pressure.
Support levels:1.0780 1.0745 1.0710
Resistance levels: 1.0845 1.0890 1.0925
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Is Oil About to Hit $20?
Yes!!! is this the question every one is asking according to the recent survey that i went across regarding the oil prices i have found that the major reason for oil stocks to fall is the ongoing tusk between Iran and Saudi,and if the situation continues to be the same there would soon come a time when there would be no jobs left for the people.
Not only these the oil prices have lowered to such a value that there was a time when the oil price per barrel was $100 and now it has gone to $20.I hope the market is bullish for oil prices from the start of the year!!!
Crude oil was again in the eye of the storm, with WTI futures trading as low as $29.24 a barrel before rallying up to $32.39. Now hovering a few cents above the 31.00 level, on hopes OPEC and nonOPEC producers were inching closer to a deal to reduce output. The organism has reiterated its call for rival and member producers to cut supply, to tackle the ongoing oil glut. Ahead of US stockpiles reports, the daily chart for the commodity shows that the price is still unable to settle above a bearish 20 SMA that converges with the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily slide around 31.60, an immediate resistance. In the same chart, the technical indicators have turned higher within bearish territory, but remain below their previous highs, limiting chances of a stronger advance. In the 4 hours chart, the price is currently above a bullish 20 SMA, but below a bearish 100 SMA, while the Momentum indicator remains flat in neutral territory and the RSI heads slightly higher around 58, lacking enough strength to confirm further advances in the short term.
Support levels:30.70 30.10 29.50
Resistance levels:31.65 32.70 33.50
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EUR/USD
Markets have been pretty active ahead of the US FOMC statement, with the EUR/USD pair briefly advancing beyond the 1.0900 figure during the London session, but retreating ahead of the FED. As largely expected, the US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but acknowledged rising headwinds, as they say that they are closely monitoring global economic and financial developments. They also added that the jobs market improved further even as economy slowed late 2015, while the economy is expected to warrant only gradual rate rises. Overall, dovish, but pretty much what the market was waiting for, resulting in a limited dollar’s slide. Earlier today, German GFK consumer confidence beat expectations for February, printing 9.4 against the 9.3 expected, and matching previous month reading. In the US, new home sales beat estimates with a 10.8% December registering a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 units, inventories popped 2.6% in December to a sixyear high, while the median price fell 2.7% to leave a 4.3% y/y drop.Following FED’s announcement, the EUR/USD pair extend up to 1.0912, but was steadily rejected on spikes beyond the 1.0900 figure. The short term picture is bullish, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price holds above its moving averages whilst the technical indicators present strong upward slopes in positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the upside is also favored, with the price above its moving averages and the technical indicators gaining upward strength well above their midlines. Selling interest however, has contained rallies between 1.0920 and 1.0960 ever since the year started, meaning that the pair needs to steadily advance beyond it to offer a more constructive outlook.
Support levels:1.0845 1.0810 1.0770
Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0960 1.1000
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EUR/USD
The macroeconomic calendar was pretty busy this Thursday, both in Europe and the US, but majors continued following crude’s prices when it comes to set direction. The commodity soared on speculation oil producers were talking to reduce output, but the news was later denied. In the EU, the economic sentiment index fell for February, down to 105.0, below the expected 106.4 German inflation was up in January to 0.5% YoY, from 0.3% in December, on the back of higher food prices. On the month, German prices dropped by 0.8%, matching expectations. In the EU the economic sentiment index for February resulted at 105.0, below the expected 106.4. But the star of the day was indeed US Durable Goods Orders, much worsethanexpected as monthly basis it fell by 5.1%, while the US weekly unemployment claims came out at 278K for the week ending Jan 22. Crude prices were also in the eye of the storm, with WTI up to $34.80 a barrel before retreating towards $33.00 by the end of the day.The EUR/USD advanced for a fourth day in a row, and holds near a daily high set at 1.0957, where a daily descendant trend line coming from December high, finally halted the advance. The technical picture for the pair shows that it is at a brink of breaking higher, given that its ending the day above a Fibonacci level, and it’s also above its 100 DMA, closing above it for the first time since last October. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators hover near overbought levels, while the 20 SMA heads north around the 1.0900 figure, acting as an intraday support. In the 4 hours chart, the price has moved away from its moving averages, while the Momentum indicator presents a clear upward slope, supporting additional advances, particularly on an upward acceleration above 1.0960.
Support levels:1.0930 1.0900 1.0860
Resistance levels: 1.0960 1.1000 1.1045
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GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair closed the week flat around 1.4250, having set a high of 1.4412 earlier this week. The Pound however, was unable to hold to early week gains as the background weakness remains firm in place, as expectations of a UK rate hike have been steadily decreasing since late 2015. During this upcoming days, the BOE will have its monthly economic policy meeting, expected to remain as a nonevent, particularly after BOE Governor, Mark Carney, said that “now is not yet the time to raise interest rates.” The pair started the week with a positive tone, but gains where moderated by the negative sentiment towards the British currency that is set to extend this February. Anyway, and from a technical point of view, the downward potential has grown after the pair broke below a daily ascendant trend line, currently offering an immediate short term resistance at 1.4280. Should the pair complete a pullback to the level, but fail to extend above it, the downward potential will increase. In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators have bounced from oversold readings but remain within negative territory while the 20 SMA holds around 1.4310, capping the upside.
Support levels:1.4220 1.4180 1.4135
Resistance levels: 1.4280 1.4310 1.4360
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Oil prices fell on Monday, weighed by poor Chinese economic data and diminishing hopes of an agreement among OPEC and nonOPEC producers to cut output. Brent closed barely above $34.00 a barrel after briefly falling below the level, while WTI crude oil futures traded as low as $31.27 a barrel mid American session, bouncing roughly 50 cents by the end of the session. From a technical point of view, the price is currently trading around the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily decline, at 31.65, while the decline stalled a few cents above a horizontal 20 SMA in the daily chart. In the same chart, the technical indicators have turned south, with the RSI indicator already in bearish territory, all of which suggests further slides are likely. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart, shows that the technical indicators head sharply lower below their midlines, while the price is well below the 20 SMA. A break below the mentioned daily low should signal further declines towards the 30.00 figure.
Support levels:31.20 30.60 30.00
Resistance levels:32.30 32.90 33.70
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