UK Prime Minister Theresa May said the U.K. would begin the formal process of leaving the European Union by the end of March 2017 and the pound was hit hard. Both technically and fundamentally the pair is aligned now and we might see a retest of 1.2796. At this point bears are in full control.
Bearish channel, inner trend line, 38.2, L3 and multiple rejections at POC 1.2915-30 might reject the price in the case of another retracement and if the pair proceeds below 1.2845 we might see 1.2796. In order to stay bearish short term the GBP/USD must stay below 1.2950.
The GBP/JPY has been contained within a bearish channel and it is bouncing from the support caused mainly by news that DB (Deutsche Bank) is closer to finalizing their claims with US regulator. German equities are up, FTSE is also up but GBP is still down as suggested in my previous GBP study.
Technically POC (H4, the top of the channel, 50.0, historical sellers) comes within 131.20-35 zone but we should also pay attention to H3/EMA89/38.2 strong resistance around 131.00 round number. The rejection is targeting 130.15 and on H1 momentum or H1 close below 130.07, next target is 129.75.
The EUR/GBP is coming closer to important resistance and the price is forming reverse bearish divergence. As we can see on our daily chart, the price has formed bearish pinbar so it might reject off the zone and start retracement move. The possibility that the price might reject off 0.8855 zone towards H4 and H3 camarilla pivots gets even more pronounced if we see double top( or chart pattern close to double top). However if the price retraces to POC ( EMA89,61.8,bullish order block) within 0.8760-70 zone we might see another trend trading opportunity towards 0.8850 again. Have in mind that divergence is not confirmed until we see a double top-ish price. If it doesnt happen In the case the price proceeds further above the high, 0.8900 could be tested short term.
The USD/CAD broke through the symmetrical triangle and is heading towards H3 weekly pivot point. In the case the price stays above 1.3220 the pair should reach 1.3360 short term. The problem for bulls might be that the price is showing huge bearish divergence and in the case the price starts dropping, I would be watching for 1.3130-50 POC zone (L4, symmetrical triangle, historical buyers). Daily chart shows strong bullish candle too, so the scenarios are:
1.The price stays above H3 - 1.3220 and proceeds directly to 1.3300 and 1.3360.
2.Divergence plays out, price drops below 1.3220
3.Possible bounce within POC zone 1.3130-50 towards 1.3360.
If the price breaks below 1.3040 bullish scenario will be negated.
The EUR/JPY has broken the trend line in a strong uptrend and that is the signal for a possible retracement. As we could see on yesterday Session Recap the GBP/JPY has respected bearish analysis/setup and I expect similar to happen with EUR/JPY as it is connected to Yen carry trades. POC zone comes within 114.55-70 (H3, bullish order block) and it is in a close vicinity of 50.0. In the case of deeper retracement next POC zones comes within 114.10-25 (L3,WPP, previous double top). The price could be rejected towards 115.40 and if we see a 4 hour close above 115.50 way towards 116.30 should be open.
The GBP/USD is still sold on rallies as analysed in our previous analysis. Today First Brexit hearing begins in the UK High Court and there could be some whipsaw movements in the currency pair. From technical perspective POC zone comes within 1.2225-50 and the zone is a bit wider due to high ATR. The pair is contained within the equidistant channel and we can spot a confluence of channel top, H3 and bearish order block. If the pair retraces to the zone we might see a rejection towards 1.2150 and 1.2090. Only a 4h close below 1.2090 could tank the pair lower to sub 1.2000 level 1.1990 where we see a confluence of H5 and channel bottom. However if the pair gets above 1.2300 we might see a breakout towards 1.2355 that will be a sign of a deeper retracement in the GBP/USD pair.
The so popular “Dragon”, or GBP/JPY currency pair has really showed substantial movement within the bearish context. At this point we can spot running (still shaping up) rising wedge pattern. The running rising wedge can occur after a sharp retracement to the top of the wedge and then fall or as the wedge breakout below the low. LVZ pattern (red rectangle) marks low volatility zone and we might expect movement soon. If the pair starts a retracement watch for 127.00-15 zone (LVZ, Bearish order block, EMA89) rejection. If we don’t see any retracement a breakout below 126.35 might tank the pair down to 125.94. Only a 4h close below 125.94 might further weaken the pair towards 124.90.
The EUR/AUD is making a progressive M pattern characterized by a double top which in turn makes a POC zone (H3, DPP, trend line) 1.4340-50. The move has already happened so any retest could reject the price again (2nd rejection). Ideally inner trend line should hold for continuation of bearish move. Further continuation is seen below the inner trend line and if H1 candle closes below 1.4280. Close below would target 1.4245 and h4 close below 1.4245 should aim for 1.4185.
ECB is unclear on its QE with regards to tapering or the end of the programme. Equities tanked due to due to the uncertainty around further ECB steps.Initially we saw de-risking but stay tuned for greater clarity in the December ECB meeting. In the aftermath of ECB, Philly’s Fed went better than expected while the US initial jobless claims came in at 260K vs. 250k estimate.
Technically USDJPY might drop further from 2 POC zones. Watch the reaction around POC1 (H4, trend line, 61.8, EMA89) within 103.80-90. If the pair proceeds above 114.05 we might see POC2 getting hit within 104.08-20 zone (H5, 88.6, trend line). Both rejections should target 103.40 and 103.20 subsequently. Only h1 momentum or 4h close below 103.15 should open the door for 102.65 test.
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As we could see, the price respected the latest USD/JPY analysis rejecting from POC2 zone. However, with most eyes on USD data this week including, New Home Sales, Crude Oil data, Advance GDP data, we may see some additional USD volatility. BoJ will be watching their CPI data with close eyes; but I expect the bullish trend in Equities to continue with risk-on causing weakness in JPY and the general bullishness in USD to continue. We might see an uptrend until October 31. Remember Risk-on is JPY weakness into USD strength. Risk-On means investments are going long into Equities and Real Estate, in other words, traders long risky assets. When its Risk-On, JPY usually weakens. But what we have right now, is also USD bullishness.
Technically POC zone 103.70-80 (61.8, EMA89, trend line) could reject the price towards 104.10 and 104.50. We can also see a momentum trend line broken to the upside. Additionally 1h momentum or 4h close above 104.20 would further spur bullish momentum towards 104.50 and 105.00 eventually.
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GBP basket has been moving a lot since Brexit vote and mostly it has been sold into rallies as I suggested. Our latest Session Recap GBP/USD trade analysis and setup has provided us with more than 120 potential pips. As our correlation table suggests, the GBP/USD and GBP/AUD have a very strong positive correlation so they move in the same direction.
The GBP/AUD is technically very bearish and we can see it on our chart. Steep trend line, L3, bearish order block make POC zone 1.5880-95. Traders should watch for any short term rejection of POC. But I would suggest paying attention to POC2 because the first POC’s trend line is to steep so it could break. If trend line breaks we could see retracement to POC2 - 1.5960-90 (DPP, H3, EMA89, X-cross). Have in mind that POC zones are wider due to ATR of the pair that is much higher than any major cross, but the chance to capture even more pips is exponentially higher if we get in the right direction.
If you follow our Session Recap webinars you could have made more than 120 pips on previous GBP/USD analysis and setup. Today the Advance GDP data release has spiked the price to the upside giving us another potential chance to position for a new short trade setups. 1.2280-1.2305 is the zone where price should reject. POC zone (inner trend line, H3/H4, 88.6 fib, historical sellers) is the deeper retracement for the pair. If we see a 4h close above 1.2340 the price might turn in a short term uptrend on H1 and we would need to look for 4h time frame for further shorts. Targets are 1.2200 and 1.2141. 4h close or strong H1 momentum below 1.2140 targets 1.2080 as the first target again prior to 1.2000 flat.
The AUD/NZD has been moving in a steady uptrend and we can see 2 distinct trend lines that form the bullish trend. Trend lines are the part of 2 POC zones that might spike the price to the upside so traders should watch for it. POC (H3, WPP, EMA89, trend line) has also broken above the descending trend line marking another attempt for the bulls to spike the price to the upside. 1.0620-40 could reject the price further towards 1.0696 and 1.0765. 4h close above 1.0696 is needed for 1.0740-50 target. The price should stay ideally above 1.0580 for this to happen else we might see a deeper retracement in the trend. However if we see a deeper retracement, then pay attention to 1.0535-50 POC2 ( L3, trend line, 78.6) and ideally the price should stay above 1.0500. The target stays the same 1.0740-50 zone.
Recent suggestions in the media that Trump is closing the gap in the polls ahead of the US election is putting further pressure on the MXN. Trump’s plans are to do better trade deals with Mexico, and perhaps build a wall to stop illegal immigration in the USA. The USD is also losing some strength when looking at the USD Index, and this is primarily due to risk-off against the USD ahead of the elections. We can see de-risking now in most markets.
Technically, USD/MXN is in a strong uptrend followed by bullish order block far to the left that is connected to strong double top breakout (purple rectangle). The pair is very close to resistance, and we should be patient and wait for buy the dips scenario. Should USD/MXN proceed further up without any retracement pay attention to 4h close above 19.47 towards 19.68. If the pair breaks down the steep trendline it should signal a retracement towards POC 19.02-09 ( L3, DPP, 61.8, EMA89, double top breakout/bullish order block). Targets are 19.47 and 19.68.
As explained in yesterday’s article the main reason for USD weakness now is de-risking ahead of elections. Adding to lower than expected US ADP, we might assume that NFP too, will be lower then expected, but it remains to be seen tomorrow.
Technically the EUR/USD is rejecting from clear resistance marked with H4 camarilla and trend line. For bulls breakout can happen only above 1.1135 (4h close or h1 momentum break) towards 1.1170. Positional longs are located within POC 1.1040-50 (L4, trend line, EMA89, bullish order block) with 1.1020 as X cross ™ support. Break below 1.1020 would target 1.0960 and possible reversal.
USD strength was witnessed over the Asia session earlier today as the FBI cleared Clinton on the email issue. However, the GBPUSD has been bought on dips as the trend switched from intra week bearish to intraday bullish after UK court ruled against Brexit. However market is totally US election driven and will be even more volatile this whole week.
Technically POC zone (EMA89, trend line, L5, ATR bottom) 1.2380-1.2400 could reject the price towards 1.2456, 1.2485 and 1.2540 as long as the price is above bullish order block 1.2353 (purple rectangle). Ideally for a continuation look for POC rejection and close above descending trend line. If the price gets below 1.2350 sentiment will be bearish again and the pound could target 1.2300 and 1.2230 again.
They really [B][U]didn’t[/U][/B] “clear” her, at all, Josh. They simply stated that inspection of the recently-discovered emails had not altered their conclusion that a prosecution wouldn’t serve the public interest: that’s rather a long way from “clearing” anyone.
[B][U]No[/U][/B] court has “ruled against Brexit” at all (nor will any): the court simply determined that the issuing of a notice by the UK to the EU, under section 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, must be sanctioned by parliament rather than by the government.
Let’s hope your market analysis is a little more accurate than your news/political reporting, shall we?
The Trump’s victory on election reflected on the EUR/USD pair both during the elections and after London open. The pair spiked exactly as predicted in the latest EUR/USD analysis. As expected, the USD plummeted at the pinnacle of the vote count for the US Presidency, with the USD Index touching 95.83. We saw a movement of funds to safe haven currencies like the JPY and CHF, and surprisingly the EUR strengthened too. We saw the EURUSD hit 1.13 during those moments of the vote count, and yet we don’t know the overall impact on global trade as a result of Trump’s trade protectionism plans. We still need to wait and see if the funds leave the USD again.
At this time the pair made a railway pattern showing two momentum candles. According to high momentum (volatility) trading and analysis, traders could short the pair on a retrace towards POC1 and POC2. POC1 1.1100-1.1110 (L3, 38.2,trend line, bearish order block) is a shallow retracement but the EUR/USD could react there in short term bearish move. POC2 is a deeper retracement that’s in conjuction with high momentum price action. 1.1175-85 (61.8, monthly trend line, H3) is better retracement overall and overall both rejections could target 1.1025. 1.1025 is important level as the drop below would target 1.0990 then 1.0930 and 1.0865.
Following Trump’s historic Presidency election win, there was a sudden move for risk-off due to the uncertainties of his polices with safe-haven currencies like Yen, appreciating strongly. Nonetheless, once Trump in his acceptance speech concluded that the population must once again re-unite, he also signaled there would be more infrastructure spending and tax cuts, which boosted Equities instantly, and in particular risk-on barometer commodities like Copper and Iron ore. This caused immediate weakness in JPY.
Technically we have an over extension of the pair where today’s ATR exceeded average 7/14 by 60 pips and the day is still far from over. H5 has been broken without any retracement. This huge over-extension can lead the pair towards 133.25 and 134.60 if wee a 4h close above 133.25 (historical bullish order block). POC comes within 130.25-55 zone (38.2, H4, bullish order block) but when trend is so strong the chance is that we might not see retracement towards POC or it might be shallow. My opinion is that POC could be reached only on strong profit taking. If we don’t see any retracement watch for 4h close above 133.25 on way towards 134.60.
Although the targets have been hit after our previous GBP/JPY analysis, bullish sentiment still prevails as the dragon relentlessly flying towards 136.00 and further. Today’s early trading gave us more than 70 possible pips as shown in the live trading videos. There is still more room to the upside but we need to see if the pair will retrace or it will proceed without any retracement. The range (ATR) of GBP/JPY is huge so pay attention to 135.15, 134.60 and 133.10-25 bounce. June trend line that is sitting at 135.15 has been broken and the pair needs to have a 4h close to possibly proceed to 136.00. However 138.38 is H4 camarilla weekly pivot so in case of strong risk on and good GDP CPI data, it can hit it at the end of the week. Retracement towards 134.60 zone could provide buying opportunities in the form of retest trade so watch any reaction within the 134.60 zone. Strong POC comes within 133.10-25 zone too (bullish order block, EMA89, historical buyers) and pair should bounce towards above mentioned targets.
