USD/CAD Bullish but Watch for Possible Bearish SHS Pattern
The USD/CAD spiked above the inner trend line with a strong marubozu candle making the POC zone strong enough on a possible retest. 1.3110-30 (H4, trend line, EMA89, ATR pivot) hasn’t been re-tested yet on 4h time frame and subsequent retest could spike the price even more higher, towards 1.3220 and 1.3290. 1.3220 is strong resistance and only 4h close above, might spike the price towards 1.3290 otherwise it might give us short term bearish opportunities. If that happens, the USD/CAD will form bearish SHS pattern (head and shoulders) and we could see a rejection towards 1.3130 zone again. The pair is bullish until 1.2960 breaks to the downside. If that happens 1.2900 and 1.2800 will be exposed. The USD/CAD analysis is valid till the rest of the week. so traders should focus now on either POC rejection or a counter trade opportunities.
GBP/USD Master Candle Marks Trend Continuation
As I showed on Session Recap webinar, the GBP/USD has been in a steady uptrend that was almost interrupted by a stop grabber candle that was initiated after bad GBP/USD data yesterday. At this time we can see a Master Candle (MC) formed and a breakout above 1.2518 should spike the price towards 1.2560 and eventually 1.2600 zone. If a MC breaks lower below 1.2474 then it should retrace to POC zone 1.2435-50 where we might see a bounce towards 1.2515 and above. At this point the GBP/USD is still bullish and watch for a possible trend continuation.
EUR/JPY Trapped in a Consolidation Pattern
The EUR/JPY has been consolidating close to POC zone with M emerging pattern shaping up. The POC 121.15-30 (trend line, ATR pivot, 78.6, order block) is also very close to H4 camarilla resistance and rejections from the zone could confirm M pattern. Rejections from POC targets 120.75 and a break of 120.70 targets 120.54, 120.15 and 119.90. If the price spikes above 121.30 we might see 121.65 that is the top of ATR projection. As long as the EUR/JPY is capped below 121.65, chance for a bearish continuations are good.
CAD/JPY Downtrend Progressing Towards L4
As this week is a bit light with fundamental data and we have US holiday today, it is time to shift our attention towards crosses that are trending and have the scope to move during late New York/Tokyo session later. The CAD/JPY shows a bearish zigzag that might be targeting L3 and L4 camarilla levels. At this point the price is below historical low of a previous Master Candle and as long as it stays below it, continuation towards L3/L4 could happen without a retracement to POC. however a break above previous master candle low might trigger a retracement towards POC 86.60-75 (H4, ATR Pivot, 88.6, inner trend line). Rejection and continuation should target 85.90 and 85.65.
GBP/JPY is at a Crossroads
The GBP/JPY is standing at a crossroads there and we might see either a continuation down or a spike. The POC zone(H4, 50.0, trend line, ATR pivot) to watch for is 140.35-47, and the spike above 140.47 might target 140.95 and 141.14. in the case of rejection from POC, levels to watch for are 139.95 and 139.50. At this point this looks like a consolidation before possible breakout in either direction.
EUR/USD Five 0 Pattern Marks Two Way Trading
The main focus of this week is on mostly on NFP and EUR Bid Rate decision. With the market expectation of 3 rate hikes this year by the Fed, all eyes will be on this week’s NFP numbers. The key test for the Fed is to ensure that inflation is improving and full employment is maintained. However, if NFP is bulging above 200k, then it may give incentive to hike sooner rather than later. ECB is not expected to change the rate at this point.
Technically, the EUR/USD is in downtrend but due to Yellen’s comments about possible March rate hike, investors turned to profit taking where we saw the EUR/USD spiking up on Friday profit taking. Traders need to watch possible spikes from POC buy zone 1.0555-64 ( L4, EMA 89, 5-0) and possible sell within 1.0660-80 zone (H3, ATR top, 88.6) where we can also see historical sellers. I am more inclined to sell on rallies due to higher time frame trends and EU problems with France, Italy and Netherlands but for intraday swings, two way trading is possible. Targets are camarilla pivots between these two POC zones.
NZD/USD Equidistant Channel in a Strong Downtrend
The NZD/USD has been dropping consistently within the Equidistant channel versus its counterpart USD mainly due to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps its rate low. Additionally, the dairy prices fell in the overnight auction, adding to overall NZD weakness. The POC zone is 0.6935-50 (H4, DPP, equidistant channel top, ATR top) and we might expect new rejection if the price gets within the zone. 1h momentum or 4h close below 0.6890 marks the continuation towards 0.6858 and 0.6840. The ATR has been low but consistent so the NZD could be also suitable for traders who are afraid to trade volatile pairs.
EUR/USD Bullish Switch on Short Term Trend
The US is on track for 3 hikes this year, and a few more in following years, but there were mentions during previous week that the ECB too may shift to normalising rates also in due time, so at this point we see a possible change in direction on this pair. The POC zone 1.0725-40 (L3, trend line, EMA 89, ATR pivot 23.6) and if 1.0670 stays strong we might see 1.0800 and 1.0840. The uptrend has been established by strong momentum candle (highlighted in green) and it seems we might see a continuation. Watch for any rejections from POC and break of 1.0780 if it happens short term.
GBP/USD Bullish Cup With Handle Formation
The GBP/USD has formed a cup with handle pattern on H1 timeframe, suggesting further upside. W H4 camarilla is acting as support as the price broke above it, and it forms a clear handle at the brim of a cup. 1.2480 might spike the price to the upside, targeting D H3 H4 and H5 levels respectively, -1.2516, 1.2538, and 1.2580. If the price breaks below the handle, look for possible POC (D L3, double bottom, ATR pivot) 1.2425-45 rejection.
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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
W H4 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Weekly Interim Resistance)
USD/CAD ABCD Pattern Marks the Support
The rate cut wasn’t on the table yesterday as economic data in Canada has improved. Slightly hawkish stance of BOC’s chief Poloc reflected on the USD/CAD, sending the dollar down straight to W L5 support. At this point, we see an ABCD pattern at D L3 support, so the break of 1.3250 could spur a correction towards 1.3300 where we see a bearish POC (ATR top, EMA89, bearish order block, W L4) within 1.3300-1.3320. Rejections from POC target 1.3220 and 1.3190.
Keep in mind that if 1.3250 is not broken to the upside, we might see a straight drop below 1.3218 for 1.3190 and 1.3145 final D L5 target.
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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
W L5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
EUR/JPY Bearish Zig Zag Within Equidistant Channel
Bank holidays are usually days when low volatility is expected. Yen pairs tend to move with equities, especially Nikkei, so we have seen some volatility in the Yen during the Asia session. The POC for EUR/JPY comes within 115.75-95 (EQ channel top, ATR high, W H3, EMA89) and should reject the price. Targets are 114.55 and 113.90. If we don’t see any retracement in the pair, a breakout below W L3 114.35 should also aim for 113.90, which is D L5 – the strongest intraday support.
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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
W L5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
GBP/USD Bullish Pennant Targeting Higher Levels
The GBP/USD spiked heavily after UK PM Theresa May called for snap UK elections on June 8. UK PM May stated that these elections might further instill the stability in UK and would provide stability for longer period. Traders favored UK PM’s reasoning and the GBP flew off above weekly resistance levels.
The pair has formed a bullish pennant that might provide a further breakout to the upside above 1.2855 targeting 1.2907 and 1.2946. In case of retracement, technically the POC comes within 1.2735-60 (ATR low, W H5, D H3) and rejection should target 1.2835 and 1.2855 with the possible breakout as mentioned above.
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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
W H5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
USD/CAD Bullish Marubozu on Daily Timeframe
The USD/CAD has formed a bullish marubozu (strong momentum candle) on daily timeframe (see the mini daily chart) which marks an uptrend. Retracement towards POC might start at the break of trendline (red). If the price gets to POC (38.2, ATR low, D L4, EMA89) the POC zone should spike the price further up towards D H3 at 1.3513 and D H4/ATR High at 1.3540. Only above 1.3545 we could see 1.3600.
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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)
D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)
D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)
D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)
W H5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
GBP/JPY Strong Bullish Zig Zag Pattern
The GBP/JPY has been bought on dips after Macron won the first round of French elections. Our Session Recap setup went as expected and now we see a continuation. Equities went bullish and GBP/JPY followed, reaching 143.00 zone. At this point we see a huge MACD divergence which might drop the pair towards POC zone. POC 141.60-90 (D L3, ATR low, trend line, 50.0) could spike the price towards 142.50, 143.00 and 143.80. If we don’t see an entry within POC zone watch for 4h close above 143.30. That should also be a sign for continuation towards above mentioned targets.
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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
PRE-ECB Analysis: EUR/USD Breakouts Possible
The European Central Bank is set to keep its ultra-easy policy stance firmly in place this Thursday afternoon (11:30 AM GMT) but may acknowledge better growth prospects, setting the stage for a small signal as early as June about an eventual reduction of stimulus. Volatility on EUR/USD could be expected.
Technically the EUR/USD 4h chart shows bullish momentum but anything can happen during the ECB conference. Yesterday we had a successful live EUR/USD entry on Wednesday’s Live webinar that made more than 40 pips as of now. The break of 1.0950 should retest 1.0965 and possibly 1.0990-1.1020. However, the break of 1.0820 could close the retail gap around 1.0777 level. Be careful with risk allocation and using of VPS tool is advised.
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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
W H5 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)
M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)
M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
EUR/USD Still Supported Above Retail Gap
The EUR/USD is still supported above the retail gap which showed straight after Macron won the first round vs Le Pen. Friday is getting close , so we might see profit taking due to Sunday’s final round of presidential elections. 1.0860-45 is POC zone for possible buy trades as the EUR/USD might spike from the zone (W L3, ATR pivot, historical buyers) targeting 1.0930 and 1.0965. A drop below 1.0820 could target 1.0775 and further momentum could also close the retail gap at 1.0730.
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W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
W H5 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)
M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)
M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)
POC- Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
EUR/USD 1.0930-1.0950 is Point Of Confluence
The expected win of newly elected president Emmanuel Macron seem to be priced in the market after a successful rally as we shown in the previous EUR/USD analysis. At this point the pair is heading towards the POC zone 1.0930-50 where we could see a possible bounce. As the ATR of EUR/USD is low - only 77 pips, levels to watch for are 1.0990 and 1.1020. However the loss of 1.0930 is a possible signal for a deeper retracement towards 1.0870. Retail gap could only be closed if the pair broke below 1.0820.
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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
GBP/USD Super Thursday Event: Running Flat Top Ascending Pattern
The main focus today is BOE interest rate decision with monetary policy summary. This is called Super Thursday event and I expect it to be very volatile. The event is scheduled for 11 AM GMT. The BOE will also present its quarterly inflation report which has been updated. We might see two-way price movement.
The pattern that is formed is called - running flat top ascending triangle. It is a running pattern because the apex of the triangle has not been established yet. This suggest two way price movement, that could be also fueled with Balance of Trade date today. There are two zones traders should focus on at this point.1.2995 is a strong resistance and a break of 1.2995 (D H5, ATR high) may target 1.3025 to 1.3050 - Weekly H3 camarilla pivot and round number resistance. Break of lower zone (D L3, ATR pivot) 1.2916 might target even 1.2825 level - Weekly L5 camarilla. I suggest you use VPS tool in the case you want to trade GBP/USD today.
USD/JPY Daily Confluence At Support
The USD/JPY is currently supported at POC zone 113.40-60 (Trend line, D L3, Order block, EMA89) and we might see a spike towards D L3 - 114.10. The pair is in uptrend on intraday (H1) and intra week (H4) charts. 1h or 4h candle close above 114.10 should provide additional strength in this pair, targeting 114.35 (ATR high) and 114.75 (D L5) if we see additional volatility. W H3 and ATR low should hold (113.15) if bulls want to remain in control. Bears would only have control below D L5 (112.90). If that happens during next days we might expect 112.15 as the target.
Adding to that we have US Inflation data today so the combination of US data and profit taking could be volatile for this pair.
GBP/NZD Uptrend Intact
The GBP/NZD has almost closed the retail gap with a slow grind towards D L3 that stands in a confluence with the gap. At this point the price is getting close to the POC zone 1.8685-1.8705 (D L3, Retail gap close, 78.6, bullish order blocks, ATR pivot). As long as 1.8608 support holds we might see a rejection towards 1.8870 ATR/D H4 confluence. Only above 1.8880 the price might go for a full retest of 1.8969.
