AUDUSD Long-Term Breakout (July 17, 2017)
AUDUSD had been trading inside an ascending triangle on its long-term time frame and has just broken past the resistance at the .7750 minor psychological mark. This signals that the pair is in for an uptrend, which might last by at least 900 pips or the same height as the triangle formation.
The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA on the weekly chart, though, so the path of least resistance is still to the downside. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal a potential upside crossover.
Stochastic is pointing up but is already dipping into the overbought zone to indicate weakening bullish pressure. Once the oscillator turns lower, bears could regain control and push for a pullback to the broken resistance. Stronger bearish momentum could put the pair back inside the triangle.
US economic data turned out weaker than expected on Friday, casting doubts again on another Fed interest rate hike in September or December. Headline CPI posted a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick while the core CPI had a meager 0.1% gain instead of the estimated 0.2% increase. Headline and core retail sales were down 0.2% while preliminary UoM consumer sentiment also fell short of estimates.
There were no major reports out of Australian then while today has top-tier data from its main trade partner China. GDP is projected to dip from 6.9% to 6.8% while industrial production could hold steady at 6.5%. Retail sales and fixed asset investment could also show small dips. The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes are lined up on Tuesday
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
AUDUSD Bullish Channel (July 18, 2017)
AUDUSD has been trending higher and is moving inside a bullish channel formation on its 4-hour chart. Price is bouncing off the resistance and could be due for a pullback from here. Stochastic is turning lower from the overbought zone to show that buyers are taking a break and allowing sellers to take over.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the channel support around the .7650 minor psychological level. The 100 SMA is also close to the bottom of the channel, adding to its strength as support. This short-term SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to show that the path of least resistance is still to the upside.
Economic data from China, Australia’s main trade partner, turned out mostly stronger than expected. The economy grew by 6.9% in Q2 versus expectations of a dip to 6.8%. Retail sales and industrial production also ticked higher, reflecting strong internal demand and a likely boost to Australia’s commodity exports.
The RBA will release its monetary policy meeting minutes today and give more insight as to why they decided to keep policy unchanged and when they might consider hiking rates. In the US, economic reports have been mostly weaker than expected lately, particularly when it comes to CPI and retail sales.
Australia will release its jobs report later in the week and likely report a slower increase in hiring. There’s not much in the way of top-tier data from the US this week but traders could start pricing in less upbeat remarks for the FOMC meeting next week.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
GBPJPY Short-Term Reversal (July 19, 2017)
GBPJPY has failed in its last two attempts to break past the 147.50 minor psychological resistance, creating a double top reversal formation. Price is currently testing the neckline at 145.50 and could be due for at least 200 pips in losses if its breaks.
The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Also, the 100 SMA is holding as dynamic support for now and a bounce could take price back up to the tops or higher. Stochastic looks ready to pull up to indicate a pickup in buying pressure but it has room to go lower before hitting oversold conditions.
Economic data from the UK turned out weaker than expected and BOE Governor Carney confirmed that this was in line with BOE estimates. Headline CPI is down from 2.9% to 2.6% while core CPI dropped from 2.6% to 2.4%, lessening pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy.
The BOJ has its monetary policy decision lined up on Thursday’s Asian trading session and many are expecting the Japanese central bank to sound dovish. However, recent reports have shown some improvements and there’s also a chance that policymakers could sound more neutral.
UK retail sales are also due later on this week and a drop is eyed, owing to weak wage inflation and rising price levels. However, analysts project that a 0.4% rebound over the earlier 1.2% slump could be in the cards.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
GBPUSD Rising Wedge (July 20, 2017)
GBPUSD has formed higher lows and slightly higher highs, creating a rising wedge pattern visible on its daily chart. Price is currently testing the resistance and might be due for a move back to support soon. Stochastic looks ready to head south from the overbought zone so selling pressure could pick up soon.
However, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is still to the upside. This suggests that the wedge support at the 1.2750-1.2800 levels could keep losses in check or that the pair could attempt to break past the resistance at 1.3100.
UK economic data has been weaker than expected so far this week, with headline and core CPI reflecting much weaker inflationary pressures. This reduces the need for the BOE to hike interest rates to keep price levels in check.
The retail sales report is due next and another decline could reinforce the view that spending and growth are taking hits from rising inflation. Consumer spending already fell 1.2% in May and another drop could mean more losses for the pound, but analysts are expecting to see a 0.4% rebound.
As for the US dollar, delays in the Trump administration’s fiscal reform plans are dampening demand for the currency. After all, this could push tax cuts much later into next year and limit growth prospects, lessening the need for the Fed to hike as they start their balance sheet runoff.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURAUD Channel Retracement (July 21, 2017)
EURAUD is trending lower and moving inside a descending channel connecting the highs and lows of price action since the latter part of May. Price is bouncing off the channel support and could be due for a pullback to resistance. Stochastic is moving up to show that buyers are in control of price action but the oscillator is already dipping into the overbought region to signal potential rally exhaustion.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level is closest to the channel resistance around the 1.4850 minor psychological mark. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA for now so the path of least resistance is still to the upside, but a new crossover seems likely and this might draw more sellers to the market.
If any of the Fib levels hold as resistance, price could make another test of the channel lows at 1.4400. On the other hand, sustained buying pressure could spur a break past the channel resistance and start a reversal for EURAUD.
The ECB decided to keep monetary policy unchanged as expected while reiterating that tapering has not been discussed yet. During the presser, Draghi repeated that inflation is not quite up to the level that they’d like to see just yet before trimming asset purchases. He did say that they’re seeing broadening signs of growth but that these have yet to translate to stronger price pressures.
Meanwhile, the Aussie took some hits upon seeing slightly weaker than expected jobs data. The economy added 14K jobs in June versus the projected 14.4K figure and the previous reading was downgraded from 42K to 38K. The jobless rate was unchanged at 5.6%. A couple of RBA policymakers are set to give testimonies today and jawboning remarks are expected.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USDCAD Descending Channel (July 24, 2017)
USDCAD keeps trending lower and is moving inside a descending channel pattern on its 1-hour time frame. Price is currently testing support near the 1.2550 minor psychological level and could be due for a bounce back to the resistance near 1.2600.
Stochastic is heading down to show that there’s still some selling pressure left. If sellers are strong enough, they could push for a break of the channel support, triggering a steeper selloff for USDCAD.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside, which means that the downtrend is more likely to carry on than to reverse.
Economic data from Canada came in mostly in line with expectations last Friday, except for the core retail sales figure which showed a 0.1% dip instead of the estimated flat reading. Headline retail sales beat expectations with a 0.6% gain, twice as much as the projected 0.3% uptick.
Dollar demand remains weak as traders are starting to price in less hawkish expectations from the FOMC statement this week. Although the minutes of their earlier meeting reflected confidence in their outlook, the latest batch of reports and developments could cloud their optimism.
Traders are also hoping to get more details on the balance sheet runoff and confirmation that it would start later this year could weaken expectations of another interest rate hike in September. Discussions among OPEC and non-OPEC leaders are reportedly scheduled within the day and this could impact Loonie price action as well.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURUSD Channel Correction (July 25, 2017)
EURUSD has been trending higher after breaking past a long-term resistance level last week. Price is trading inside an ascending channel visible on its 1-hour time frame and is currently bouncing off the resistance.
This could spur a correction to the channel support at the 1.1550 minor psychological level, which is close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the latest swing low and high. This also coincides with the 200 SMA dynamic support.
Speaking of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame so the path of least resistance is to the upside. The 100 SMA is near the 38.2% Fib and mid-channel area of interest, which might also be potential support in a shallow correction. Stochastic has been on the move down but seems to be pulling up early.
Economic data from the euro zone was not so impressive at the start of the week. Flash manufacturing and services PMI readings from the top economies were mostly below expectations, except for the French manufacturing PMI, leading many to doubt that the ECB can taper as early as September.
The German Ifo business climate index is lined up today and a dip from 115.1 to 114.9 is expected. Another weaker than expected read could mean more losses for the shared currency as tapering expectations weaken again. As for the dollar, relatively upbeat PMI readings renewed some support ahead of the FOMC decision later this week.
The flash manufacturing PMI is up from 52.0 to 53.2, higher than the forecast at 52.3, while the services PMI held steady from an upgraded 54.2 figure. Existing home sales printed a dip to 5.52M. The CB consumer confidence index is due today and a fall from 118.9 to 116.5 is expected.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USDJPY Triangle Support (July 26, 2017)
USDJPY has formed lower highs and higher lows on its 4-hour time frame, trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern. Price is currently testing support and could be due for a bounce back to resistance.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In addition, stochastic is pointing up to indicate that bullish momentum is in play. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal a potential downward crossover while the oscillator is nearing overbought levels.
If bearish pressure kicks in, USDJPY could test the triangle support at 111.50 again or attempt to break lower. The chart pattern is approximately 500 pips tall so the resulting breakout could be of the same size.
The main event risk for this pair is the FOMC decision as traders are waiting to find out if the Fed would maintain its hawkish bias or not. Recall that CPI and retail sales have been weaker than expected but there’s a good chance that policymakers might insist that these are due to temporary factors.
Reiterating that they are prepared to hike rates one more time before the year ends and signaling that they could start balance sheet unwinding in September could spur stronger dollar demand. On the other hand, a shift in tone to a more cautious one could trigger losses.
As for Japan, data on household spending and inflation due on Friday could also lead to big yen moves since this could determine whether the BOJ would stick to its dovish stance or not.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USDCAD Short-Term Channel (July 27, 2017)
USDCAD continues to trend lower and is moving inside a descending channel visible on the 1-hour time frame. Price is currently testing support and could be due for a pullback to the resistance once more.
Stochastic is pulling up from the oversold area to suggest that profit-taking off the 1.2450 area might take place. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In addition, the 100 SMA lines up with the channel resistance to add to its strength as a ceiling.
The FOMC decided to keep interest rates on hold at 1.00-1.25% as expected after hiking in June. They also signaled that balance sheet unwinding could begin “relatively soon” and that they would stick to reinvesting for now.
What drew dollar bears in was the Fed’s new assessment that overall inflation has declined, compared to their previous statement that it “declined recently” and is “somewhat” below 2%. Still, the Fed noted that hiring has been solid and that household spending and business investment continue to expand.
As for the Canadian dollar, it got another strong boost from an uptick in crude oil. The EIA reported a larger than expected draw of 7.2 million barrels versus the projected reduction of 3.3 million barrels. US durable goods orders data is due next and there are no major reports lined up from Canada.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
AUDNZD Resistance Turned Support (July 28, 2017)
AUDNZD recently broke past the resistance at the 1.0550 minor psychological level then zoomed up to the 1.0800 levels before pulling back. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high on the 4-hour time frame shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the broken resistance.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Also, the gap between the moving averages is widening to indicate strengthening bullish pressure. The 100 SMA appears to be holding as dynamic support as well while the 200 SMA is closer to the area of interest.
Stochastic is pointing down to signal that there may be some selling pressure left, but the oscillator is also closing in on the oversold level to indicate potential profit-taking If that happens, buyers could push price back up to the swing high.
Economic data from Australia has not been so upbeat this week, though, as the headline CPI printed a lower than expected 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.4% gain. Import prices also fell short of consensus for the quarter and hinted of lower price pressures down the line.
Australia just reported a lower than expected quarterly PPI reading of 0.5% versus the projected 0.6% increase, adding to the narrative that inflation could stay subdued and prevent the RBA from tightening anytime soon.
There have been no major reports from New Zealand, leaving the Kiwi at the mercy of market sentiment. This higher-yielding currency usually draws support during risk-on days and tumbles when risk aversion is present.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURCAD Descending Channel (July 31, 2017)
EURCAD has been trending lower, moving inside a descending channel on its 4-hour chart. Price has bounced off support and has made its way towards resistance at the 1.4650 minor psychological level, which might continue to keep gains in check.
If so, another test of support at the 1.4300 major psychological level could take place. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the selloff is more likely to continue than to reverse.
The moving averages appear to be holding as dynamic resistance areas as they line up with the top of the channel. Stochastic is on its way down also, indicating that sellers are in control of price action.
Euro zone data came in mixed on Friday as German and French preliminary CPI beat expectations while French consumer spending fell short. Canada’s GDP also beat expectations with a 0.6% gain versus the projected 0.2% expansion.
Up ahead, German retail sales and the region’s flash CPI readings are due. Stronger than expected figures would assure investors that spending remains supported and that inflation could convince the ECB to move on with tapering asset purchases sooner than initially expected.
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Final manufacturing and services PMIs from the top euro zone economies are lined up for the rest of the week while Canada will release its jobs report on Friday. Analysts are expecting to see a 14.6K increase in hiring.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
GBPUSD Countertrend Play (Aug 01, 2017)
GBPUSD has been trending higher and moving inside an ascending channel on its daily time frame. Price is making its way to the top of the channel and could be due for a bounce off the 1.3300 major psychological mark. Stochastic is nearing the overbought zone and turning lower could draw sellers back in.
However, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the uptrend is more likely to continue than to reverse. Also, the 100 SMA lines up with the bottom of the channel, adding to its strength as support if price pulls back.
UK net lending to individuals data turned out stronger than expected at 5.6 billion GBP versus the projected fall to 4.9 billion GBP. Mortgage approvals came in line with expectations at 65K. Next up, the UK will print its Nationwide HPI and manufacturing PMI, which is projected to tick back up from 54.3 to 54.4.
The US dollar is being dragged lower by tensions with North Korea and inside the White House itself. The hermit nation recently conducted a successful ICBM test that could potentially hit most of the United States, according to a couple of intelligence officials. Meanwhile, Trump just fired his communications director Scaramucci after 10 days in office. Chicago PMI also turned out weaker than expected with a steep fall to 58.9.
US core PCE price index and personal spending and income data are due next. Analysts are expecting the inflation figure to hold steady at 0.1% while personal spending might also show a meager 0.1% uptick. Personal income could post another 0.4% gain.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USDCAD Short-Term Reversal (Aug 02, 2017)
USDCAD failed in its last two attempts to break below the 1.2400 area, creating a double bottom formation on its 1-hour time frame. Price has yet to break past the neckline at 1.2575 before confirming the potential reversal.
The chart pattern is around 175 pips tall so the resulting rally could be of the same size. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside for now, but the gap is narrowing to signal that an upward crossover might take place soon.
Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions, which suggests that buyers might want to take a break and let sellers take over. In that case, USDCAD could head back down to form another bottom near 1.2400. RSI is still pointing up so there’s some buying pressure left.
Economic data from the US turned out mostly in line with estimates. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 57.8 to 56.3, slightly weaker than the 56.4 consensus. Most of the components chalked up declines while the prices component surged from 55 to 62.
The API report printed a surprise buildup in crude oil stockpiles instead of the projected draw, leading some to speculate that oversupply troubles may be back and that the EIA might report an increase in inventory as well. Underlying inflation figures from Canada have been weaker than expected while the manufacturing PMI showed a faster pace of industry growth.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
GBPNZD Double Bottom (Aug 03, 2017)
GBPNZD bounced a couple of times off the 1.7400 level, creating a double bottom pattern with a neckline at the 1.7850 minor psychological level. Price has yet to break past the resistance before confirming that a longer-term uptrend is in order.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The 100 SMA is close to the neckline, adding to its strength as resistance. If it holds, another move towards the bottoms could take place.
Stochastic is moving up to show that there’s some bullish momentum in play, possibly enough to trigger a neckline breakout. However, the oscillator is also nearing overbought levels so buyers might want to pause soon and let sellers take over.
The BOE decision is the main event risk for the day as traders are waiting to find out if the central bank can maintain its hawkish views from the previous announcement. At that time, three policymakers voted for a hike on stronger inflationary pressures but the latest batch of CPI readings have disappointed.
A less hawkish bias could push the pound lower against its peers while an actual rate hike might be needed to keep the pound afloat. Other reports have indicated mixed results, with hiring staying strong and retail sales trying to hold steady. Business PMI readings have also reflected some resilience.
As for the Kiwi, the weaker than expected quarterly jobs report released earlier this week could keep the currency on the back foot. Employment fell by 0.2% instead of rising by 0.7% while the previous quarter’s gain was downgraded to 1.1%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
AUDJPY Correction Levels (Aug 04, 2017)
AUDJPY staged a strong rally recently but appears to be topping out at the 89.00 area. A correction could be due before this pair heads any further north, and applying the Fibonacci tool on the latest swing low and high on the daily time frame shows that the 23.6% level lines up with a former resistance.
If this area of interest holds as support, price could make another attempt at breaking past the 89.00 to 90.00 ceiling and establishing a stronger climb. On the other hand, a larger pullback could still find support at the 38.2% Fib near 86.50 or until the 61.8% Fib at 85.00.
The 100 SMA crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, these moving averages could still hold as dynamic support since they line up with the lowest Fib. Stochastic is heading down but is nearing oversold levels to signal that buyers could return to the game.
The RBA refrained from making any policy changes in their statement this week while maintaining their neutral bias. Data has been somewhat weaker than expected, though, particularly when it comes to trade activity so the central bank might sit on its hands for much longer.
As for the yen, the BOJ also kept its policy unchanged, contrary to some expectations that they could be more dovish. This allowed the yen to hold on to its gains and even take some risk-off flows away from the US dollar. Earlier today, the Japanese average cash earnings figure missed expectations and posted a 0.4% drop.
Up ahead, the NFP report could impact yen pairs since US bond yields tend to influence demand for the lower-yielding Japanese currency. A stronger than expected result could fuel demand for the dollar and lead to yen weakness while downbeat data could support the yen instead of the dollar.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
NZDJPY Long-Term Ceiling (August, 7, 2017)
NZDJPY is currently bouncing off the long-term range resistance at the 83.00 major psychological level, possibly putting it back on track towards testing support around 73.00 or at the mid-range area of interest around 78.00.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. Stochastic is also heading south to signal that selling pressure is still in play. However, the oscillator is already dipping into the oversold region to signal that Kiwi bears are tired and might let buyers take over.
The main event risk for this setup is this week’s RBNZ decision during which the central bank would likely keep interest rates on hold. Traders are also expecting a few dovish remarks since the latest batch of reports from New Zealand signaled a fall in dairy prices and overall inflation.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen could be able to hold on to its gains as the BOJ didn’t sound as dovish as expected in their latest policy decision. In addition, potential dollar weakness on subdued tightening expectations could support the yen.
Keep in mind, however, that the latest NFP report turned out stronger than expected and provided some support for US bond yields, thereby weakening demand for the lower-yielding yen. US CPI readings are due later on this week and another batch of strong figures could continue to undermine yen strength.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USDCHF Descending Channel (Aug 08, 2017)
USDCHF has been trending lower on its short-term time frames, with price moving inside an ascending channel that’s been holding since November last year. Price has bounced off support and is on its way to test the resistance.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the channel resistance at .9800 while the 61.8% level coincides with a broken support zone near .9900. The 100 SMA also lines up with the top of the channel, adding to its strength as a ceiling.
This short-term moving average is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. Stochastic is heading up to the overbought level but hasn’t crossed down yet so there may still be some buying pressure left. If the resistance holds, USDCHF could make another test of the .9500 swing low.
Strong US equity performance allowed the dollar to hold on to its gains, particularly against the Swiss franc which is sensitive to potential SNB intervention. US consumer credit dipped, however, to signal weaker financial confidence.
SNB foreign currency reserves grew from 694 billion CHF to 714 billion CHF to signal that the central bank might be expanding its forex holdings to keep the franc weak. Swiss CPI was down 0.3% as expected.
The Swiss jobless rate is up for release today but no change from the 3.2% reading is eyed. As for the US, the NFIB small business index is due, along with the JOLTS job openings data and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
AUDNZD Ascending Channel (Aug 09, 2017)
AUDNZD made higher highs and higher lows, moving inside an ascending channel on its 1-hour time frame. Price just bounced off the resistance and looks ready for another test of support.
Using the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the channel support around 1.0725 and a former resistance level. This also coincides with the 100 SMA dynamic support.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Stochastic is still turning lower to indicate that sellers are on top of their game but the oscillator is dipping into the oversold region to signal a return in bullish pressure.
Australia reported a 1.2% drop in its Westpac consumer sentiment index after previously rising by 0.4%. Chinese CPI also dipped from 1.5% to 1.4% instead of holding steady, signaling weaker inflation pressures down the line.
New Zealand is waiting for the RBNZ decision but this is expected to be downbeat as well. Quarterly inflation and employment have been disappointing so the central bank might blame the Kiwi’s appreciation for this, taking the opportunity to talk down the currency.
Earlier in the week, New Zealand reported a drop from 2.1% to 2.2% in quarterly inflation expectations while Australia has its MI inflation expectations report due in tomorrow’s Asian session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
NZDJPY Trend Pullback (Aug 10, 2017)
NZDJPY has been trending lower on its short-term time frames after recently bouncing off a long-term ceiling. Price is forming a descending trend line and a correction is underway.
Applying the Fib retracement tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 50% level lines up with the falling resistance around 81.30. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than the reverse.
Stochastic seems to be turning down from the overbought area, though, which suggests that sellers are eager to push price back down to the swing low near 80.15 or lower.
The RBNZ decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% as expected, adding that accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate for now. They did express concern about weak price pressures and reiterated that a lower NZD is needed.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has gained support on risk-off flows coming from the tensions with North Korea. The latest headlines are suggesting that Pyongyang is looking into a simultaneous firing of missiles on Guam, the nearest U.S. territory in the Pacific, and calling Trump’s “fire and fury” remark as “nonsense.”
Any indication that the situation is getting worse could mean more downside for higher-yielding currencies like the Kiwi and a likely rally in the safe-haven yen. On the other hand, easing tensions could bring risk-taking back to the table and keep the pair supported.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURGBP Countertrend Setup (Aug 11, 2017)
EURGBP is still trending higher as it tests the top of the ascending channel resistance visible on the 4-hour time frame. Stochastic is moving up to signal that there’s still some bullish pressure left but the oscillator is also closing in on the overbought zone to indicate potential profit-taking.
If that happens, price could pull back to the channel support near the .8900 major psychological mark. However, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The gap between the moving averages is also widening to indicate stronger bullish momentum.
A small pullback could last until the mid-channel area of interest close to the 100 SMA dynamic support or find a floor closer to the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point. Sustained buying momentum could even lead to an upside break of resistance at .9100 and a steeper rally.
Euro zone economic reports have been mostly stronger than expected so far this week, supporting the odds of ECB tapering before the end of the year. Data from the UK has been less upbeat, with manufacturing production falling flat and the goods trade balance showing a larger deficit of 12.7 billion GBP.
German and French final CPI readings are due today and no downgrades could allow the shared currency to hold on to its gains. There are no reports due from the UK economy so traders might hold out until next week’s batch of top-tier data, which includes CPI, jobs, and retail sales figures.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
