NZD/USD recently broke below a rising trend line connecting the lows of the price, indicating that the previous uptrend is already over. Before heading any lower though, the pair made a quick retracement move to the Fibonacci levels on the 1-hour time frame, possibly forming a head and shoulders pattern on the chart.
Stochastic is already in the overbought area, suggesting that Kiwi bears are ready to push the pair lower. The 61.8% Fibonacci level is closest to the broken trend line and might act as resistance for the latest rallies.
Shorting at the .8625 area with a stop above the broken trend line and a profit target of new lows could make for a good return on risk for a swing trade. If the head and shoulders pattern is completed, a breakdown could last by nearly 200 pips, which is the same height as the chart pattern.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
Well, Iâm trading from last 7 years and I observed that everyone gets high and low over a period of time. We must learn from the losses in order to gain high!
AUD/JPY recently made a strong break and sustained rally past the 94.00 major psychological level but it appears that a quick correction might take place. The pair has retreated upon reaching the 96.00 major psychological resistance and might bounce off the Fibonacci retracement levels on the 4-hour time frame.
The 50% Fibonacci level is closest in line with the former resistance at the 94.00 mark. However, stochastic is already in the oversold region, indicating that Aussie bulls are ready to push the pair back up. A shallow retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level might happen, as this is also in line with the rising trend line connecting the lows of the price.
Going long at 94.00 with a stop below the 61.8% Fib level and a target of the previous highs could yield a 2:1 return on risk. Aiming higher and adding positions on the break of the previous high could improve the potential reward.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
EUR/USD recently broke above a falling trend line on its 1-hour time frame, indicating that the downtrend is already over. The pair also surged past the 1.3800 area of interest, suggesting that more gains are in the works.
Do take note though that stochastic has already reached the overbought area, which means that buyers are already exhausted. In this case, a pullback to the previous area of resistance might be in the cards before the pair moves any higher. Traders might be interested to fade the reaction to the FOMC release.
With that, EUR/USD might retrace to the 1.3750 minor psychological support and broken trend line around 1.3700. Going long at 1.3750 with a stop below 1.3700 back under the trend line and a target of new highs near 1.4000 could make a good return on risk for a swing trade.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
AUD/USD made a strong rally yesterday thanks to upbeat jobs data, but it was unable to sustain its rally when Chinese CPI came in weaker than expected today. The pair topped around the .9450 minor psychological resistance level and is showing signs of pulling back to an area of interest.
As you can see on the 4-hour chart of the pair, there is a former resistance level at the .9300 major psychological mark. This lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stochastic is still moving down from the overbought zone, which means that sellers could push for a retracement back to the rising trend line. Take note though that the 50% Fib is better lined up with the trend line.
Going long at the 61.8% or 50% Fib levels with a stop below the .9300 major psychological support and trend line and a target of .9450 could yield a 2:1 return on risk for a day trade. Aiming for new highs could improve the return on risk but it would be prudent to move the stop to entry once price tests the .9450 area.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
Thatâs really good to hear. Hope, this will be helpful for binary trading.
A double bottom chart formation can be seen on AUD/NZDâs daily time frame, indicating that a long-term uptrend might be in the cards. This could take place if the pair is able to make a strong break past the neckline of the formation around the 1.0900 major psychological resistance.
Stochastic is reflecting selling momentum for now though, which means that Aussie buyers are waiting for a good catalyst before going long. An upside break from the neckline could yield as much as 400 pips in gains since the chart pattern is roughly 400 pips high.
Going long at 1.0950 to catch the breakout and setting a 100-pip stop below the neckline could yield a 3.5:1 return on risk if one aims for the 1.1300 major psychological resistance.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
USD/JPY is moving inside an ascending trend channel on its 4-hour time frame, indicating that further gains could be in the cards for the pair. Take note though that stochastic already reached the overbought zone and may indicate weakening buying momentum in the near term.
A small pullback might take place before the pair resumes its climb to the top of the channel around the 104.50 minor psychological resistance level. A deeper pullback could last until the channel support near the 102.00 major psychological level.
There are no major reports lined up from the US economy today while Japan got word that the government is mulling about loosening lending restrictions in order to make up for the potential drag from the sales tax hike.
Going long at market with a stop below the channel bottom and a target at the 104.50 level could yield a high return on risk for a swing trade.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
USD/CAD recently broke below a rising trend line on its 4-hour time frame, thanks to weak US non-farm payrolls data and a downbeat FOMC meeting minutes release. However, the pair is showing signs of exhaustion from the selloff and may be ready to make a quick retracement before resuming its drop.
The Fibonacci retracement levels on the 4-hour time frame line up with the broken trend line support and may act as resistance moving forward. Stochastic is moving down from the overbought zone, indicating selling momentum.
Shorting at the 50% Fib, which is close to the 1.1100 major psychological resistance with a stop above the 61.8% Fib and a target of new lows could yield a good return on risk. Moving the stop to entry once price tests the previous lows around 1.0900 could help minimize exposure.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
AUD/USD has sold off because of the weak Australian CPI reading but this might merely spark a large correction for the pairâs ongoing uptrend. On the 4-hour time frame, a rising trend line can be drawn to connect the lows of the price since mid-January this year.
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% Fib is in line with the trend line and former resistance area. Stochastic is already in the oversold zone, suggesting that selling pressure is exhausted.
Going long at .9230 with a stop below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and .9200 could yield a high return on risk with a target of the previous highs around .9450.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
CAD/JPY is in a short-term uptrend, as seen on the channel connecting the highs and lows of price action on the 1-hour time frame. In fact, the pair just came off a test of the channel support and bounced but it is finding resistance at the 93.00 major psychological level.
A double bottom pattern can be seen as the pair attempts to make another test of 93.00. An upside break could confirm the likelihood of more rallies, with the potential of reaching the channel resistance at the 94.50 to 95.00 psychological resistance levels.
Stochastic is pointing up, indicating that thereâs enough buying pressure to trigger more rallies. However, if the 93.00 mark holds, another test of support could be seen. Going long above the 93.00 mark with a stop below the bottom of the channel and a target at 95.00 could yield a 1:1 return on risk for a quick day trade.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
AUD/USD is in a strong uptrend on its short-term and long-term time frames but it appears that buyers need to regain energy before pushing the pair higher. In the 4-hour chart, the Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the pullback could take place until the 50% to 61.8% Fib levels, which are in line with the rising trend line connecting the lows of the price.
Take note that this is also in line with an area of interest, as evidenced by the previous consolidation towards the end of March. A bounce from the .9250 minor psychological support level might take place this week, as traders book profits off their Aussie shorts ahead of the top-tier market catalysts.
Bear in mind that the US will release its advanced GDP reading as well as its April NFP figure this week. Also scheduled are the FOMC rate statement and Fed Chairperson Yellenâs speech. Second-tier events include the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM manufacturing PMI.
This amount of volatility could lead to a resumption of the ongoing trends, but do be careful of the risk aversion that might be caused by the escalating tension in Ukraine.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
A double bottom pattern can clearly be seen on the daily chart of AUD/NZD, indicating that the recent downtrend is coming to an end. The neckline of the formation is around the 1.0900 to 1.0930 levels, although stochastic is indicating that buying pressure is fading.
A quick pullback to regain upward momentum might be in the cards before price makes an attempt to break above the double bottom neckline and confirm that a longer-term uptrend is underway. In this case, the rally might last by as much as 400 pips, which is the same as the height of the chart pattern.
On the other hand, a selloff could last until the previous lows just around the 1.0500 mark. A bounce from this support zone could create another bottom, which is still a valid reversal signal.
Going long above the 1.0950 level could catch the upside break and aiming for at least 300 pips could yield a 3:1 return on risk with a 100-pip stop below the patternâs neckline.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
EUR/NZD has been in a massive selling spree over the past couple of trading days, pushing the pair all the way down by at least 150 pips. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the 1-hour time frame though shows that the 61.8% Fib level has already been reached and may act as support moving forward.
Data from New Zealand has been relatively strong though, but it remains to be seen whether euro zone reports could trigger a bounce in price. Take note that the pair is currently stalling around an area of interest near the 1.6100 major psychological support.
A bounce from the current levels could mean a rally up to the previous highs near 1.6280. On the other hand, further declines could see the pair back down to the previous lows around the 1.6000 major psychological handle.
Going long at market if the euro zone reports are strong and aiming for 1.6280 with a stop of 100 pips could yield a 1.5-to-1 return on risk.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
AUD/CAD is currently testing a falling trend line on its 1-hour time frame, as it has pulled up after reaching the 1.0150 minor psychological support. The pair could now find resistance at the 38.2% to 50% Fib levels, which are close to the 1.0200 major psychological resistance.
Stochastic has already reached the overbought zone, indicating that buyers are exhausted. However, selling pressure hasnât mounted yet as the indicator hasnât crossed down from the 75-80 levels.
Shorting at the 1.0200 mark with a stop above the trend line or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a target of new lows could yield a good return on risk. Moving the stop to entry once price tests the latest lows at 1.0150 could be a good way to reduce exposure.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
EUR/USD is trading inside a symmetrical triangle on its 4-hour time frame as traders canât quite establish a clear direction on the pair. Price is testing the top of the triangle around the 1.3875 levels but stochastic is reflecting selling pressure.
A selloff from its current levels could take the pair back to the bottom of the triangle at the 1.3775 area. Consolidation around the current levels could be seen for the most part of the day as traders await the results of the non-farm payrolls report for April.
Recall that the US dollar reacts to fundamentals during this release, as a strong jobs figure tends to support the currency while a weak reading leads to a selloff. The past report has printed a bleak result but there could be a stronger showing this time around. The consensus is at a 216K rise in employment, which could push the jobless rate down to 6.6% from 6.7%.
In this case, EUR/USD might selloff to the bottom of the triangle and an even stronger figure could lead to a breakdown. Take note that the chart pattern is roughly 300 pips in height, which suggests that the resulting selloff could be of the same size.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
NZD/USD is approaching the top of the range on its 4-hour time frame, suggesting that the pairâs rallies are soon over. This depends on the top-tier data releases from New Zealand and the U.S. this week though.
The stochastic on the 4-hour chart is already deep in the overbought zone, which means that Kiwi bears are ready to push the pair back down. If the price ceiling holds at .8700, NZD/USD could find its way back down to the bottom of the range near the .8500 major psychological level.
On the other hand, an upside break could mean more gains for the pair, possibly until the next major resistance at the .9000 mark. However, the RBNZ has been intent to keep the Kiwi weak and they might jawbone the currency once it breaks past the .8700 mark to the dollar.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
USD/CHF has been moving inside a falling trend channel for the past week, as dollar demand has remained weak while Swiss economic data have shown improvements. The pair just came off a test of the channel resistance and underwent a sharp selloff to the channel support.
At the moment, the pair is moving sideways in tight consolidation, waiting for more clues from economic data. An upside break from the box pattern could confirm that rallies are about to happen and might last until the top of the channel around .8825. On the other hand, a sharp downside break could go below the support level and indicate that further losses are in the cards for USD/CHF.
A straddle setup might be the best way to play this pair for now, as top-tier data from the US could dictate where price action could go. US trade balance is due today but the bigger mover could be Yellenâs testimony in Congress during tomorrowâs US trading session.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
NZD/USD made a strong upside break from the top of its range, which is around the .8700 major psychological resistance. This level could act as support moving forward, as it is close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stochastic is moving out of the overbought zone, indicating increased selling pressure in the near term. This could lead to a deeper retracement, possibly until the 50% Fib level, which is in line with the .8550 minor psychological support.
Waiting for stochastic to reach the oversold area before taking a long position could be a prudent move, as bulls wait for a better price to reestablish their buy orders. Going long at .8550 with a stop below the 61.8% Fib and a target above the previous highs could yield a good return on risk.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way
USD/CHF has recently broken below a support zone visible on the 1-hour time frame, indicating that further losses might be in the cards. After dipping to a low of .8720, the pair has shown signs of retracing, which might offer the chance to jump in the downtrend at a better price.
The Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low indicates that the 50% level is closest in line to the former support area. On top of that, stochastic is in the overbought zone with a bearish divergence. As you can see, price made lower highs from May 6 to 8 while the oscillator made higher highs.
Shorting at the 50% Fib with a stop above the 61.8% Fib and a target of new lows could yield at least a 2:1 return on risk.
By Kate Curtis from Traderâs Way