USDJPY has been trending lower on the longer-term time frames but it looks like an upside breakout and reversal might be due. Price is making another test of the descending channel resistance on the daily time frame without even hitting the channel support previously.
The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance could still be to the downside. The channel resistance is also near the 100 SMA, which might hold as dynamic resistance. Stochastic is on middle ground on its way down so there may be some selling pressure left.
However, USDJPY also seems to have formed a descending triangle formation with support around 100.00. Price has just recently bounced off this support level and is once again testing the triangle resistance. An upside breakout could lead to the formation of a double bottom pattern, another reversal signal.
There are no major releases from both the US and Japan today, leaving risk sentiment and central bank speculations as the main drivers of price action. On Monday, a speech by FOMC member Brainard weighed on Fed rate hike expectations since she emphasized the need to stay prudent and wait for more evidence of stronger consumer spending and inflation before tightening.
Meanwhile, a Nikkei report revealed that policymakers in the BOJ might be considering cutting interest rates deeper into negative territory. This could come with a countermeasure of trimming JGB purchases as the central bank might drop its timeline of achieving 2% inflation in two years. A BOJ official noted that these are still up for discussion but added that they have to weigh the benefits and costs of these moves first.
On Friday, the US will print its CPI and retail sales reports. These should provide a better idea of whether or not spending and inflation are picking up as expected, likely influencing Fed rate hike expectations before their actual decision next week. For now, the idea of a rate hike is weighing on risk sentiment and keeping the safe-haven dollar supported.
USDCAD has formed higher lows and found resistance at the 1.3200 major psychological level, creating an ascending triangle pattern on its 4-hour time frame. Price is currently testing the resistance, still deciding whether to go for a bounce or a break.
The moving averages are oscillating, which suggests that the consolidation could continue and that price could head back to the support near 1.2925. However, the 100 SMA seems to be crossing above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If so, a break higher could take place and bring USDCAD up by around 700 pips or the same height as the chart formation.
Stochastic seems ready to head down from the overbought zone to show a return in selling pressure. In that case, the resistance could still hold and force the pair to make its way back to the bottom of the pattern or even go for a breakdown.
Market catalysts for today could determine where this pair might be headed, as the US is set to print its retail sales and PPI reports. Headline retail sales could fall by 0.1% while core retail sales could increase by 0.3%, with weaker than expected data likely to dampen Fed rate hike hopes for next week.
Headline PPI and core PPI are both expected to print 0.1% gains. Import prices data released yesterday showed a sharper than expected 0.2% drop versus the projected 0.1% dip, likely adding downside pressure on producer prices. Other reports due from the US are the Philly Fed index, industrial production, current account balance, and initial jobless claims.
There are no major reports from Canada, leaving oil prices and market sentiment as the main drivers of price action. The recent US EIA oil inventories report showed a drop of 0.6 million barrels in stockpiles instead of the projected rise of 2.8 million barrels, but this failed to keep crude oil prices supported for very long.
EURAUD recently broke above the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, signaling a reversal from its previous downtrend. Before price resumes its climb, it could still make a pullback to the broken resistance area.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high on the 4-hour chart shows that the broken neckline coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which might keep losses in check. The 100 SMA is also close to this area, adding to its strength as support, and is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Stochastic is still on the move down to show that there’s still some bearish pressure present. Once the oscillator reaches the oversold area and turns higher, buyers could regain control of price action and push for a climb to the recent highs at 1.5090.
Economic data from Australia came in weaker than expected yesterday, as the economy lost 3.9K jobs in August instead of reporting the estimated 15.2K gain. The jobless rate fell but mostly due to weaker labor force participation, reflecting weaker confidence in job prospects.
As for the euro zone, industrial production also missed expectations, contributing to the shared currency’s slide. Final CPI readings were unchanged at 0.2% for the headline reading and 0.8% for the core figure.
There are no major reports due from both Australia and the euro zone today so a bit of consolidation could be seen or the pair could react to risk sentiment. Weaker risk appetite tends to favor the lower-yielding euro compared to the commodity currency.
AUDUSD seems to be tired from its climb since it already formed a head and shoulders reversal pattern on its 4-hour time frame. Price also broke below the neckline at the .7500 major psychological level, confirming its potential selloff.
The 100 SMA just crossed below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside and that the downtrend could gain traction. However, stochastic is still pointing up to suggest that there’s a bit of buying pressure in play.
In that case, AUDUSD could still pull up to the dynamic resistance around the moving averages, which might keep gains in check. A stronger rally could push price up to the resistance near the .7700 major psychological mark.
Economic data from Australia turned out mostly weaker than expected last week, as the economy lost 3.9K jobs in August and reported a drop in labor force participation. Data from China was mixed, with industrial production and retail sales beating expectations while CPI fell short.
This week, the RBA minutes are up for release and this should contain more clues on what the Australian central bank has in mind for the rest of the year. The RBA kept interest rates on hold in their previous decision, citing concerns about the housing market but still maintaining a relatively neutral view.
The bigger market mover for the week would likely be the FOMC statement, as market watchers are still divided on what the US central bank might do or say. Most market watchers seem to have priced against an interest rate for now but might be looking out for clues that tightening could still take place in December.
GBPUSD has been trading sideways on its 4-hour time frame, moving between support at the 1.2900 area and resistance at 1.3450. Price is nearing the bottom of the range at the moment and might be due for another bounce.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is still to the upside and supporting the idea that the range support would hold. Stochastic is also on the move up from the oversold region to show that bears are exhausted and that pound bulls could take over.
If so, the pair could make its way back up to the top of the range or at least until the middle around 1.3150. A breakdown from support, on the other hand, could lead to a selloff of around 550 pips, which is roughly the same height as the chart formation.
Last week, the BOE refrained from adding stimulus since they already cut rates and boosted bond purchases in their August decision. Still, policymakers seem to be keeping the door open for further cuts if the Brexit does more damage on the UK economy. On Friday, UK Chancellor Hammond warned that they risk losing access to the single European market if they push for immigration reforms in the Brexit negotiations.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is facing the upcoming FOMC statement later this week. Traders still seem to be divided on their expectations for the outcome as economic data has been showing improvements but these might not be enough to convince policymakers to tighten. Updated projections for growth and inflation are also due so these should give an idea of what the Fed has in mind for the rest of the year.
Cautious remarks could force the dollar to turn as bulls unwind their rate hike positions. Also, this could bring risk appetite back to the table since businesses and consumers could enjoy low borrowing rates for a bit longer. Additional volatility is expected during this event so wider stops are recommended.
EURGBP has been trending higher on its 4-hour chart, moving inside an ascending channel pattern and making its way towards the resistance around the .8800 major psychological level. For now, price seems to be pulling back to the mid-channel area of interest before resuming its climb.
A test of resistance could lead to another move back to the channel support since stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions. This means that bullish pressure is fading and that sellers could take control soon. If so, a selloff back to the .8400 handle could ensue.
The 100 SMA is also below the longer-term 200 SMA, signaling that the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, an upward crossover could draw more buyers to the mix and give EURGBP enough momentum to break past the channel resistance.
There were no major releases from both the euro zone and the UK earlier in the week, as most of the main event risks have already passed. Both the ECB and the BOE have decided to keep monetary policy unchanged, although the UK central bank seems more inclined to implement more easing in the near term.
UK public sector net borrowing data is due today while there are still no other reports lined up from the euro zone. Thursday has a speech by ECB Governor Draghi and a testimony by BOE Governor Carney later in the day, likely providing additional volatility for this pair.
On Friday, euro zone flash PMI readings are due, providing an early glimpse of business conditions in the region for September. Small declines are eyed for both Germany and France, likely weighing on the shared currency’s gains by then.
EURJPY recently broke below support around the 114.00 major psychological level then dipped close to the 112.00 mark before pulling up. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that this broken support and area of interest is between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which might keep further gains in check.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA on this 4-hour time frame, though, which means that the path of least resistance is still to the upside. The gap between the moving averages is narrowing so a downward crossover might be imminent, possibly signaling a buildup in bearish pressure. In addition, the 200 SMA lines up with the 50% Fib and area of interest, possibly acting as dynamic resistance.
Stochastic is on the move up to show that buyers are in control of price action for now. This suggests that the correction could carry on until reversal candlesticks form or the oscillator reaches the overbought zone to show bullish exhaustion.
Japanese banks were closed for the holiday yesterday so traders likely booked profits after the BOJ statement earlier in the week. The central bank announced some adjustments in its monetary policy goals, shifting towards targeting the yield curve and sharing plans for more aggressive stimulus. Earlier today, Japan reported a strong flash manufacturing PMI reading, which is up from 49.5 to 50.3 in September instead of falling to 49.3.
As for the euro, there were no major reports out of the region yesterday although the LTRO showed a drop from 399.3 billion EUR to just 45.3 billion EUR, reflecting a lower value in the long-term loans issued to banks. Euro zone flash PMI readings are due today and small declines in the manufacturing and services sectors of Germany and France are expected.
[I]
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[/I]
AUDUSD is starting to trend lower, forming a descending channel pattern on its 4-hour time frame. Price is currently testing the resistance near the .7650 minor psychological level and could be due to resume its drop to the channel support at .7450.
Stochastic is turning lower and making its way out of the overbought zone to indicate that sellers are taking control of price action. Also, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so an upward crossover could be due. In that case, Aussie bulls could try to push price higher, especially if the moving averages also hold as near-term dynamic support.
The RBA minutes released last week indicated that the Australian central bank is no longer inclined to cut interest rates in the next few months, citing a relatively upbeat assessment of their economy. On the other hand, the FOMC disappointed dollar bulls by refraining to hike interest rates during their policy decision.
Still, the Fed noted that they’ll be keeping close tabs on data to see if they can be able to tighten monetary policy by the end of the year. There’s not much in the way of US reports this week, though, as traders will have to wait for the NFP report due the following week to gauge if employment continues to improve.
A number of FOMC policymakers are set to make testimonies this week, including George, Tarullo, Bullard, and Fischer. Fed Chairperson Yellen also has a couple of testimonies lined up and she could reiterate their hawkish bias, possibly allowing the dollar to regain ground.
NZDUSD was previously trading inside an ascending channel formation before making a downside break and hitting a low of .7220. From there, price showed signs of a pullback and looks ready to make a retest of the broken channel support at the .7300 major psychological level.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% retracement level also coincides with the broken channel support, adding to its strength as potential resistance. If it holds as a ceiling, NZDUSD could resume its drop to the previous lows or much lower.*
The 100 SMA just crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In addition, the moving averages appear to be holding as dynamic inflection points at the moment. Stochastic is already on the move down from the overbought zone to show that sellers are taking control of price action.
Last week, the RBNZ hinted that they’re keeping the door open for additional rate cuts, citing concerns about inflation and weak demand from emerging economies. Governor Wheeler also emphasized that the Kiwi is trading at high levels, which is dampening export activity and overall growth.
Meanwhile, the FOMC also decided to keep rates on hold for the time being but hinted that they could still tighten in their next policy meetings. Three members voted to hike in September, reflecting a shift to a more hawkish committee. For now, policymakers have indicated that they’ll be keeping close tabs on upcoming data to see if they can stay on track towards hiking rates soon.
There’s not much in the way of top-tier reports from both economies this week, though, so these monetary policy biases could be the main driver of price action. Apart from that, overall market sentiment could also be influenced by the US presidential debates and the OPEC meetings, with risk-off moves favoring the safe-haven USD.
EURUSD has formed lower highs and found support at the 1.1130 area, creating a descending triangle formation on its 4-hour chart. Price is currently testing the triangle resistance and might be due for a drop back towards support.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside, adding confirmation that the triangle resistance could keep gains in check. Stochastic is also on the move down, which suggests that sellers are in control of price action for now.
However, the oscillator is nearing the oversold zone so this bearish pressure could fade soon. In that case, price could make another bounce off support and go for a climb back to the resistance at 1.1250. Stronger bullish momentum could trigger a breakout, which could result in a rally of around 200 pips, which is the same height as the chart formation.
Economic data from the US came in mostly stronger than expected yesterday, with both the flash services PMI and CB consumer confidence index beating expectations and hinting at stronger business and consumer activity down the line. Data from the euro zone fell short of estimates, with German import prices down 0.2% versus the projected 0.1% dip, adding downside pressure on inflation.
For today, Germany will print its GfK consumer climate index and likely show no change from the previous 10.2 reading. The US is set to report durable goods orders data, with analysts expecting to see a 1.0 drop in the headline figure and a 0.5% decline in the core reading. Fed head Yellen and FOMC member Bullard also have testimonies lined up, as hawkish remarks could keep the dollar supported on rate hike hopes.
ECB head Draghi also has a testimony lined up but his speech earlier in the week didn’t contain much surprises. Still, any remarks cautioning about the impact of the Brexit on the euro zone economy could keep a lid on the shared currency’s gains.
USDCAD failed in its recent attempts to break past the 1.3250 minor psychological resistance and is moving closer to testing support at the 1.3000 mark. This could complete the formation of a double top pattern, with a break below the neckline likely sending the pair lower by at least 250 pips.
However, the 100 SMA just crossed above the 200 SMA to show that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the 1.3000 level could still hold as support and push price to bounce back up to the 1.3250 resistance for the formation of another top or even an upside break. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, which means that bearish momentum is exhausted, so buyers might take over.
The OPEC gathering in Algiers concluded with energy ministers saying that they’ve reached an agreement. However, this refers only to an outline for an output deal and not an actual production cap just yet. As it turns out, they have yet to agree on the size and scale of the program, and market watchers will have to wait until the next official OPEC meeting in November 30 to see if the deal will push through.
For now, crude oil bulls are pushing the commodity price up, which is supporting the positively-correlated Canadian currency as well. Stronger oil prices could mean strong revenues for Canada’s energy sector, which comprises a huge chunk of its business and export activity.
As for the US dollar, traders still seem to be hopeful for a Fed rate hike in November or December. Data has been slightly better than expected in terms of durable goods orders for August but the July readings were downgraded. There’s not much in the way of top-tier US data today so traders might hold out for next week’s NFP release.
EURAUD was previously trading inside an ascending channel on its 4-hour time frame before breaking lower and showing that a reversal is due. Price has found support near the 1.4600 mark and has pulled up from its dive to retest the broken channel bottom around the 1.4700 major psychological level.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 23.6% retracement level lines up with the broken support area and might be enough to keep further gains in check. A higher retracement could last until the 38.2% Fib which is near the moving averages.
The 100 SMA is still above the 200 SMA for now so the path of least resistance could be to the upside. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so a downward crossover could be due. Also, stochastic is nearing the overbought zone and a turn lower could draw more euro bears to the mix.
News of hedge funds moving their derivatives holdings away from Deutsche Bank inspired risk aversion in recent trading sessions, triggering a flight to safety in financial assets. However, the euro managed to hold on to its gains against the Aussie, which is a higher-yielding and riskier currency.
Economic data from the euro zone came in mixed, as German and Spanish flash CPI readings beat expectations but the German unemployment change report showed a 1K rise in joblessness versus the projected 5K increase in hiring. There were no reports out of Australia yesterday but the commodity currency could still draw support from the lack of dovishness in the RBA minutes released earlier in the month.
For today, Australia will release its numbers on private sector credit and HIA new home sales. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI is also due and a rise from 50.0 to 50.1 is eyed for September, likely shoring up demand for the Aussie, especially if the actual results beat expectations.
NZDUSD has formed lower highs and found support at the .7240 area, creating a descending triangle on its 4-hour time frame. Price seems to have bounced off the triangle resistance and is making a move towards support.
A breakout in either direction could lead to a rally or selloff of around 250 pips, which is the same height as the chart formation. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA for now, but a downward crossover seems imminent so sellers could take control of price action and trigger a break of support.*
Stochastic is on middle ground but also appears to be turning lower, confirming that bearish pressure might return and push NZDUSD lower. So far, the moving averages also appear to have held as dynamic resistance as well.
Economic data from the US came in mixed last Friday, as Chicago PMI and the revised consumer sentiment index from the UoM beat expectations. The core PCE price index and personal income reading came in line with expectations while personal spending fell short.*
The US ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and this could provide a preview of how Friday’s much-anticipated NFP reading might turn out. Analysts are expecting to see a rise from 49.4 to 50.4 and are likely to pay close attention to the jobs component.*
As for New Zealand, the GDT auction might be the main event this week, as gains in the dairy index have been slowing and might slump back to negative territory this week. Over the weekend, Chinese PMI readings came in line with expectations, keeping comdolls supported for now.
GBPJPY has been selling off recently but is currently testing support at the descending triangle pattern visible on its 4-hour chart. Price seems to have found a floor at the 130.00 major psychological level and could be due for a move up to the resistance at the 134.50 minor psychological level.
However, the 100 SMA just crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If so, a break below the descending triangle support could be seen, taking the pair lower by around a thousand pips or the same height as the chart formation.
Stochastic is on the move up to show that bullish momentum is in play. If the rally is weak, price could encounter resistance around the middle of the pattern or the dynamic inflection points around the moving averages.
Economic data from the UK was stronger than expected yesterday, with the manufacturing PMI up from 53.4 to 55.4 to show a stronger pace of industry expansion. This was higher than the consensus at 52.1. UK construction PMI data is due today and a dip from 49.2 to 49.1 is eyed while Wednesday’s services PMI release could see a fall from 52.9 to 52.1.
It appears, however, that the confirmation that Article 50 would be invoked by the British government by the first quarter of next year has resulted to a fresh wave of uncertainty for the British economy. Prime Minister Theresa May has mentioned that the UK could leave the single market and pursue trade ties with other nations instead.
As for the Japanese yen, data has also been mostly weaker than expected, with the Tankan figures released over the weekend reflecting declines in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Japan’s consumer confidence index is due today and a drop from 42.0 to 41.8 is eyed.
USDJPY seems to be establishing bullish momentum as price started to break above the descending triangle resistance visible on its 4-hour chart. The chart pattern is approximately 700 pips tall so the resulting breakout could be of the same size.
The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame, suggesting that the path of least resistance could be to the downside. This could lead to a quick pullback to the broken triangle resistance at 101.50 before price resumes its climb. This broken resistance lines up with the dynamic support around the moving averages also.
Stochastic is on the move down from the overbought zone, also signaling that bears are set to take control of price action from here. If the triangle resistance holds as a floor, USDJPY could carry on with its climb up to 108.00. On the other hand, a sharp selloff below the 100.00 mark could send the pair lower by 700 pips instead.
Earlier in the week, economic data from the US has been stronger than expected. The ISM manufacturing PMI was up from 49.4 to 51.5, reflecting a return to industry growth and outpacing the consensus at 50.4. The jobs component was still below 50.0 but it showed a slower pace of contraction, supporting positive expectations for the NFP release later in the week.
For today, the US ADP non-farm employment change report is due and a weaker gain of 166K compared to the earlier 177K reading is eyed. Also lined up today is the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which might show a climb from 51.4 to 53.1. Traders are likely to pay close attention to the jobs component once more, with a strong read yielding more gains for the dollar.
As for the Japanese yen, there have been no major reports recently but it appears as though bulls are unwinding their positions. Stronger expectations of a Fed rate hike for the year could draw more funds away from the lower-yielding currency and onto the dollar instead.
GBPAUD has been selling off but is currently finding support at the bottom of its descending channel on the 4-hour time frame. The 1.6700 handle seems to be keeping losses in check and if it continues to do so, price could bounce back to the top of the channel at 1.7400 or at least until the middle at 1.7100.
The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Also, the gap between the moving averages is widening, which means that bearish momentum is getting stronger.*
However, stochastic is on the move up to show that buyers are taking control of price action. In that case, price could make a quick pullback from its dive as sellers book profits. Any large pullback could encounter resistance around the dynamic inflection points at these moving averages.
Economic data from the UK has actually been stronger than expected, with the latest services PMI release showing a drop from 52.9 to 52.6 instead of 52.1. Manufacturing and construction PMI have posted stronger than expected gains, signaling that the economy could stay afloat even with the looming Brexit.
However, it seems as though the idea of leaving the single EU market is taking a huge toll on the pound since investors believe that this could severely dampen demand and business activity. Over the weekend, UK PM May confirmed that they would trigger Article 50 by the first quarter of next year, causing a sharp selloff for the currency since then.
Meanwhile, the RBA refrained from cutting rates in their statement this week, leading many to predict that they would sit on their hands for the rest of the year. Australian retail sales and trade balance have both come in better than expected, confirming that there’s no need for additional easing.
USDJPY recently broke outside its descending triangle pattern visible on the 4-hour time frame. Price found resistance around the 104.00 handle and might be ready for a pullback to the broken triangle resistance at the 101.50 minor psychological level.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% retracement level lines up with this broken triangle resistance and area of interest. This is also near the moving averages, which could hold as dynamic support levels.
However, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, signaling that the path of least resistance is to the downside. The gap between these moving averages is narrow so a crossover could be possible. Stochastic is heading south from the overbought zone to show that bearish pressure is picking up and that a correction is due.
The main catalyst for this pair today would be the NFP release, which might show a 171K increase in hiring versus the previous 151K figure. Leading jobs indicators have been printing improvements so traders have set their expectations up for an upside surprise, which could support Fed rate hike expectations for December or even November.
A downside surprise, however, could spark a sharp dollar selloff as this would douse hopes for Fed tightening. Still, analysts believe that any reading over 100K could keep tightening expectations in play keep the dollar afloat.
Data from Japan has been mostly weaker than expected, ramping up speculations that the BOJ would have to increase stimulus at some point. Apart from that, bulls appear to be booking profits off their long positions and have run out of steam in pushing yen pairs down.
EURAUD was recently in a downtrend before price formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on its 1-hour time frame. Price has yet to break past the formation’s neckline around the 1.4775 level before confirming the potential reversal.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on the 1-hour time frame, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Also, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect a buildup in bullish momentum. The 100 SMA appears to have held as near-term dynamic support as well.
Stochastic is pointing down to show that selling pressure is in play. If the 1.4775 area continues to keep gains in check, price could still sink to the lows near the 1.4600 handle.
There were no major reports out of Australia and the euro zone last Friday and no major ones are due today. However, central bank biases from both economies could keep the pair afloat. The RBA monetary policy statement kept its neutral tone, reflecting a smooth transition to the new leadership under Governor Philip Lowe.
Earlier last week, rumors swirled that the ECB was considering tapering its bond purchases even before the conclusion of its QE program, leading to a strong boost for the shared currency. However, Governor Draghi mentioned that no such discussions have taken place.
German trade balance, Italian industrial production, and euro zone Sentix investor confidence data are lined up for today, likely adding volatility to euro pairs. Japanese, US, and Canadian banks are closed for the holiday so the low liquidity environment could set the stage for another round of volatile moves.
USDCAD has formed higher lows and higher highs, creating a rising wedge formation visible on its 4-hour chart. Price is currently testing the wedge support at 1.3185 and could be due for a breakout soon. If support holds, price could head back to the resistance at 1.3315.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Also, the short-term moving average lines up with the wedge support, adding to its strength as a floor.*
Stochastic is on the move down to show that sellers are in control of price action for now but the oscillator is nearing the oversold region. Once it turns from that area and moves higher, price could follow suit. A break in either direction could result to a move of at least 300 pips, which is roughly the same height as the chart formation.
US and Canadian banks were closed for their respective holiday yesterday, keeping liquidity thin for the pair. However, price was pushed around by movements in crude oil prices, as the commodity got a boost from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments on cooperating with the OPEC should they decide to impose a production freeze or cut.
Another informal OPEC meeting is scheduled for the week but Iran and Iraq won’t be attending, which suggests that no major decisions are likely to come from this gathering. Still, a stronger resolve to stabilize prices could lead to another boost for the commodity on this data-light week.
Jobs data from Canada came in better than expected for September, and so did the Ivey PMI reading. There’s not much in the way of top-tier data from Canada this week while the US has the FOMC minutes and retail sales data due later on.
