Cable has been trending higher recently, moving inside an uptrend channel visible on its 1-hour chart. Price just hit the top of the channel and is showing signs of a pullback to support at the 1.2500 major psychological support.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% retracement level is closest to the channel support and lines up with a former resistance area. This could be enough to keep losses in check and allow price to head back to the swing high or until the channel resistance at 1.2800.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In addition, the 100 SMA lines up with the channel support, adding to its strength as a floor. Stochastic is on the move down to show that bears are in control of price action for now but the oscillator is already nearing the oversold zone.
UK services PMI came in stronger than expected earlier this week, keeping investors confident that the economy is staying afloat even with Brexit uncertainties. Manufacturing and industrial production numbers are due today and 0.2% gains are eyed, with stronger than expected data likely to lift Cable higher.
Only the JOLTS job openings report and consumer credit data are up for release from the US today while initial jobless claims are due on Thursday and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index is scheduled for Friday.
There are no other top-tier reports set for release from the UK in the next few days so Brexit-related headlines and even euro zone political updates could influence pound price action for the rest of the week.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
GBPJPY sold off recently but is still trading above an ascending trend line connecting the latest lows of price action on the 1-hour chart. Price is gearing up for a test of the support level, which lines up with the Fib levels. In particular, the 50% level is close to the 142.50 minor psychological support.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In addition, the 200 SMA lines up with the rising trend line support, adding to its strength as a potential floor.
Stochastic is pointing down to show that sellers are still in control of price action. Once the oscillator reaches the oversold area and turns higher, buyers could return and push price up to the swing high at 146.00 or higher.
UK Supreme Court hearings are still influencing sterling movements for the time being, as the government might no longer need to get the lawmakers’ approval before proceeding with Article 50. Prior to this PM May conceded to publishing their Brexit strategy in order to get the go signal to proceed with their timeline for starting negotiations.
Economic data from the UK has been mostly stronger than expected, as industry PMIs have reported improvements and reflected resilience despite uncertainties. UK manufacturing and industrial production, however, have turned out weaker than expected.
There are no reports due from the UK today while Japan has just printed mixed data. Its current account surplus was larger than expected while the final GDP reading was downgraded from 0.6% to 0.3%. UK goods trade balance and construction output are up for release on Friday.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURAUD has been moving sideways recently and the latest set of market events have allowed the range to hold. Price just bounced off the resistance at 1.4475 and is now headed back towards support at the 1.4150 minor psychological level.
The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that EURAUD is likely to head all the way down to test the bottom of the range. If selling pressure is strong enough, a downside break could even be possible, taking the pair lower by more than 300 pips.
Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, though, which suggests that sellers are already exhausted from the drop. In that case, a bounce off the range support back to the resistance could also be possible, although the moving averages could hold as near-term resistance around 1.4300.
In their policy statement, the ECB announced an extension of their QE program until December next year. This was accompanied by a reduction in the size of their monthly bond purchases from 80 billion EUR to 60 billion EUR, but analysts predicted that the easing program could go beyond the new end-date as well.
ECB staff forecasts were revised to show upgrades in next year’s growth and inflation forecasts but Governor Draghi pointed out that their targets are different from those estimates. This suggests that the central bank could continue taking action to boost growth and inflation much further.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar sold off earlier in the week on a surprise GDP contraction for Q3. Australia’s trade balance also missed forecasts but components indicated that both imports and exports advanced. Chinese inflation figures were mixed but both reflected improvements over their previous readings.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
NZDUSD is trending higher on its 1-hour time frame, moving inside a rising channel connecting the latest highs and lows of price action. Price is currently testing the channel support, which lines up with a former short-term resistance.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside, which suggests that the uptrend is more likely to continue rather than reverse. In addition, the 200 SMA lines up with the channel support at .7115, adding to its strength as a floor.
Price could head back up to the channel resistance at the .7250-.7300 levels from here. Stochastic is turning from the oversold region to indicate a return in buying pressure from here. However, a break below the channel support could still draw sellers to the mix and force a downtrend.
There’s not much in terms of top-tier releases from New Zealand this week, although last week’s events were mostly bullish for the Kiwi. RBNZ Governor Wheeler remarked that they’re not likely to cut rates again anytime soon, adding that the Kiwi’s appreciation isn’t too much of a problem recently. The GDT auction also yielded yet another gain in dairy prices.
This week, the main event risk might be the FOMC statement. Although most traders already expect the Fed to hike interest rates, market watchers are more interested to find out what policymakers have in mind for next year. Any indication that they’re likely to sit on their hands for a long time again could force the dollar to retreat.
Medium-tier risks include New Zealand’s manufacturing sales report for Q3, China’s industrial production and retail sales figures, US retail sales data, and US CPI readings. Weak US reports could reinforce the view that Fed tightening won’t happen again anytime soon, which could be bearish for the dollar.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USDJPY appears to be stalling from its recent rallies as price is approaching a long-term area of interest visible on the daily and weekly charts. Price previously broke below support at the 116.00 major psychological level, which might hold as resistance from here.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame so the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, the moving averages appear to be turning higher to indicate a potential upward crossover and a continuation of the climb.
Price is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near the 115.00 handle and might be ready to turn lower and revisit the swing low at 99.00 from here. Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and is starting to turn lower to suggest a pickup in bearish pressure.
Economic data from Japan has been slightly lower than expectations this week, with the tertiary industry activity index up by 0.2% versus the projected 0.3% gain while preliminary machine tool orders sank by 5.6%. The Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing readings are still up for release later on in the week, providing clues on whether or not the BOJ might need to make policy adjustments for the next week.
As for the dollar, the FOMC statement is the main event risk for the week. An interest rate hike of 0.25% is expected as the US economy is approaching full employment and has shown consistent improvements in growth and inflation. However, policymakers might caution that this would be their last tightening move in a long while and highlight the uncertainties stemming from the new US presidency.
US retail sales and PPI readings are also up for release ahead of the FOMC statement, but the dot plot projection of rate changes could steal the show for the day. Any indication that rate hikes are still possible within the next six months could keep the dollar supported.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
AUDUSD is slowly trending higher, moving inside a rising wedge pattern visible on its 1-hour and 4-hour charts. Price is testing the resistance and could be due for a move back to support at the .7475 level.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. The 200 SMA lines up with the wedge support, adding to its strength as a floor. However, if a breakdown occurs, a longer-term downtrend could be in the cards.
Stochastic is heading south to show that sellers are in control of price action for now. However, the oscillator is already dipping into the oversold region to show that bearish pressure is about to fade and that buyers could regain control.
The main event risk for the day is the FOMC statement, as the Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 0.25% while making adjustments to their dot plot forecasts and economic projections. Fed Chairperson Yellen might give a few cautious remarks to prevent any excessive risk rallies or profit-taking among bonds and equities.
Earlier in the day, Australia reported a 3.9% slump in Westpac consumer sentiment for December, following the earlier 1.1% drop. New motor vehicle sales were down 0.6% compared to the previous 2.4% slide, indicating that financial confidence is still shaky.
US retail sales and PPI figures are also up for release in today’s US session. Headline consumer spending could be up 0.3% while core retail sales could show a 0.4% gain, both weaker than their previous readings. Meanwhile, headline PPI is slated to show a 0.1% uptick while core PPI could print a 0.2% gain.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
AUDUSD broke down from its wedge formation after the FOMC statement but signs of a correction are materializing. Applying the Fib tool on the breakdown move shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken wedge support at the .7450 minor psychological level.
The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance might still be to the upside. These moving averages are close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which could be the line in the sand for any retracement.
Stochastic is moving up from the oversold zone to suggest a return in buying pressure. This could keep the correction going or draw more buyers to the mix so that the longer-term uptrend resumes. If sellers return, AUDUSD could head back to its previous lows at .7380 or lower.
The FOMC hiked interest rates by 0.25% as expected to a range of 0.50-0.75% and signaled room for three interest rate hikes next year. This reflects a more hawkish stance compared to their September forecast of two interest rate hikes in 2017. Also, Fed officials upgraded their growth and jobs forecasts for next year while maintaining inflation estimates.
According to Fed head Yellen, the US economy is growing at a moderate pace and further improvements are expected in the labor market. Market-based measures of inflation are also higher since the start of the year. She mentioned that the incoming Trump administration’s fiscal plans have been incorporated in their economic forecasts but that they can’t speculate how these policy changes might affect their outlook and bias.
As for Australia, economic reports have been mixed. Hiring rose by 39.1K versus the projected 17.6K figure but the unemployment rate rose from 5.6% to 5.7% in the same month. MI inflation expectations improved from 3.2% to 3.4% but Westpac consumer sentiment reflected a sharp 3.9% slide for December.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
GBPJPY is still trending higher, moving above a rising trend line on its 1-hour chart and getting ready for another test of support. The trend line coincides with a former resistance at the 146.00 to 146.50 levels, which might hold as support from here.
The 100 SMA lines up with the rising trend line, adding to its strength as a floor. This is above the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The gap between the moving averages is widening so bullish momentum is getting stronger.
Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions, which means that sellers need to take a break and let buyers take over. GBPJPY could move up to the previous highs around the 148.50 minor psychological resistance or higher.
The BOE was less upbeat than expected in their latest policy meeting, citing that price pressures and growth could be subdued in the coming year. They had a unanimous vote to keep interest rates and asset purchases unchanged but warned that adjustments could go either way depending on Brexit risks.*
Still, economic data from the UK has been mostly stronger than expected this week. Headline and core CPI came in better than expected and printed faster gains in price levels while the claimant count showed a smaller increase in joblessness. The average earnings index advanced from 2.4% to 2.5% to reflect stronger wage growth while retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.2% uptick.
As for the yen, the Fed’s decision to hike rates and indicate room for three more increases next year could push the currency on another leg lower. The BOJ is scheduled to announce its monetary policy statement early next week and could give more details on their yield-targeting measures.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURAUD made another bounce off its support at the 1.4125-1.4150 area late last week and looks ready for a test of resistance at the 1.4500 major psychological mark. If this holds as a ceiling, the pair could head back to the bottom of the range once more.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the top of the range is more likely to keep gains in check than break. Stochastic is heading lower, also suggesting that sellers are regaining control of price action.
Note, however, that the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so an upward crossover might take place. If this goes on, buyers could gain more traction and push for a break above the range resistance.
Just the other week, the ECB decided to extend its QE program end-date to December 2017 even though they reduced the amount of monthly asset purchases for that extension period. This was viewed as an overall dovish move that would keep a lid on the euro’s gains.
However, the RBA could be mulling some additional easing itself since data from the Land Down Under has been disappointing lately. For one, the GDP report for Q3 printed a surprise contraction in growth. On the other hand, jobs data and underlying components of the trade balance indicated improvements.
Also, data from China has been mostly in line with expectations so demand for Australia’s raw material exports could be sustained. With that, the euro is still on weaker footing compared to the Aussie so the range could continue to hold.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USDJPY is still trending higher, moving above an ascending trend line on its 1-hour time frame and gearing up for a test of support. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% retracement level lines up with the trend line and 116.00 level.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. The 100 SMA lines up with the 50% Fib and appears to be holding as dynamic support while the 200 SMA is closer to the trend line and 61.8% Fib level.
Stochastic is heading north so USDJPY could follow suit, possibly making its way up to the swing high at 118.65 from here or all the way up to the 120.00 major psychological resistance.
The BOJ monetary policy statement is coming up and traders are expecting no changes in their quantitative easing program. Back in September, the BOJ already announced its decision to shift from aiming for 2% inflation to targeting the yield curve so any details on how they plan to achieve this could weigh on the yen.
Meanwhile, the FOMC just hiked interest rates by 0.25% and projected three more increases for next year, keeping fundamentals in favor of the US dollar. Data from the US was weaker than expected yesterday, as the flash services PMI posted a surprise decline, but Fed Chairperson Yellen had a few more upbeat remarks on the labor market.
Remaining releases from the US economy this week are the new home sales and final GDP reading for Q3. Another batch of upbeat readings could lead to more gains for the dollar. No other reports are due from Japan for the next few days.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURAUD has been trending lower on its 1-hour chart, moving inside a descending channel connecting the latest highs and lows. Price just bounced off the channel resistance at the 1.440 major psychological level and could head back to support near 1.4100.
However, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that another test of resistance could be in order or that the pair could push for an upside breakout.*
Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions and is turning higher, also suggesting that buyers could take control of price action. A move past the channel resistance could lead to a climb to the next ceiling at the 1.4500-1.4550 area.
Investor confidence in the euro zone has taken a dip after the recent terror attacks in Germany, Turkey and Switzerland. Aside from that, Italy’s banking sector troubles are still in the spotlight as the government might need to bail out its largest banks. To top it off, the ECB’s decision to extend its QE program to December 2017 could further dampen the euro’s gains.
As for the Australian dollar, tensions between China and the US have weighed on the commodity currency, even as the former already returned the latter’s drone it seized from the South China Sea. Expectations of weaker commodity prices and business activity down the line, stemming from the Fed’s tightening moves, are also dragging the higher-yielding currency down.
Data from Australia has been slightly weaker than expected, as the MI leading index printed a flat reading, down from the earlier 0.1% uptick. The RBA minutes expressed some concern about the currency’s gains and its impact on local inflation and export growth.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
AUDNZD formed lower highs and found support at the 1.0400 major psychological level, creating a descending triangle visible on its 1-hour chart. Price is on its way to test the bottom of the triangle and might be due for a bounce.
However, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This suggests that a breakdown could happen and take the pair lower by around 300 pips or the same height as the chart formation. In addition, the moving averages line up with the triangle resistance, adding to its strength as a ceiling.
Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions, which means that sellers are already tired and could allow buyers to regain control of price action. A break higher could lead to a 300-pip rally as well.
There were no reports from both Australia and New Zealand last Friday but economic reports have been stronger for the latter earlier in the week. New Zealand printed a stronger than expected GDP reading of 1.1% for Q3 versus the projected 0.8% growth figure.
In addition, RBNZ head Wheeler recently confirmed that they have no plans of lowering rates further anytime soon. He also hinted that they’re no longer as concerned about a strong Kiwi as they used to be.
On the other hand, the RBA minutes still noted that the appreciating AUD could complicate the transition going on in the economy. This suggests that the Australian central bank might continue to jawbone or even consider lowering interest rates in the future. Apart from that, the US-China tensions have been weighing on sentiment for the world’s second largest economy and Australia’s top trade partner.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
NZDJPY broke past the long-term resistance at the 78.00 handle a couple of months back before staging a steady ascent to 83.50. Price seems to be struggling to keep up its climb from here so a pullback might be due.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% retracement level lines up with the broken range resistance, which might now hold as support. The 100 SMA just crossed above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside and that the uptrend could resume at some point.
Stochastic is still heading lower so price could follow suit. However, the oscillator is already dipping into the oversold area so sellers might need to take a break and let buyers take over. Once stochastic turns up from the oversold area, bullish pressure could be revived.
Economic data from Japan all came in weaker than expected, signaling that the BOJ might need to ramp up its stimulus efforts in order to boost growth and inflation. Household spending sank 1.5% on a year-over-year basis instead of posting the projected 0.2% uptick while the unemployment rate rose from 3.0% to 3.1%.
Deflation is still a concern in Japan, with the Tokyo national core CPI printing a 0.6% drop versus the projected 0.4% decline in price levels. National core CPI is down 0.4% versus the estimated 0.3% dip. The BOJ core CPI and Japanese housing starts data are lined up next.
In contrast, New Zealand recently printed a stronger than expected GDP figure of 1.1% versus the 0.8% consensus. However, tensions in the Asian region between China and Taiwan are currently dampening investor sentiment for commodities.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USDCAD is still moving inside an ascending channel on its daily time frame but is closing in on the resistance around the 1.3600 major psychological mark. If this area keeps gains in check, price could head back to the channel support.
Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions, which suggests that bullish momentum is exhausted and that sellers could take over as buyers book profits. RSI is still heading up so there may be some potential gains left but the oscillator is nearing the overbought region as well.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Also, the 100 SMA is near the channel support at the 1.3250-1.3300 level, adding to its strength as a floor.
Economic reports from the US came in stronger than expected as markets reopened yesterday. The CB consumer confidence index rose from an upgraded 109.4 reading to 113.7 versus the 108.9 consensus while the Richmond manufacturing index improved from 4 to 8, outpacing the estimate at 5.
Canadian banks were still closed for the holiday yesterday and there were no reports to boost the Loonie. There are still no reports due from Canada today while the US has its pending home sales report on tap. Meanwhile, crude oil price action could influence the positively-correlated Loonie for the time being, and a bit of risk aversion in the markets is weighing on the higher-yielding currency.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURCAD recently broke below the support around the 1.4350 minor psychological level and reached a low of 1.3800 before pulling back up. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 38.2% level lines up with the broken support, which might now hold as resistance.
The 100 SMA just crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. These moving averages are closer to the 50% Fib, which might also serve as a ceiling.
Stochastic is still on the move up to show that buyers are in control of price action for now. Once the oscillator reaches the overbought zone and turns lower, selling pressure could return and push EURCAD to the previous lows.
There have been no reports from both the euro zone and Canada recently, as price action seems to have taken its cue from the updates in the Italian banking crisis and crude oil movements. However, the Loonie seems to be shrugging off recent gains in the commodity as traders still have doubts that the OPEC deal would be effective.
Only low-tier reports are lined up from the euro zone today, and these are data on private loans, M3 money supply, and the Italian 10-year bond auction which might provide some insight on the country’s finances.
There are no reports lined up from Canada today so Loonie traders could continue to take their cue from oil prices or risk sentiment. So far, it seems as though higher-yielding currencies have been on the back foot as traders prefer safe-havens.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURJPY has been trading sideways recently, finding support at the 121.70 area and resistance at 123.75. Price just bounced off the resistance and is on its way towards support or at least until the middle of the range where the moving averages are located.
The 100 SMA seems to be crossing above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that EURJPY could bounce off the mid-channel area of interest at 122.50 before heading back up to the resistance.
Stochastic is in the oversold area and is starting to turn higher, possibly indicating a return in bullish pressure. If buyers are strong enough, they could push for a break of the ceiling and a rally of around 200 pips or the same height as the range formation.
Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the top euro zone economies today and strong improvements could lead to more gains for the shared currency. Not much gains are expected from Germany and France, but Spain and Italy could show increases.
Japanese banks are closed for the holiday so the thin liquidity could limit any moves from yen pairs. Then again, this low liquidity environment could be grounds for volatile action if there are strong catalysts.
Japanese banks will still be closed tomorrow so this situation could persist until then, leaving yen pairs sensitive to market sentiment. Over the weekend, China reported a dip in their manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs so risk appetite could be weak.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
NZDUSD has been trending lower on its 4-hour time frame, moving inside a descending channel connecting its latest highs and lows. Price is currently testing the channel support and could be due for a pullback to the resistance, which lines up with the .7100 major psychological level.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the channel resistance. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. These moving averages, which might hold as dynamic resistance, are closer to the 38.2% Fib at the .7000 handle.
Stochastic is on the move up to show that buyers are taking control of price action. This confirms that a pullback from the recent selloff might be due until the oscillator reaches the overbought zone and turns lower.
US banks will reopen after the holiday today so another round of dollar rallies is expected. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is up for release and a climb from 53.2 to 53.7 is eyed, indicating a faster pace of industry expansion. More importantly, traders will look at the jobs component to have an idea of how Friday’s NFP release might fare.
The NFP report is expected to show a 175K increase in hiring for December, slower than the earlier 178K gain. Still, this might be enough to assure market watchers that the Fed will be on track towards hiking interest rates a few more times this year. If not, the dollar could retreat against its counterparts unless the FOMC minutes due midweek give the currency a fresh boost.
New Zealand will hold its bi-weekly GDT auction and a rebound in dairy prices could mean renewed Kiwi strength. Earlier today, the Caixin manufacturing PMI printed a gain from 50.9 to 51.9 for China so this could keep risk-taking in play.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
GBPJPY has previously been on an uptrend but it looks like bulls are tired from the climb. A head and shoulders pattern can be seen forming on its 4-hour time frame, although the right shoulder is still being completed. Price seems to have found resistance at an area of interest around the 145.00 major psychological level and could be due to test the neckline at 142.50-143.00.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA on this time frame, though, so the path of least resistance is still to the upside. However, the gap between the moving averages seems to be narrowing so a downward crossover could be due, possibly drawing sellers to the mix.
Stochastic is heading south so price could follow suit as sellers take control of price action while buyers are taking a break. Once the oscillator hits the oversold region, bulls could get back in the game and trigger a bounce off the neckline support. If that area breaks, price could fall by around 500 pips or the same height as the chart formation.
Economic data from Japan was slightly stronger than expected, as the final manufacturing PMI was upgraded from 51.9 to 52.4 instead of being unchanged as expected. Japanese banks are also set to reopen today so higher liquidity could come into play.
As for the UK, the manufacturing PMI also beat expectations by rising from 53.6 to 56.1, higher than the consensus at 53.3. This reflects a stronger pace of industry growth instead of the estimated slowdown.
Up ahead, UK construction PMI is due and a dip from 52.8 to 52.6 is expected. A stronger than expected read could result to a few gains for the pound but traders are likely paying closer attention to the services PMI due on Thursday. The FOMC minutes out today could also have an impact on yen pairs’ movement.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
GBPUSD has been selling off recently but a reversal pattern has formed on its 1-hour time frame. Price failed in its last two attempts to break below the 1.2200 major psychological level, creating a double bottom with a neckline around 1.2380.
The 100 SMA just crossed above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that an upside breakout and rally might ensue, taking the pair up by around 200 pips or the same height as the chart formation.
However, stochastic is heading south from the overbought zone to suggest that sellers are taking control of price action. In that case, it’s still possible for the neckline to keep gains in check and push for another test of the bottoms.
Economic data from the UK has been upbeat so far, with both manufacturing and construction PMI printing stronger than expected results. The services PMI is due today and analysts are expecting to see a fall from 55.2 to 54.8 to reflect a slower pace of industry expansion.
In the US, the FOMC meeting minutes revealed that policymakers were split in terms of pursuing a faster pace of rate hikes and gradually tightening monetary policy. Among the concerns on the table were Trump’s fiscal policies, inflation trends, and the consistent improvements in the labor market.
Up ahead, the attention turns to the NFP report due on Friday, as traders will see a round of leading jobs indicators from the US today. The ADP non-farm employment change report is expected to post a 171K increase in hiring, down from the earlier 216K gain. Of particular interest will be the jobs component of the ISM non-manufacturing PMI as well.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
EURGBP has formed higher lows on its 1-hour chart and is testing resistance at the .8575, creating an ascending triangle formation. Price is approaching the peak of the triangle so a breakout in either direction might be due soon, taking price by around 150-200 pips higher or lower, which is the same height as the chart pattern.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, the moving averages still seem to be oscillating so range-bound action could stay in play.
Stochastic is turning higher to show that buyers are trying to regain control of price action. But if the oscillator reaches the overbought region and turns lower, sellers could take over and push for another test of support at .8450.
Economic data from the euro zone has been mostly stronger than expected this week, particularly when it comes to flash CPI readings for the region. Also, manufacturing and services PMI readings from its top economies have surpassed expectations and some were even revised higher.
UK reports have also come in better than consensus, which explains the current consolidation for the pair. Manufacturing, construction, and services PMI readings have printed surprise gains, reflecting the economy’s resilience despite Brexit uncertainties.
German factory orders and retail sales data are lined up today and another batch of strong readings could mean more gains for the shared currency. There are no major reports lined up from the UK today so the pound might be sensitive to country-specific moves.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
