AUDUSD has been trending lower on its 1-hour time frame, moving below a descending trend line connecting the latest highs of price action. Price is currently pulling back to this trend line, which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the latest swing high and low.
If this area keeps gains in check, price could head back south to the swing low at the .7500 major psychological level or create new lows. On the other hand, an upside breakout could trigger a reversal from the ongoing selloff.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. Also, the gap between the moving averages is getting wider so bearish pressure could get stronger. Stochastic is pointing up but is already testing the overbought region, which reflects weakening buying pressure and a potential return by sellers.
US data came in stronger than expected on Friday, as the economy added 235K jobs versus the projected 188K increase and the previous month’s gain, which was upgraded from 227K to 238K. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.8% to 4.7% as expected but average hourly earnings fell short of estimates and posted a meager 0.2% uptick instead of the projected 0.3% increase.
Still, the upbeat jobs report boosted Fed rate hike expectations for the month, and the actual FOMC meeting is scheduled for this week. Fed officials are strongly expected to hike rates by 0.25% and signal scope for further tightening down the line, keeping them on track towards hiking rates three times this year.
Meanwhile, China has its industrial production figures due and this could have a strong impact on AUD price action. Later on in the week, Australia will release its jobs figures and downbeat results could push the currency back on its downtrend.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]