Hi David thanks for this thread as well as all the useful information/charts/analysis that you are posting. it is really appreciated from myself personally so thank you again, i will be following this thread very closely!
Regards
Shahab Saiyed
Athena,
Can you comment on your attachment? What do the different lines & numbers represent? Thank you.
100% correct simondav.
The top left of the chart shows currencies names and colors (NOT currency pairs)
The green line is the yen. For example, you can see that the market bought and bought again the yen starting around 11:00 (swiss time)
By the end of the day, the global force of the market was > 19 and the yen was > 5 (more that 25%)
You can point out when the pro money has entered the market and when the retail traders have followed (and were late)
Much money left the euro area to join the usd and jpy areas.
Hey David,
If I may, Iād like to offer a few thoughts. Iāve seen several other pro traders come here with the best intentions, just like you. At first everything goes really well, but when the crowd here begins to catch on that thereās someone here who has valuable skills and willingness to share, what happens next is that the pro trader is drowned in PMs and emails and Skype requests and posts asking this and that.
Sadly, the next phase is that the pro trader finds he/she cannot handle all the people who want to ask this and that, and the story ends with the pro trader, very understandably, disappearing from the forum.
It seems like this same story is now starting to happen to you David. While I have no real advice on what you should do, I would suggest to you that you keep people at arms length and remember that youāre here because you find it fun. Donāt let the eager learners drag you down.
Remember thereās no law that says you have to answer every PM etc.
Those were my 2 cents, hope they may help you.
David, does the area of the BB Zone make sense? Am in doubt cause it is really far away from the MA lines.
Sorry for the snapshot, that looks horrible. That is fiber and the area is the 50% - 23.6% fib of the last swing. The red line is the MA100 and yellow MA200.
Edit: Managed to put up a link which should show the full size
How do you guys upload clearer snapshots?
http://www4.picturepush.com/photo/a/8792697/img/8792697.jpg
Looks like youāre showing a chart with the cluster indicators for MT4. These have no predictive power at all but are pretty to look at in hindsight. Let me assure you they have nothing to do with what this thread is about.
Theoretical Basis of Building Cluster Indicators for FOREX - MQL4 Articles
Practical Application of Cluster Indicators in FOREX - MQL4 Articles
This is the NZD/USD chart from an order flow perspective as reported from my contacts.
The offers ahead of the barrier would have been large to protect the barrier. As price declines it start to pick up buying interest at various levels.
These bids and offers are from various sources/banks/funds/corporates ect ect ectā¦ there not from just the one source. Each with their own agenda.
Its to early to be drawing zones, as the over night session is still to take shape/market open.
First indications based on your chart, I would say your a little out from what I can make outā¦ hard to see your chart.
If I were to trade the over night session my zone would be around 1.2213-1.2255ā¦ but as I say, its best to see what happens and let the market perform its action tonight and re-assess in morning UK for the new week.
I realise that the charts are likely to change a lot before London open but thought I would have a crack at placing B/B zones on GPB/JPY and GBP/USD.
Please if anyone notices some obvious errors in my thinking/logic then please let me know
GBP/USD D1 chart, MA pretty flat, seems to be ranging a bit, should this be a keep clear sign or use the latest price action showing buy? Marked up some S/R areas.
GBP/USD H1 marked up fibs using swings from the last few days, 100 MA seems to be hitting area where price has recently been affected and between the 50 - 61 fib level which I take as B/B zone. Looks like price has already blasted through this and is sitting below 100 MA so will be looking for re-trace and rejection on the 15M.
GBP/JPY D1. Again price seems to be ranging a bit.
GBP/JPY H1. Price here seems to be ranging a bit as well but with a slight lean towards sell, marked up fibs and 100MA/PA disruption seems to occur between 38-23 levels which will be my B/B zone, will look for rice to retrace, test and bounce away from this level.
hi david, yes i understand you use various sources, and from the NU it looks quite powerful info too! now i understand why some people are trading just off orderflow.
No this a [B]proprietary tool[/B]. You will find no one with this.
I created the source code for large servers and a light version that you can see.
The purpose is not the predictive power. The purpose is to know where the money is, what to trade potentially (not only spot).
You can trade whatever you would like but it was not a good idea to sell some yen on friday,
Ah, ok. Well it seemed similar at a glance.
Anyway, since it is a proprietary tool itās not really going to useful to anyone but you. And Iām sure I need not remind you what happens to people trying to plug their products hereā¦
Iāll give it another go in the morning then and post to get some feedback. Will make sure to use a link instead of snapshot so that it is a bit clearer for everyone. Am finding it a bit difficult to draw the BB zone as it seems to be a bit subjective. I guess you gave importance to the technical resistance of the low of 11/7 and 18/7 and in that region to come to the conclusion of 1.2213-1.2255?
agree, if anyone wants a free correlator go see NVP on t2w. end of.
The most important aspect to making decisions intra-day using what I teach (based on technicals only) here is the 100-200 SMAās.
The BBZone and corrections zones are for trying to establish where the most optimal money zones will be situated.
To clear some things upā¦
The 100 sma is used to define direction and anticipate potential moves. Price crossing below or above the 100 sma DOES NOT mean that its a buy or sell or the bias is changing, it is an early detection that there is a possible shift in bias pending.
The price action that takes shape after the cross will be what tells you if the anticipated change is for real or fake on the on the 1 hour chart and daily chart.
If I see price attack the 100 sma and price action holds above it, then the bias is still favored with the bulls. If I see price break belowā¦ and more importantly hold/stay/sustain below, then I can anticipate a change in the bias, and if I want to be aggressive then I can find an entry to get shortā¦ the bias now favors the bears, but they are not in full control, the momentum is with them, but they will only gain full control if they can then move and sustain a move below the 200 sma.
Other way round for the bulls!
So once againā¦ price crossing the 100 sma above/below DOES NOT mean there is a bias change nor does it mean its a signal to go long or short. Its the price action that happens after the cross or re-cross, or failed cross, that will determine if the pending bias shift is valid or not. Once confirmed, the momentum will be on the side of who to charge of the market. Full control will be confirmed once the 200 sma is taken out and held with the favored bias.
It doe not mean squid which MA is above or below the otherā¦ the only thing that matters when using price with the MA;s, is price above below the MAās and what price action is taking shape.
BBZones and correction zones are then added to help identify money zones. But the price/MAās are the most important aspectā¦ and yes, one can trad purely just that way.
Practice this point first, then practice it some more.
Iāve been doing quite a bit of research into the order flow aspect as I find it to be a big part of this analysis.
I am trialing several options, including IFR, Trade the News, MNI FX Bullet Points, and I am still waiting on a few trials to be activated.
One service in particular has caught my eye although it may or may not be a quality service, it seems a little hypey to me, so I would like to know if anyone here has had any prior experience with them and what the collective thought isā¦
The service is called OrderBookFX
If you have used them or have any info, please share.
I am hoping to have a trial activated on Monday so I can give it a spin.
Updates forthcoming.
Thanks
Charles
Looking forward to your updates. The big question is where/who do they get their data from as spot fx has no central exchange.
Hi David,
A bit of topic, but im wondering if there are traders at the big banks that trade the fx futures or are the majority of bids/offers, computers following the spot price? For instance lets say germany announces that they plan to leave the euro and you sell the futures market, more often than no,t bids will come in aggressively for the first couple of seconds before giving way. i always took that as a sign that the majority of size are comps that act when futures price moves to quickly away from fair value.
It will be interesting to know the reality.