In the pre-opening, the European markets negotiated in different directions. The main theme of the day is the US Federal Reserve meeting, but whose outcome will only be known after European markets close. However, political developments in Europe will continue to be in the spotlight. With regard to the United Kingdom, the leader of the DUP, the Irish unionist party that Theresa May counts on to guarantee the parliamentary majority, said yesterday that the negotiations are “going well” and there should be an agreement “sooner rather than later.” The BBC also said that the agreement could be sealed today. In terms of business, the Spanish company Inditex today presented its results for the first quarter of the year. Net income rose 18% to 654 M. €, in line with analysts’ estimates. Sales were slightly above expectations (€ 5569 M.) and EBITDA stood at € 1113 M., against the expected € 1103 M. €. In terms of economic indicators, industrial production relative to the Euro Zone will be published.
US stocks dropped while the dollar advanced as traders digested the more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. The British pound swung to a gain after a split among policy makers over the path of interest rates unexpectedly deepened. The Fed raised interest rates for the second time in 2017 and Chair Janet Yellen suggested the strength of the U.S. labor market will ultimately prevail over recent weakness in inflation.
In the pre-opening, the European markets negotiated in positive territory. The influence of the markets should be the agreement on Greece, while political developments, especially in France, should return to attract attention, since on Sunday is the second round of the elections to Parliament. Meanwhile, oil prices are close to the low of the last six months, in the face of continued fears of over-production and despite OPEC’s efforts to reduce supply. The final estimate of inflation in the Euro Zone for May will be published today, which should confirm a correction of 1.90% to 1.40%, due to the general fall in prices in the main countries of the region. It should be recalled that price behavior will be decisive in shaping market expectations regarding the ECB’s monetary policy.
Oil dropped to the lowest level in seven months, pulling energy stocks down, amid growing concerns that OPEC-led output cuts are failing to ease a global supply glut.
After a long wait, Chinese equities will finally be part of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Thus, 222 listed companies in China will integrate this index which is the benchmark for many international fund managers. It is important to note that China already had a weight (26%) in the MSCI Emerging Markets through companies listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
The European stock indexes ended without major fluctuations, although they traded most of the day in negative territory.
Attention will now be focused on the behavior of oil and developments in Washington regarding the discussion of the new health system law.
Asian markets closed higher, led by oil companies. In addition, there was a purchase of the sectors that had been penalized the most last week. It should be noted that several markets, such as Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, India and the Philippines, were closed because of the end of Ramadan.
Asian markets do not present a common trend. Unlike yesterday, the appreciation of oil could not trigger a sustainable rise.
Hedge funds have in recent weeks accumulated selling positions (supposedly equivalent to 162 million barrels) and have been one of the main causes of the fall in crude.
Oil has prolonged its recent rise, even in the face of the release of energy reserves by the Department of Energy. Oil stocks increased by 118,000 barrels last week, compared to forecasts of a drop of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 894 thousand barrels, compared to an expected decrease of about 288 thousand barrels. From a technical point of view, Brent is faced with a zone of resistance formed by the 48.33 / 49.15 levels.
Yesterday, the DAX broke the support formed by the area of 12490/12500, which constituted a relevant short / medium technical barrier. It is important to emphasize that in the last 12 months, the stock markets have not suffered any corrections worth noting. The only falls that deserve mention were the ones that followed Brexit and the election of Donald Trump but lasted only a few hours. So if S & P, which we consider to be the leading index of world markets, start trading below 2419 then the likelihood of a larger correction than witnessed in recent months will begin to be significant.
Asian markets closed with contained variance, despite the positive news coming from the Chinese economy. In June, the Caixin PMI index reached 50.4, above the estimated 49.4 and 50.0, which separates a cycle of expansion from a contraction cycle. Unlike the official PMI index prepared by the state authorities, the Caixin PMI index, calculated by a private institution, is compiled through surveys of small and medium private enterprises. These companies are more representative of the more dynamic areas of the Chinese economy than the large state-owned enterprises, which are at the heart of the official PMI index.
Gold is at a critical level and is about to test the 200 week moving average, the last stand of the bulls, plus it is also aligned with the upward trend line.
During the past month, car sales in the US fell 3%, being the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Sales of Fiat Chrysler fell 7.40%, Ford’s 5%, General Motors 4.70% and those of Korea’s Hyundai-Kia decreased 15%. On the contrary, sales of Nissan, Toyota and Honda showed slight increases in sales, although these were not enough to offset the falls in Detroit (which remains the heart of the American automotive industry). Volkswagen sales grew 11% year-on-year, when the level of sales was very low, although this increase fell short of estimates.
Asian markets closed mostly with modest losses. The fall of oil and the rise of yields in most of the countries of this region. In Japan, 30-year yields peaked in the last 4 months (0.883%). However, the political situation on the Korean peninsula continues to generate some concern. Following the launch of a supposedly intercontinental missile by North Korea, the US and South Korea carried out several exercises that involved the launching of missiles, and the US ambassador to the UN admitted using force to stop North Korea’s nuclear program.
Asian markets closed with contained losses, with the exception of the Shanghai stock exchange which ended in a slight rise. The fall of oil and the rise in yields were the themes of the session. In Japan, news circulated that the Central Bank intervened in the debt market, acquiring bonds, in order to halt the sharp rise in yields.
The debt market has been driven by a rise in state yields, caused by the words of the Fed and ECB members. Interestingly, at this stage of the market, European yields seem to be influencing American ones, not the other way round, as is usually the case.
In the pre-opening, the European indices traded with contained variations. Although the sentiment is relatively neutral, signals from the debt market are somewhat worrisome. German bond yields were trading above 0.60%, prolonging the rise initiated after the break of the 0.50% technical barrier. Now, institutional investors are carefully monitoring Italian 10-year yields, which trade today at 2.29%.
The effects of Janet Yellen’s words continued until the opening of the European session, which was moderately positive. If European equities could continue to benefit from the greater risk appetite of investors, this effect seems to have faded in the debt market. Following yesterday’s intervention by Janet Yellen, European bond yields, as well as their US counterparts, fell back. However, a part of this retreat was lost in the first minutes of today’s session. While German yields remain at levels above 0.50%, investors will continue to monitor, with concern, the behavior of interest rates in Europe.