European markets ended the first day of what will be (according to some economists) the most important week of the year. After falling last week, the Italian stock market led the gains, with a valuation of 3.43%. The new Italian Finance Minister has stated in an interview, with Corriere della Sera, that a departure from his country of the Euro is not being studied and that the Government of Rome will combat any deterioration of the economy that could give rise to such a scenario. As a result, the banking sector was among the best performers, with investors waiting for the FED decision scheduled for Wednesday and the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday.
The meeting between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ended with the signing of a cooperation agreement between the two countries. Details of this understanding have yet to be announced. It is important to remember that the agreement reached today is the first and important step in a process of normalization of relations between the USA and North Korea and of that country with its southern neighbor. It is crucial to understand today’s meeting as an integral part of a process that should be long and susceptible to setbacks: 64 years of tensions do not end in a single day.
European markets were trading higher, with the market waiting for the FED (today) and ECB (tomorrow’s agenda) meetings. In sectoral terms, technology companies and raw material producers led the gains, with valuations higher than 1%, while the telecommunications sector led the losses. In retail, Inditex securities reacted with a valuation of around 3% to the publication of its quarterly results: the net result reached 668 M. € vs. 643 M. € forecast. However, sales, a key variable in a retailer, reached 5654 M. € vs. 5820 M. € estimated. Gross margin gains offset lower-than-expected sales. Oil prices rose a day after OPEC said oil prospects in the second half of 2018 were highly uncertain and warned of falling demand.
European stock markets ended lower, with investors opting for some profit taking after yesterday’s gains triggered by the ECB’s meeting. Leading the losses were the banks and the producers of raw materials, the latter still reflecting the economic data revealed yesterday by China and the news about the new customs tariffs announced by Trump. On the other hand, other stocks, for more specific reasons, stood out positively. Rolls Royce rose more than 9 percent after announcing a plan to settle the company’s accounts, which includes cutting 4600 jobs. In retail, Tesco gained ground, having reported sales for the first quarter in line with forecasts and confirmed its outlook. On the contrary, in Stockholm, H&M retailer titles were under pressure, after the company reported quarterly sales below estimates. On the macroeconomic level, and after the ECB’s statement yesterday, Eurostat said today that the inflation rate in the Euro Zone rose from 1.30% in April to 1.90% in May, the highest level since April of the year past.
The first day of the week was negative for the European stock markets, justified by the negative sentiment that Donald Trump’s announcement on the imposition of new customs duties against China. The automakers led the losses. Shares of Volkswagen fell 3.63% after news of the arrest of Audi executive director Rupert Stadler. The oil sector was the only sector to end up on the day the oil price mirrored a recovery in international markets. In Frankfurt, Thyssen Krupp depreciated 2.17%. The main shareholders of the German company were against the proposal of the administration to merge its steel production activity with India’s Tata Steel.
The escalation of fears and doubts about a possible US-China trade war put pressure on European markets. Remember that the US President threatened to impose a tariff of 10% over 200 000 M.USD on Chinese products, which can later have significant consequences on global production and trade. The producers of raw materials, particularly the mining companies, responded with heavy losses, with the respective sector falling more than 2%. In addition, the oil issue also provided a less comfortable environment for investors. However, the price of oil traded on a downward trajectory, just days before the OPEC meeting.
The European indices began trying to start a technical recovery after two days of selling pressure. Investors will remain vigilant regarding any news, rumor or tweet associated with US trade tensions with its major partners. The attention of investors should be momentarily diverted from issues related to the specter of a trade war and directed towards Sintra. In this Portuguese city, the ECB Annual Forum is taking place and will have its high point today: a roundtable meeting with the Presidents of the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Technically, the DAX has an important support zone in the 12550/12600. An initial recovery from this zone can not be ruled out but European markets are vulnerable to a potential shortage.
European markets traded lower, with investors waiting for the OPEC meeting that starts tomorrow. In the international markets, and in face of this event, the price of oil negotiated on a downward trajectory. The banking sector was one of the worst performers of the session.On the positive side was the utility EDF that appreciated, with the speculation that appeared in the market regarding a possible spin-off of the renewable energy and nuclear energy businesses. In the automotive sector, Daimler was penalized for reporting that it reduced its profit estimates for 2018 as a result of current global trade tensions. The Bank of England left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, as predicted by economists, although the number of economists advocating a further increase in interest rates is increasing.
At the macroeconomic level and somewhat surprisingly, the PMI for economic activity (manufacturing and services) improved in June from 54.1 to 54.8.
Trade tensions between the US and China have remained at the center of attention. On Sunday, President Trump sent out a tweet inviting all US trade partners to abandon their protectionist practices under pain of a similar move by the US.
Most European stock exchanges traded slightly lower today, prolonging fears of trade tensions between the US and China. However, raw material producers, one of the most affected sectors recently, have recovered, having led the gains. The automotive sector has presented a contained valuation, after the recent news. Other more specific news also marked the session. British supermarket chain Sainsbury fell by more than 2 percent after industry data showed sales fell in the last three months while other competitors showed higher sales.
European stock exchanges reversed the initial downward trend, because of news about the US. Most of the sectors followed this behavior, with the exception of the banking that was kept pressed. Leading the gains was the energy sector, fueled by news that the United States will have required all countries to fully halt their imports of Iranian oil by November 4 if they want to avoid US sanctions, reinstated after Washington’s withdrawal from the agreement with Tehran. The price of oil rose more than 2% in international markets. In Italy, Saipem rose more than 5%, in Amsterdam Royal Dutch Shell rose 2.48% and in London BP advanced about 3%.
According to Reuters, US officials have said the US government will use an improved security review process to deal with China’s investment threats to acquire US technology instead of imposing specific restrictions.
In the pre-opening, the European indexes rehearsed in descending trajectory, before the return of worries with the global commerce. The US government said yesterday that the Foreign Investment Committee will evaluate US technology or state-of-the-art technology acquisitions by companies with more than 25% Chinese capital. The oil sector will continue to be monitored by investors, after the recent oil price has seen gains in international markets.
Last Friday, european markets traded higher on a day marked by lower than usual liquidity, a trend that marked the week. Some more specific news has boosted their respective sectors, and sentiment is still conditioned by the current trade tensions between the US and its main partners. The Euro appreciated against the Dollar, in view of the agreement reached by the leaders of the European Union on the issue of migration. Producers of raw materials led the gains. Anglo American said it expects results for the first six months of the year to be at least 20% higher than in the same period last year. The mining company rose more than 4%. In terms of economic indicators, Eurostat reported that the inflation rate in the Eurozone increased from 1.90% in May to 2% in June.
On July 6, the new tariffs on Chinese products amounting to 34,000 M.USD are being levied, and Beijing is expected to retaliate.
The agreement reached by Angela Merkel and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer to resolve the political crisis around migration has boosted European markets and especially the German stock market.
On the macroeconomic front in Germany, the PMI index for the services sector rose in June to 54.10, the highest level in the last 4 months. In the Euro Zone, the PMI economic activity index rose from 54.10 in May to 54.9 in June.
Reuters reported that the US ambassador to Germany would have informed those in charge of some of the major automakers such as BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen that Donald Trump could abandon the threats issued last month if the EU eliminated taxes on imported cars from the USA. Remember that the US president threatened last month to impose a 20% import tariff on all vehicles manufactured in the EU.
The employment report showed that the US economy created 213,000 jobs in June, up from 195,000 expected by economists. However, the unemployment rate worsened from 3.80% to 4%, compared to the maintenance estimates for the previous month. In relation to average hourly wages, there was an annual increase of 2.70%, lower than the expected 2.80%.
European markets ended today’s session on positive territory. Concerns about trade tensions between the US and China softened slightly, allowing raw material producers to overperformance. In London, the market traded higher (0.95%) following the Brexit Minister’s resignation request, David Davis, and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson.