Hi B2 - I just loaded onto E/U and it loaded correctly but when I tried G/U and others it did not load. Is it restricted to one’
at a time or do I need to change something?
Tom
You should be able to attach the EA to any pair (incl. USDCHF, EURGBP, etc); no restrictions at all.
I have picked up a bug with brokers who have 10 pip min stops. Will release a new version this weekend if I get a chance. Will also backtest/optimize for 5/10 years with 90% modelling quality and 0 mismatched chart errors.
80 pip spike on EURUSD! This is why I hate big stops.
re: stops. it is easy to program a variable stop-loss on the spreadsheet and change 'em around to see what works best. the problem i have with that is probably unique to spreadsheet studies using daily data and won’t matter so much if we get a working ea.
let’s take an example using gbp/jpy. if we use a -50 stop loss instead of -200, it certainly looks better on the spreadsheet results and feels a lot less risky, but it leaves an open question. if we go long the gbp/jpy at 122.50 and set a stop-loss at -50, our exit is 122.00. but, looking at the low for that day, we can see that the low was less than that exit point. so, our stop would have been taken out if that low came after our entry. if it came before our entry and another low did not occur, then we would have stayed alive in the trade and gone to close.
daily data cannot tell us where the low came, before or after our entry. so, our spreadsheet improves with lowering stops, but how many of those were actually stopped out prior to the trade ending up profitable or, at least, in less of a loss. those profits and lesser losses show up in our spreadsheets, but are not accurately representative of what happened to price action that day.
on balance, is it safe for us to suppose that, at least most days, that low would have printed before our entry, so our spreadsheet results may still have a percentage of validity?
allow me to continue with the thought above because i certainly share the wish that we could use closer stops. it is gut-wrenching to see prices move just enough to take us a direction, then reverse to serious losses.
looking back at june, gbp/jpy. on the 1st, we had a short trade entered at 120.12. taking it to close resulted in +9. however, after we entered, prices moved to a high of 120.81. that is 69 pips difference between our entry and a subsequent high. the only way the trade would have been contained and permitted to go to close was with a stop-loss greater than 69.
on june 5, we entered a buy at 120.66. going to close resulted in +44. but, with a tighter stop-loss, we didn’t get to go to close because there was a subsequent low of 119.73. the only stop-loss that would have contained this trade and allow it to go to close would be 94 or more.
7th, entered buy at 122.97, going to close resulted in +72, but intervening low of 122.29 would have required a minimum stop-loss of 69.
we are going to see a lot of these. perhaps so many that our spreadsheet results bear no resemblance to reality.
Hi Pipwoof,
Im a newbie at all this , but I love the simplicity. Ive used it on my demo account for a few days , with a slight twist ,
Ive used a basket of 12 pairs and when the overall profit is 50 pips [why be greedy] I exit. The reasoning behind this is that it relies on the impetus of breaking yesterdays highs/lows but perhaps wont last till the end of the day.
So far results have been 100% I thank you so much for this system. I can`t believe it will fail.
Peter
Hi Peter,
Wow…let me see if I understand correctly. You are simultaneously trading 12 currency pairs? With just a 100 pip SL on each pair and placing orders both high and low gives you an initial 2400 to 50 (48 to 1) risk to reward ratio! :51: Good luck with that. …
Att Bobcat
Thankyou for your interest and good wishes.
I never was very good at maths at school. Nevertheless I think you make assumptions that do not hold up
By saying my odds are 48 to one is acting as if my 12 pairs are one pair, in real life the chances of them all behaving the same is remote , its abit like saying there is every chance of 48 heads or tales in a row.
I didnt expect in all honesty a response to my remarks, so didnt detail exactly what I did. I back tracked
4 currencies for 6 months using a stop loss of 25 and adding 25 to the total required for each loss.Not hedging just going with the first one to comply. I can only tell you there was not a single losing day, so although I have had my demo account for about a year, and have not found a system that really works, if this continues for one more week I shall go live.
Heres hoping for the best
BobKat - Are you in US? If so, then brokers do not allow hedging. With a 100 pip SL Hedging may come into play occasionally. How to handle? What happens if no SL - Have you tried it with that? Just trying to fine tune what is otherwise a fantastic strategy. I think we can make it happen for all of us!
Tom
Peter - the reply to BobKat should have gone to you. Sorry. Maby you can reply to mine.
Tom
peter, thank you for taking time to share your success. while i have an affinity for basket trading, your method is going to scare the bejesus out of some of us old-timers. i suppose the best advice is take it with a grain of salt and continue what you’re doing as long as it works.
years ago, i was part of a futures trading group in dallas. we all had different styles, but met to share ideas and be friends. there was one guy whose method was to optimize the living daylights out of every contract with every variable over the weekend, trade it during the week, and start all over. i’m talking a quarter mil account totally at risk. scared the rest of us beyond words. but, at last count, he was staying ahead of the wolf. as long as pips are going into the account, who am i to say anyone’s crazy?
please indulge my sense of humor with one final thought and trust that i don’t mean to be offensive, but when you say, “i can’t believe it will fail,” i think of those momentous words just before the titanic set sail…
peter, just to explore a little further. do i understand correctly that you are entering your trades on a break of the high or low of yesterday, as in Daybreak? that intrigues me because it implies that the entry method may have more winners than losers across a board of pairs.
so, let’s say that on a given day you have six pairs that break the low of yesterday and six that break the high. you are now long six and short six and you have found that the basket gets to +50 before it gets to a -50. again, that suggests that more pairs will go the direction of the breakout than not, thus, creating the profit for you.
how much of that have i understood and how much have i butchered?
no braggin’ rights today as we took another small loss:
g/j, no trade
a/u, no trade
e/u, short 1.2165, close 1.2239, -36
u/j, short 79.15, close 79.24, -9
total: -45
Hi Tom
I am based in the UK and my time to trade this system is from 9am GMT till my profit kicks in. I do not
believe in large stop losses on this, as I said to Bobcat it is based on momentum and impulse as it breaks the high or low of yesterday. If you let it go to 100 pip loss, the market has gone way out of line to what was anticipated.When it breaks through you expect it to carry on,at least for now 25 pips down is enough for
me to get out. By doing 12 , if a few let you down the others easily overcome the loss and give you a profit.
Bobcat criticized my risk reward, but if you follow the original you have no risk reward factored in, you just
hope that after it has broken through it stays that way. Id rather take the profit while its there. As to hedging with a 25 pip stoploss it doesnt apply.
Peter
Hi Pipwoof
I replied to Tom before I got your message. so its just to say it matters not how many are long or short as long as they continue in the direction they broke through. If a few let you down there are enough left to see you home . I set it up at 9am GMT and am invariably out by half an hour after the US open particularly if there. is any announcement of any import .
Yesterday could have been over 150 pips had I stayed in. Pehaps using a tight trailing stoploss would increase the profitability, it does seem a shame to let those lovely pips go to waste when they are racing.
I have been checking out all types of systems on my demo for about a year now,and I struggled manfully with Fibonacci and Elliott . so I havent jumped on this without serious thought I really believe youve cracked it.
I wonder what the odds were against the Titanic sinking ? If you wont accept odds like these in life you wont achieve much. Having said that Im glad I didnt have the choice.
Thanks again for what I`m sure is a real winner.
Peter
points taken and appreciated, peter. thank you for taking time to explain. regarding odds, you are absolutely right. if we never took a boat trip because the titanic might sink, we would be landbound for sure!
your line, “as long as they continue in they direction they broke through,” confirmed for me that you are taking prior day breakouts and entering in the direction of the break. i’m sure looking back was arduous as this doesn’t appear to be something that could easily be programmed for backtesting. i have done plenty of looking back by hand, eye, and f12 and will try to take at least a few weeks of trades to see what might have happened.
i share your problems with many traditional indicators, including elliot and fib, and have come to prefer avoiding indicators when possible. thank you for sharing your idea. best wishes for your continued success.
Hi peteroger,
Thank you for your clarification regarding how you are trading pipwoof’s strategy. I can’t help but draw a similarity to Orangeroshan’s SRDC I method (Daily Hi/Lo breakout). Orange trades the 3 amigos (GU, EU, AU) with a SL25 and TP5. He doesn’t use a basket goal but his disproportionate negative r/r is similar to yours.
Why do you use 09:00 GMT instead of 00:00 GMT? Is it because you reside in the UK and it’s more convenient for you?
Considering spread costs, I would surmise you would likely start out negative early in the trading day as your earliest orders become filled?
Which 4 currency pairs did you test? If those 4 pair were profitable without a loss for 6 months, why expand to 12 pairs?
Have you considered taking a larger collective profit, say +50 pips instead of +25 pips?
Have you considered trading fewer pairs as some of these pairs move essentially in the same direction (3 amigos for example)? I guess I would personally cull out pairs that perform least well, and perhaps those that trade very similarly in order to positively balance the portfolio. Perhaps you have already done that. If you can disclose the 12 pairs, I can run some different SL/TP scenarios to help define the best setup.
Anyway…I applaud you for thinking outside the box, but I am terrified about the huge negative r/r even taking into account the SL25. I realize the basket approach changes the risk dynamic…I just have to wrap my mind around it as being safe-enough to trade this way.
Good trading my friend! :35:
Hi Peter - Thanks for the reply. So, if I understand, you trade (or backtest) the Daybreak system using a “basket” approach with 12 currencies and if your total (all 12 total) is positive say 25 pips you get out of all and if your total is negative -25 pips you get out of all. I really like your approach to the Daybreak system as I like the Daybreak system period. I have traded a similar approach about a year ago with profit but like a lot of others I had to try other systems. I think I will stop here. Thanks for all you guys & gals input and thanks for the thread Pipwolf.
I am new to this thread and this trading strategy looks promising. It can generate more pips if we keep on trailing stop and locking pips. Will try this out for sure.
july 16, today we are:
g/j short @ 123.15
a/u short @ 1.0218
e/u short @ 1.2233
u/j short @ 79.00