When comparing results between daybreak vs triple threat, don’t we have to take in consideration that triple threat has 3x as many trades as does daybreak? Correct me if I am wrong, but in the above example, isn’t it a more fair comparison to say that daybreak made +108 pips vs triple threat +28.7 pips (86/3)?
This was not a statement undermining triple threat, as I believe it to be superior in profitability.
Once again, I thank you for all your hard effort at helping us all to become more profitable traders. :21:
bobkat, i appreciate all the support you’ve given these ideas. always good to see you here. you’re right, a comparison of the two is not appropriate as they are apples and oranges. i meant the reference to triple threat more as a report on how it’s doing, not really to compare. i assume there are some following this (daybreak) thread who are able to watch the markets and, from the looks of things, they should probably incorporate triple threat with daybreak. i would urge them to go on over and have a look.
btw, we have jdog and spirit apparently continuing to work on ea’s here and farruk working on one at triple threat. i will appreciate your input if you see something about those efforts. thanks.
Great job JDog!! Just wondering if you could add a feature that allows us to set a specific time to close any open trades (ie. end of day, or an hour before end of day, etc.) instead of running the trades through to S/L or T/P. I think this was the original idea of the Daybreak system. I was also wondering about the option to have a trailing stop (maybe after S/L has moved to breakeven). Thank you!
hey pipwoof,
im still learning to trade but i really like this system you’ve set up. I decided to tweak it a little so some feedback would be good!
Basically its the same method as you have stated above where buy entries are +1 pip above high and selling entries -1 but what i decided to do was add a dynamic trailing stop of 50 pips and use a series of lot sizes. For example, if today i ended up closing the day with a negative position and a lot size of 1 i would go into tomorrow with a lot size of 2. If the second day in a row is also negative i would go into the third day with a lot size of 4 however 4 is the highest lot size i chose to use. I downloaded the data(highs, lows, closes) of a few pairs(EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY) and the results have been impressive. Let me know what you think plz
rory, i appreciate your interest and your creativity! there are probably a lot of things we can do to improve the results. i have kinda left that up to each individual trader to put his/her mark on the method.
it sounds like you have something in mind that might be called a modified martingale, a kind of double-down method with a worst-case limit on it. i really can’t help you much with the math on that, but i’ll bet there are some on here who can. however, i did a quick bit of research that may be helpful. using our test data from 1/07 thru 6/12 for gbp/jpy, the method lost 3x in a row 35 times and 4x in a row 11 times. this is out of around 1,200 trades. the aud/usd lost 3x in a row 21 times and 4x in a row 6 times. i suppose the others will be similar.
if you did try something like that, i would advise keeping a sharp eye on your equity curve. my look into the past before 2006 gave long periods of time when this method simply did not work.
the trailing stop is something i couldn’t test with a spreadsheet. maybe one of these ea’s will allow us to do that when they are complete.
k thanks for the results and i had some difficulty factoring in the trailing stop because i cant account for moves which may have tripped my stop and ended up with me losing out on a positive outcome. Nevertheless ill try and trade it for about a month pn a demo and post the results on this thread.
I would not advise to try martingaling, this is gambler fallacy. As Seykota said, it’s like picking pennies in front of the steam roller. You can do this with almost any strategy. It tricks you by making you to believe that you’re closer to a holy grail and you avoid losses, but in reality you cut your profits short and let your losses run, keep the reward constant and increase the risk, you feed your need to be right. Every trade is new, not depending in any way of the past trades and all the results are random. Besides it looks good on paper, but when you get to the 4th iteration it will be very hard psychologically to trade. At least what you can better try is you can increase the risk after 2 losses in a row, if you insist doing it.
I’m doing some spreadsheet testing on EUR/USD (2004-Actual), and I don’t know if I’m doing something wrong, but I’m getting better results if I let the entry points exactly in the same yesterday’s HIGH/LOW, and leaving Mondays as a normal day (+1 break point).
I think the reason is because if you use a +11 break point you can avoid some fake outs, but you are also limiting your gains when the system works.
I’ll post my conclusions soon.
I don’t know if this was discussed before, I’d like to hear your opinion (or somebody else).
joan, my spreadsheet studies don’t account for a +/- 11 on mondays, but enters all trades at +/- 1. the particular year you are looking at, 2004, would have been one of the years when the system simply didn’t work and the portfolio would have lost money.my estimates are that eur/usd would have lost about -600 in 2004. in post #1 i have advised to be sure you see post #52 for information on this issue.
it was a good monday for most trading methods. steady moves south of about 100 pips, then some recovery later in the day. daybreak took four short signals:
g/j sell 122.26, close 121.46, +80
a/u sell 1.0323, close 1.0268, +55
e/u sell 1.2104, close 1.2132, -28
u/j sell 78.30, close 78.28, be
total: +107
everyone interested probably has the hang of this one by now. i have been posting results so you could check your own work, but will discontinue that. of course, if you have questions i will continue to participate in the thread. keep in mind that this method was designed for the person who has a job or other responsibilities and cannot monitor trades. it was meant to be set with buy and sell stops in the evening with wide stops so the trades can continue until the close of the day. a process which, historically, has shown a profit.
for those who can watch the markets and move stops when necessary, take a look at what happens when we couple the daybreak entry method with the triple threat exit strategy. today, this pair of methods took +440 pips on four pairs. 301 Moved Permanently
To help in the pairs selection it may be worth a look at forexfactory dot com / showthread.php? p=5599163#post5599163. This is really a proprietery indicator but other versions of currency strength meters/indicators are available. I suggest that rather than somewhat randomly selecting pairs to trade, we select pairs that are already showing trending behaviour. The easiest way to find them is by their indices then to hone in on the pairs that contain the trend pair. I have not tried this as I am busy with another system but I will get to it - maybe someone here will beat me. There is a very nice version of this (named Orion) and a Range Analyser available at some cost from fxalgotrader dot com. I have zero connection with them but nicely presented tools.
Hmmm, I can’t post links here so have broken it up a bit - put it back together.
