Daybreak

[Hong_Kong_Ola]

Is it possible to add a entry-rule and backtest what will happens if you decide [U]no[/U]t to go long if yesterday candle is a Bull candle and more than 125, 150, 175 or 200 pips long from wick to wick. Even if todays candle is higher than yesterdays.

Another test could be not to trade if yesterday candle is shorter tham 60 pips.

HKO

[Guillaume_Garreau]

hi HKO,
could you give us more details about your rules, i mean what do you expect to get and why?

[Hong_Kong_Ola]

Hallo!
It seems to me that after(not always) a long bullish candle, you quite often will get a false bullish breakout the next day. So I want to know what happens in the long run if we just avoid trading day’s like that.
HKO

[Hong_Kong_Ola]

Hallo!
It seems to me that after(not always) a long bullish candle, you quite often will get a false bullish breakout the next day. So I want to know what happens in the long run if we just avoid trading day’s like that.
HKO

But if the long bullish candle also is an engulfing candle, dont stop the trade,

[ukmartin]

Just came across this thread today, sounds really interesting

Is anyone trading it live?

With regards to TP, you could try a Fib from the end of the wick to the body of the previous days candle, entry would be at 100 (or 110 if you wanted a buffer) TP would be at 161

Just reverse it for longs

Martin

[Guillaume_Garreau]

thx for the details and about the short daily candles (60pips…)?

[Hong_Kong_Ola]

thx for the details and about the short daily candles (60pips…)?

I think it’s better to start out with just the very long daily candles(wick to wick) and if that’s works out also take a look on the short daily candles. HKO

[Forex_Copy_Trader]

Hi All,

Did anyone apply this system to a live account? Please show us the result and the history trade taken. Thanks.

[gmoreno21]

To all due respect to pipwolf and HIS system.

Hi pipwolf and thread followers,

I really like the thought of this system. I started using the daybreak system on practice w/o much luck recently but I am staying hopeful. The reason I write is because I studied the info from this week and I came across something interesting. The 2 currency pairs I’m trading on daybreak are AUD/USD and EUR/JPY. I’m partly telling everyone for the hope that someone knows how to make this into a formula on excel and partly to inform you and your followers on a potential idea that might be profitable.
It took me about an hour to manual input this data just for this week. But here goes.

On FXCM. Day= 1700pm EST-1659EST
While trading these pairs I realized that there is a big variance, at least recently, between the high/low of the daily candle and the actual close of the daily candle as compared to the high/low of the day before. If we figured out how to close our candles on exactly the high of each day, the profits on AUD/USD and EUR/JPY were significant (220.7/202.5) while just waiting to close till the end of the day would have landed losses on AUD/USD and a small profit of around 69 pips on EUR/JPY this week.
(all those numbers excluded spreads and such)

Well, we all know it’s practically impossible to catch the high everyday unless you’re some type of super wizard but I figured out a slight solution to maximizing the close of your of your transaction that worked this past week.

I took the total profits if we closed on the high/low of each day added them together and divided them by the days that got activated (5). That number on AUD/USD was 44.14 pips a day. Now, only 2 days would have hit with a T/P of 44.14. (39.8, 74.0, 56.0, 13.9, 30.0). BUT! If i took the 44.14pips and multiplied it by the fib point of .382 and subtracted that from 44.14pips that number is 27.28pips t/p and 4 days would have hit for week profit of 109.12 pips - 20pips (spreads)= 89.12pips for the week of Oct 1-5.

SOO, you ask why I used fib level .382. Its because on the calculations for EUR/JPY it was eerily close to the cut off point of of 4 trades hitting that t/p or only 2 trades hitting that T/P. On the EUR/JPY, total profits if we hit the high/low each time was 202.5. So, i divide that by 5 and get 40.5 pips per day. Of course, once again, impossible to hit perfect. So i multiplied that by the fib .382 and that number was 25.03. So, if I had put the T/P of 25.03 on all trades that week, 4 of the 5 days would have hit. (25.4, 16.4, 27.8, 73.5, 59.4). Total profits of 100.12 pips - 20pips= 80.12.

I haven’t calculated total loss days because they were very minimal and I’m trying to make this idea seem extra sparkly to someone whom might want to back test it in a more effect manner.

So from here on I will use this system for figuring out my t/p. I think I will try and and use the past 5 days to figure out that magic number each day and use that as my T/P. Kind of like a EMA. I’m not sure what S/L would be effective with this method or if the risk/reward ratio makes it even plausible but I’m just here presenting an idea that someone might want to add to, maximize or adjust for it to work properly in all markets. Feel free to email you’re ideas, or concerns or if you think i just figured out a useless mathematical loophole, respectfully please. I’ll be really busy these next couple of weeks because I’m moving so I can’t constantly test this theory but if anyone out there has the time feel free to try this under the condition you share results.

Godspeed

[paul14louie]

Good Day,

I am new to Forex i just want to know regarding the Daybreak Strategy If i open an entry on Tuesday using the candle from the Monday result should i wait for it to close and then trade another. Or should i close the entry even negative or positive profit so i can trade for the next day candle?

Thanks

[pipwoof]

paul, test results for daybreak and triple threat assumed all positions were taken except hedges. that is, if a new day gave new signals, they were entered. in reality, i will add to existing positions only if current ones are safely in profit.

[paul14louie]

Thank you sir for the reply.

Out of topic question sir. Is there any strategies for hedging just find out the fxcm is allowing hedging…

[avijitpyne]

this is the part where lucy has some 'splaining to do, but this is something we all need to know about. i’ll be doing my best to blame this on fred and ethel…we’ll see how far i get.

in all honesty, i started with 2007 data by pure chance. i didn’t want to be working with huge files and wasn’t sure i cared much about what happened before '07. five and a half years seemed like a reasonable n trades to me and i took off on it. i got great results BECAUSE THE METHOD WORKED LIKE A CHARM [U]IN THIS TIME FRAME![/U]

so, i am relaxing on my laurels, so to speak, have this online poker game going where some of the players are soooooooo sloooooooooow, and i think i might just jump over and look at a broader data set. i built from ibfx 1990 to mid-2012, applied the method, and, omg, i got some horrible equity charts. the gbp/jpy, eur/usd, and aud/usd each went through a period prior to 2007 where they gave back thousands of pips. the usd/jpy held up pretty well for the whole study, but the four-pair portfolio just had this big hole in it.

basically, what it pointed out was that, had you started trading this for real (which, of course, you wouln’t have) anytime 1999 thru 2005, you would have come looking for me with mr. saturday night special. ethel! why did you tell me that dataset was so perfect?

next, i started trying to uncover what had happened. how had the market changed during those extreme drawdowns? i looked at trend, daily range, requiring increased movement for breakout, indicators, etc., nada. at length, here’s the sum of it. each of three of our pairs went through a lengthy phase where buying the high breakout or selling the low was a losing proposition. why? i don’t know. uh, the market is strange, it is designed to frustrate traders, it succeeds with a large majority of them, maybe too many traders were using breakouts. no matter, the bottom line is that the market changed during these time frames.

the next part of the process was to isolate the periods of time for each pair where the method didn’t work. how do you do this? like telling if milk is soured. smell it. look at your equity. are you making money? the system is working. are you breaking even or losing money? the system is not working.

the general time frame that DAYBREAK did not work for these three pairs was:
gbp/jpy 10-99 thru 6-06
aud/usd 11-90 thru 12-03
eur/usd 10-95 thru 8-04

i debated whether to throw in a lot of philosophy and trading dynamics here, but thought better of it. maybe we can talk more later. i would offer some summary nuggets. systems fail; systems fail because markets change; the objective of the market is to drive you crazy and shake the coins out of your pockets; to succeed, you will need to do more than “think out of the box,” you will need to think out of several boxes.

at this point, i pretty much know when things started going badly for each pair, but, other than stop trading those pairs during their times of drawdown based on our equity curve, i don’t have a solution. i really don’t know if there is anything that works all the time in all market conditions. here is the best we might be able to do with DAYBREAK. our studies tell us it would have worked for about the past six years. it seems to be working now. we know it is smart to trade more than one system, more than one portfolio, and to stop trading when they quit working. maybe it just doesn’t get any better than that.

hi

i did not understand those

the general time frame that DAYBREAK did not work for these three pairs was:
gbp/jpy 10-99 thru 6-06
aud/usd 11-90 thru 12-03
eur/usd 10-95 thru 8-04

can u explain it more easily.

thanks in advance.

[peterevanson]

Hi InterJon, I agree with you. Great way of thinking. Appreciated…:60:

[HULKsaysPUNYGOD]

[QUOTE=“pipwoof;419738”]paul, test results for daybreak and triple threat assumed all positions were taken except hedges. that is, if a new day gave new signals, they were entered. in reality, i will add to existing positions only if current ones are safely in profit.[/QUOTE]

Anything new? It’s been almost one year, Are u sir still using this method?

[moneyferret]

Is anyone still using this system? Any chance of a further update from pipwoof?

[apfrezza]

Today I’ve backtested usdjpy and it seems very profitable. Ithink that on Monday I will start trading on a real account.

I would like to find a way to improve it…but it seems alright perfect now!

[HULKsaysPUNYGOD]

[QUOTE=“apfrezza;532919”]Today I’ve backtested usdjpy and it seems very profitable. Ithink that on Monday I will start trading on a real account.

I would like to find a way to improve it…but it seems alright perfect now![/QUOTE]

Let us know how it goes. EURJPY looks pretty good too.

[apfrezza]

My only concern is the very high volatility that we’ll see next week.

I’ll try with mini lots…

[moneyferret]

Yes, please do let us know the results of your live trades, it would be appreciated. And good luck!