This looks like a fantastic system. Can everyone please please post your results everyday
Hi pipwoof,
I must congratulate you on observing a nice pattern on the Daily charts. It definitely looks like a profitable system but I believe tweaks are necessary.
I have prepared a basic EA for this system. Attaching herewith. I must let all know that I am an amateur programmer with very limited knowledge. I am trying to learn by myself and with the help of other users of this forum.
The attached program has the following variables:
1.Magic number - Leave it unchaged.
2. Stoploss = I have currently set it to zero as per your rules. You may use your em stop number or others
3. Takeprofit - have currently set to 0.
4. Lots - have set to 0.1
5. Slip - have set to 30. mine is a 5 & 3 digit MT4. ppl using 4 or 2 digit MT4 can change it to single digit.
6. TimeToStop_Mon_Thu_Hour - This is the server time from Mon to Thu that you want the EA to close open orders. I have set it to 23 currently because my server time starts the day from 00:00 and ends at 23:59. change it to respective server time.
7. TimeToStop_Mon_Thu_Min - time in mims that you want to stop.
8. TimeToStop_Fri_Hour - Close time on fri is different than from Mon-Thu. So you can check your server close times on Fri and set it appropriately.
9. TimeToStop_Fri_Min - Same as number 7.
The EA opens only one trade per day. If it opens a Buy trade it wont open a sell trade even if price moves in the opp direction and crosses the other thresh-hold level and similarly vice-versa.
Please feel free to play around with the program and post feedbacks.
I will try my best to upgrade the program if possible with my limited knowledge. But I am a part time trader with a full time job. so, i can only devote some time to programming on weekends. But anyone else is free to tweak the program.
Best of luck in trading.
Crisscross
Daybreak.zip (1.56 KB)
Hello all,
-
Eg, If you want your open orders to close at 23:58 on Mon-Thurs then enter
TimeToStop_Mon_Thu_Hour = 23
&
TimeToStop_Mon_Thu_Min = 58
Similar for Friday stop time. -
The attached file is an mt4 file. You should place it in the experts folder and then compile it using the editor to get the ex4 file. For more details search youtube for videos.
Thanks
Hi Pipwoof,
Have you made any progress with defining a trend for your system? 
Keeping an eye on this one!
good morning, all! hope you had a good weekend. this is a holiday week and many traders with experience and discretion are on the sidelines. the markets just do funny things as holidays approach. those who do enter positions keep a close watch and are quick to back off if their trades start going sideways on them.
we would be short in all four pairs.
gbp/jpy short @ 124.99
aud/usd short @ 1.0213
eur/usd short @ 126.38
usd/jpy short @ 79.69
this week, i will be refreshing my research on the original data, leaving sunday out, to firm up our positive conclusions about the test period, 2007 thru mid-june 2012. i will also be looking at the suggestions for improving the program to see what we can find that helps.
i also have some findings that you need to know about. this is under the category of, “you’ve got some 'splaining to do, lucy,” and i will work on that. it will add up to some revisions in the way we look at this trading method.
thanks for your interest. special thanks to crisscross1983 for efforts to get an ea going. hope i can figure out how to use it.
look for revisions to page 1 made today.
Good work pipwoof.Your work seems very legit and i am gonna personally test it because at a first glance it looks very interesting.
Hi Pipwoof,
So…same rules except we fade the breakouts instead of trading in the direction of the breakout (selliing the high breakout and buying the low breakout)? :eek:
May I say I am shocked?
Let’s see if I understand the change in dynamics. Price movement touches the high of yesterday’s candle. The pending sell order is hit (at the top). Price then moves to the bottom of yesterday’s candle. The buy order is then hit (at the bottom). The trade is now effectively hedged for whatever the size of yesterday’s candle amounts to. Therefore, unless we cancel opposite orders, our profit will always be limited to the size of yesterday’s candle. On the bright side, we have eliminated whipsaws because we cannot take more of a loss than in one direction? :33:
If one presupposes that the 2007/2008 economic crisis has forever changed the financial market, how relevant is the data prior to the meltdown?
Good trading!
bobkat, thanks for pointing out a problem with the spreadsheet studies. i have deleted the former post until i have more time to work on the problem.
pipwoof, wld still like to know about your thoughts on tp, and as i said befor if you are putting a 150 pip SL on eur/usd are you then looking for a 300pip profit and giving you a 1>2 R/R, if not then you are risking more then you are making correct??
this is the part where lucy has some 'splaining to do, but this is something we all need to know about. i’ll be doing my best to blame this on fred and ethel…we’ll see how far i get.
in all honesty, i started with 2007 data by pure chance. i didn’t want to be working with huge files and wasn’t sure i cared much about what happened before '07. five and a half years seemed like a reasonable n trades to me and i took off on it. i got great results BECAUSE THE METHOD WORKED LIKE A CHARM [U]IN THIS TIME FRAME![/U]
so, i am relaxing on my laurels, so to speak, have this online poker game going where some of the players are soooooooo sloooooooooow, and i think i might just jump over and look at a broader data set. i built from ibfx 1990 to mid-2012, applied the method, and, omg, i got some horrible equity charts. the gbp/jpy, eur/usd, and aud/usd each went through a period prior to 2007 where they gave back thousands of pips. the usd/jpy held up pretty well for the whole study, but the four-pair portfolio just had this big hole in it.
basically, what it pointed out was that, had you started trading this for real (which, of course, you wouln’t have) anytime 1999 thru 2005, you would have come looking for me with mr. saturday night special. ethel! why did you tell me that dataset was so perfect?
next, i started trying to uncover what had happened. how had the market changed during those extreme drawdowns? i looked at trend, daily range, requiring increased movement for breakout, indicators, etc., nada. at length, here’s the sum of it. each of three of our pairs went through a lengthy phase where buying the high breakout or selling the low was a losing proposition. why? i don’t know. uh, the market is strange, it is designed to frustrate traders, it succeeds with a large majority of them, maybe too many traders were using breakouts. no matter, the bottom line is that the market changed during these time frames.
the next part of the process was to isolate the periods of time for each pair where the method didn’t work. how do you do this? like telling if milk is soured. smell it. look at your equity. are you making money? the system is working. are you breaking even or losing money? the system is not working.
the general time frame that DAYBREAK did not work for these three pairs was:
gbp/jpy 10-99 thru 6-06
aud/usd 11-90 thru 12-03
eur/usd 10-95 thru 8-04
i debated whether to throw in a lot of philosophy and trading dynamics here, but thought better of it. maybe we can talk more later. i would offer some summary nuggets. systems fail; systems fail because markets change; the objective of the market is to drive you crazy and shake the coins out of your pockets; to succeed, you will need to do more than “think out of the box,” you will need to think out of several boxes.
at this point, i pretty much know when things started going badly for each pair, but, other than stop trading those pairs during their times of drawdown based on our equity curve, i don’t have a solution. i really don’t know if there is anything that works all the time in all market conditions. here is the best we might be able to do with DAYBREAK. our studies tell us it would have worked for about the past six years. it seems to be working now. we know it is smart to trade more than one system, more than one portfolio, and to stop trading when they quit working. maybe it just doesn’t get any better than that.
podz, sorry, i haven’t been ignoring your question, just not sure i’m smart enough to answer it. in an earlier post cry agony reported that the r/r and roi on this method were both bad. true, when we trade the euro, we are risking a maximum of -150, our emergency stop level. our preliminary studies suggest that our average loss is somewhere -75 to -85 and our average win is +100 to +110. i suppose this could be loosly translated as .7:1. or, if we use our maximum loss, we get 1.5:1, showing we are risking more than our expected gain.
if someone else can chime in here, it would be helpful.
we were short today in all four pairs.
gbp/jpy short @ 124.99, close 124.63, +36
aud/usd short @ 1.0223, close 1.0234, -11
eur/usd short @ 1.2638, close 1.2578, +60
usd/jpy short @ 79.69, close 79.44, +25
Total, +110
Read more: 301 Moved Permanently
[QUOTE=pipwoof;368562]we were short today in all four pairs.
gbp/jpy short @ 124.99, close 124.63, +36
aud/usd short @ 1.0223, close 1.0234, -11
eur/usd short @ 1.2638, close 1.2578, +60
usd/jpy short @ 79.69, close 79.44, +25
Total, +110
Pipwoof, I think the data set you derived for the past 66 months is more than indicative of your strategy’s positive performance. The less than stellar drawdown before that time does not deter me in the slightest. I think optimizing the TP and SL parameters (and possibly allowing for only trading with the trend) will be beneficial tweaks. :21:
hi,pipwoof,
your system is interesting. May i know how you open a position? using sell/buy stop? According to my understanding, it seems that when the price action goes above yesterday’s high(low), you enter a long(short) when price triggers the buy stop/sell stop orders? Am i right?
the Win rate of your system is >57%. 12 wins out of 21 total trades. that is promising and practical
Great thread and thanks for your kind sharing.
happy pips
Pipwoof,
Do we trade holidays? The 4th of July is a holiday, of course…do we trade it?
i usually pass on holidays and the days before. in this case, i would skip today and tomorrow. try again thursday.
joey, did you get that win rate from some personal research? thanks for sharing that. it may be spurious and just be a streak. pipwise, the system won in may, about +700, lost in june, about -150. i am able to watch the market, so what i usually do is put in buy or sell stops for what looks like the most likely position to trigger. enter stop-loss at the same time. of course, that may change during the day and i may find myself canceling some orders and placing others. if i have to be away from the computer, i leave both buy and sell stops on each position. if your broker accepts oco orders, that’s the way to go. otherwise, brokers who won’t accept hedge trades will fill your first order hit, but not the second which would make the hedge. determine what kinds of orders your broker accepts and use the best for your situation.
well, i was mistaken about our may results. just a reminder from earlier posts, i have not brought this one online yet. all paper trading at this point. here are the results i got for may. i will recount june when i have more time. please, check my work.
eur/usd +304
gbp/jpy +444
aud/usd +230
usd/jpy +114
Portfolio total +1,092
btw, we had one emergency stop hit in may. it was the aussie on may 22 for -125. that’s included in the tally above.