Daybreak

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
83

I am new to this thread and following from the very beginning. The idea to move with trend may lead this strategy to wonderful results.

Don’t know, it will work with this strategy or not !. Just giving an idea to define trend.

Take the recently closed 4 nos. of daily candles. If the close of 4th candle is above the close of 1st candle, look only for long trades. Similarly, if the close of 4th candle is below the close of 1st candle, then look only for Short trades.

Attaching a chart for easy analyzing.

gbpjpy trend 1.jpg700×225 15.1 KB

I calculated the spread sheet with the Hot Forex data available with me since 18.08.2005 and found following results on GBP/JPY

  1. As per the current strategy. (With both side trades and without considering emergency stops)

a. Short Trades = +4529.2 pips
b. Long Trades = +4546.3 pips

 Total = 9075 Pips
  1. By going with trend and calculating trend as per the above method

a. Short Trades = +4806.5 pips
b. Long Trades = +5602.6 pips

 Total = + 10409 pips.

Please note that the above is only for GBP/JPY. Trades are closed only at the end of the day.

Hope it helps.

Glad to give any further clarifications.

84

Hi pipwoof,

I just backtested the ea on gbp/usd with these results:
www .4shared.com/document/aJqds2Dn/StrategyTester_Daybreak.html

Let me know if you have trouble accessing the file.

85

good results and very interesting strategy…
but i have one question…what should be tp according to you?..or just close trade on the end of the day?..i am little bit confused about tp so please guide me…
thanks…

86

This looks very interesting Pipwoof. I would like to give it a paper-trade try on GBP/USD during UK trading times. I will design a very simple spread-sheat showing entry and exit points with losses and gains on a daily basis. Best regards.

87

the premise of this approach is that the close is often in the direction of the break. close at the end of the day. have not done testing with tp.

88

Hi pipwoof i thought that it would be probably good to close the trade before 2-3 hours of the close of the daily candlestick?Because in most of the cases the traders lock the profit at the end of the day so the ongoing trend fades or retraces a little bit.

89

two points for those of you trying to use the ea to backtest. it is not working properly at this time. look at your entries, multiple entries on the same day. look at your stops. simply not accurate at this time.

also, per the advice on post #1, read my post #52 on historical drawdowns. look at the dates where equity highs were reached, followed by drawdowns. if you are studying gbp/jpy from 1990 up to 1999, good results, 2000 to 2006, bad results, 2006 to present, good results. aud/usd, 1990 to 2003, bad results, 2003 to present, good results.

90

Well,this is a good idea but i think that this idea leads to the trend trading so it may be failed in the choppier markets like we observed in the June.The idea behind the original Day Break trading system is to open a order on the break of the resistance or support,doesn’t matter what the direction of the trend is.

91

bijoymj, appreciate your work so much. let me guess. you originally determined slope including today’s data and got those fabulous results, +53,000. then, you caught the error and revised your findings, +10,000. i am guessing that because that’s exactly what i did and was dancing around the computer! then, starting looking trade by trade. oops. not to worry. i believe trend will help us and we can continue to work together to find the right approach. this may be it and i will continue to work on it this week. appreciate your help.

i am currently showing +24,216 on the gbp/jpy from 01-2007 thru 06-2012 using -200 emergency stop and eliminating sundays. 648 losses and 600 wins, average loss -70 and average win +116. this can be our benchmark and i would love to find a trend filter that would reduce our number of trades while holding close to those averages.

92

as we search for that trend filter, let me relay a concern that is purely anecdotal and may wash away as we study a larger data base, but i’m not so sure. our biggest loss last month was the gbp/jpy on june 29. look at that sucker touch down to put us short, then roar up to an emergency stop. there go -200 pips. the thing is, every trend indicator i put on it is showing that as a short trade. june 6 and 7 are both long winners for more than +200, but would have been screened because the trend is showing down.

93

There is no distrust that this system will produce optimistic and reliable results. Only thing is to adapt a technique, to grasp the potential move in the true direction. I feel a lot of home work is required to get up to that system which will escort all of us accurate on the path of victory.

Trying my best to come across a way out.

94

Pipwolf, what trend filter are you using, please?

95

bobkat, in reference to the dates above, i had a four-bar slope, heiken kuskus, cci, rsi, stoch, and 5/20 ema on the chart. imo, nothing would have saved us from the wrong direction on the 29th. i have taken a closer look at the 6th and 7th and, though the package indicators would not have helped us go long, the heiken, slope, and ema would have. so far, i just haven’t found a consistent precursor, predictor, bias, trend, etc., that helps the overall net pips or reduces number of trades while holding the win/loss numbers.

96

as advised earlier, i prefer not to trade on holidays or the day before. around christmas, i stop about dec 15th and come back in on jan 3. had we chosen to trade over july 3 and 4, it would have come to about -30 for the two days. today we are:

eur/usd short @ 1.2506
gbp/jpy short @ 124.22
aud/usd short @ 1.0258
usd/jpy long @ 79.96

97

not to say that i have not overlooked something. please continue your search and your findings may yet be greatly beneficial to the method and those who are considering it. but, i have yet to find a precursor, bias, pattern, or trend that would have measurably helped us stay on the right side of the trade. frankly, this is consistent with my personal experience, but i am not proud. hardheaded, maybe, not proud. find it and i will sing your praises and laud your kidneys.

i looked at prior day, both with the move and contrary, each about the same. i looked at most of the packaged indicators, rsi, cci, stochs, osma, macd, alligators, whales, clouds, and possums. in the end, the most promising were the moving average type, i.e., ema, slope, and heiken. don’t get hung up on which one specifically. they are all going to be in the same ballpark.

our baseline uses ibfx data, 01-07 thru 06-12. for the four-pair portfolio:
pips lost, -125,435
pips won, +174,958
net pips, +49,523

losses, 2,542

wins, 2,422

average loss, -49
average win, +72

using a heiken, ma, slope TYPE of trend:
pips lost, -82,280
pips won, +119,656
net pips, +37,376

losses, 1,765

wins, 1,712

average loss, -47
average win, +70

fewer trades, fewer pips, for sure, but no substantial difference in overall ratios. in addition, i went back through the data beginning in 1990 to see if the filter might mitigate some of those terrible drawdowns. nope. if we’re going to trade this, we will absolutely have to keep a close eye on our equity curve and predetermine the point at which we would stop trading it. but, wouldn’t that be true for anything we put our money behind?

thank you for your votes of confidence, suggestions, and other help. i will certainly continue with this thread as long as there is interest, but will begin to organize my information for a variation on this method which requires more attention to the markets. DAYBREAK was conceived as pretty much set it and forget it, at least until the end of the day. TRIPLE THREAT EXITS WITH DAYBREAK prefers at least an hourly look.

98

My idea for this method.

4h chart.
6 major pairs
30 SMA
Price above SMA = long
Price below SMA = short

Enter on break + 5 pips
Set 10 pip SL
Set 15 pip TP

On 4h TF for majors the price should cover 15 pips in much less than 4h.
My idea with the TP and SL is to get many secure profits and cut the losses.
What needs to be tested is if the price will cover the 15 pips in our favor before it covers the 10 pips to our SL.
Therefore we would need an EA or someone to test this on demo.

Without TP I see the problem that many times price breaks the high/low and moves in our favor it still closes as an indecision candle = loss if we didnt lock our profit when we could.

99

trailing, stop on breakeven, close at extreme levels of ATR,etc…

100

[QUOTE=niX1990;369656]My idea for this method.

lol. nix, appreciate, i guess, the thought, but your reference is to “this method” and i have to assume you mean DAYBREAK. this method (DAYBREAK) doesn’t use 6 pairs, 4 hr bars, sma, 5 pip breaks, or tp. nor is it premised as a scalper. that would be another method, perhaps YOUR method. your method may have merit. why don’t you do some homework, name your method, start a thread, and attract some interest. honestly, no offense, we’re all trying to find our way. your post just broke me up.

101

ok, lets not lose the focus…
but what he said at the end, has a point.

pipwoof, have you tried something like close trades at H5 / L5 (of camarilla) or extreme levels of ATR?

usually price retraces from there…

102

I am sorry if I was not clear. I didnt want to submit anything like “my method” here. I understand “entering at previous candles break” as the method and didnt change that. I just picked up some ideas for points that I thought could be difficult.

If that ended up in a complete new method take my excuse and these reduced points for your method.

  • As stated by some other members I would also suggest an indicator to determine trend. That shouldnt be too complicated. A SMA should do the trick.
  • Using a SL thats more bound to the recent movement could be another good idea to maximize profits. The ATR is a good solution in my eyes. It helps to get the SL at the same size the price moved in the last periods. Why would we risk 200 pips on a pair where the last 10 candles didnt cover more than 50 pips a day?

Just trying to contribute.

Btw. if you need help with the excel spreadsheet just shoot me a message with specifications. I may be able to insert some advanced calculations with visual basic for excel.