It was stopped for the moment around 7670 and now in retrace. Holding on as per the method trading rules.
Most likely because CAD often moves in sync with the oil price which dropped sharply Friday.
Thanks. Was there warning of some kind that you know of? I didn’t see anything in the forex calendars at the time of the move.
I guess there was some high level negotiations this week: Expert Commentary: Is There Still Hope For An OPEC Deal? | OilPrice.com
Much of oil’s moves this week were probably in anticipation of deals or no deals, rumours etc.
There were 3 things that came together on Friday:
First as mentioned there was the sharp fall in oil, undid the rises of Wed and Thur (not unlike the US stock indices, so some risk off, profit taking, Friday blues or whatever).
Then there was Euro buying on Friday (check Eurx), helped by the risk off feel - yep the Euro acts like that believe it or not - here is one guy’s post back in Jan:
And of course on the back of all that the poor old Cad got sold following the poor numbers at 14.30 - check the BP calendar by unchecking all currencies except CAD for Friday.
And just reading the link, I see Eur/Sek get a mention, now o990 is well familiar with that cross but it seldom gets a mention, yet it’s an important cross from the ECB perspective.
I mentioned the EURX, here is a little info:
EURX or Euro Index | Forex Ltd
Hope the mods don’t mind the link since it is a broker but thought the info was pertinent
CADJPY is resuming its hourly downtrend today and offered a 3 Ducks entry this morning. The target is the average day’s range down at the 76.00 round number. Last week’s low at ~76.10 is slowing the descent so I’ve tightened the stop - it’s not worth letting the market come back just for the sake of 10 pips.
Always Great to learn from different market sources before making a trading, I usually do good research before executing trades.
Another rinse-and-repeat of the 3 Ducks today on GBPUSD. The break coincided with yesterday’s low for added confirmation.
Gold also offered a couple of shots at the quarry. I didn’t like the look of the first and missed the second but Cable offered enough recompense.
Always nice in downside pressure when the prior week’s low also slips early into the fresh week’s play too huh? 
Indeed it is. Always slightly disappointing to be sat on the sidelines of a nice move like that in Gold but I didn’t like the Asian price action and I saw the September lows as being close potential resistance which could have had an impact if things were quieter. Hence I placed my bets on Cable instead and I can’t complain about how that played out.
Also helps your short stance that over 70% of retail punters across the board are net long the past 2 weeks (heaviest off 1.30). They actually increased longs yesterday by up to 16% even with it having opened at the prior week’s lows & failed miserably to re-take the opening highs.
Sometimes you just have to shake your head & chuckle.
At least there’s a plentiful of supply of them for you to take the other side of.
Add to that, a similar ratio are SHORT Eur/Gbp, and there is more …on Oanda’s open positions ratio cable trades and therefore by definition 70% longs come in third in quantity, just a tad behind Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy
Difficult to understand the mentality of so many, but I suppose good news for some.
Well they definitely got their asses handed to them overnight. Sadly it wasn’t me taking their money this time.
Perhaps not, but they’ll be plenty more opportunities for you to do so before the years out that’s for sure.
Well there you go, of course the losers are the 70% and the “good news for some” are the bookmakers.
Don’t expect there will be any brokers going broke over the Pound action today.
COT data suggests that GBP is close to a bottom, or possibly the bottom has already been set. As it is not a timing tool however, knowing when to go long is not possible just looking at COT data, but knowing that a long move will likely be coming not to far off is still useful.
At the current extreme levels I’d be wary of trading in any direction for a longer term trade. Waiting for the right entry usually pays off…
Happy New Year!
Another year gone and what a great year it was. Not only profitable but I got to meet Magnus for a few drinks - a real nice guy and great to finally meet up after all these years.
As for 2017, may yours be all that you wish for. For me, I’ll be happy ending the year with more than I started and if I continue to manage to pull out some spending money to boot then life will be good.
For anyone new who happens to bump into this, I’ll level with you. Trading, for me at least, is not an exciting or glamorous endeavour. Grinding out profits with three steps forward and two steps back is hard work, it’s sometimes emotionally draining, it’s often boring and frustrating. But I wouldn’t change it for the world - I enjoy it and, ultimately, I’m rewarded for my efforts. It’s not for everyone but the good news is you can potentially find a way to trade that fits with your skillset, your mindset, your personality. Just be prepared for a few setbacks along the way.
All the best for 2017!
Three weeks into the New Year now. I and my fiancée were in the UK last year and finally I had the chance to meet Matt. Truly nice and fun guy! We will be seeing each other again without doubt!
If you look around a forum you’ll find that very few people are still around from those that used to frequent this and other forums back around 2008/2009 when both Matt and I were new in this world.
The main reason I’m still here is that I’ve refused to give up and admit defeat at those low points that all new traders encounter. Most others probably make the other much easier choice. It took time and “learning tuition”, but now I have a handle on trading and what happens then, just like Matt wrote, is that the excitement goes out and many times it can become quite boring. The excitement lies in continually trying to improve and I have to admit that I feel pleasure from knowing that I perservered where almost everyone gives up.
There are, imho, two main factors that will decide if you can succeed (applicable in trading but also in life general):
- Have at least average intelligence
- Have a winners attitude as in: Winners never quit and quitters never win
Especially point nr 2 I have found to be true everywhere I look in life. Luck always runs out eventually, but hard work turns you into a winner.
Happy trading!