thank you matt.
it is very tough mentally but i’m really enjoying it also.
with this precise model it is yes.
it shifts the odds more firmly in my favour when it coincides with key leval zones such as clearly identified support and resistence, day & week high/lows, previus swing reacton zones etc, which of course is the core of their framework.
just track back on this pair to see this confirmaton evidance working in tandem with the price action.
the big s&r zone at 105.70-90 in early march, 107.60-70 on the 12th & the 108.60 area last week.
those are typical of the bets i am permitted to take useing this model.
both combination timeframes must match up with technical price levals to engage the bet.
if it doesn’t then i am to leave it until this criteria is present and/or look to engage via other setup & trigger combos that are being taught.
Hi hawkmoon,
I’ve been viewing some of the other posts associated with this particular setup on the Technical Templates thread & it appears you all restrict it to trending or established directional type entries.
Have or do you or the other exponents of this specific setup & trigger trade it in ranging conditions at all? & if so what kind of results have you experienced.
hello to you laine.
it is indeed designed for tradeing directional bias type price action.
i suppose it depends on your definiton of range & how you are identifying it.
a range on a daily timeframe could very well be viewed as a tradeable bias or trend on a 60m based on the criteria used on that thred.
the plentiful exampels & interaction on those threds best explain the ideal scenarios for tradeing according to the structure & definitons laid down.
the objective of that particular model is to engage via a combination timeframe approach in the direction of the dominant bias as defined by your primery & secondary timeframe of choice.
it is why the structure is extremly flexible & can be adopted & applied across a varied selecton of timeframes & market conditions.
Is the Euro on your radar for today? It gave the nod as price probed the previous week high and hooked on the 60 min although I was too slow to hit the 1-2-3 on the 5 min so currently sat on the sidelines.
its not on mine matt.
jimmy & another of their guys are tradeing it, but they engaged from the stronger support coinciding the round number at 1.30 last week.
check your hourly & 15m stochs from that leval & you’ll see the trigger.
jimmy added yestarday on the shallow asian pulback, but not today as far as I know although the 60/15m hook combo with 123 is a valid entery.
From the small amount of your posts I’ve read hawkmoon, your technical view & outlook on the currencies isn’t too dissimilar to that of Andy Perry’s 3 Ducks strategy, which I’ve been focusing on since arriving here.
I’m assuming the Technical Templates threads that are referred to here will pad out & fill in the blanks to the support & resistance background that you’re using as the foundation of the set up & triggers?
I’ve had a browse through them & it’s not immediately apparent that they’re shuffled into an orderly sequence, but is there an obvious benefit to be derived from perusing them in any kind of order?
Both approaches are similar in that they are identifying directional markets and then engaging when a pullback resumes the macro trend. ATT focuses a bit more on the S+R levels than 3D and also tends to trigger sooner than 3D but you won’t go far wrong with either approach.
With regards to the ATT threads, they all contain the same structure but having it repeated doesn’t do any harm so I would suggest reading all 3 whilst focussing on posts from the main contributors. The only variance between them is discussion around particular triggers. There’s also a couple of aggregation documents around but they’re best left for reference rather than a shortcut as you miss the discussion around particular topics.
A heads up from a higher timeframe than the one you’re executing from, to adjudge whether you’re operating under trend conditions or range boundaries + any significant area or two to the left of the chart as a gauge to the potential near term destination, is about all that’s required to build a workable strategy.
It can be summed up in 3 basic steps.
Identify a clear trend or bias on your primary timeframe of choice.
Trade in harmony with the trend on that particular frame or utilize a dual (primary/secondary) option, paying particular attention as price approaches & reacts to:
prior week & prior day highs-lows
prior s&r zones clearly visible from the left of the chart
round numbers & combinations of the above.
Use the average day & week range percentages to assist with bet management including entry, target planning & risk.
Nice work & analysis hawkmoon.
As you correctly highlighted, price is now rejecting the first of your resistance area’s & I’m sure those trailing stops will reward that disciplined approach.
The Yen pairs have continued to be providing the better opportunities this week. Here’s EURJPY from today with a clear trend on the hourly.
As for triggering the trade - take your pick! There was an early pullback stochastic hook (low risk but lower win-rate), a momentum break, a 1-2-3 continuation through the PDH or a pull-back with exhaustion bars at the PWH/Round no. All offered good risk with plenty of daily range still available to check the forward momentum.
Hi Matt,
That second chart looks like a 5 minute, which I’m assuming you’re using as the reference for the different trigger options.
When you say lower risk but also lower win rate in relation to the stochastic hook pullback trigger entry, is that purely from the respect of the 5 minute timeframe? or do you mean generally.
Yes, I usually trigger off the 5 min chart. The timeframe doesn’t make a huge difference if you’re triggering out of a specific location but if you’re just taking higher lows on an uptrend then inevitably lower timeframes will give more signals and therefore less reliability.
I was particularly referring to the stochastic hook compared with the other triggers in that set. It triggers earlier and doesn’t have the confirmation of breaking the high that the others do so you’re entering the market ahead of the break which gives you keener risk but the tradeoff is that you’ll get losses when price doesn’t make a new high unless the market gives you time to get out for a scratch trade.
However with that said, remember a low win rate isn’t a bad thing provided you have the discipline to trade it - it’s merely a case of constructing an approach that matches your psychology.
To put some context around this, the 3 ducks uses the momentum trigger - entering as price breaks to a new high - but that’s just a trigger and you could take a stoch hook trigger instead. You’d get more trades and a higher return for the trades that work but you’ll also see more losers.
The important factor in that statement is of course what represents a specific location.
If however you’ve determined via evidence that your identified location trumps everything else in relation to reliability & therefore profitability, I definitely know which approach I’d be focusing my efforts & attention on
I certainly agree with your comment about timeframes. They’re simply a window on the price action. The lower you go the more detail they offer, but that’s all it is.
Their irrelevance will obviously be supported (for you anyway) only if the evidence concludes that location is key to returning reliability at entry to both risk & overall profitability.
Is that still the case when using 3 Ducks as your directional guide & employing your triggers (stochastic hook, fresh 5 minute high or whatever) as price is reacting off one of your identified specific location levels as opposed to the more scattergun approach?
If it is, then would it not make more sense to eliminate the lower probability options completely from your plan & maximize your capital on the higher probability bets?
That might mean increasing the number of pairs on your watch list, but the payoff would almost certainly be worth it providing of course the evidence supports it.
Yes, I would suggest that it still holds. On a 5 minute chart even the previous day high will be a range around which price will react, not a single line, and when you’re zoomed in that close the stochastic may well trigger a number of times compared with a single momentum trigger and depending on where you place your stops you may have a few losses before hitting the home run. That’s just the nature of this trigger.
If you’re determined to take stochastic hooks but want to increase win-rate you’ll have to sacrifice something else. One of the better ways to achieve this is to only take the hooks if the 15m or the hourly is also hooking - you’re increasing the probability of the hook entry succeeding a bit but the sacrifice is you’ll be taking less trades.
Again, there’s no right approach here it’s merely just a case of matching your preferred style and objectives with the various pieces of the jigsaw available. You might prefer high win rate and lower reward per trade, or perhaps low win rate but with large sized wins. You might have an objective of one trade a day, or one a week.
When it comes to choosing which setups to trade I would definitely agree that focussing on those that experience tells you work better will pay dividends. For me the most important aspect is the directional bias that determines the higher probability bets. If there’s a zone where I’m looking for price to bounce and then continue on its original bias then I’ll be waiting for price to confirm that bounce and start moving away, then I’ll be triggering in that direction. However for me that often means the level is no longer in play - it’s moved away from it - and that’s fine. Sometimes a level can get batted back and forth as price works through the orders so you’re not necessarily guaranteeing success just because you entered at major level, unless you set a wide stop well outside the zone to allow for gyrations.
That’s good.
You can’t really do much more than back up your view with solid evidence. Amazing how much more confidence that will offer going forward.
Oh without fail it always comes back to compromise. The crucial part of that decision making process however is you’ve collected, compiled & based your view on hard evidence. There are a lot of things in this game you can fudge, but there’s no hiding from well worked stats.
Agreed.
That’s the bit where your risks to potential reward ratios begin adding value to your plan.
You can have the best piece of analysis kit on the block, but it’s only as good as the risk you’re prepared to allocate it when you place your bet into the market.
But judging by the manner in which you present your view on here I doubt you have too much trouble in that department.
Good luck this week.
