Hey everyone. Any Swing-Traders trading this second/third week of December? With Brexit coming up for a vote (that one burned me a few months back) and the U.S. Dec 15 Trade deadline, I’m wondering if anyone thinks it’ll be too volatile to trade? I haven’t concerned myself too much with “Trading the News” yet, but this week seems like a lot is happening. And then there’s the Holidays, which I’m assuming will stagnate trading?
I just started trading live a few months back, have had a DEMO account for about a year & done fairly well, but I’m concerned about the next week. I’ll probably bow out this month all together, but I reeeeally want to keep trading, haha.
It is suicide to trade the GBP on or before this weeks elections. You are just gambling. I day trade and swing a lot of my trades. I will watch the market up until a few days before Christmas and then again over the Christmas New Year period. But really a lot of traders will be looking to close out positions and take a break over Christmas. So volatility will be low and good trades will be few and far between.
I’m currently trialling basket trades involving the major pairs of the strongest plus the weakest currencies. Holding Mondays-Wednesdays/Thursdays only.
So I’m going to be long GBP and NZD tomorrow but will be out and in cash by Thursday midday-ish. I definitely won’t hold GBP overnight into Friday. After that I’ll review next Monday morning and take a basket of positions based on strengths/weaknesses until the following Thursday at the latest.
I was thinking, being major currencies, that they’d have a bigger effect on the world market… but it seems like it’s business as usual for pairs not involving the big news events this week (USD or GBP), minus maybe a slow down for the holiday? I’m currently considering watching markets that don’t involve those. Thanks for your input.
December is a quite strange month yeah. Even more with this Brexit saga and everything else like you said. My personal advise as not a professional trader (also like you) is to quit the market and relax. It`s a holidays after all. Chill and be with your family. If you want to do some trading then train with some demo.
Even if I trade signals in the daily, this month hadn’t been good for me as a swing trading
I suggest you to trade only 90% odds trades, if not, dont trade, dont be lenient about your rules
Regards
You are right. It is going to be a very rough couple of weeks ahead. Pay close attention to the news before you place long term trades. For now scalping the market is safe system. However, if you pay attention and know what you are doing you could make huge profit on the price spikes ahead.
Sorry, but this is like the worst advice I have ever seen in Forex Trading, in my entire life.
Liquidity getting thinner, higher probability of big movements without guaranteed stop losses and scalping is a good idea? A 1% stop loss of 5-10 pips, can potentially turn into you owing money to your broker. See AUD, NZD and JPY at the beginning of 2019.
Sorry but I scalp and swing trade all the time. Successful I might add. I don’t think jennyscott mentioned anything about scalping with no stop loss and I am confused by your comment that a 1% stop loss of 5-10 pips can potentially turn into owing your broker money. Yes there could be slippage in a big spike that hits your stop loss but I have never seen slippage that will wipe out your account. Unless it is a very small account.
When you scalp or swing it is not a set and forget trade. It is a trade that you monitor closely and get out at the first sign that you are on the wrong side of the trade.
At this time of the year I wont trade as there is not enough liquidity in the market to trade effectively.
Well, I’m happy for you if you are successful. I have nothing to gain from this, just warning someone who asked for an advice and believed in a very dangerous comment.
December 12th 2019, end of New York session, all GBP pairs moved more than 200 pips without a single chance to close the position for a few minutes, even if you had a stop loss.
Note that this happened after I wrote that message. A stop loss of 1% on 5 pips scalping would have been a loss of 40% of your account;
Small or big account, there is no difference. If you risk 1% of your account, it’s 1% on a million or 1% on $10. In the case mentioned above, you would have lost 40% in any case. The difference is that you would have lost $400,000 with the first account and $4 with the second. In any case, 40%.
Then you started trading this year, maybe
11th of March 2011, USDJPY lost 400 in a few seconds, due to the tsunami that destroyed the nuclear power plant. Stop loss didn’t work and could not save you.
15th of January 2015, EURCHF dropped 4000 pips (a loss of 800% of your account, with a risk of 1% on 5 pips) in a few minutes; stop loss didn’t work and could not save you;
7th of October 2016, GBP/USD lost more than 800 pips in 2 minutes, stop loss didn’t work and could not save you;
25th of December 2017, EUR/USD lost almost 400 pips in 3 minutes, stop loss didn’t work and could not save you;
2nd of January of this year (2019), USDJPY and AUDUSD (and others) lost hundreds and hundreds of pips in less than 5 minutes; stop loss didn’t work and could not save you;
I started trading in 2007 and remember only these events. I’m sure who started earlier, can tell you more about how scalpers felt very confident right before selling their houses to repay brokers
I do not want to contest the main points in your post - that unexpected price moves can gap across stops and eliminate accounts, and that scalpers are especially vulnerable to these moves. I support these points and think your posts on this have been invaluable.
But scalpers won’t listen.
Just to underline your points though, 5 of the 6 events you listed would have hurt the trader who was counter-trend. The sixth event you listed I can’t actually pin down - 25/12/17, No.4 above.
I take an uptrend as being where the daily 20EMA is above the 50, and both are sloping upwards. Reverse for a downtrend. I’m not saying scalpers shouldn’t scalp or scalp counter-trend because they won’t listen anyway, ts a waste of typing. But I am saying to the long-term traders, follow the trend, and you should at least avoid the majority of career-ending calamities like the ones listed above.
A reply that makes sense. My point was not about trading style, though. Trend follower or counter trend catcher, you might be lucky (or good) to be in the same direction of the flash crash, but you can’t deny that the risk to get burned is there.
If you trade with 1% in 100 pips, you get tanned. If you trade with 1% in 50 pips, you get slightly burned. If you trade with 1% in 5 pips, you are running into the flames.
I was replying to the sentence: "For now scalping the market is safe system."
I’m not against scalping. I personally don’t do it, but everyone is free to adopt the trading style that best suits his/her personality. Saying that scalping is very safe, in this period, with lower liquidity and UK election that was looming over the market, I think it’s a terrible advice. That’s just it
The points you make here maybe valid. But here is the thing.
Who are you to rudely tell another trader IE: jennyscott that her comment was the worst piece of advice in your entire life. I don’t see that as offering friendly advice I see it as being arrogant and rude.
Secondly who are you or anyone else to criticise anyone who chooses to trade scalping the market. YOU DON’T. Everyone has the right to trade however they feel is best for them and at the end of the day gives them a profit.
And this message goes to tommor as well.
Maybe you need to check your attitude at the door before entering this room.
I’ve nothing against the scalpers who are making money - it would be senseless to tell them to stop or change what they’re doing. But they’re the top few % of the many who try it and fail, or the many who are trying it and don’t know yet that they will fail.
I’ve had brand new traders who can barely open their platforms yet who’ve told me that what I do in long-term trend-following isn’t really trading. 'Course, they ain’t seen round 'ere very long after that.
Statistically though, anyone with a counter-trend position, regardless of what time-frame they intended to hold it, is at greater risk of a dramatic adverse price move than if they’re in a with-trend position.
I’m sorry if it sounded as rude. You can understand that when someone is giving an advice that can cost a lot of money to other people, I don’t feel like smiling.
I think you should read more carefully what I wrote. I quote it here again.
