Yeah, I was up initially over a month ago as well.
I did make a few judgement errors but they were a minority after I reflected the results in my journal. I noticed some single days especially on yen pairs would swing a large number of pips the opposite way. Even if they didn’t hit my stop I would have to forcefully close them out with a relatively substantial (e.g. 0.8% out of 1.0%) loss the next day according to the strategy.
Although my risk is approximately 1% each trade I always had several (8-25) open positions at a time which gradually dwindled the account down. One thing I didn’t pay much attention to was news events, as I thought most of these would be mostly absorbed in a single day of trade.
Currently I’m reading “Trading in the Zone” by Mark Douglas which I think is a really valuable book for traders. One of his primary messages he emphasises is not blaming the market, and taking full responsibility for your actions and results. I was running through different scenarios of the reasons of our results. It may just be our sample trading time is just not enough to give a good picture of the overall viability of Smith’s strategies. It may be that we are missing something crucial or maybe just something minor. Other possibilities are that either the strategies aren’t viable in the current market or that we are applying these to currency pairs that do not fit well with the strategies.
Also it may be that we increased our risk inadvertently from highly correlated and taking opposite positions in highly negatively correlated pairs.
Cyco could probably give a better insight. Looking at one of his histograms of daily % balance change there is quite a degree of variation but that is over quite a large sample size.
*Edit: Cyco posted as I was writing lol. Yep I think a break may be a good idea. Market conditions may not quite be right for the strategies at the moment.