This is great thanks - formatting is fine
Can you clarify what ATR Re-Entries are? is it simply entering the trade in the opposite direction once your ATR level (either 1x or 2x) is broken?
This is great thanks - formatting is fine
Can you clarify what ATR Re-Entries are? is it simply entering the trade in the opposite direction once your ATR level (either 1x or 2x) is broken?
The ATR Re-entry is in the same direction as a trade I currently have open. As many of my trades are āConqueror stoppedā at 2x ATR I have been trying to place a new trade as the stop passes the last entry position I have taken.
Without doing this as the stop passes the last entry point the trade becomes risk free, when doing it you return the trade to 1% risk each time.
I started trying this after seeing a number of trades continue to run out to 6+ ATRs with nothing between entry and exit. I am just being greedy and trying to catch a few more pips.
Once I have a reasonable number of trades (100+) then I can tell if it is truly useful, or if in general the last entry (which always tends to make a small loss) will outweigh the bigger gains made by the earlier Re-entries
ahhhā¦ so effectively you are kinda playing double or nothing,
2 x ATR = Break Even (1 lot minus 1 lot)(which kinda sucks coz it already has moved a full 2 x ATR)
4 x ATR = you now have 2 lots going - lose 1 for being stopped out (Gain 1 lots)
6 x ATR = 3 lots going - lose 1 for stopped out (gain 2 lots)
hope it goes well for you, especially if you keep trading high ATR pairs like GBPNZD, keep gaining those 1500 odd pips per month!
Hi Cyco,
I just had to write in order to subscribe, but more importantly to congratulate you on your fantastic success with following Courtney Smithās strategies.
It was one of my very first books I read when I started trading 2 years ago.
I was still completely inexperienced with proper trading and money management, but still made some great trades with these systems. Then I got greedy and switched to lower time frames in the hope of āmaking more, fasterā. More like ālosing it all, fasterā.
After finding this thread, I am in awe. It seems that 2 years of experience has brought me full circle and that I am now in a much better place to trade these systems the way they were intended.
Thank you for sharing your progress! Itās truly inspiring and I understand from other great traders on here that sharing your progress in public helps you become better yourself.
Good luck, Iāll certainly be following along.
Take care
very cool indeed
Absolutely correct.
I have spent several hours this weekend sorting out the trade history and adding some more functions to my spreadsheet (now approaching 1.5Mbā¦) so here are the corrected Conqueror and Re-entry data (using the same format as above):
Conqueror ___ 74 ______ 48.43 ______ 43.24 _____ 3,584
Re-entries ___ 20 ______ 22.43 ______ 35 ________ 448.7
Other data extracted tells me since I started Smithās system Iām averaging 11.04% return per month, or 0.54% per day with a best day of 17.52%. This data excludes weekends, and extra amounts input.
cyanidez; I wish you all the best in trading now you have come to realise what you learnt early on!
Cyco, do you use the Rejection Rule as taught in the channel breakout chapter? It seems legit, Iāve always been using it but would like to know if your results reflects this method.
Thanks bud, keep it up!
cyanidez, Yes I use the rejection rule. From my reading of the book it should be used each time the market flattens and then rebreaks the channel line. I will not necessarily exit the entire position at this point, sometimes I will only partly exit it - not Smithās flawless execution - but it depends if the other systems are still showing positive entry signs or not.
Hey Cyco, those are great results. Congratulations!
I was trying to backtest some of these methods and I tried trend analysis on the EURUSD for just this year so far and the results were pretty bad. 3/7 winners with total pips of more than -500. I can see why, it was basically whipsawing around. Did you have a similar experience in this pair with this method for this time period?
mozdef, There has been some whipsawing, did you use Smithās ADX filter (must be rising) on the entries, and Bishop the exits?
I have taken 2 trades on that pair this year:
9/5 Short 1.29304, exited 4/6 1.25122 gain of 418.2 pips
5/7 Short 1.24066 exited 17/7 1.22949 gain of 111.7
Cyco, I always wondered about that one. Does it mean āADX rising right now when you get the signalā or does it mean ādid the ADX close yesterday, risingā?
How do you look at it?
Thanks man! Also, very curious about your current positions. Mind sharing?
hmm ok. so for the first trade I see that the last swing high was May 1st which is higher than the previous swing high on April 27th. So itās making higher highs. The last swing low before 9/5 was May 6th which is lower than the previous low on April 16th, so lower lows. So according to Smithās definition thats a āmegaphoneā pattern and you donāt trade that until you get clear direction. So on May 9th you should not have entered on a break of the most recent swing low (may 6). Am I making a mistake somewhere? Also the bishop wouldāve gotten you out of that trade on may 20/21 for only about ~130 pips?
btw Iām using smithās 3-bar highs/lows to define significant swing highs/lows and I combine sunday and monday as 1 bar.
thanks again
edited to add picture: up arrows are 2 most recent swing highs highlighted in blue. Down arrows are 2 most recent swing lows highlighted in blue. Horizontal red line is where you entered. Vertical red line is day you entered. hope that makes it more clear.
mozdef, looking at this your chart I took this trade incorrectly.
Thanks Cyco for confirming. Trend analysis would have kept you out of that entire trend unfortunately until the end of May by which point you finally had a lower high and could enter on the break of the most recent low. It would have resulted in a loss or breakeven trade at best though since it immediately reversed and headed up in June. If I could code I would backtest this over the last 10 years or so to make sure it is a profitable strategy. Smith says it is but doesnāt provide any back test results except for a few trades during a nice trend. Do you feel as if your current forward test has convinced you enough that these strategies are profitable?
The way the markets have been getting moved so violently by CB intervention over the last 2 years (witness Draghiās comments Thursday) it has reduced the effectiveness of some of the trend following systems (like Smithās).
I am still finding it profitable enough to keep using them.
After nearly 8 months my Smith systems have me at 13,689.8pips. Add in my re-entries and my reversal signal on the Bishop exit and Iām at 15,703.1pips. I see no reason to change what Iām doing at this stage - other than to keep throwing money into it as fast as I can
Hi Cyco,
Thanks again for all your replies.
Am I right in saying that you place buy/sell orders and then just leave it to get filled, instead of sitting and waiting for a signal? I believe this is the way to do it.
If so, regarding ADX, do you then filter placing your [I]orders[/I] based on whether ADX is rising or not? That is the only way I can think of how we could use the ADX to filter out some Trend Analysis / Channel Breakout trades.
So, you see if the previous day closed with a rising ADX and then place the order or not?
Thanks man, take care, good luck for the weekās trading!
cyanidez, I will place a stop order on the 55 day channel or significant High/Low if the market is heading in that direction and ADX is flat or heading up.
I donāt bother with placing the order in the other direction, as it will be against the trend, and may be too fast a move for ADX to respond to (it has some lag), and it tends to make the charts very messy to have parent and contingent stop orders all over the place!
The ADX filter is also implied in the book to apply to Conqueror trades too
Very cool, thatās exactly how Iāve been using it as well. Always good to confirm Iām not messing it up.
I hear you about the orders in the obvious direction only, because after a while my orders list just start looking ridiculous hahaha!
Great, thanks a lot for the reply, good luck for the weekās trading.
Cyco, howās the week going so far? Mineās not bad at all
How is your scaling in doing these days? Itās seems to be a very cool concept and even more so by having clear entries at 2x ATR.
My week has been fairly quiet so far, I had a lot of trades close late last week and went into the weekend with only 4 open. This may be a lot to some, but I am used to 20+. Iām now back up to 11 open trades, and looking at a few commodity trades as well.
I have channel entries set up on Gold and Silver which where looking a lot more likely to enter long over the weekend than they do today, but Iām leaving them on the charts.
I did have an account contraction of 0.7% for July, bringing my average monthly gain back to 9.73%.