DIlemma - What's to do?

Around 1.1780ish, my notes aren’t super clear

Yeah, that’s the ticket, hey F, these trades are doomed to failure

The Ever Grim Reaper VIPER

Perhaps V - but if so I’m still at 1% of account for loss ! :slight_smile:

Subordinating the trade to protection of profits in order to avoid a purely notional loss is emotion-driven trading. It can have a good outcome only by chance.

Yeah, but it is an unnecessary loss, by looking at the market structure and context all you have to do is apply the SOH strategy and wait.

The Ever Wondering VIPER

Total loss projection is 1.18%

ok @TradeViper Viper, I Know you’re a man of knowledge, but I’ve only been here 2 weeks, so I don’t know How Good you are !

Atm I sit in position with a most exactly break- even (at 1770 I’m £70 up as we speak.) My target, (which I believe in, sits 1.1870 and gives profit £3070 - a little over 3%.

The stops sit the other side of the 618 and offer a loss of 1%. - So I am 3:1 reward risk - will I take random movement at 3:1 ? - Hell yes !

You may be proven right, I may be, or we both may be.

Poker shows that you are only about 6:4 underdog with almost any 2 cards against an All-in and the worst you can be is around 2-1 underdog, so we need to look at the bet size against the pot size, to decide what to do.

What I do know is that having taken the risk of £1100 stop - out, it woukd be completely wrong to close for +£70 ! :slight_smile:

Let’ see how this pans out ! :sunglasses:

Yeah, no prob, but you will never see a poker game with a person named Yellen, or Draghi in it.

The Ever Traders Life VIPER

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Last night’s bet just got stopped out Locking in a £270 loss.

[Edit - Irrespective of the merits of teh position as a whole, that was plain BAD stop - placement at 1735 - ! The prevoius low was 1735 and retracements often go a few pips past the previous low / high, to trigger stops and provide some momentum for the upside. The stop was only 10 pips above the others, which held. Limit of the move was 1729. ]

“…It’s clear, as Draghi repeatedly mentioned, that policy makers are concerned about the strong and rapid appreciation that the currency has experienced, which is probably preventing them from making a tapering announcement at this time. The problem they face is, in not talking about tapering or, more importantly, suggesting that the program could be extended as it is beyond the end of the year, they are effectively confirming that tapering will happen. Or at least, that’s how traders are perceiving it…”

Hmm That’s interesting ! 31 months downwards, few weeks upwards and Germany is wanting to keep the Euro LOW ! - wierd - but valuable info nonetheless - Thanks Viper !

So back to no-man’s land again bet wise 1777 still negative with that stop-out at -£140. Proper stop placement and it would have been +£280 .

1784 breakeven - That loss of £270 has cost me a toatal of £490 so far !

Taken a short term up-bet 17829 after biggish plunge at 8:15 GMT (It’s actually 9:15 - but we’re still on “Summertime”

[Edit - I wonder what caused that ? :yum: ]

Ok so now dilemma time again. That was a short term bet, but is now 21 pips (£210) to the good - so do I close it - or do I let it become long term replacement for that stop - out ?

Ok deceision made - it is closed at 1802 for 19 pips £190.

I kept that as a short term trade, because it had noo stop loss and I didn’t have an appetite to set one below the double bottom, with only 70 pips upside.

All in all the big trade is £800 in profit now and in case I’m not about when it happens, I will enter a take profit at 1869 for the retracement trade. The original bet will be left to run so I can “See how it looks” at that point.

Without tat stupid stop loss placement on the best trade of all, the profit would have been £1690 at this moment. ( I am learning a lot from this trade. )

@tommor We are approaching that level as I type - but I’m not a trend follower, because whenever I try I get stopped out - I am basically a contrarian. That retracement trade was “A” Level as far as I’m concerned and adding another at - 0.618 was a great move, with a crap stop loss placement.

{Edit Seein as this is a paper trade, I may adjust my spreadsheet to show what the results of that would be. The probem to me is Assuming that is successful - where do we take profits ? }
I shall rember your advice here and may try it another time. but for now my strategy will be to lift the remaining retracement trade at TP 1869 and let the original bet stay on for a while.

Thanks a lot for your thoughts, but I have already tried soome new stuff on this one and don’t want to put more complications in.

@tommor - I have entered your suggestion on a separate spreadsheet at 1832. The stop is placed at 1783 which is a 50% retracement from the current high, which gives a zero risk, but no profit situation if I am wrong and the Law of Alternation fails to operate on this occasion.

[[Edit my spreadsheet is showing +£200 at 1837 and I have terminated the bet. Although I have 2 positions on the bet, they are at very different levels and I,m only £1060 up. A 20 pip stoploss here is just asking to lose ! - atb and thanks for the £200 ! :slight_smile: ]

Exits are the toughest decision in trading and there can’t really be a single right way but I can tell you my way. I never set a TP and never close a trade, they only close when a SL is hit (unless I need to close an oldest trade to release capital for a new one). When I have multiple trades on the same chart in parallel, all the trades close at the same time. Obviously, the worst result is for the most recent trade, which is a total loss, but the others are less painful. The loss on the last trade is the same capital as the risk on the very first trade. The next to last suffers a break-even, the older trades all make a profit.

e.g. A nice day-dream is to one day have 10 parallel longs on the same pair or index. Let’s say Trade 1 had a TA-based SL 96 pips below entry, so my initial risk was 96. When Trade 1 gets to +96, I move its SL to its’ entry and open Trade 2, also with a 96 pip SL. And keep doing that forever. Every 96 pips up, open a new trade with a 96 pip SL and move all the other SL’s 96 pips higher. Maybe when to want to open Trade 11 you’re out of capital, so close Trade 1 to release it. Otherwise, keep letting all the trades run until there is a 96 pip price drop, in which case they all close at once.

Onwards and upwards.

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Ah I misunderstood - you trade each position separately except for stop loss :slight_smile:

Ok - well we’re closing in on all sorts of doulbe tops at the moment, If it punches through, my smallest position should be around right to follow that advice.

I’ll re-open again and try it if that happens. :sunglasses:

@tommor do you ever use trailing stops, or do you adjust your stop loss orders manually every time?