Yes, Kimonz, I do have an update.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, I’m holding my position because the trend is not broken yet. There is also a divergence: price is Lower Lows and oscillator Higher Lows. I usually let the market kick me out by hitting my stop loss…I’m a longer term trader now.
IF the price did close below the trend line, it does not mean that the uptrend is over, Price have to go below 78.60 before the uptrend if void.
Are you still keeping the SL at 79?
Yes.
Just a side note: I’ll be hesitatnt to go long on Yen, because the Japanese goverment do not want a strong Yen. This was a news two weeks ago and the goverment directed BOJ to intervene if necessary. Will they do it? hopefully not when I’m on the wrong side of the trade.
I am with you on the same trade… We will see what happens.
AUD/JPY pair slip out of my radar but here is my analysis:
4-hour chart shows supply area changed to demand area at 79.50
Daily chart shows a start of an uptrend, so I’ll place a small position, Long AUD/JPY, when market opens on July 2nd (Sunday afternoon here in Pacific Time) Stop loss at 79.50 and open target but watching around 83.75
Rick
I have two analysis this weekend: USD/JPY and AUD/JPY (earlier post)
The Long USD/JPY position analysis:
Weekly chart shows a formation of an uptrend
Daily chart shows Friday is a Bullish Engulfing candle indicating a continuation of an uptrend
4-hour chart confirms the uptrend with a divergence between price (Lower Lows) and oscillator (Higher Lows).
I will leave my stop loss at 79.00 and open target but I’ll be watching 81.53
Rick
Entered Long AUD/JPY at 81.95 stop at 79.50 open target. This is a position trade and risk is 1%.
“The worst enemy is yourself.” Hearing this I wonder who will be on my side? My coach is not with me all the time and other traders have different style than I do. So, why is myself an enemy?
After analyzing charts then deciding and placing the trades, why do I asked myself, “Should I close my positions? I’m 50, 100, or 200 pips down now.” I start micro managing and ends up losing the opportunity. I examine MYSELF and found out that MYSELF is not my enemy. My enemy is not trusting MYSELF.
One time I went against my coach’s trade analysis. In the big picture, the pair was on the downtrend. However, my analysis was in a short term, the pair will retrace on the uptrend. He heard my analysis but I did not place the trade. After few days, the pair did retrace and he gave me a call to congratulate me. I told him I did not place the trade because of his analysis. He said, "You distrust yourself when you listen to others, you distrust yourself when you micromanage. Always trust on yourself."
My strongest supporter is MYSELF!
Rick,
I love this information you just gave us here - “When you listen to other you mistrust yourself” when you follow you analysis and TRUST yourself you will do well. Thsat is Big advice for every trader out there. TRUST your INSTINCTS always!!
First, thank you for sharemaster2, hopefully my experience will help others on their journey to profitable trading.
Update:
Both Long USD/JPY and Long AUD/JPY are still on an uptrend…no adjustments needed at this time. I’ll leave my target open but watching 81.50 on USD/JPY and 83.75 on AUD/JPY.
Rick
I am in both of those trades lets us see how it folds.
EUR/AUD reached the demand level and with the market expecting ECB cut of 0.25%, it will be wise to wait and see what will happen to this chart.
Rick
My positions for Long USD/JPY and AUD/JPY WILL STAY as is. These are position trade for me that’s why I have a big stop loss. Fundamentaly I’m bearish on Yen and both are carry trades.
Now the EUR/AUD watchlist:
The price broke the demand area and I’ll be watching to see if it will test the 38.2% retarcement FIB before going down again…that will be a better price to get in and to see if that demand becomes a supply area. See picture
Long AUD/JPY is still open and I still see long term uptrend.
Long USD/JPY also open and I want to show something with the charts.
-Inverted Head & Shoulders has formed
-It’s been few days and looks like sideways now
-Supply area at 80.40
Looking at the left side, there were 14 days before the downtrend move. Not really exact price but on the right side, the 14th day is July 12th. Tomorrow, FOMC meeting minutes during 11 AM EST; then on July 12th is the Japan Monetary Policy report. Who will start talking about Quantitative Easing? I’m betting Japan; FOMC stated already to extend Operation Twist up to the end of the year. So we’ll see what happen, I have my stop loss set and have my risk on these two trades increase from 2% to 4%.
P.S. USD/JPY stop loss moved to 78.60 and I did add positions; that’s why my risk increased to 4%.
I did my own operation twist on my Long AUD/JPY positions. Took some loss on my 81.95 to close since I did add positions on 80.91 to be positive now; this place my risk down to 3%. I’ll be watching first Supply area at 82.50, next 83.75 then at 84.60. Long USD/JPY still there; now waiting for the BOJ minutes so off to work I go and have a great day.
Closed all my positions due to weakness now. I was right on the FOMC but not the BOJ. Well, I am still positive on these trades:
Closed trades = -$435.45
Positive rolls = $753.67
That’s all for now, I’m going to sleep but will checkout EUR/AUD before close of US market.
Few pairs created an inside bar pattern and here is the explanation from James16 group:
I’ll be watching AUD/USD long for next week. The current trend is up and Friday’s bar is inside the Thursday bar and will go long when the next bar closed above 1.02588, then I will go long. It may also create few inside bars but it will be void if bar breaks the low; always go with the trend.
Initiated:
Long AUD/USD SL: 1.0230 Target: 1.0465
Short EUR/AUD SL: 1.1990 Target: 1.1800
Inside bar tarding with direction of trend
Rick
Closed half my positions on:
Long AUD/USD and Short EUR/AUD
Initiated new position:
Long NZD/USD
Previous candle closed above last week’s inside bar
SL: 0.7925
Target: 0.8095
Short EUR/AUD hit target with 115 pips
Long AUD/USD moved SL to 1.0350 and Target still at 1.0465
Long NZD/USD closed half of position and moved SL to 0.7979 and Target still at 0.8095