[QUOTE=“necre;545503”] HI there, Considering the recent intervention of PeterK, do you still wish to continue developing this system? I was wondering if there`s an indicator already build that can show the leveles. Such a tool would be of much help in backtesting the strat. Regards[/QUOTE]
Pls carry on to develop a system here, who knows, you all may really create a holy grail or something really similar to it.
Actually I am losing interest in this system, for two reasons. One being Peter’s explanations on randomness and the other one is the unexplainable nature of the disparity among various instruments being traded at the same time which I find is also related to the randomness. For now I’ll keep an eye on the thread hoping someone would pose a new criticism on what has been discussed so far. I believe tried my best to contribute with my limited capacity.
Hi Metin,
I think it’s a shame. You were going in the right direction. Peter’s inability to carry on shouldn’t stop you.
I have a question.
Do you want to make money or do you want to be right all the time? Because they are not the same.
It’s a serious question. You should think deeply about it.
Maybe then you will find YOUR Holy Grail.
Best
Steve L
Hi Metin you carry on you done yourself proud and I learnt some watching
I got a few views on all of this but better not state them all.
Have a read of this http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/turtlerules.pdf
Can you explain to me in laymens terms how to work out N and the process If you can thankyou I think the work process is poss the way to go.
I think systems fail because we give up on them when they loose and money is never managed properly
Loveislifes will work some of the time, not all, same as the Turtles and that is factored in.
If you ride the bad times the good will return
But you need a large start up fund to bank roll it to make decent money.
Its all about investment
You get out what you put in
And too many peeps here think they can turn $100 into a million and get peeved when it don’t work
And Pipity for me being here in forex I want to make money couldn’t care less of being right
But in my real world couldn’t care less on either just want a happy family and life
Be nice to earn a few quid though and am having a go
Lots of love to you all
xxx
I have been following this thread and it seems dramatic to say the least. I am a novice with little to no time and at the end of the day I just want to make a little extra money. I have actually been doing something so simple with eur/usd and gbp/usd and so far the last ten trades I have made have all been profitable. I think sometimes a basic and simple strategy is better than an Einstinean equation based on ideas that most people don’t even understand. Perhaps the best teacher you can have is yourself not some false person that in the end dumps his disciples. Only you can make yourself rich or poor and only you can make it work for you. Don’t rely on others like these guys as well as signals that are off the wall!
Best of luck to you all!
Hi Metin,
Would you like to work together on the themes already discussed to see if we can develop something ourselves? It is clear you are motivated and hardworking. I am too.
I don’t say I have a Holy Grail; but I think I know where it is.
I don’t want to do this publicly though, would you PM me so we can discuss it at leisure and without the distracting negativity which is an unfortunate by-product of these forums.
Why do I ask?
I have been struggling at this for a while and think a buddy would help with my discipline. I have a few ideas that we can develop
I look forward to hearing from you
Best
Steve L
Hi Everyone,
I think I must point out directly why I am losing interest.
You can find a few of my criticism on loveislife’s system on the first page. In addition there’s a misunderstanding about measuring the success of the system which is about pips. Everyone was amazed at the results because it was hundreds and thousands of pips. But in percentage it is not so great. Let’s say I have 4 trades on JPY pairs that bring 400 pips in a week while another trader has only one trade on EURJPY and makes 100 pips. I consider my choice was better than the other trader because my risk was diversified. But mine wasn’t better than his/hers because I have been more profitable. People are amazed by the number of pips in profit, not in percentage. So, before judging loveislife’s system we should observe the results on a longer period of time. Last two weeks, the amazement has vanished and people began to question the system which I did even when the system produced wonderful results. If people are considering to double or triple their accounts in a week or a month, they have already lost yet they do not know.
I started this thread to talk about this particular system but I feel that some people expected a challenge to take down loveislife’s system and champion a new one. That wasn’t my intention. Sadly few people has contributed on the discussion and especially after Peter’s offer the course has changed drastically. Then after his leaving now we are kinda disarmed. He shared his criticism and I am not able to respond this. Are you? Do you have anything new to say to criticize?
Now I have also come to realize that I was wrong in my assumption on diversification of risk. It isn’t so great a tool for securing positions unless it has a serious “what if” kind of basis. Just diversifying a trade on random pairs isn’t a wise choice.
I can’t PM you. But I like to ask you to share your idea openly here cause you can’t know who else will make wonderful contributions. If everyone had kept it all to themselves, you wouldn’t come across this thread and I would’nt have the chance to talk to you here. So I say let’s keep it public and ignore the distractions.
I haven’t finished reading the Turtles book yet. I’ll try to answer your question when I can.
Actually we are not trying to compose a system of complex equations here but only to enrich our understanding of the market and discuss this particular strategy. If you explain your simple method maybe we can integrate it with what breakout strategy offers.
Finally, I’d like to ask everyone to share their opinions. I put my two cents on the table and this is all I got.
Thank you! I absolutely agree. If you are risking 3000 pips a week unless you have huge amounts of cash in your account you’ll be making 50USD on a good week.
It’s all about the cash return and % you are risking rather than number of pips you get.
One might have a price action strategy with 1:3 risk:reward ratio and make 100 pips a week but he’ll be well ahead of this system by means of cash because his risk is very little.
That’s what I was trying to say by reducing the 15% risk,less number of pairs.
I still think the original version (First Strike Plus) can make more money and risk less but also less pips in a month.
Very busy these days. Just got back from work.
I’m working on developing means to place only one order in one direction rather than 2 pending orders per each currency pair. At the moment it seems like there will be several months that you’ll be flat (no trades ) but its better than risking/losing money that week.
As I said very busy at work and it’ll take a while to finish my study on this system and maybe it’ll be a disappointment but I’ll try.
I will explain what I have been doing over the past few days and post it here when I have a chance.
Ok Peter thanks for the reply I have gone through half the books so once finished I will reapply everything from this to see what my results are like on my current strategies / or new one 
… Metin keep up th effort. Will come back to this thread after i have interpreted the feedback from Peter…
Hi guys, interesting thread you have here, it seems like there is a group of people with common sense and eager to learn. You asked for opinions so here comes mine. please take any criticism like a constructive opinion because this is my intention. I have the feeling this is going to be a long post, and my english is very “basic”. My apologies in advance for both things.
Tecnichal systems are based on the assumption that fundamentals are included on charts. In fact most of the mechanical systems profit from the events that add volatility to the markets. I believe making discretionary decissions based on mechanical systems is inefficient and will most likely lead you to losses. At the moment you take this system and try to regulate it depend of your bias, the recent news, or a zone of support or resistance; you are losing the possible statistical edge you had before, you have no longer any statistical evidence to classify your system as profitable. Moreover, there isn’t any reason to use the old mechanical structure, wich has been designed to trade in a determined and rigid way if you are trying to predict the market. For example, a 41% atr channel lvl means nothing for the market, is when you use it on a statistical way, together with other tools or strict rules, that it gains value. This doesn’t means it can’t work, it certainly can, but is not efficient; you could find better tools for the same purposes.
In this direction, you can take a look at Goldenmember thread “Practicalities and Philosophies of Successful Trading by Goldenmember” While i may disagree with him in some specifics, I agree with most of his basics pointed out there. No need to say his myfxbook is really impressing, you will hardly find a better trader on bp.
I’m willing to affirm that the degree of randomnes on some pairs is higher than others. In addition, the power of diversification is limited. after many backtests, I concluded that 8-10 pairs were the most efficient balance among diversity and “productivity”. Anyways there was a thread where people was trying to find the most diversified portfolio in a mathematical way, sadly, i can’t remember its name.
the N value is the value of the atr, you can find on mt4, indicators–>osillators–>atr. If you put the mouse on the oscillator it will show you the value of the period. this is the distance in pip you should put your sl. The basic turtle system used a 2N sl, or twice the value of atr.
The market have changed alot since the turtles time… I have backtested the system with many variables and it doesnt work anymore, atleast on forex pairs. However the idea of channel breakout(donchian, atr channels, envelopes,kernel, bb) is still here and can be profitable in the long term, with few additions to refine the idea. Nonetheless is indisputable that the efficience of this systems has been seriously diminished the recent times, specially on the past 5 years. Markets are now more efficient and hard to trade that what they had been on the past. Anyways, there is still an important chance to profit with trend following strategies, and like Curtis Faith pointed out on his book, the way of the turtle (strongly recomended) ,when everybody is telling you that trend following trading is no longer profitable is when the biggest profits will appear again. There was a thread started by Cyco about the donchian system with some variations, It is called “diary of a position trader”. Nevertheless I don’t recommend to use a system without backtest.
Yes, you can search for an indicator called Atr channel, then put the moving average settings to 1, the atr number to 1, the channel multiplicity factor to 0,33, shift 1, and plot it on weekly charts. I’m not 100% sure, but I think it should work.
I agree, but this is not enough. Money management alone isn’t enough to profit, you need an edge wide enough to cover broker commissions, and to make worth the risk you are taking. Large risk:reward ratios alone provide a very tight edge.
Market is random most of the time, but not all. Just one example, what happens when a big new comes out? the currency starts to trend. Big trends use to have an economic/sentimental reason outside of the market. if we had a 100% random market without commissions, all strategies at the long run will end at break even. Knowing that market react to important events, and this events force trends, we can expect to have a positive edge by trading long R:R ratios(see Meihua thread). Another sign of the non randomness of markets is what Peterk has already pointed out when he said that the begining of a trading session is more likely to be the high or the low of the day than all the rest of session parts. Other traders would affirm market isnt random when it reach certain psycological lvls, or on certain periods of the day. The job of the trader, in my opinion, consists in identifing and exploding this situations when the market is no longer random. Finding the inefficiencies and benefiting from them. This shouldn’t be something discouraging!
pip values are useless if used alone. in fact, you can even have a positive balance in money and negative on pips.
Now returning to the original system used by Loveislife, i have a serious doubt about his profitability in the long term. When you posted the rules, i made a bkt using and old atr_channel breakout ea. The result was a breakeven after 15 years. However the results aren’t reliable, the distance between orders were too tight…
How to Improve this system?
What HasanF said at the begining of this thread, using a more flexible sl and tp values makes sense. Adding a general trend filter and a higher r:r ratio will help too.
To add some books to the long book list you already have, “trading in the zone” by Mark Douglas, One of the best books about trading psychology i have read. Also i find the way of the turtle by Curtis Faith to be a nice introduction to mechanical trading.
My 2 cents.
Hi Paw3000 (great name),
your 2 cents are excellent and thank you.
I hope there is more sensible discussion in this thread; it may have gone slightly off-topic but it’s not gone too far and the points raised are still relevant. Intelligent comments and mature opinions are what I came here for.
Best,
Steve L
Hi guys,
As I stated before, I was going to give you the method that I am using and you all can improve on it. Note that I am relatively new to forex but so far since I have stuck to this method over the past few weeks all has been working out well.
What I do is the following:
METHOD ONE
The EUR/USD has had a weekly high of 1.3500 and a weekly low of 1.3400 for example.
I look at the high and the lows for the week before and sometimes even further back. In most cases there are certain ranges in which the market has a tendency to stay between. For example (these are not accurate numbers but for times sakes I will just make them up). Now this gives me a good idea on where I can move and I can plan my very basic strategy. If the market has peaked and I see three positive candles on the 15min/1hr chart i.e. closing higher than the open and the current rate is HIGH, I sell.
If the current rate is on the low end I look for the same but I BUY and I set my TP at 50%.
METHOD TWO
On the 15 min chart, if there is a drastic drop in the price I wait for the next 3 candles. If they begin to move the opposite way or a sudden spike up I buy and put my TP at 50% of the entire set of sudden drop candles. I do the same for a sudden spike up but I sell and set TP at 50%.
There are just two of the little ways I use to get pips. My progress over the past days has been as follows:
FXCM Account:
(Most of the trades were EUR/USD)
+21
-25
+13
+17.5
+2
+4
-10
-15
+23
-5
-18
+19
+10
+12
+13
+21
+15
+3
+10
+1
+25
+10
TOTAL EARNED: 146.50 LAST WEEK
NEGATIVE PIPS: 73
TOTAL PIPS MOVED: 219.50
I stopped putting stop losses in the system and once I did all operations became profitable. I know this is a bit of a risk but I think this may have to do with the very volatile market last week.
On my XEMArkets account I took in 18 pips last week. I was only using it for the Golden Signals but I tried to recover some of my losses and did one transaction. All in all I don’t like the platform they use for mobile trading as fxcm has a much friendlier iphone app.
I hope this helps and maybe someone can refine this and make it more accurate and produce signals from this.
This strategy looks good as well I am a newbie too! I think stop loss is not necessary at all and we can make bigger profits without it. Thank you for a solid system.
Even though a stop loss is not used you have to be smart about hoe you trade. When things get out of hand I just let them sit and normally they work themselves out as long as they are in the range.
[QUOTE=“cnpforex;547097”]Even though a stop loss is not used you have to be smart about hoe you trade. When things get out of hand I just let them sit and normally they work themselves out as long as they are in the range. :)[/QUOTE]
Sometimes the stop loss does not get hit and it just goes more in the red till the point you will almost burst an account. That’s y trade with 2% for each trade is a good advice.
Perhaps the group can refine this method in order to implement stop losses effectively.
This thread rocks… learning so much from it. Thanks everyone!
Hi CNPFOREX,
I would strongly recommend a stop loss. Your system works well while the price is ranging but you will get badly burnt if/when a new trend starts.
The links I suggested earlier show that a large stop loss is a good idea to keep out of the daily noise and I agree with that but you do need to have a good idea about how much you can handle losing - don’t forget all the gains you made could get wiped out, or your account could get blown up from one trade that doesn’t go your way.
And I can almost guarantee that happening when a trend starts because when it does, price will be leave your range and your loss will get bigger and bigger - you may be tempted to hold on to it tighter and tighter in the hope that your system, that worked so well before, kicks in and brings the price back.
Be careful, thats all I’m saying. An efficient strategy for making money must have a very effective exit strategy to make money. The entry strategy can then look after itself. I strongly suggest you place a stop and stick to it before the market makes one for you.
Best
Steve L
Hi Guys,
I know this is off topic but if possible could you try this platform and let me know what you think - where I can improve etc. Spreads are tight and you can trade futures, spots and stocks. Please send me emails via babypips as the contact info on the platform is not fully set up.
http://www.hybrid-solutions.com/downloads/greencherryltd.exe