Does anyone know how to detect the end of a trend?

Hi,

What I use is RSI, Stochastic Oscillator and 50 ema.

From that I can see everything I need for scalping. Combine it with strong support/resistance and you be set.

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How often do you check these “characteristics” to see if they’re still in play?

At the end of each day, as I only use daily and weekly charts to identify the features I like to see in a strong trend. But you could develop your own characteristic features and these could come from intra-day or live charts. The good trend features you personally use should be in line with your strategy.

Do you set points for each feature? Or is it more gut feel when you decide to get out because it’s no longer a good trend?

I do give some features a bonus point because they are more important than others. But you can identify your own list according to your strategy, and then the strategy will also inform how many points you should allocate to each feature when seen.

Another approach is to have mandatory features - so currently in order to take a long trade I always have to see my main 3 features in place before even considering a trade.

Its worth playing around with these things in demo but start with the strategy first, the rules of the strategy will tell you what chart characteristics you should look for.

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That helps. Thank you for answering my questions!!!

Actually, those indicators are really from the system I’m currently following. :stuck_out_tongue: I’m looking at the 1h time frame and the daily every now and then. :smiley: Haha. :slight_smile: Do you have any system in mind right now? :blush:

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Hiya @ria_rose

thnx. I will PM you a system that I can suggest. But its depends on how you run the strategy, and always run in demo before trying it on live account, market is cruel they don’t care if its all your saving or not, they take it all if you are not sharp enough.

Good luck :rose:

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Thanks for that @campione! :smiley: I’ll definitely look into that system too. I’m not super smart so I hope it won’t be so complicated. :stuck_out_tongue: Hahaha.

Personally, I like the BLT and even club sandwiches. :sunglasses:

Try looking for the Hangman or Gravestone both very high probability candles.
It’s in the road signs.

I also think the three bar reversal is by far the strongest pattern indicator of a reversal along with being the easiest to identify that happens all the time no matter the time frame.

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You can never know for sure when the trend is ending.You simply can’t. You just need to setup your profit taking rules in a way that you’re comfortable with in order to capture as much of a move as possible. Remember though, you can’t have the best of both worlds.

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You can try to use classic trend definition stating that trend is a group of highs and lows, where each new higher for the uptrend and lower for the downtrend.
For example, if you see, that uptrend pullback creates new low - the uptrend is over.

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What Time frame chat do you use to give accurate information and signals for scalping. 5M OR 15M?.

I use support/resistant levels in this case! If market breaks any level quite comfortably then I keep continue with that trend; but if I see continuous tremendous numbers of counter moves & reject from that level, then I count new trend (but not each and every case).

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hiya @Luke_Ronchi for day trading, do you look at S/R of which time-frames to decide new trend is started? How do you accurately draw your S/R levels? Do you use any indicator based S/R levels? what if there is a conflict between your S/R levels and indicator based S/R levels occurs, how do you decide which one to depend on?

D1 is my favorite chart to drawdown support/resistant levels. I just use EMA20 as an additional supporter; but horizontal line is the best tool in this case.

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The issue I have with s/r levels is there is no objective way to identify what price levels they are or aren’t, nor any objective way to identify which s/r levels will affect price movement.

There are always resistance levels overhead and support levels below. How does drawing them in help your trading?
e.g. AUD/CAD
In the last 6 months, AUD/CAD has printed 8 swing highs: the first 2 were about equal but the next 6 were all lower. At the same time, it printed 7 swing lows, 6 of which were lower lows. So there was clearly a downtrend. The chart now had a dozen or more s/r levels splayed across it.

Until 24/10, when an outside day printed that was confirmed as a swing low a few days later when price broke out above the previous swing high. The lowest low in the 6mths, 04/10, was not at a s/r level.

Price then rose, breaking through and closing above the next 5 s/r levels but not the 6th one. It has now fallen back and closed below 2 previous s/r levels but yet not the 3rd one. So doesn’t that indicate that 5 out of 6 s/r levels were irrelevant, and 2 of them have been irrelevant twice? So what chance

Of course, there are other ways to draw where s/r lines should be so maybe my estimate is under.

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Hiya @tommor

  1. What are these ways?

  2. I assume AUD/USD has the same issue of AUD/CAD, as I burned with it twice while I tried to predict the direction…

Hi!

What I mean is everyone who uses s/r will have a different number on their chart and some of the levels will be different to what the next person would mark up. Show any two traders who use s/r to just say how many s/r lines there are on one 6mth EOD chart and they will disagree.

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Yeah I think the factor comes into your own strategy. Literally everyone draws S/R levels different. It can be due to their nature, how they see the charts, time periods they trade. What I might see as S/R on a short time basis most likely won’t be the same S/R levels a trader sees whose trading days/weeks/months. I’d say the easiest signs of reversals are chart patterns or just really looking at the chart honestly. You start getting a sentiment of a pair after you’ve watched it for a very long time. It has certain habits & quirks you’re able to realize instantly as soon as you see it.