Do retail traders need to shed their humanity to succeed?

Still no change with the ultra dormant GU. Still hugging the lows of last week but no impetus to push lower. Certainly, today’s US inflation and jobless claims data releases should break us out of this situation, one way or the other. The daily chart below shows how small and horizontal the price range has been this week.

But talking of economic data releases, how important is it for traders to study and understand these issues? Afterall, the price of nearly all instruments is ultimately driven by changes in supply and demand resulting from movements in “fundamentals”, whether it be forex pairs, indices, commodities, maybe even cryptos.
I’ll put my thoughts on this in the next post…

So the question is how does trading based on fundamental analysis compare with technical analysis? Afterall, it is the fundamental changes in economies and govt/central bank policies that create the pressures that move price.

Although it is both interesting and useful to take an interest in the fundamentals underlying one’s chosen instruments, I don’t think it is either easy or reliable to form trading decisions based on one’s own analysis.

One prime difficulty, especially with forex pairs, is that one is dealing with two instruments, each with their own factors and forces, and not just one. Therefore price direction is a relative issue and not an absolute one.

In addition, one is dealing with market reactions based on sentiment rather than standard responses to data releases. For example, if a central bank is forcing a mkt to slow down by putting the brakes on via higher int rates, then one could expect indices to fall. But if mkt sentiment considers the medicine right and necessary then it may well respond positively with its eye on a better future.

So while fundamental issues are interesting and provide good background understanding, they are difficult to use in the practical issues of trading such as immediate direction, where to actually get in - and, even more important, where/when to get out.

Whereas fundamental analysis is basically forming a personal view based on information data, technical analysis is more like making a video of what the majority of all other active market participants are actually doing - i.e. a moving snapshot of the majority pressure on price.

In trading based on TA, I do not need any personal view at all. My focus is 100% on what the charts are telling me about the activity of the majority mass. And that is what I want to follow. I.e. Although I might think mkts should react in one way, if the crowd is not actually doing so then why I would I want to put money on it?

However, there is one very critical role of fundamentals in TA, and that is to follow when, and what type of data is being released. With TA price is strongly affected by upcoming releases/ holidays/ meetings/ statements/ etc before they occur as well as after - and that needs to be recognised and built into one’s interpretation of the TA “video” as it approaches.

I would feel very uncomfortable trading TA “blind” without a close monitoring eye of the fundamental roll of events, but I try very hard not to take a personal view on them - I only want to see what the rest of the trading community is doing, that is good enough for me.

Just some personal thoughts on a personal trading issue. Others will certainly see things differently. The point is, as always, deciding what works for oneself…

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Sovos when you say you want to see what the rest of the trading community is doing at what point is it good enough for you?
Would it be confirmation of a trend with a combination of MAs /support/resistance and maybe a rejection candle or do you think of it differently?

J

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There are countless strategies based on MA’s, which have been around for years. Mine is not really anything different - except maybe in its objectives.

I have always used MA’s in my trading, right from Day 1.But a few years back I (and a few acquaintances) took an interest in Multiple Moving Average strategies such as Daryl Guppy’s GMMA method, as detailed here on BP as well:
How to Trend Trade with Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) - Babypips.com

I gradually felt this method actually had far too many MA’s but I was totally taken with the concept of ribbons formed by MA’s. I eventually settled on three MA’s, representing the short, medium and long term directions.

The slow ribbon formed by the medium and long MA’s represents the underlying trend (or lack of), whilst the fast ribbon, formed by the short and medium MA’s, shows when price is moving away from the underlying trend, either in the same direction or as the start of a pullback or reversal.

Sounds a bit muddled, but is clearer on a chart! :grinning:

I don’t look to trade trends as such. I guess I would call it impetus trading. I look for the start of a move whenever the fast ribbon breaks away from the slow ribbon. This can happen multiple times in a long trend. Whenever a new move gets going it generally sucks in a lot of interest that provides the energy to drive it further - this is what I trade, this initial energy.

I also track the typical number pf pips/points that such “legs” usually make on the TF I am using and use that to look for a PA-based S/R level in that region for my target.

The stoploss is usually on the other side of the slow ribbon, typically beyond a recent high/low before the move started.

So, in a nutshell, I use indicators (MA’s) to signal an entry and PA to select target and stoploss levels.

I have never found MA’s useful for exits as they react too slowly. Generally, markets tend to end trends faster than they build them. This is quite logical really. Once a trend starts more and more participants gradually join in over a period of time depending on their timeframes. This can last over a prolonged period. But a trend ends usually with an event that is obvious to all those already in the trend and they all tend to exit in a relatively quick period. So the MA’s that may have identified the start of the trend are too slow to show the exiting before most, if not all, of the profit has already been lost…

Mine is not a mechanical system and I employ a lot of discretion concerning forthcoming data releases/public holidays, etc and current market behaviour based on observing multiple TFs, usually Daily, 4H and 1H. That’s why I don’t generally post charts here other than to highlight specific points or observations.

As usual, just my own opinions and views. Different things work for different people! :smiley:

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Its a typical gloomy, colourless, October scene with the mists deep into the dark fir treetops and the last of the autumn colours still clinging to the spidery branches of the birch trees.

Rather more untypically, GU is still hanging around that low of last Friday, nearly a week on. Yesterdays, rather inconclusive data from the US failed to create any stimulus by itself.

But in a few hours we will see some important GDP and production data from the UK itself…will it give us a break before the weekend?

The charts still show a remnant neutral to negative bias but that can be misleading after several days of no movement. It is more due to lack of a move higher than any specific down pressures. Maybe that is about to change with the upcoming data…

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Great pics, what a beautiful part of the world you are in.

Gu is very tough alright. Gbp/cad is after taking off this week with Cad been mostly weak this week. Gu and Gcad to me had a similar uptrend daily but Gu ain’t following yet?

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I think I can say the same about your region as well? :+1:

The idea with the photos is to kind of link trading in with the concept of actually having a normal life alongside it! :smiley: This week would have been extremely frustrating if all one was doing was watching for a move on GU…

CAD is not a currency I ever look at personally, but I took a look at GBPCAD just now and, yes, it has been a nice steady move up all week, same with USDCAD (of course, since GU has been stagnant! :slightly_smiling_face:)

My main instrument is SP500 and I will probably comment more on that in future since it always moves even when there is no reason for it! My main reason for looking at GU was to try and get away from reading US election stuff- it is all so pathetic and childish, and yet the result is globally so important and potentially dangerous. I suspect that the world will be a very different place after the elections, whichever way it goes… :face_with_peeking_eye:

Well, after this week’s poor trading opportunities I think I can only go with a cheeseburger and no chips à la naturelle…

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Yes I live in the country here in Tipperary Ireland and it is definitely good for the head out taking in nature and your concept is good (with normal life and trading)

In my analysis I usually try to take in a broad view of all the major currencies technically and trying to match the strong ones with the weak but not always but this has not ever gave me any consistency ( more like death with a thousand cuts). I should probably focus more on a few instruments to help focus and understand how they react to news etc.
Looking forward to you commenting on SP500

Fine decent burger :yum:

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Well, we got a fine break to the upside with SP500 this afternoon, which put a smile back on the week’s results - as well as some chips to go with the burger. :+1: :+1:

There’s always life in the SP500 - just have to get the direction right, that’s all? - can’t be that hard! right? :crazy_face: :joy: :joy:

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Sovos may I ask you to look at this SP 500 H1 chart. Would you have traded something similar where I have marked and would you have a similar kind of thought process regarding where the emas started opening up 20ema going away from the 50ema?
The other 2 ema are the 100 and 200

I am just trying to visualize how you as a trader view things because the information you have given so far interests me a lot but I could be totally looking at things the wrong way.
J.

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Hi!
It seems we trade off very similar chart structures! :slight_smile:

Yes, that is one point that I would have entered.

I should mention immediately that, as I think I mentioned earlier, I trade in the direction of the trend but I am not a trend trader. I only look for an initial impetus and jump on the “enthusiasm”. It’s a bit like surfboarding (which is the name I give it! :smiley: ). One tries to catch the wave and ride it until it starts to exhaust itself. This usually means 15-25 points per trade. Then I just wait for the next “wave”. Sometimes they just fizzle out and one has to just close it.

I should also mention again that I employ a lot of discretionary input to my entry/exit decisions and, although it might look mechanical, I take everything on my chart purely as indicative and not concrete signals.

This is a 1H chart for this week on SP500. The little arrow at the RHS shows the position I took this afternoon.

I have added lots of circles and rectangles to highlight various POI’s “points of interest”:

The yellow rectangles show POI’s that develop on or around the horizontal High/Low/Midpoint lines projected forward from the previous week’s range. During this week, the Low POI was interesting because we had a big down candle but price subsequently failed to reach the low line and actually turned back up to the midpoint, which suggested an underlying bullishness.

The other notable POI’s were the series of yellow rectangles along the green high line. We hung around this area and returned to it several times but never actually closed below it. This again gave a bullish suggestion which also justified taking the long position this afternoon.

The blue circles show entry areas where the thin red EMA (14-period) is breaking out from the slow ribbon (which, like your’s is a 20-50 EMA ribbon with some added interims to give it identity and highlight the compression/expansion and angle of direction (this is purely a visual aspect).

If these blue circled areas occur close to the slow ribbon then it is a good trade with a stop on the other side of the ribbon. However, the red rectangles show breaks through the ribbon with big candles which need care as they are often followed by an immediate retracement, offering possible delayed entries on a retracement of traditionally around 50% of the move.

I also include an RSI which is 56-periods since this is a proxy for a 14-period on the 4H chart. I don’t pay too much attention to this but it can support the direction shown by the slow ribbon and raise suspicions about a trade in the opposite direction.

I generally prefer to take trades in the directions moving away from the midpoint line as that suggests something “new” may be happening, whereas price moving in towards the midpoint line suggests directionless consolidation and price movement can be rather choppy as a result.

It is not my intention to put the whole thing here, there are many things that I will look at as time goes by and these notes are only to give some indications in general.

Although this mainly focuses on the entries, the real key to this and any other approach is deciding where to exit. Picking exit levels makes all the difference between profitability and loss. An overly optimistic TL and/or an overly cautious SL can ruin an account very quickly regardless of getting the direction right and picking entry points.

These are just some things that i focus on. I am not saying that are good, or even that they are right. But, hopefully, they give food for thought that results in some inspiration! :+1:

Have a great weekend!

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I simplified the above chart a little to emphasise the key issues, but I thought maybe I would add my normal version which has a little more detail of the ribbons.

The MA’s here are slightly different in that the 50 EMA is actually a 56 EMA and there is an additional 80-period EMA.

The reasoning here is that the “crest of the wave” that I look to enter on is the 14-20 EMA ribbon on the 1H TF. However, adding the 56-80 EMA ribbon also presents a visual proxy to the same 14-20 ribbon on the 4H TF. This provides an at-a-glance visual of the relative movement between the 1H and 4H.

This can be useful in avoiding some fake breaks on the 1H if the 4H ribbon is still strong. In other words, the break on the 1H might just be a pull-back and, in any case, likely to see some volatile price movement whilst the two TFs are contrary.

Here are some examples marked with red rectangles on a recent 1H Bitcoin/USD chart. The price breaks through to the downside on multiple occasions but the ribbons do not reflect a change in direction at all. I.e. beware of short positions in such setups!

However, whenever the (green) 1H ribbon is “riding” the (sand) 4H in parallel then there is, in all likelihood, a strong and enduring trend in place. In such cases, maybe a trailing stop might be the preferred exit approach.

However - a WARNING here:

Like all MA-based structures, there can be a terrible risk of multiple whipsawing whenever the market enters a prolonged period of directionless meandering. Take, for example, this recent chart for XAUUSD. It is bit of a nightmare even looking in hindsight, even worse when it is building live!!!

Ok, even here it is possible to eke a living from it by looking for quick trades and not holding on for too much - but that is hard to decide beforehand!! One good clue to a possibly consolidating price structure is the very narrow, and overlapping, ribbons . This, afterall, is one of the main benefits/purposes of MA ribbons instead of single MA’s (as described by Daryl Guppy in GMMA).

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That’s about all I want to say about my charts. This is not a trading system, it is purely a visual presentation of changing market structure. It is for the trader to apply their brains in interpreting what the visuals are suggesting.

Like I said above (somewhere), I don’t trade my own opinion, I only want to see what the majority of the mass of all active participants are doing. Price moves according to the majority view, and it is this that the ribbons show me - and I just follow along… :grinning:

There are so many, many, ways of charting price and trading it. This is just my way, that’s all. I am not recommending it to anyone, it might look straight-forward in hindsight on a chart, but it is very different when looking at the current candle and thinking about the next…it is too easy to pre-empt what is “going to happen” next rather than waiting an extra hour for the confirmation, and in that sense this is an “old man’s” method!!

Suitable for anyone used to sitting and fishing by a river for hours just watching their float, waiting for the nibble, waiting for the real bite, and never striking too soon… and just looking around and enjoying the scenery, the weather, and the sandwiches, and life in general - and not disappointed to go home without a catch because it is just good to enjoy being a human in this world of ours :innocent:

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Age is a funny thing. We always count the years since birth in declaring our age. But there are several different ages that describe our lives and how we live it:

There’s the calendar years (how old to drive a car)
There’s physical age (how much physical activity we can endure and even want to)
There’s mental age (how much are we interested and involved in the world around us)
There’s community age (how much are we involved with our family, friends, colleagues, community, etc)
There’s the spiritual age (when we question and find peace in where, and why, we are in the universe)

Aging is a natural process and we can do a lot to get the most out of it. Physical, mental, spiritual, social aspects are all important. And maybe the greatest fortune is when one can look back on it and say, with satisfaction, it was good. it is never entirely in our own hands, but we can always make the most of what we have got. The grass is also green on our own side of the fence, even when we are trying to climb to the other side…

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Thanks again Sovos,

Definitely food for thought, as you say

I will set up the Gamma on my charts and do a bit of forward testing and see how that goes, obviously I am not going to be trading the same as you but you are giving a good structure to me at least and great to hear your personal reasons for entering or staying out of a trade

No that is not my structure, it is only from reading and following what you were saying in this thread and other threads that I designed it that way, so I was just asking was I kind of picking it up as you were describing.
J

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So, it seems, I can still recognise my own approach when it is presented to me! :grin:

So dementia has not quite settled into the hayloft yet! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

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Remember the novel/film “The Wizard of Oz”? The central part of the story is The Yellow Brick Road that Dorothy Gale and her friends have to find and follow in order to reach their destination and fulfil their wishes.

Dorothy begins looking for it and finds many different pathways and roads nearby, (all of which lead in various directions). Then, finally, she finds one paved with bright yellow bricks. It leads her, and her friends that join here along the way, (the Scarecrow, Tin Man, and Lion), each on a personal quest to seek fulfillment and to discover their true desires and qualities.

It is said that the Yellow Brick Road symbolizes both a physical and metaphorical path towards self-discovery, growth, and the fulfillment of wishes and dreams…

We could similarly ask, “Is your strategy your own Yellow Brick Road”? Is it leading you towards fulfilling your ambitions? Or is it going round and round in circles? Or is the road itself ok - you just have difficulty staying on it? and keep drifting off in other directions?

“Do you suppose there is such a place, Toto? There must be. It’s not a place you can get to by a boat, or a train. It’s far, far away. Behind the moon, beyond the rain…Somewhere over the rainbow Way up high, There’s a land that I heard of…”

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Never another voice like Judy :hugs:

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There’s classics…and then there’s real classics! :smiley:

The index got off to a good supportive start this Monday, looking to rise from Friday’s close to Friday’s highs.

But there are no significant data releases today and it is Columbus Day in the US. Although the stock market is open, the Day is still a federal holiday and trading could be quite light and directionless.

The next input might come next Thurs when we have Retail Sales and Jobless claims in the US. In the meantime there is quite a collection of releases and talks for both GBP and EUR throughout this week.

I am looking for a pullback on SP500 during the week to re-enter - but as long as it remains above the open for last week’s range.

We are only a few week’s away from the US Presidential Elections and the market is vulnerable to increasing volatility arising from a build-up in rhetoric and actions from both camps as voting day draws nearer.

The “race” is still very much a 50/50 status and a strong focus is being placed on the swing states which most likely will determine who wins.

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