Does anybody know of a link(s) where somebody could get a hold of those reports IN REALTIME of how many long and short orders there are pending for a given commodity, currency pair or futures index? You know the type of information I’m talking about - like how many shorts or longs are pending and at what levels.
I can get this information on my Level II platform at Delta Trading BUT this is ONLY showing me Delta’s clients - not the market as a whole.
I know where to get this information for Gold but it is historical so it does not help much.
Is this information sort of ‘broker only’ or not?
The reason I ask is that I have noticed lately that particularly with things like the DOW and the DAX there are certain significant ‘physcological’ levels where stop orders have been placed (whether long or short it does not matter). Once these stops get hit they tend to cause a retractment from what I can see.
For example (let’s see how close I am):
The DAX 30 or L-DAX is eyeing the 8000 mark (7900 - 8000 today?) and I’m willing to bet that there are whole lot of short stops at around the 8000 mark and the moment these things are hit the price will fall (substantially?) before turning around and heading up again - let’s see if I’m learning anything!
Again - I know this is not a ‘strictly forex’ question BUT this type of information could be very useful for trading currency pairs as well.
The best place I have seen for this information it TopGun. This is a software program that you can get though leveragefx.com but in order to get this info you have to keep a balance of $1000usd. This software is built for scalping and has alot of bells and wistles. So it is easy to get caught up in info over load. but it is a good program.
Hope this helps.
That’s a problem for me - I already have three accounts at different brokers - opening another one is just not a good idea UNLESS you are SURE that the information provided does not ONLY relate to leveragefx’s clients but to the markets as a whole. I’ll have to go there and ask them.
On the other hand - once again - I was wrong (well partly). The German DAX 30 (or L-DAX) (and the ‘full’ DAX) went straight through the 8000 mark - not by much - and then retraced (I won’t say retracted because the move was back to just under 8000 and 8000 was not a Fib level). I’m sure that the retrace was not because of short stops (or short entry limits for that matter) being triggered - so I was wrong on the magic number BUT I do believe that there are a whole lot of these hanging around somewhere above 8000 - I just want to know where. Popular opinion (now anyway - since Friday) seems to be around 8137 (the all time high).
Put it this way - I KNOW this works with Gold - as I have been following this Gold / Silver thing now for months - and you can pretty much trace the movements (historically anyway) by looking at the number of institutional net longs or net shorts at a given time. I’ve been holding on to a s**t pile of Gold longs for nearly two months now (fortuanately they are not subject to interest or this figure would have exceeded anything I make WHEN Gold goes to $700.00). If I have learned nothing else in the past couple of months - it’s patience - something I did not have a lot of before starting this business in earnest!
Anyway - like I said - I’m almost sure that this applies to currency pairs as well. I mean to say I can see on my Level II platform at Delta where pending orders (on both sides) are sitting above and below the market maker (Delta) (there are some REALLY hopeful people out there if you look at the price of some the entry limit orders for various currency pairs but the scary thing is that these orders and stops WILL eventually get hit - it’s just a matter of when).
By the way - I saw it happen again yesterday - just before the US Non-farm Payrolls figure - the dreaded ‘spike’ - anyone else see this? It even affected the DAX i.e. just before the figures there was a very nice spike down (and yes it was a spike i.e. the price moved down for a ‘split millisecond’ - there is no way that was a valid trade - the price was too far away from the current price) - to clear any long stops - which begs another question - do you really want to tell me that the brokers don’t have information that we don’t have i.e. before the figures come out? I mean - do you think that they spike the price based on analyst predictions (their own and others) in the right direction and get it right EVERY SINGLE TIME without that type of information? I don’t think so. I’ve seen it happen when the figures come out worse than expected but guess what - the spike is always in the right direction! Go figure!
Anyway - I digress.
There has to be somewhere where information like this is stored. I suppose the information that I am looking for is where the brokers limits and stops are sitting - not where OUR limits and stops are sitting.
With all the different banks around the world, sounds like an impossible request.
However, I picked up a copy of Investors Business Daily, and they had currency futures information, I believe it was for the end of day figures too for the major currencies.
Comments about commitment of traders has been helpful also even though that is almost a week old by the time I usually read about it. Like last week’s comments about how Dollar bulls were in positive territory for the first time t, I think it was for the first time this year should see results on this in the next week.
I’ve been following the bond market and saw that IBD noted that bonds were at a 9 month high, so the Europeans can no longer successfully speculate against the USD cause the bond market is no longer pricing in a rate cut for the remainder of the year. With the nonfarm payroll? on Friday, that may be the last of hope for pricing in a rate cuts for the year.
I’ve been thinking that the Euro is overbought with the above news, cause the two biggest economies have close to 10% unemployment in France and Germany whereas USA is at 4.5% unemployment. Bonds will continue to have a spread in favor of USA bonds with 5.25 and whatever it currently is for the Eurozone. So I don’t see any hope for the Americans rate cuts with the commodity markets the way they are- going up-, the Fed wants a 1-2% inflation rate-which was what was indicated by the latest numbers, but the Fed seems very cautious about cutting rates over a one time #. Who knows with this Fed group?
You would think that 4% would be as high as the ECB would want to go considering their unemployment rates, and that member states would want to cut taxes to become more competitive.
Hey Dpaterso,
You pack alot in a blog, I think I have some answers for you so I ll try my best.
As far as Leveragefx.com goes I think it has what you are looking for. Maybe not exactly but pretty close. They have a chart that I have not seen anywhere else. It is a chart that tells you what the banks are doing (buying or selling). This can be useful or like I said info overload. Another part about them is that you can sign up with paltalk.com . This is a free chat room site. They have a room called “topgun” something like that. Just do a search for forex and you will find them. This is a good place to goto becuase they all (for the most part) use leveragefx.com and they chat all day long about trading, stragities and answering questions people post on the room.The best part is that if you are there just to be an idiot they will bounce you from the room and you cannot get back in. But like I said this is mostly set up for scalping. They also talk alot about gold.
As far as your “conspericey theroy” My unprofessional opinon would say that you are a little pairnoid. I dont know about the rest of the world but here in the U.S. We have laws about that sort of thing. Just look at Martha Stuart. The reason that banks get it right all the time is (my unprofessional opinion) because.
It just seems like they are always right because of thier high winning %
The people they have study the market 8 hours aday 5 days a week.
Good morning, and thank you both for the trouble you went to with those replies - very insightful.
mdetlh:
After reading your reply I think I need to maybe rethink my question or my logic or both as you are right (I think) - there are are too many banks in the world to have all of this on information on tap in realtime. However - that applies only to forex (once again - I think). Put it this way - I can understand that when I am buying or selling USD for example - there are hundreds if not thousands of banks that are either buying or selling USD at a certain rate and the brokers I would assume are going to the bank with the best rate (actually - I must tell you - that I read about a ‘system’ that the brokers ‘may’ use from time to time to make instant huge $$$ - they will find two banks where the price on the same instruments differs - and then buy HUGE volumes at bank one and then sell to bank two or visa versa. The reason this works is because their systems can be set up in such a way that this transaction would be executed instantaneously almost as if it were one single transaction. Obviously the amounts involved would have to be quite substantial to make a profit).
Anyway - once again - I digress (I have that kind of mind - too much going on at once and the worst part is that I tend to trade the same way)!
OK - when I am buying or selling forex then I am buying or selling (via my broker) forex from various different banks right (assuming of course that my bid or ask actually makes it out of the front door of the broker and that I am not just trading between the brokers clients - but - that’s another discussion)? But - if I am buying or selling DAX or S&P500 or FTSE100 - then surely I am buying or selling (eventually) from a single point e.g. Frankfurt Stock Exchange or NYSE? Somebody PLEASE check me on this. If I am right - then somewhere - there must be a realtime feed or something like that, at the exchange selling the index, of the amount of shorts and longs pending.
bazooko:
OK - I’m convinced - I will spend some time today going over the stuff you posted and check out leveragefx - thanks again for that.
As far as my paranoia is concerned - I have to disagree with you.
Put it this way - we have laws agains drunken driving (DUI in your country) BUT if I had one GBP for every person over the limit on a Friday night here in South Africa - I would not be trading forex for a living (I quote GBP because you get a lot of ZAR for 1 GBP - I’m the greedy type)! I know that I would make at least 4 GBP a month - from me! Joking around with you of course but I think you get the picture.
I honestly don’t think that it is my imagination though. It is something that I believe exists and as such I try and cover myself for it. I have accounts at three different brokers and I constantly compare price movements between the three to make sure that everything I’m seeing at one broker is consistent with the market. That might sound like paranoia BUT it does help sometimes. A good example: I bought a lot of Gold a while ago (still waiting for $700) at one of my brokers and on Friday night Gold started to turn and I then noticed that the Gold price differed by about $10 at one broker from the other two. I called the broker and it turns out that the feed was down (and had been down for most of the day). They reset the thing - problem sorted out - and what was a loss that I had been sitting on for two or three months instantly turned to a profit. Great feeling. Anyway - having said that - I had the DAX price displayed on two of the three platforms just before the payrolls data and on only one of them did a spike appear (obviously the one where I have a lot of DAX). As it turns out this particular broker nailed themselves. I was wrong about where the price was going to go and their spike made me about $1 800. Thanks. I have checked this out on other big time news events (I don’t trade the news by the way - learned that lesson the hard way several times) and this type of thing does happen for sure. On the other hand - it may pay to mention - and back up your theory about the laws in the US - that this particular broker is in Belize - close enough to the US to count - but far away enough to not fall under US law! (And don’t tell me to close this account - as long as you stay one step ahead of them - you’re alright)!
Anyway - I thank you for your replies - and I know that my questions are not strictly forex related - so I think - if it is OK with everyone here - I am going to see if I can start a poll - to see if there would be any merit in opening a thread dedicated to futures and the like - I mean - we are all one happy family right?
hi all - just joined today.
depaterso - i have a demo account with FXCM and they have IFR news for free - shows where the buy and sell orders are placed under the ORDER Flow button. They only offer 30 day trial - but it easy to re register. Hope this is of some help to you.
Hi, and welcome, and thanks for the info - I will take a look.
I see FXCM is advertising big time on Bloomberg now - I just hope that they are indeed sticking to their ‘no dealing desk’ promise!
I will need to check BUT I would imagine that this is the levels where FXCM’s clients stops and limits are sitting - not the whole market though - and - on second thought - I’m not sure that this information actually does exist as a whole for the market. I’m starting to think that the only way to get this information where it MAY mean something is if you could get the information from the LEADING or BIGGEST banks in the hope that their information is representative of the market as whole but I will have another look at FXCM anyway (looked at them way back but then came across all sorts of stories questioning whether or not their no dealing desk platform was indeed just that).
Actually - that is a point. Be careful of brokers that advertise no dealing desk for an arbitrary amount of starting capital (the cheapest quote I could get for guaranteed no dealing desk was $35 000.00 - up from there was $50 000 and then $100 000 plus). Now I am NOT saying that FXCM is a dealing desk platform BUT the reasons given to me as to why these quotes were so high was simply because of the volume of ‘small’ accounts being opened i.e. the more people on the network (Interbank) the more stressed it would become - and (I hate to bring China up here again) but I think they are somewhere near their 1 000 000 new account mark for a May alone. Now - that is just China - and can you imagine what would happen to the network if even a small percentage of those people were attempting to trade the news or scalp (which becomes workable with a direct Interbank feed). The point is - I have been led to believe - and this satisfies my logic - that by only offering no dealing desk and direct feeds to the Interbank networks to people with a fair size capital - the number of users is effectively limited - thus not affecting the performance on the network itself. Putting it another way - if every Tom, ****, or Harry that had $100.00 USD to open a trading account had access to the Interbank network what do you think would happen to the network? Comments?
Just read your reply. The best I’ve seen for real time quotes to offers and bids is through the EFXgroup feed even there demo has it for spot forex, but it goes incredibly quick from banks from around the world. They don’t manage the banks quotes like forex.comdoes-forex.com’s banks are Goldman Sachs, and a couple of others but I get the impression that they still manage the spreads through an in house system.
The futures stuff you mentioned, DAX etc, you are looking for something like the stock market, where they put up the volume so that you can trade like a stock picker, I’d love that for spot forex myself.
I’m curious to see what you find to see if you can top the end of day stats from Investors Business Daily, then the COT.
None of this info is available from the charting companies like eSignal or their premier competitor?
Dale,
You have a good argument with the drunk drivers but lets look at the sheer numbers here. The fx market is a $7,000,000,000 a day business. How many banks would they need to be involved and trade how much money in order for your conspirecy to work? I think that these guys are just more edcuated and have better tools then we do. I also have to give you a piece of avdice here. The hardest thing I had to learn in collage was to accept “Because” as an answer. Sometimes it is just not worth the hassel to get your answer.
Don’t worry - the hardest thing I ever had to learn was to accept the answer ‘that’s why’ to a ‘why’ question so I know what you mean.
On the other hand - I think you misundertand what I am saying - I am not saying that it’s the banks that do this - it’s the individual broker(s) I’m talking about. How can I have three different accounts at three different brokers looking at the same instruments on the same timeframe and only one of them has this ‘spike’ to which I refer?
mdetlh:
Thanks for the info - I WILL find what I’m looking for (eventually) and then I’ll post it here.
Hi Dale,
I guess I was reading you wrong. I have seen those spikes that your are talking about, but I cannot remember what platform I was on when it happened. What is the platform that you are getting it on. When it happened it was a demo account and I called the broker and asked them about it. I like to call the broker when I have a demo with them because it will give me a feeling on how they will treat me with a live account. Anyway they said that it was a computer error and they would adjust my account. I did not like that so I closed the account. I think you might have the same problem give them a call and if so close the account.
by John Murphy says in its chapter on volume and open interest that only end of day volume known as open interest is published with a days delay. So Longs and shorts in futures is misnomer cause they are all long and short positions for the opening of a futures contract. Now that was 1999. But I think your main point was to figure if someone was hunting stops.
Certain groups of people are notorious hunt stoppers. But who knows when those orders will show with any certain platform. Perhaps the best approach is to understand where the various techniques for catching trends, and identifying support and resistance along with the trend lines. I got a free email once from the Nison candlechart people which suggested that one could identify support and resistance via the candlestick analysis, as well as identify reversals, the main purpose of candlesticks apparently.
So the more I read up on TA, the more the maxim, TA discounts everything is appropiate, cause all that stop hunting and everything else related to the price is reflected in the charts in a visual way.
After reading the above stuff from Murphy’s classic TA book, the more I think that finding real time quotes that you are looking for is a fool’s errand. Understanding the charts and candlestick analysis makes all this financial speculation so much easier.
Hello - and thanks everyone for the replies so far.
Just to clarify:
I am not looking for this information to check for ‘stop hunting’ - we know it happens - I just mentioned what normally happens just before news data is released at one of my brokers - sorry for the confusion.
The reason I am looking for information like this is that I believe (if it is available) that it could help in making trading decisions.
To explain further:
Let’s say that you somehow knew for a fact (or at very least took all the information available to you whether by way of the media, fundamentals, etc. etc.) that the DAX (or Gold or anything else) had a target (all time high) of 8137 or that this was a ‘significant’ resistance level for the DAX. What would you do? I would place entry limit shorts at around 8135 my logic being that when this resistance level has been reached there would be a retractment. This retractment would in part be initiated by the triggering of thousands of these orders not so (self fulfilling prophecy). I have seen this happen with Gold over that past few months - no question. If you knew for a fact that there were thousands of these orders hanging around a certain level waiting to be triggered then you would pretty much know where to place your own orders i.e. you may be wrong about the resistance level but if say a really major player (‘da big boyz’) or two had orders waiting to be triggered at a certain level you know exactly what is going to happen to the price once those orders have been executed.
Ok I think I get your point. Are you not in cahoots with the Murphy book? In the back of his book, he discusses two advanced indicators designed for futures. He takes the total weekly data, looks for divergences, draws trendlines off the indicators and looks for trend reversals using those indicators, which account for the volume, open interest and prices.
Murphy’s approach is put a much greater weight on the weekly data. And I’m becoming a bigger fan of his some weekly strategies the more I read and think about his approach.
I hope you find what you need, perhaps you are already aware of the Murphy book and are trying to refine it with real time data?
sorry about the cryptic nature of the last post. But I think the closest I can find to what you are looking for is the Herrick Payoff Index. Its part of the advanced indicators chapter in the Murphy book. It includes the weekly volumes and prices and I think it was available with Metastock.
Reading the Murphy book has been a great education on financial markets in general. I can see why it is an essential part of the chartered market technician curriculum. Your post was a prompt for me to dig in further until I can actually trade something in the next year. Some people call the Murphy book a “bible” on trading.
I’ve found a couple of good trading tactics, and recognize chart patterns much better after reading and browsing through the book.