Does trading make any sense financially?

This is kind of scalping on a betting exchange, maybe? By backing and laying as prices fluctuate, or something similar? That’s ok if you’re actually scalping a market?

With forex, lots of people imagine they’re scalping a market, but all they’re really trying to do is scalp their own broker (i.e. their actual counterparty!). That can’t be much of a recipe for success when the party they’re trying to scalp has their deposited funds and gets to make up the rules and move the prices and can so easily take countermeasures against them, can it?

Yes, it’s Betfair I used to use. I was quite good at it, hitting 90% win rate but one loss could easily wipe out all the profit!

Yep, brokers can be tricksy! They have an edge though with the spread so can’t really lose over time.

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Some people trade forex like that, too - lol: holding onto losers and closing winners early, rather than the opposite. :sweat_smile:

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Yes, been there and now hopefully learned my lesson!

My guess is that most are probably not, really.

“Averages” are a funny thing altogether, though, aren’t they? In some contexts the median is actually a lot more helpful than the mean!

Maybe I’m too cynical, but when it comes to financial issues in general, and specifically things connected with their own money, I think quite a lot of people probably have unrealistic expectations.

I think that in these days of constant allegations of “cultural misappropriation” only horses are really allowed to bet on horses: anything else wouldn’t be politically correct, you know? :horse:

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I can’t speak for most traders, but I consistently achieve 10% monthly returns in forex though it took me years to get to this level. Forex is definitely worth trading if you have the skill and solid risk management. I also diversify with ETFs since managing my own investments has been more profitable. Great discussion, thanks!

Wow, amazing! Soon enough you’ll be giving Elon Musk some really good competition in the wealth department: at 10% per month, even compounding only once a month, even just a $30,000 starting-position turns into nearly $100 Million within just 7 years!! :+1: :smiley: :+1: :laughing:

As you know, of course.

Very surprising to see you posting in a beginners’ forum, though.

We can all learn a lot from you, I’m sure.

Anything much to promote, here, by any chance? :wink:

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About “forum marketing,” you must mean, I think? :sweat_smile: :stuck_out_tongue:

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Great observation…
I think that it is possible to consistently beat the S&P500 by a good margin year in and year out. All one needs is patience and stop shooting from the hip.
Let’s suppose you buy the S&P500 at some point and instead of just holding for that average 10 % return, you tactically add to that position over the next 12 months. Wouldn’t trading make sense in that manner?
It’s only unfortunate that we have been misinformed by social media gurus, who can’t even properly define the term “trading”.

Haha! :smile: Thank you so much! This is my first post here. I’ve been receiving the Baby Pips emails, which are always interesting, and this topic really caught my attention. There are so many beginners who don’t hear from those who have truly succeeded, so I wanted to share my experience in hopes it encourages someone. :slightly_smiling_face: I appreciate your kind words! I’m a full-time trader and educator, and I absolutely love being part of this industry. Stay blessed!

It’s possible as long as you keep the mentality that trading is a serious profession and not some get-rich-quick scheme.

It’s the gambler’s mentality that results in most unrecoverable losses.

SIA

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Trading is a mindset. If your attention is on getting rich quickly, you won’t last long in this industry.

The Correct Mindset In Trading (Mindset Of A Successful Trader)

The correct mindset in trading is often “the missing link” in order to perform well. To get steady returns you have to focus on the trading mindset just as much as the analysis and strategies. What is the correct mindset in trading?

The correct mindset in trading is one that is dedicated, focused, disciplined, confident, has no ego, has no fear of losing, and has detachment to money.

For those not into trading, this might sound a little weird. Most traders focus on developing strategies in order to make money. What does psychology have to do with quantitative trading, isn’t psychology overrated in trading?

If you have developed profitable trading edges and trading strategies, it’s time to move on to the next level, which is developing a good mindset for trading. The correct mindset in trading makes you follow your trading edges and strategies!

When you get experience in day trading or other time frames in trading you’ll discover that trading is certainly not as easy as it seems. Quite the opposite. If you can’t follow the rules of the strategies, you simply have no trading strategy. Trading discipline is what most traders need. The correct mindset in trading is what separates good and bad traders!

A trader needs to be dedicated

You should be relentless in developing skills in how to master yourself and your risk tolerance. Some traders love the action, others dream of easy money, but the really good traders think about how to develop trading strategies.

The work should be your goal. Money and action are just a byproduct for keeping score on your performance. The trading mindset should be about how to perform the best. Trading decisions are all about being truthful to yourself.

The success rate is in direct proportion to your talent, skills, work ethics, and truthfulness. Not everyone can become a trader. Mark Minervi was interviewed in Jack Schwager‘s Stock Market Wizards. Here is a quote from that interview (page 176):

“The fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions. In other words, take 100 percent responsibility for your results.”

Dedication to your job is thus paramount.

A trader must know himself/herself

This is vital in developing quantified strategies. You have to get an understanding of who you are and your personality traits.

What is the best personality trait for trading? Are you introverted or extroverted? Are you disciplined? Are you able to work on your own? Are you confident by nature? What is your aim? Why do you trade?

Trading is solitary, it attracts people that are introverted. The ones with intuition backed up by gut feel can get some kind of a game going in a few months or a year or two but not for the long term, in our opinion. The ones that back up intuition with thinking take much longer to get a game plan and they can last longer. Emotions can’t be part of any investment strategy.

Many want to “make a lot of money” when they start trading. They want to stay at home and have no commuting. The dream of an easy life seems so appealing. Occasionally go to the cafe and trade from there. They are about to get a nasty surprise when they understand the trading psychology is not as easy as it seemed.

Trading is an intellectual endeavor where most investors fail to make any money. Not only is it difficult to find trading edges and strategies, but you need to execute the strategies. The biggest obstacle is implementing your plans. You have to master yourself and undergo personality change in order to get your trading implemented properly.

A trader stays focused all the time

If you decide to open a pizza shop, most likely you’ll set up some plans for how to proceed. Perhaps making budgets and even some marketing research to check the viability of the plan.

Do you think a potential trader does all this? Probably not. But you need to have a business plan and develop some kind of methodology if you want a trading career. The methodology and techniques have to be linked to your dominant personality trait.

It’s better to have a bad methodology than no methodology at all. This takes time, a lot of time. You first need an idea, some kind of hypothesis, and then you need to backtest the idea to check if it has any statistical edge.

For some, this is the easy part. The tricky part is to execute the trading plan. It all looks so easy when you have the answer in front of you in a backtest.

The problem arises when you are about to pull the trigger. The future result is uncertain. All you know is the past. Self-doubt kicks in.

After a drawdown, you might lose faith in the system and stop trading, perhaps exactly at the wrong time. Therefore, you need to practice and stay focused on what you should do.

Try to avoid thinking in terms of money. The focus should be on execution. We recommend you automate most of your trading.

Trading Discipline

Discipline is for many a negative word. We quote from Wikipedia:

Self-discipline can be defined as the ability to motivate oneself in spite of a negative emotional state. Qualities associated with self-discipline include willpower, hard work, and persistence.

Self-discipline is the product of persistent willpower. Whereas willpower is the strength and ability to carry out a certain task, self-discipline is the ability to use it routinely and even automatically. We can say willpower is like a muscle, where self-discipline is the thoughts that control the muscle.

Again, Mark Minervi gives a very good analogy:

“The first time I seriously watched a poker game in a casino I noticed that the average winning hand was over 50 USD, but that it only cost you 50 cents to see the first three cards. I couldn’t believe that for half a dollar I could get a pretty good idea of my chances of winning a hundred times that amount. If I folded fifty times and won only once, I would still win twice as much as I lost. Those seemed like terrific odds to me. That’s how I got started playing poker. My strategy was to only play super-high-probability hands. Schwager: Didn’t everyone just fold once you played a hand? No, and you know why? Because they were not disciplined, and they wanted to play. The key is to know when to do nothing. Most people, even if they have a winning strategy, will not follow it because they lack discipline.”

Willpower, willingness to work hard, and persistence are not traits that many people have. No wonder this brings negative thoughts to many. However, trading is not a military boot camp, but be honest with yourself to check if you have any of these three traits. If not, trading can be quite hard.

A certain amount of rules are needed to trade well. Even the legendary trader Jesse Livermore used rules to limit himself from doing foolish trades. We advocate systematic trading based on quantified analysis, and this is of course rule-based. The tricky part is to execute the system because you need confidence:

A good trader separates confidence and overconfidence

The key to trading success is emotional discipline. Making money has nothing to do with intelligence. To be a successful trader, you have to be able to admit mistakes. People who are very bright don’t make very many mistakes. Besides trading, there is probably no other profession where you have to admit when you’re wrong. In trading, you can’t hide your failures. Victor Sperandeo

Trading is not different from any other demanding undertaking: It requires mastering the different stages of the learning curve and the quality of this learning process depends on how focused and disciplined the trader is in honoring his acquired skills.

If you’re confident, it’s a lot easier to execute your methodology. To become confident you have to acquire the mentality mentioned above. Admit when you are wrong and realize that being wrong is the cost of doing business.

However, there is a thin line between confidence and overconfidence in trading. Brett Steenbarger has written an interesting book about trading psychology, has a blog, and has developed personality tests for traders.

According to him, overconfidence is the worst trait a trader can have. Here is an excerpt from his blog:

Studies in behavioral finance find that about 3/4 of all traders rate their prowess as “above average”, despite the obvious reality that only half of us are better than the other half. This overconfidence, moreover, affects actual trading performance. Research by Terence Odean and colleagues finds that overconfidence affects frequency of trading, which in turn contributes to poor trading results. In one study of online traders, the group of traders favored high beta (volatile) small cap companies and tended to not diversify their portfolios. Their actual trading results slightly beat the small cap index, but after trading costs were factored in, they significantly underperformed the index. The most frequent traders were the ones who underperformed the index by the greatest margin…….One of my favorite studies of overconfidence came from the London Business School. Traders were shown price patterns and asked to figure out the market’s next direction and indicate their confidence in their prediction. The price patterns were generated entirely randomly. The traders with the highest confidence in their predictions traded the most frequently and incurred the greatest losses.

Steenbarger’s argument is a strong case for having a mechanical trading system. Certainly, this applies to those who tend to be extroverts and/or impulsive.

Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead… my guiding philosophy is playing great defense. If you make a good trade, don’t think it is because you have some uncanny foresight. Always maintain your sense of confidence, but keep it in check. Paul Tudor Jones II

A trader holds no ego and beliefs

They (traders) would rather lose money than admit they’re wrong… I became a winning trader when I was able to say, “To hell with my ego, making money is more important” – Marty Schwartz

Some people have a big ego. They need to be right. Some are besserwissers. These people can find it hard to trade completely mechanical. Somehow they need to feed their ego. This trait is prevalent in online discussion forums. They brag about their prediction accuracy, how they have made 200% in 6 months and why others are wrong.

But your prediction rate is completely irrelevant. How much money you make is what counts. A mechanical system can have less than a 50% win ratio and still make lots of money. Such a low win ratio is hard to execute.

In trading, you have to accept that losses are a part of doing business. In order to make money, you have to admit losses. For some, this is very hard. It leads to overtrading, getting stuck in losing trades, and taking home small winners. But to succeed you have to divorce from your ego. Leave feelings aside.

Good traders have detachment to money

Money is just a way of keeping score. A focus on money can be detrimental.

Brett Steenbarger has done a lot of research on trading psychology. In 2004 he published a paper with Lo and Repin called Fear and Greed in Financial Markets: A Clinical Study of Day-Traders. They investigated several possible links between psychological factors and trading performance in a sample of 80 anonymous day-traders. Here is a highlight of their findings:

……supporting the common wisdom that traders too emotionally affected by their daily profits-and-losses are, on average, less succesful………This suggest that large “emotional swings” occurring within a 24-hour time scale hurt trading performance the most (page 19)……our results show that extreme emotional responses are apparently counterproductive from the perspective of trading performance, and large changes in emotional state within short periods of time are among the most detrimental. (page 19)……For example, in a recent study by Fenton-O’Creevey et al. (2004) of 118 professional traders employed at investment banking institutions, they find that successful traders tend to be emotionally stable introverts who are open to new experiences (page 20)……Ultimately, we hope to provide a scientic basis for the kind of recommendations for trading success made by Gilbert (2004) in his summary of Fenton-O’Creevey et al. (2004): Be an introvert. Keep your emotions stable. Stay open to new experiences. Oh, and try not to be misled by randomness, stop thinking you are in control of the

situation….(page 21).

Money is a psychological obstacle. The best trader manages to detach from money and focus on trading. Think of your trading it as a long-term investment.

Fear of losing – what is that?

For introverts, the fear of losing can be an obstacle. Instead of focusing on what to do, you think about how much you can lose. You take profits quickly just to feel well. You might even end up increasing risk, even though you’re trying to minimize it. The biggest risk in trading is not getting the maximum profits from your methodology.

The fear of losing will slow down your trading, especially after a string of losses. Every trader experience this feeling once in a while. If that happens it might be wise to take a break. If you can’t follow your methodology, step back and reconsider. However, this simple advice is much easier to give than to take.

The correct mindset in trading: final thoughts

Trading is a probability game. Find a profitable methodology by testing and implement it. Diversify to several strategies (with the lowest correlation possible). Try to make trading as easy and smooth as possible. Ignore money. Feel detachment to money. Focus on what you should do. Keep it simple!

Trading is really simple, but still, most of us make it really complicated. The correct mindset in trading takes years of trial and error til develop.

The Correct Mindset In Trading (Mindset Of A Successful Trader) - QuantifiedStrategies.com

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Hey man, it seems like you made it, congrats.
At this point you have to be a millionaire, so why don’t you donate 10,000 dollars to babypips.com as a proof , for you it’s little money.

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Why ask a question and then berate everyone who replies?

Of course some people make 10% per month. That guy may or may not. And questioning that stocks have negative returns occasionally is bizarre.

I get the impression you want someone to show you their profitable results. I’ve only seen 2 people post that on this forum. Others I’m confident are profitable and most are newbies or trying to sell something.

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Fantastic elaboration on traders’ psychology here. Thanks Paul :1st_place_medal:

My personal mantra before I start my trading is focus, patience and self-discipline. Keeping it simple and straight to the point.

SIA

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SchmaltzHerring explained it well.
I don’t know if you are stupid or what. It’s just basic math. Nobody makes 10% per month.

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Extremely doubtful, John, really. But this isn’t the point, respectfully.

The point - exactly as the Herring rightly explained above - is that if someone had been making 10% per month for many years, they’d have over $100,000,000 in the bank. They wouldn’t be joining Babypips, and 6 minutes later making a post with an income-claim!!

And then a little later on, making another post announcing that they’re also a “trading educator”!!

One doesn’t have to be Einstein to understand that this is “forum marketing” and that someone’s here to promote himself and to sell a service, contrary to both the letter and the spirit of the Community Guidelines by which we’re all bound, here.

We all know that you’re an intelligent, sensitive and perceptive guy, and you know this really. :sunglasses:

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I’m going to politely disagree; it depends on what you are aiming to achieve with your trading. For instance, if a trader possesses a 100k account and generates 10% monthly, withdrawing that amount to maintain his account at 100k, he is earning 10k each month. The same principles apply to a 1 million account, where the trader maintains his account at 1 million while withdrawing 100k monthly for living expenses.

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Yes, this is clearly a scheme to exploit vulnerable traders who are seeking to get rich quickly; you would think in these times such tactics would no longer be effective.

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You’re totally right, of course. :slight_smile:

But as Theodore said, above, this isn’t actually the point. We can all see what’s going on, here, I think?

Equally respectfully, isn’t it better just to report it to the Moderators and let them act on it?

By discussing the spam posting so much, you’re all just drawing more attention to it, IMO.

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