Dollar Bull Waiting to Be Unleashed?

· Euro in Wave 3?
· Japanese Yen Decline Peters Out at 121.50
· British Pound Eyes 1.9680
· Swiss Franc Stalls at 1.2400
· Canadian Dollar – Can USDCAD Break Below 1.1600?
· Australian Dollar Treads Water Below .7900
· New Zealand Dollar Ready to Rollover?

EURUSD – The EURUSD decline from 1.3191 - a resistance trendline formed from the December highs – may be just the beginning of a big move lower. The climb to the trendline was accomplished in an a-b-c correction of wave 1, with 1.3191 serving as the completion of wave 2. Thus, the recent drop could be wave 3, which is usually the most powerful wave, taking price a long way in a short period of time. It will take a decline below the 1/12/07 low of 1.2866 to confirm that this is a 3rd wave, and a correction above 1.3191 would negate our bearish bias.

USDJPY – The USDJPY surge from 118.99 has continued to barrel on in what could be a resumption of the longer term uptrend, but with the recent rally a bit overextended, the pair has just encountered resistance at the 78.6% fibo of 122.21-118.99 at 121.52. With 240 minute RSI coming down from overbought levels, shorter term slides lower should find support at the 38.2% fibo at 120.22. For more on the USDJPY long-term picture, see

GBPUSD – Cable price action retains its upward bias for the time being as the pair has managed to stay afloat above the supporting trendline of an ascending triangle, which is typically a bullish formation. Thus, the next move could be a rally towards resistance at the 2/15 high of 1.9680. However, a break below the noted supporting trendline would negate the bullish bias.

USDCHF – Since overcoming the 200 SMA, USDCHF has since continued higher and looks to challenge the 1 year resistance trendline, which currently sits at 1.2517 and falls by 4 points a day. However, oscillators on the daily charts remain bearish and declines in price may test the recent lows and a supporting trendline which currently stands at 1.2306.

USDCAD – Caddie continues to consolidate after breaking lower two days ago. The price action has been contained to a miniscule 1.1630-1.1600 range and may well stay there a while longer. The down ward bias still prevails unless 1.1712 is violated to the upside but 1.1600 has proven to be key support and will need to be broken with conviction and held below those levels before price can make their way lower.

AUDUSD – The Aussie continues to tread water but the rally is still stymied by the 1/23/07 7939 high. The longer the price action stalls the higher the probability of the pair making a double top at these levels. Initial support comes at 7845, but if the turn accelerates there is little in the way of the decline all the way to 7700.

NZDUSD – The Kiwi may be rolling over as price action clings to the 100 SMA on the hourlies. A break down here could pull the pair to test the recent spike low of 6987 from 2/22/07. Only a recapture of the 7065 high confirms that the uptrend has more to go, but momentum slowing over the past 24 hours that scenario appears less probable than a correction.