Index Strat Risk Target EUR/USD [B]Short [/B] [B]1.3396 [/B] [B]Below 1.2330[/B] USD/JPY [B]Short [/B] [B]98.50 [/B] [B]TBD[/B] GBP/USD [B]Flat [/B]
[B]
Euro / US Dollar[/B]
The EURUSD has soared and is nearing the top of the false channel that has formed since the March top. Despite the unexpected rally, I maintain that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is down within the 5 wave decline from 1.60. Fibonacci resistance has been exceeded, which dampens confidence in the bearish bias but the trend remains down as long as 1.34 is intact.
[B]
British Pound / US Dollar[/B]
An expanded flat is nearing completion. 61.8% Fibonacci resistance is at 1.48 and price is testing 50% Fibonacci resistance now at 1.4766. I am expecting a top and reversal.
[B]
Australian Dollar / US Dollar[/B]
As long as .7260 is intact, there is significant bearish potential. The 200 day SMA defends resistance at the key level. Bigger picture, a complex correction may be complete from the October 2008 low.
[B]
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar[/B]
Bigger picture, there are 5 waves down from that .6090, suggesting that the long term trend remains down. Additionally, an expanded flat correction has unfolded from the February 2 low (.4958). Weakness is favored against .5939. Near term, there is potential Fibonacci resistance at .5761.
[B]
US Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
I continue to favor the downside against 98.46. The long term trend remains down and I am looking for a resumption of that trend. Former support is potential resistance at 97.57. Short term bearish targets are at 96 and 94 (near former daily lows).
[B]
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
The USDCAD has plunged through Fibonacci support but the trend remains up as long as price is above 1.1976. Staying above there keeps open the possibility that a wave 4 low is in place within the 5 wave advance from .9055.
[B]
US Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF has most likely resumed its longer term trend towards USD strength. This is my working assumption as long as price is above 1.13. Price is testing a support line drawn off of March and April lows now.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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