[B]Talking Points[/B]
• Japanese Yen: Settles at 114.40 as Nikkei bounces
• Euro: Returns to 1.4200
• Pound: Recaptures 2.04 as carry demand resumes
• Canadian Dollar: Retail Sales on tap
• US Dollar: Calendar empty with only CB speak today
In a sharp contrast to yesterday which saw massive volatility currencies spent a quiet night of trade in both Asia and Europe. EURUSD sett a record high of 1.4349 only to plunge 200 points in a matter of hours as risk aversion overwhelmed the market yesterday. Today, with economic calendars still barren of any meaningful data, the FX markets continued to trade off of equity flows.
Both Asian and European stock markets rebounded in the wake of much better than expected news from Apple computer which reported its earnings after the close of trade in the US. Whether the Apple news will sustain a rally in the US session remains to be seen, but for the time being it created a positive background for equities and stoked the appetite for the carry trade, rallying the euro above the 1.4200 figure, the pound above 2.0400 and the Aussie above .8900.
If the DJIA follows suit and rallies for the rest of the day, the dollar should continue its downward drift against the euro and the pound while rising against the yen in standard carry trade fashion. However, these latest moves appear to us to be corrective in nature and we believe that risk aversion and equity liquidation are not over. The markets are only starting to recognize the slowdown in the US economy and that dynamic is likely to drive stocks lower in the near term. No less an authority than Richard Russell of the Dow Theory newsletter predicts that DJIA will test its 200 moving average near the 13,100 level. Should he be proven right, the high yielders will once again be sold and the yen crosses will likely retest their recent spike bottoms.
In economic news, the Euro-zone Industrial New Orders printed slightly below estimates at 5.1% versus 6.0% forecast, but the month’s prior readings were revised upward. Overall the news indicates that the industrial sector continues to perform well, albeit at a slower pace of growth. The high value of the currency is just starting to crimp investment demand in the region, but the true effects of euro’s strength may not been seen for several months as the record value of the currency begins to weigh on the region’s producers.
