Dollar In Early Stages of Major Uptrend

• Euro 1.3200 Will Be Difficult
• Japanese Yen Turns at 119
• British Pound Weekly Close Below Trendline
• Swiss Franc Trading Near 200 day SMA
• Canadian Dollar Digests Gains
• Australian Dollar Turns Over at Trendline
• New Zealand Dollar Strongest of the Bunch

EURUSD – While one more high above 1.3174 is possible, we maintain that this could be a MAJOR top (the end of an A-B-C correction from 1.2865). Only a break below 1.2865 confirms that wave 3 down is underway. A break of 1.2865 would shift focus to 1.2667, which is where the 1.3370-1.2865 decline would equal the decline from 1.3174. Again, one more high in the 5th of the C wave is possible but don’t expect a rally to push much beyond 1.3174.

USDJPY – We said Friday that “One more low is likely given the RSI extreme in place (240 minute) at 119.17. Rarely does a market turn up (or down for that matter) following a momentum extreme. One more low would create bullish divergence with oscillators and free up the USDJPY for a rally. Still, this pair is nearing at least an interim bottom if not a major one. The 78.6% of 117.97-122.21 at 118.89 may be the level at which the USDJPY ultimately turns higher.” The USDJPY has turned from 118.99 in what could be a resumption of the longer term uptrend. For more on the USDJPY, see

GBPUSD – The longer term wave structure suggests that a major top is in place at 1.9915. In fact, the rally from 1.8090 traced out an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are often fully retraced. A decline below 1.9260 strongly suggests that a top is in place at 1.9915. A weekly close below the short term trendline last week bolsters the shorter term bearish case. In the very short term, Cable may be in a 3rd wave. If this is the case, then measured support doesn’t begin until 1.9351 – which is where the decline from 1.9568 would equal the decline from 1.9680 to 1.9464.

USDCHF – Little has changed regarding the USDCHF. An A-B-C correction from 1.2575 may have ended at 1.2316. Additional support is at the 38.2% of 1.1878-1.2575 at 1.2310. The analysis is the same as the EURUSD (but in the inverse). That is, we are looking for a bottom. The pair has slipped below the 200 day SMA but only by the barest of margins. Very short term resistance is at the former support shelf of 1.2376. A break above there exposes the high from 2/15 at 1.2412.

USDCAD – Friday’s turn lower likely marks the resumption of the long term downtrend. Long term focus is to below 1.0927. There are (or nearly are) 5 waves down from 1.1879 so now is not the time to get short term bearish. A bounce to Fibonacci support could see the 38.2% at 1.1718 or the 50% at 1.1749 (which is also the 4th wave of one lesser degree). The USDCAD may make one more low prior to a rally as small ending diagonal may be forming from 1.1692. Support is former resistance at the 2/15/2006 high at 1.1591.

AUDUSD – We said Friday that “A level to watch is the confluence of the 78.6% of .7941-.7697 / trendline drawn off of the 1/3 and 1/23 highs at .7888.” The AUDUSD reversed at .7889 this morning. This may be the beginning of a longer term downtrend to below .7698. Short term support is at the 2/16 low at .7829. .7889 is critical resistance.

NZDUSD – Kiwi has broken through its resisting trendline today and made a run on the 1/25 high at .7037. Given the proximity of resistance at .7037, upside risk is well defined. Today’s spike low at .6934 is support but a decline below would suggest additional bearish potential.