Latest CFTC Release Dated October 23, 2007:
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over the last 52 weeks. A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. The last 4 weeks of the COT Index are shown because it is just as important to know where the index is coming from. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.
Explanation of Charts:
Commercial % Long (RED): # COMMERCIAL LONG CONTRACTS / (TOTAL # COMMERCIAL CONTRACTS) and measured with a 52 week percentile…commercials are very long at the bottom and very short at the top
Speculative % Long (RED): # SPECULATIVE LONG CONTRACTS / (TOTAL # SPECULATIVE CONTRACTS) and measured with a 52 week percentile …speculators are very long at the top and very short at the bottom
52 Week COT Index (BLUE): see description just below the COT Index table
13 Week COT Index (BLUE): see description just below the COT Index table
US Dollar Index: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 55 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 8. Commercials are neutral and speculators extreme. Until both are extreme, there is no reason to expect a turn. The 52 week COT Index is at 16 (remains bearish) and the 13 week COT Index is at 42 (remains bearish).
EUR: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 53 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 35. Both groups right now are neutral. Until both are extreme, there is no reason to expect a turn. Both the 52 week and 13 week COT indices have turned up and are bullish.
GBP: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 67 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 22. Both groups are neutral. Until both are extreme, there is no reason to expect a turn. Both the 52 week and 13 week COT indices have turned up and are bullish.
CHF: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 16 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 82. Both groups have recently turned from extreme levels, which suggests major turn potential (towards CHF weakness). Both the 52 week and 13 week COT indices have turned down and are bearish.
JPY: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 22 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 75. Both groups recently turned from bullish extremes, therefore positioning is Yen bearish. Both the 52 week and 13 week COT indices have turned down and are bearish.
CAD: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 0 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 94. Both groups are at extreme levels, indicating the high probability of a turn. The 52 week COT Index is at 90 (extreme).
AUD: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 47 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 35. Commercials are neutral and speculators neutral. Until both are extreme, there is no reason to expect a turn. Both the 52 week and 13 week COT indices have turned up and are bullish.