Dollar Loses Handle - Multi Week Dollar High Likely In Place

• Euro Tests 1.3100
• Japanese Yen 121.00 Resistance (USDJPY Support)
• British Pound Takes Out 1.9500
• Swiss Franc 1.2375 Still Key
• Canadian Dollar 5 Waves Up (Down in USDCAD)
• Australian Dollar Rallies In 5 Waves
• New Zealand Dollar Digests Gains

EURUSD – The break above 1.3066 strongly suggests that 1.2876 marked the end of a bearish wave at 1.2865. The decline from 1.3367 is either an A wave or a truncated 1st wave (truncated because the 5th wave did not drop below wave 3). In either case, a countertrend rally to fibo resistance is likely the next significant move. The 61.8% of 1.3367-1.2865 at 1.3177 bears watching as does the 78.6% at 1.3261. In the short term, there are a distinct 5 waves up from 1.2941 to 1.3105, so look for a setback towards the 38.2% at 1.3042 (which also is aligned with former resistance, which should now be support).

USDJPY – We have recently focused on the 5 waves up from 119.96 and mentioned that a corrective decline is probable. “In the event of a decline, look for initial support at the 38.2% of 119.96-121.66 at 121.01. This is also the 4th wave of one lesser degree (2/8 low).” Price slipped just below 121.01 this morning, bottoming at 120.86 before rallying up towards 121.10. There may be more room to the downside though. A decline below 119.97 would possible complete a 3 wave correction from 122.21 (wave A would equal wave C at 119.86). Price has slipped below the 20 day SMA as well.

GBPUSD – We wrote yesterday that “an a-b-c correction from 1.9915 may be nearing an end as there are 5 waves down in the C position (from 1.9750). The 78.6% of 1.9260-1.9915 defends the area where A (1.9915-1.9549) would equal C (from 1.9750) at 1.9380.” Cable has turned higher this morning, stalling at the 2/12 high of 1.9569. 1.9402 must hold for the bullish case suggested by the end of a 3 wave correction at 1.9402 to remain intact. Fibonacci support begins at the 38.2% of 1.9402-1.9568 at 1.9505. Resistance above 1.9569 is the 2/9 high at 1.9605, which is followed by a potential resistance trendline drawn off of the 1/23 and 2/8 highs at 1.9668.

USDCHF – The USDCHF has held 1.2375 (the equivalent level in the EURUSD was 1.3066). A final 5th wave that would complete a 5 wave sequence from 1.1878 is still possible since price remains above 1.2375. The next bullish target is the 1.618 extension of 1.2271 – 1.1878 / 1.2110 at 1.2746. Only a decline below 1.2375 negates the bullish wave implications. Focus would then shift to Fibonacci support of the 1.1878-1.2575 rally, beginning at the 38.2% at 1.2313.

USDCAD – Friday’s turn lower likely marks the resumption of the long term downtrend. Long term focus is to below 1.0927. Since there are 5 waves down from 1.1879 (ending at 1.1659 this morning), now is not the time to get short term bearish. A bounce to Fibonacci support could see the 38.2% at 1.1743 or the 50% at 1.1769 (which is also the 4th wave of one lesser degree). A decline below 1.1645 warrants a breakout strategy.

AUDUSD – The AUDUSD has rallied to and slightly exceeded the 2/9 high at .7827. The breech of .7827 gives scope to additional gains in the medium term. In the short term (next day or so), look for a corrective setback since there are a clear 5 waves up from .7707 to .7833. The 38.2% at .7785 is initial support. Also supporting the bull case is the rally above the 20 day SMA.

NZDUSD – We have concentrated recently on the fact that “Kiwi bounced from where the .7038 decline equals the .7099-.6841 decline. As such, we are left with just a 3 wave correction of equal legs from .7099. This structure is suggestive of a bottoming in NZDUSD (as long as .6769 holds).” The rally to .6932 is impulsive and warrants a bullish bias. Price is currently correcting recent gains and support is nearby at the 38.2% of .6818-.6932 at .6889 and the 61.8% at .6862.