Dollar Majors Mixed but Solid Opportunities Exist

• Euro 1.3262 Key
• Japanese Yen Consolidates
• British Pound Heading Higher then Lower
• Swiss Franc Strong
• Canadian Dollar Slipping
• Australian Dollar Unclear
• New Zealand Dollar Bounces From Trendline


EURUSD – The hourly channel continues to hold up, which does not inspire much confidence in the bearish bias. That, and the fact that this morning’s decline is in just 3 waves, increases upside risk. However, the longer term bearish structure (where we are looking for a C wave to come under 1.2865) remains in place as long as 1.3262 remains intact. A break under 1.3188 would bolster the bearish case.
[B]Key Levels & Technical Indicators

USDJPY[/B] – The USDJPY rally has stalled at the 61.8% of 118.51-115.76 at 117.46 (also the 200 day SMA at 117.63). However, 5 short term waves up from 115.76 indicates bullish potential. Short term support is at 117.01 (today’s low), and a break above 117.60 gives scope to 118.51. If 118.51 holds, then a triangle may be forming. In order to consolidate the sharp drop from 121.66, a triangle scenario is certainly possible.
[B]Key Levels & Technical Indicators

[/B]
GBPUSD – Cable remains in corrective mode (consolidating the 1.9675-1.9184 decline). Yesterday’s sharp rally is indicative of a C wave, which is the final wave in a 3 wave correction. A push above 1.9436 would complete the pattern and give way to a decline that comes under 1.9184. The A and C legs of the correction would be equal at 1.9465 and the 61.8% of 1.9675-1.9184 is at 1.9486. That, level, 1.9465/86 is where we are looking for a top in Cable.
[B]Key Levels & Technical Indicators

[/B]
USDCHF – We mentioned yesterday that “a 5 wave decline is evident from 1.2357 to 1.2213, meaning that the larger trend is now down.” The USDCHF is rolling over from current price, which is the 38.2% of 1.2358-1.2104 at 1.2200. Coming under 1.2157 increases confidence in a bearish outcome and decline below 1.2104. Short term resistance is at the 61.8% of 1.2358-1.2104 at 1.2261.
[B]Key Levels & Technical Indicators

[/B]
USDCAD – We are suspending the longer term bearish outlook due to the impulsive rally off of 1.1679. We wrote yesterday that “the fact that this decline has yet to accelerate lower and the bullish divergence with RSI on the hourly are both causes for concern and a bounce to 1.1739 or higher is suggested near term by the 5 waves down from 1.1820.” A small 5 wave rally from 1.1679 to 1.1765 is evident with the chop lower undoubtedly corrective. Price is now likely to exceed 1.1879 is a 3rd wave and target the 1.2000 figure (61.8% of 1.2734-1.0927 at 1.2041) in coming weeks. Then, we will look for the BIG turn lower. Remaining above 1.1679 keeps the outlook intact.
[B]Key Levels & Technical Indicators

[/B]
AUDUSD – The AUD/USD continues to work higher. Bearish RSI divergence on the hourly is disconcerting to bulls but only a break below .7797 suggests additional bearish potential. Short term support is at today’s low at .7839. A rally above .7897 brings .7950 into focus.
[B] Key Levels & Technical Indicators

[/B]
NZDUSD – Kiwi’s bounce from the short term trendline (drawn off of the 3/6 and 3/7 lows) has extended through the 3/13 low at .6918, which dampens the near term bearish outlook. Still, price is holding below the 20 day SMA, which is just above current price at .6945. Another test of trendline support could lead to a break and new lows below .6719. .6991 is resistance.
[B]Key Levels & Technical Indicators

[/B]
[B]Intra-Day Pivot Points

[/B]
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) – 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 – bullish
0 > – bearish
> 100 – extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish

RSI(14) – 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 – bullish
50 > – bearish
> 70 – overbought
30 > - oversold

MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD – MACD[1])
> 0 – bullish
0 > - bearish

Mom(21) – 21 day Momentum
> 0 – bullish
0 > - bearish

ATR(14) – 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium – 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low – 25th percentile* >
[B]*measured against past 3 months

[/B]