Dollar Makes a Comeback

• Euro Breaks Below 1.3100
• Japanese Yen Potentially Resumes Longer-Term Trend
• British Pound Ascending Triangle
• Swiss Franc Eyeing One Year Trendline
• Canadian Dollar Strengthens, USDCAD to 1.1454?
• Australian Dollar Turns Lower
• New Zealand Dollar Pauses Near Support

EURUSD – The EURUSD is trapped within a triangle, as price has declined from resistance at 1.3191 in recent days as daily CCI has come off from extreme levels. Continued losses for the pair would target the confluence of the supporting trendline and the 78.6% fibo of 1.2865-1.3191 at 1.2933, but 1.2900 serves as a major support/resistance levels, thus it may be very difficult for the pair to drift lower.

USDJPY – The USDJPY surge from 118.99 has continued to barrel on in what could be a resumption of the longer term uptrend, but the pair will first encounter resistance at the 1/29 high of 122.21. Shorter term slides lower for the pair will find support at the 50.0% fibo of 117.98-122.21 at 120.09, as the recent rally looks a bit overextended. For more on the USDJPY long-term picture, see

GBPUSD –As we noted yesterday, “Cable price action, though choppy retains its upward bias for the time being, but the compression of volatility suggests a powerful resolution to direction in the near term.” Price has continued to adhere tightly to the supporting trendline of an ascending triangle, which is typically a bullish formation. Thus, the next move could be a rally towards resistance at the 2/15 high of 1.9680. However, a break below the noted supporting trendline would negate the bullish bias.

USDCHF – A lower Bollinger Band breakout signaled the recent rally from the 2/20 low of 1.2312 and, as we said yesterday, “The action on the 4 hour charts supports the dollar bullish view with a powerful dragonfly reversal candle indicating that the near term sell off may be over.” Price has since continued higher and looks to challenge the 1 year resistance trendline, which currently sits at 1.2521 and falls by 4 points a day. However, declines in USDCHF would test the the recent lows and a supporting trendline which currently stands at 1.2306.

USDCAD – A major bearish engulfing candle on the daily yesterday put CAD bull right back into the drivers seat as the pair broke key support at 1.1620. Only a close above the 1.1716 would invalidate the downward bias. Meanwhile the chart to the downside looks clear to at least 1.1500 with first support coming at the 1.1454 low of 12/21/06.

AUDUSD – Yesterday we noted that “the Aussie has broken the downward trend line demarcated by three lower highs that we pointed out yesterday and now looks to target the 7938 high set on 1/23/07.” The pair petered out at .7920 just shy of our target and has now retraced to the 61.8% Fibo of the up move. A break of the .7875 level would weaken the bull case considerably and the pair may then retest the .7845 bottom from yesterday.

NZDUSD – The Kiwi continues to perform well but most recent price action suggests that the uptrend may be ready for a pause. The pair failed to pull away from its 7034 breakout point and now appears to be retesting support once again. A break here opens the way back to 7000 where a much stronger level of support should provide a strong base for the buyers.