The first week of August is ending with US dollar strength. While possible that this is a key reversal, key levels remain intact. EURUSD support extends to 1.4200 and the trend is up against 1.4000.
Euro / US Dollar
Last week’s break above 1.4340 confirmed that wave v of C is underway towards 1.4720. The trend remains strong to the bull side against 1.4000. I wrote yesterday that “a setback to 1.4200/80 is possible near term.” That correction has taken place and should be nearing completion. Expectations are for a low to form close to current price.
British Pound / US Dollar
Cable’s consolidation since the beginning of June is not as clear as the EURUSD triangle. In fact, the pattern could have been an irregular flat in which wave b exceeds the origin of wave a and wave c fails to extend beyond the origin of wave b. In any case, the GBPUSD should make its way higher as the EURUSD extends above 1.4720. The next measured objective is 1.7250. The pair has dropped to the upper end of its Fibonacci support range of 1.6600-1.6700. Like the EURUSD, a low is expected to form close to current price.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The AUDUSD has broken above its June high, confirming that wave C (as well as the entire rally from the October low) is in its final stages. The AUDUSD may extend as high as the channel resistance line over the next several weeks. Only a decline below .8120 would suggest that a top is in place.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
The NZDUSD is in the same position as the AUDUSD. The break to a 2009 high indicates that wave v of C is underway. Although anticipating a reversal, there is no evidence of one yet. Potential resistance is at .6958. Only a drop below .6467 would suggest that a top is in place.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY has failed to accelerate lower, thus it is more likely that the decline from 101.50 is corrective, just as the rally from 87.10 is corrective. In other words, everything from the 2009 low is a correction and will eventually be retraced, but not before a push above 101.50. I wrote yesterday that “with the last number of weeks’ trading taking place close to the 200 day SMA, an upside break looms on the horizon.” That upside break is underway now as the USDJPY has surged through channel resistance.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
The entire rally from 1.0782 has now been retraced. Additional weakness is expected over the next several weeks in order to complete the decline from 1.1730 and by extension the entire decline from 1.3068. 1.0588 is the next level of potential support (Fibonacci). I wrote yesterday that “drastic divergence with RSI at the recent low suggests additional strength and possibly an outright reversal.” An impulsive rally from the low would be evidence of an outright reversal. Let’s wait and see.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Sticking with the USD bearish count, expectations over the next several weeks are for a thrust lower that ends below 1.0367. Bears are favored against 1.0939 and 1.0037 is a potential target (100% extension of 1.2303-1.0367).
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Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary at DailyFX Forex Stream.
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